From 239a81a2512ee250ac0d53d73afa128533550153 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Florent Tapponnier <160007691+Flotapponnier@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 4 Aug 2026 10:43:20 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] fix: redirect polymarket-resolution-delay to pm-resolution-delay, fix answer bench refs --- answers/best-prediction-market-for-politics.yml | 16 ++++++++-------- answers/best-prediction-market-for-sports.yml | 16 ++++++++-------- .../how-long-does-polymarket-take-to-resolve.yml | 12 ++++++------ .../polymarket-vs-kalshi-resolution-speed.yml | 4 ++-- next.config.ts | 14 ++++++++++++++ 5 files changed, 38 insertions(+), 24 deletions(-) diff --git a/answers/best-prediction-market-for-politics.yml b/answers/best-prediction-market-for-politics.yml index e843c3cb..f2d66c4a 100644 --- a/answers/best-prediction-market-for-politics.yml +++ b/answers/best-prediction-market-for-politics.yml @@ -1,12 +1,12 @@ slug: best-prediction-market-for-politics question: "Which prediction market is best for politics and elections?" -benchmark: polymarket-resolution-delay +benchmark: pm-resolution-delay status: live short_answer: | Polymarket carries the highest global volume on political and election markets, with the largest open interest in the cohort. Politics markets have the longest resolution delay on Polymarket at - {{p50:politics}} median, because they wait for authoritative sources before resolving. For US users, + {{p50:polymarket-politics}} median, because they wait for authoritative sources before resolving. For US users, Kalshi is the regulated option with political event contracts. Metaculus is free and tracks calibration but is not real-money. @@ -24,10 +24,10 @@ intro: | The tradeoff for political markets is resolution delay. OpenChainBench measures Polymarket resolution delay live by category, and politics markets have the longest median delay in the - cohort at {{p50:politics}}. Politics resolution is slow for two reasons: outcomes often wait on + cohort at {{p50:polymarket-politics}}. Politics resolution is slow for two reasons: outcomes often wait on authoritative sources (AP election calls, official certifications, court rulings), and UMA's dispute rate is highest on political markets because ambiguous or contested outcomes attract - challengers. A p99 of {{p99:politics}} means the slowest 1% of political markets takes much + challengers. A p99 of {{p99:polymarket-politics}} means the slowest 1% of political markets takes much longer than the median. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and covers US political events: congressional elections, presidential @@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ intro: | points), so there is no real financial stake and no CLOB to trade in and out of. methodology: | - OpenChainBench measures resolution delay on the polymarket-resolution-delay bench, which listens + OpenChainBench measures resolution delay on the pm-resolution-delay bench, which listens to UMA CTF adapter events on Polygon and records the time between the first onchain outcome proposal (ProposePrice) and the onchain resolution (payout claim availability). Markets are classified by category (politics, sports, crypto, other) using Polymarket's Gamma API metadata. @@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ methodology: | limitations: - "Politics resolution delay is measured from the first onchain proposal, not from when the political event occurs. For elections, the gap between voting day and first UMA proposal can span days or weeks, depending on when the outcome is officially called. The measured figures are a lower bound on total wait." - "The UMA dispute rate is highest on political markets. A disputed political market waits for UMA token holder voting, which takes days. The p99 column captures this tail; the median does not." - - "Kalshi political market resolution delay is not yet in the polymarket-resolution-delay harness. The bench currently measures Polymarket only. Kalshi settlement is offchain through the exchange's own settlement process." + - "Kalshi political market resolution delay is not yet in the pm-resolution-delay harness. The bench currently measures Polymarket only. Kalshi settlement is offchain through the exchange's own settlement process." - "US access to Polymarket's international exchange is restricted following a 2022 CFTC settlement. US users should use Kalshi for regulated real-money political market trading." faq: @@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ faq: - q: "Can US users trade election prediction markets?" a: "On Kalshi, yes. