MachineDeployment fails to scale up in autoscaler e2e test

[mboersma]

Which jobs are flaking?

There have been two failures recently where a Docker MachineDeployment only scales up to 2 replicas instead of 3 before the timeout is reached.

Which tests are flaking?

capi-e2e-latestk8s-main

Since when has it been flaking?

5/26/2025

Testgrid link

https://prow.k8s.io/view/gs/kubernetes-ci-logs/logs/periodic-cluster-api-e2e-latestk8s-main/1927270770996678656

Reason for failure (if possible)

No response

Anything else we need to know?

No response

Label(s) to be applied

/kind flake

[k8s-ci-robot]

This issue is currently awaiting triage.

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[chrischdi]

/help

[k8s-ci-robot]

@chrischdi:
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[cprivitere]

Here's a k8s-triage search link for finding these: https://storage.googleapis.com/k8s-triage/index.html?pr=1&text=replicas%20should%20match%20expected%20replica&job=.*-cluster-api-.*e2e.*&xjob=.*-provider-.*%7C.*-operator-