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_posts/2016-10-04-IAC_Press-Conf-Transcript.md

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+---
+title: Musk IAC Press Q&A Transcript
+layout: post
+hero: 2016-10-04-iac-hero.jpg
+---
+
+This is the best I can do, I've edited out hesitations for readability's sake, unless they're needed, any words I couldn't get I've marked as [...]. Any words I'm unsure about are also in [square brackets]. My comments are in {Curly braces}.
+
+<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hNlGkqTYsI4?rel=0&amp;controls=0&amp;showinfo=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
+
+00:00
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> Any [enterprise you can imagine] on Mars, things that are, we [take for granted] on Earth as well as things that we [couldn't ...] bring to Mars, so we're [not being/doing anything] specific, our goal is to get people there, we'll need to construct the initial propellant plant to produce [much] propellant on Mars, and so the initial, [obviously] the Mars spaceport and the sort of the beginnings of [a key] central element [of] a Mars base and then thereafter, you know we wanna [... ...]. Um, and we definitely wanna make sure we [guarantee] strength upon the opportunities that people may have to create things on Mars, and [it doesn't look like] SpaceX is just gonna do that then they [they'll] be less willing to do it so we want to try and create a conduit to Mars to enable people to do an incredible [number of] things there. And just [to be specific] it would [be how we made California] really, um, we'd like to have it be that way for Mars. I think there is, um, I'm not too worried about safety on the way there from radiation, I think that's basically is {Gets cut off by question}
+
+01:26
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 1:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> [...] radiation but also micro-gravity, and the life support systems. Is that allo [included] in the Architecture [...]
+
+01:34
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> Yeah yeah, I think those are potentially solved problems, we've been able to have [absolute/astronaut involvement] for over a year and this is a three month [journey], really I think that's more or less a solved problem, you could do it in a more [mass ...] way, it's not a [...] new technology [keeping people alive] in space. I would say that's fairly straightforward. I'd say the challenge really is getting there, and the huge challenge is getting is [taking if from being], erm, the cost [low] enough people to make it a self sustaining civilisation, that's the [monumental] challenge.
+
+02:26
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 2 (Reuters?):
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> You're doing a [big/great] service coming over here, I wanted to ask you first about if funding this mission would affect any of [your] holdings and [... {mic gets dropped} ...] assets [...] and if you could clarify a little bit about [the] time to get to Mars, I think I heard you say 90 days but [for this flight]? Thanks.
+
+02:50
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> Well I mean the [interplanetary] passage time is pretty straightforward, it just depends on your departure velocity [...], the synchronisation event only occurs [every] [26] months, every 26 months there's approximately a 6 month window [where] you can do a Mars transit, which kinda makes sense because Mars has, takes [...{22.5}] months to go around the Sun, and you can basically transit to Mars when you're in the right quadrant, you can't go [when] it's on the other side of the Sun, and the faster you exit Earth the quicker you can got to Mars so the low energy transition to Mars, or transit to Mars would be [6 to 7] months, that would be [dV/maybe] 1.5km/s departure velocity, at 6km/s you can drop that down to, so roughly 3 months, and over time I expect that number will come down to [perhaps] under a month, [you need a lot of] kinetic energy to do that and to then [obviously high] energy [aero]breaking is substantial so I [...] [any service to Mars] [...] quite energy expensive.
+
+04:12
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 2:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> Thanks, and then [finally] your personal investment in this, and you're chairman Tesla, SolarCity what do you [...] if anything [to fund it]?
+
+04:22
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> I can't comment on public company [...] because you know the [conflict] of that would be quite severe, [...] at some point in the future, not immediately, the reason that I'm accumulating personal assets in order to fund [...] becoming a multiplanetary species. The sort of things I'm funding as well, [...] healthcare, environmental issues, and education but, um, I mean AI [safety], but really the primary [aim], the thing that will resolve [non-...] resources is the [establishment] of a colony [...] on Mars. I have no reason to [accumulate] resources beyond that
+
+05:12
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk (or Moderator):
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> Can I ask everyone to [limit it] to one question, Than you.