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and explicitly covers US political events including congressional races, presidential elections and policy markets. On Polymarket's international exchange, no: US IPs are geoblocked following a 2022 CFTC settlement. Polymarket US (QCX), launched December 2025, may offer political event contracts but initially launched with a limited set. For US political market trading today, Kalshi is the primary regulated option." - q: "Why do political markets take longer to resolve than sports markets?" - a: "Two reasons. First, outcomes wait on authoritative sources: Polymarket markets typically do not resolve until an authoritative call is made (AP election call, official certification, court ruling). This can take hours to weeks after the event. Second, the UMA dispute rate is higher on political markets because contested outcomes attract challengers during the dispute window. Both factors extend the median resolution delay relative to sports markets. OpenChainBench measures this live: the current politics median is {{p50:politics}} versus sports at {{p50:sports}}." + a: "Two reasons. First, outcomes wait on authoritative sources: Polymarket markets typically do not resolve until an authoritative call is made (AP election call, official certification, court ruling). This can take hours to weeks after the event. Second, the UMA dispute rate is higher on political markets because contested outcomes attract challengers during the dispute window. Both factors extend the median resolution delay relative to sports markets. OpenChainBench measures this live: the current politics median is {{p50:polymarket-politics}} versus sports at {{p50:polymarket-sports}}." - q: "Polymarket vs Kalshi for politics, which is better?" a: "On market depth and variety: Polymarket. On US regulatory access: Kalshi. Polymarket has deeper books and higher open interest on major political events, including international elections Kalshi does not cover. Kalshi is the compliant option for US users and covers major US political events. Resolution delay is likely similar in magnitude but through architecturally different systems: Polymarket is onchain via UMA, Kalshi is offchain via the exchange's settlement process." @@ -72,4 +72,4 @@ related: - is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us seo_title: "Best prediction market for politics 2026: Polymarket vs Kalshi" -seo_description: "Polymarket leads on political market open interest and variety. Politics resolution runs {{p50:politics}} median on OCB's live bench. For US users, Kalshi is the regulated option." +seo_description: "Polymarket leads on political market open interest and variety. Politics resolution runs {{p50:polymarket-politics}} median on OCB's live bench. For US users, Kalshi is the regulated option." diff --git a/answers/best-prediction-market-for-sports.yml b/answers/best-prediction-market-for-sports.yml index f8735397..ce4261f5 100644 --- a/answers/best-prediction-market-for-sports.yml +++ b/answers/best-prediction-market-for-sports.yml @@ -1,11 +1,11 @@ slug: best-prediction-market-for-sports question: "Which prediction market is best for sports?" -benchmark: polymarket-resolution-delay +benchmark: pm-resolution-delay status: live short_answer: | For non-US users, Polymarket has the deepest sports books and the widest market variety. Sports - resolution on Polymarket currently runs {{p50:sports}} median from first onchain proposal. For US + resolution on Polymarket currently runs {{p50:polymarket-sports}} median from first onchain proposal. For US users, Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated real-money option with NFL, NBA and other sports coverage. Manifold has sports markets but is play-money. @@ -34,12 +34,12 @@ intro: | Resolution speed matters for sports because the gap between the final whistle and your payout arrival is all dead time. OpenChainBench measures Polymarket sports resolution delay live. - Current median from first onchain proposal to payout availability is {{p50:sports}}, and the p99 - sits at {{p99:sports}}. Disputes are rare on sports markets but do happen on contested finishes and + Current median from first onchain proposal to payout availability is {{p50:polymarket-sports}}, and the p99 + sits at {{p99:polymarket-sports}}. Disputes are rare on sports markets but do happen on contested finishes and stat corrections, and a dispute extends the wait from hours to days. methodology: | - OpenChainBench measures resolution delay on the polymarket-resolution-delay bench, which listens + OpenChainBench measures resolution