Exponential or not? I tried to make a simple plot, and data fit

[jgehrcke]

Thanks for the data provided here.
A natural question is whether the count of confirmed cases grows exponentially or not.
To that end I have made a quick toolkit based on this data set.

Example: https://gehrcke.de/covid19/plot-germany.html

See https://github.com/jgehrcke/covid-19-analysis -- you can clone that and then do e.g. make plot-spain to get this HTML file with plots for Spain... Italy, USA, etc can also be done. Again, all this thanks to this great data set here 🚀

It's nice to collaborate!

[valeriupredoi]

Very cool! I have done the same sort of analysis, see here https://github.com/valeriupredoi/COVID-19_LINEAR

[jgehrcke]

I have done the same sort of analysis

very nice, it's what I wish everyone would actually confirm, do, look at, before they talk "exponential". I mean, yeah. I think we (the two of us, and probably some others) have found that things actually are evolving pretty much ideal-exponentially in certain places. Doh.

[valeriupredoi]

cheers, mate! It's almost copycat - the exponential rates are 0.25-0.30 day-1 and very similar to what happened in China 4-5 days after the quarantine started

This of course is a rough approach but it does give insight in the actual spread; not to mention that we, by grace, we'll be the first to see the effects of various quarantines, even before the media knows about it 😁 - well, I am hoping the UK will get to grips and instate one! Cheers and stay safe 🍺