+
+05:15
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 3 (BBC):
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+{Even as a Brit this question was really confusing}
+
+> One question, [..] of the BBC, see [you are plotting] to go, you talk about your timeline [launching] to Mars into early 2020, are you going to launch any sort of website where [each can] come and register, maybe like one of Mars[One] you know [it's really interest] so [if it then doesn't happen] so [people think "Oh I can't do anything" they can get really] engaged?
+
+05:44
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+> I think when we get closer to actually sending people to Mars, [we're gonna wanna be able to get] some sense of what the demand level is, and you know people could put down a small down-payment on a trip to Mars, but we want to get pretty close to the actual trips and be highly confident that we [...] within [reason] the time-frame before we would do that, certainly two or three years before an expected launch [date].
+
+06:21
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 3 (BBC):
+
+{Asks to clarify the last sentence of Musk's response}
+
+06:31
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+
+> Basically two or three years before an expected launch. We wanna make sure we know what it actually is going to cost and the time [certainly] a year or two [before] taking, accepting advance orders.
+
+06:48
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 4:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> Can you talk a little bit more about the cryogenic on-orbit refuelling, [what're] the technical challenges with that and do you have plans to [... for] that in the future?
+
+07:13
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> [...] It's essentially about having to spacecraft, ahem, dock, mate and exchange fluids (certainly a joke in there somewhere). [We've] already docked with the space station, and [or technically berthing,] it'll be an autonomous docking, probably an autonomous docking capability around the end of next year, and so having fully autonomous docking capability basically gives you on-orbit [refilling]. I [...] refuelling, I use the word refilling because there's 3 and a half times as much oxygen as there is fuel and the [oxy fuel ratio ... so really it's] reoxing {sic} [rather than] refuelling, that's actually what it amounts to. Actually I think that's going to be a relatively straightforward element, if we can dock with the space station which is a very complex docking manoeuvre, the natural [requirements] for [space] docking then having [...] docking is not too much of a [call].
+
+08:30
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 5 (PBS):
+
+> What're the obstacles you can't control that you need to be able to overcome to accomplish this goal?
+
+08:38
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> [Stuff] that I can't control? Well I guess there's always space [and fortune]. Really the pace of progress on Mars depends on the pace of progress of SpaceX to work [...] achieve a good launch [rate], our success rate with Falcon 9 is roughly 93%, it's not out of [...] with some launch vehicles, it needs to be a lot better, and we, the Falcon Heavy the launch timeline, schedule to, and make sure that we [...] [that we've got sufficient cashflow to] fund launch [properly], and of course I will [double ...] personally. There's a big committee of individuals who want to do that, and [...] some point in there future there may be a, well I have no idea if there will be but there might be a NASA [COTS] programme, or something like that, [...]necessary really, this is ultimately about maximising probability that the future is good and minimising existential risk, so I think [whatever means] increases that probability is good. So I think fundamental [technical] obstacles to what we've proposed [...] [a lot of quality engineering]
+
+10:30
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 6:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> [....] You propose a manned mission to Mars could arrive in 2025, is that still [...] and would it be on the Falcon Heavy rocket or on the New Rocket that you've presented today and then how [fast will you build up to that vision] of having 100 people [going] to Mars?
+
+10:58
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> For sending people to Mars [it] definitely would be Interplanetary Transport System would be what we'd send people with, it could technically be done with a bunch of Falcon Heavy launches but you really wouldn't want to travel to Mars in a Dragon, the interior volume is roughly equivalent to that of a large car, so 3 months is a long time to spend on a car, and we [really] need to transport a lot of equipment there. So the first mission with people on it would [sort of] be the Heart of Gold Spaceship, so from a [time-based] standpoint we aspire to launch in late 2024 with an arrival in 2025, but that's optimistic [so I would stress] that that's aspiration and within the realm of possibility, but a lot of things need to go right. That said I don't think we'll [...] beyond that [...]
+
+
+12:22
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 7:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+> Leading up to today there was a lot of anticipation and then after the September 1st failure you started hearing concerns about saying you should be focused on Falcon 9 and commercial crew and getting astronauts to LEO and the station {ISS} [...] coming up. I wonder if you could address those and what your response is to all that?