delay on the pm-resolution-delay bench, which listens to UMA CTF adapter events on Polygon and records the time between the first onchain outcome proposal (ProposePrice) and the onchain resolution (payout claim availability). Markets are classified by category (sports, politics, crypto, other) using Polymarket's Gamma API metadata. @@ -50,7 +50,7 @@ methodology: | limitations: - "Polymarket sports resolution delay is measured from the first onchain proposal, not from when the game ends. The time between the final whistle and the first UMA proposal is offchain and not observable onchain, so measured figures are a lower bound on total wait time." - "Sports resolution disputes are rare but real. A contested finish, stat correction, or late score review can trigger a UMA dispute, which extends resolution from hours to days. The clean-path median does not represent disputed market experience." - - "Kalshi sports coverage and liquidity are measured separately and are not yet included in the polymarket-resolution-delay bench. The resolution delay comparison between Polymarket and Kalshi on sports markets requires the Kalshi harness, which is in development." + - "Kalshi sports coverage and liquidity are measured separately and are not yet included in the pm-resolution-delay bench. The resolution delay comparison between Polymarket and Kalshi on sports markets requires the Kalshi harness, which is in development." - "US access restrictions are regulatory context, not a quality judgment. Polymarket's international exchange being geoblocked for US users reflects a 2022 CFTC settlement, not platform quality. For US users, Kalshi is the regulated alternative." faq: @@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ faq: - q: "Are there NFL prediction markets on Polymarket?" a: "Yes, Polymarket has NFL markets including game winner markets, over/under total points, playoff bracket markets and Super Bowl winner futures. NFL markets are among the highest volume on Polymarket during the season. Note that Polymarket's international exchange is geoblocked for US IPs following a 2022 CFTC settlement. US users should use Kalshi for NFL markets, which covers similar NFL events with CFTC-regulated access." - q: "How fast does Polymarket resolve sports markets?" - a: "OpenChainBench measures sports resolution delay live on the polymarket-resolution-delay bench. The current median from first onchain proposal to payout availability is {{p50:sports}}. The p99 sits at {{p99:sports}}. The clock starts at the first UMA outcome proposal, not when the game ends. Add the offchain gap between final whistle and first proposal (typically minutes to hours) for total wait time from event end to payout." + a: "OpenChainBench measures sports resolution delay live on the pm-resolution-delay bench. The current median from first onchain proposal to payout availability is {{p50:polymarket-sports}}. The p99 sits at {{p99:polymarket-sports}}. The clock starts at the first UMA outcome proposal, not when the game ends. Add the offchain gap between final whistle and first proposal (typically minutes to hours) for total wait time from event end to payout." - q: "Can US users use Polymarket for sports?" a: "Polymarket's international exchange geoblocked US IP addresses following a 2022 CFTC settlement. Using a VPN to access it from the US violates Polymarket's terms of service. Polymarket US (QCX), a separate CFTC-regulated entity, launched in December 2025 with a limited set of event contracts. For a broader regulated US sports prediction market, Kalshi covers major league sports with documented API access and full CFTC oversight." @@ -70,4 +70,4 @@ related: - polymarket-fees-explained seo_title: "Best prediction market for sports 2026: Polymarket vs Kalshi" -seo_description: "Polymarket leads on sports liquidity ({{p50:sports}} median resolution). For US users, Kalshi is the regulated option with NFL/NBA coverage. Full comparison by OpenChainBench." +seo_description: "Polymarket leads on sports liquidity ({{p50:polymarket-sports}} median resolution). For US users, Kalshi is the regulated option with NFL/NBA coverage. Full comparison by OpenChainBench." diff --git a/answers/how-long-does-polymarket-take-to-resolve.yml b/answers/how-long-does-polymarket-take-to-resolve.yml index 2e83551a..e7ef0120 100644 --- a/answers/how-long-does-polymarket-take-to-resolve.yml +++ b/answers/how-long-does-polymarket-take-to-resolve.yml @@ -1,12 +1,12 @@ slug: how-long-does-polymarket-take-to-resolve question: "How long does Polymarket take to resolve a market?" short_answer: | - Measured onchain, the median Polymarket market