+
+12:48
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> I haven't actually [...]... I mean, less that 5% of SpaceX's resources are working on the Interplanetary Transport System, so it is very much a secondary or tertiary priority to [understanding] exactly what happened on the last mission {AMOS6}, last [...] flight, or almost flight, the most taxing and difficult thing, um yeah. It would be incorrect to say it's anything other than our absolute top priority to understand exactly what went wrong there and what we can do to prevent anything like that in the future. [We've] eliminated all the obvious possibilities for what occurred there so what remains are the less probable answers. But anyway this is the [small gains] on a long road. There will probably be other failures in the future, and we've not lost a single contract as a result of the it, people in the launch business understand that is something happens with SpaceX it gets, I dunno, 100 times more press than if another rocket fails. Maybe 1000. And so the public tends to think only our rocket fails but actually lots of rockets fail.
+
+14:27
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 8 (New York Times):
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> [You've committed ...] $10Billion [before tax] that includes [...] and could you describe what sort of public private [...] you're envisioning to help pay for it, or are you hoping for a NASA contract?
+
+14:44
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> Um yeah, when I founded SpaceX I had no expectation of any government contracts, I [funded] SpaceX with entirely my own money, [I had] about $180Million from selling PayPal to Ebay, [approximately] $100Million went into SpaceX, $70Million went to Tesla, $10Million to SolarCity, [...] everything actually but uh I expected the most likely outcome was failure, originally I thought I would spend [$50Million] on SpaceX and have $20Million left over but then [I didn't want to see my baby die] so I put all in. The I [...] somehow I [...] money by various arseholes out there, really, so... NASA is our most significant customer, we do about [20 of our launches] but 3/4 of our launches are commercial. In the future, there may be a NASA contract, there may not be, I don't know. If there is that's a good thing, if there's not probably not a good thing, because there's [larger issues than space] here, are we humans gonna become a multiplanetary species or not? Not [pedestrian{?}] questions of is it public or private or what percentage of [.....] small and [...] questions.
+
+16:37
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 9 (Aviation Week):
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> We haven't heard much from [your side] about the near-term missions to Mars you're working on, using the Dragon 2 or Red Dragon [...] I wonder if you could walk us through what you hope to accomplish with these missions? How in [the ...] you expect I guess one per planetary opportunity and wether, um, you know if you'll make payload space available to NASA or other [companies/countries]?
+
+17:09
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> Really we wanna use Dragon, Dragon 2 as [a] pathfinder, if it's anything to go by. We need to sort out interplanetary navigation, [deep space] communication, high bandwidth, uh, there's currently no high-bandwidth deep-space communication system, and then entering the Mars atmosphere, and landing... What's landing like if you're heavy - I mean, Dragon will be about 10 times heavier than anything that's landed on Mars before, and it will land with thrusters close to the surface. So Curiosity they [...] surviving [with this hovering thing], there's no way to do that with a giant Spaceship. [There's key questions like] if you're coming in hot and fast, then you [...] what kind of dust and rocks do you throw up? The Mars [surface is actually] pretty hard, how well does it hold up to rocket blasts? [We all] have questions. I wouldn't give the first Dragon landing high odds, maybe [50%], maybe 50%. The history of landing on Mars is not a good one, [actually for] those familiar with Mars. For a first timer I'd say pretty good - [if we have] a 50% likelihood I'd say that's pretty good. We're just [...] all the issues, sending them on every opportunity, maybe sending two in 2020 and then also we wanna find out what's the easiest way to get water - because water's [useful] for doing the [local] propellant production. Carbon Dioxide is easy, it's in the atmosphere. So we're looking to make sure the dust filters, you can clean the dust filters [so CO_2 should be easy]. Getting the water, much harder. There's ice all over Mars, but in wat form, how dirty is the Ice, how much energy do you need to use to extract the water, because there's only a small water percentage in the [...] of the regolith, you're [looking at] more energy to heat it, to purify it so [... ...]
+
+20:00
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Question Asker 10:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> I noticed on [...] options list there there was no mention of Satellites, you've spoken before about a SpaceX satellite constellation that might provide revenue, a cash flow for this or other missions. Is that still part of the SpaceX plan?
+
+20:17
+{:.muted.smaller}
+Musk:
+{:.small-caps.strong}
+
+> [We] have some ideas about a satellite constellation but now's not the time to talk about them I think [we'll reserve that] for a future event. There's certainly a lot of opportunity there, [they'll certainly] be very helpful in funding a Mars [city].
+