currently resolves {{p50:all-markets}} after the first outcome proposal reaches UMA's oracle, with the slowest 1% taking {{p99:all-markets}} or more. The clock starts at the proposal, not when the real world event ends, so the total wait you experience is at least these figures. Winning shares are redeemable immediately after onchain resolution. + Measured onchain, the median Polymarket market currently resolves {{p50:polymarket-all}} after the first outcome proposal reaches UMA's oracle, with the slowest 1% taking {{p99:polymarket-all}} or more. The clock starts at the proposal, not when the real world event ends, so the total wait you experience is at least these figures. Winning shares are redeemable immediately after onchain resolution. -benchmark: polymarket-resolution-delay +benchmark: pm-resolution-delay intro: | - The number that circulates on social media, and gets repeated by language models, is that 93 percent of Polymarket markets resolve within 2 hours. That figure has no published methodology, and the fields in Polymarket's own Gamma API cannot produce it: closedTime is written at the moment of resolution, so measuring from it always returns zero, and endDate is a scheduled buffer most markets beat. This page reports the delay that can actually be observed. OpenChainBench runs a listener on Polygon that follows Polymarket's UMA CTF adapters and the optimistic oracle they call, and records the wall clock time between the block containing the first outcome proposal and the block containing the resolution, for every resolved market. The answer is not one number. Sports markets currently resolve at {{p50:sports}} median, crypto price markets at {{p50:crypto}}, and politics markets at {{p50:politics}}, because each category runs different UMA verification windows. Disputes route through UMA token holder voting and push the wait from hours to days. The live table on the benchmark page also shows the pending backlog: markets past their scheduled end date still waiting for an onchain resolution, which is the queue a bettor waiting on a payout actually feels. + The number that circulates on social media, and gets repeated by language models, is that 93 percent of Polymarket markets resolve within 2 hours. That figure has no published methodology, and the fields in Polymarket's own Gamma API cannot produce it: closedTime is written at the moment of resolution, so measuring from it always returns zero, and endDate is a scheduled buffer most markets beat. This page reports the delay that can actually be observed. OpenChainBench runs a listener on Polygon that follows Polymarket's UMA CTF adapters and the optimistic oracle they call, and records the wall clock time between the block containing the first outcome proposal and the block containing the resolution, for every resolved market. The answer is not one number. Sports markets currently resolve at {{p50:polymarket-sports}} median, crypto price markets at {{p50:polymarket-crypto}}, and politics markets at {{p50:polymarket-politics}}, because each category runs different UMA verification windows. Disputes route through UMA token holder voting and push the wait from hours to days. The live table on the benchmark page also shows the pending backlog: markets past their scheduled end date still waiting for an onchain resolution, which is the queue a bettor waiting on a payout actually feels. methodology: | A listener follows Polymarket's post migration UMA CTF adapters on Polygon (QuestionInitialized, QuestionResolved, QuestionReset) and the optimistic oracle they call (ProposePrice, DisputePrice). For every resolved market the recorded delay is the time between the block containing the first outcome proposal and the block containing the resolution, read from block timestamps, so resolution granularity is Polygon's roughly 2 second block time. Markets are joined to Polymarket's Gamma catalogue by questionID and classified into sports, politics, crypto or other. Disputed markets land in a separate series so the dispute penalty stays visible without polluting the clean path percentiles. Quantiles come from a cumulative histogram over the listener's window, refreshed continuously. @@ -20,13 +20,13 @@ limitations: faq: - q: "How long after a game ends does Polymarket pay out?" - a: "Sports markets currently resolve at a median of {{p50:sports}} from the first onchain outcome proposal. Add the time between the final whistle and the moment someone proposes the outcome to UMA's oracle, which happens offchain once the result is official and is not measurable onchain. Sports is also where nearly all disputes happen (contested endings, stat corrections), and a dispute moves the wait from minutes or hours into days of UMA voting. Once the market resolves onchain, winning shares are redeemable immediately." + a: "Sports markets currently resolve at a median of {{p50:polymarket-sports}} from the first onchain outcome proposal. Add the time between the final whistle and the moment someone proposes the outcome to UMA's oracle, which happens offchain once the result is official and is not measurable onchain. Sports is also where nearly all disputes happen (contested endings, stat corrections), and a dispute moves the wait from minutes or hours into days of UMA voting. Once the market resolves onchain, winning shares are redeemable immediately." - q: "Do 93 percent of Polymarket markets resolve within 2 hours?" a: "OpenChainBench could not reproduce that figure, and the public data cannot produce it: Gamma's closedTime equals the resolution timestamp by construction, and endDate is a scheduled buffer most markets beat. Measured from the first onchain proposal to resolution on Polygon, the within 2 hours share is published live on the benchmark page and has run materially below 93 percent since measurement began. Treat any resolution speed claim without a stated anchor and methodology as unfalsifiable." - q: "How long does a disputed Polymarket market take to resolve?" a: "Days rather than hours. A dispute on UMA's optimistic oracle resets the question and routes it to a vote of UMA token holders, replacing the normal verification window with a voting period measured in days. Disputes are rare, and the live dispute counter on the benchmark page tracks the measured rate, but when one lands on a market you hold, the clean path medians on this page no longer apply. Disputed markets are recorded in a separate series precisely so they cannot hide inside the headline number." - q: "Which Polymarket markets resolve the fastest?" - a: "Crypto price markets, at a median of {{p50:crypto}}. Their outcomes are machine checkable against price feeds the moment the window closes, so proposals arrive promptly and short verification windows suffice. Sports sit in the middle at {{p50:sports}} and dominate resolution volume. Politics markets run the long end at {{p50:politics}}, because outcomes often wait on an authoritative source and verification windows are conservative on markets carrying the largest open interest." + a: "Crypto price markets, at a median of {{p50:polymarket-crypto}}. Their outcomes are machine checkable against price feeds the moment the window closes, so proposals arrive promptly and short verification windows suffice. Sports sit in the middle at {{p50:polymarket-sports}} and dominate resolution volume. Politics markets run the long end at {{p50:polymarket-politics}}, because outcomes often wait on an authoritative source and verification windows are conservative on markets carrying the largest open interest." related: - polymarket-vs-kalshi-resolution-speed @@ -37,5 +37,5 @@ related: - is-polymarket-safe seo_title: "How long does Polymarket take to resolve? Measured onchain" -seo_description: "Median Polymarket resolution is {{p50:all-markets}} from first outcome proposal to onchain payout, p99 {{p99:all-markets}}. Sports vs crypto vs politics, disputes and the pending backlog, measured live from Polygon." +seo_description: "Median Polymarket resolution is {{p50:polymarket-all}} from first outcome proposal to onchain payout, p99 {{p99:polymarket-all}}. Sports vs crypto vs politics, disputes and the pending backlog, measured live from Polygon." status: live diff --git a/answers/polymarket-vs-kalshi-resolution-speed.yml b/answers/polymarket-vs-kalshi-resolution-speed.yml index 04124175..01355d22 100644 --- a/answers/polymarket-vs-kalshi-resolution-speed.yml +++ b/answers/polymarket-vs-kalshi-resolution-speed.yml @@ -1,9 +1,9 @@ slug: polymarket-vs-kalshi-resolution-speed question: "Polymarket vs Kalshi, which resolves prediction markets faster?" short_answer: | - OpenChainBench measures Polymarket resolution delay directly onchain on Polygon: median across sports, politics and crypto categories is in the tens of minutes today, with crypto markets fastest and politics slowest by a wide margin. Kalshi settlement is offchain through a CFTC-registered exchange and is not yet in the harness; the venue-versus-venue head-to-head on this page will populate as soon as Kalshi settlement events are ingested. Live numbers per category at openchainbench.com/benchmarks/polymarket-resolution-delay. + OpenChainBench measures Polymarket resolution delay directly onchain on Polygon: median across sports, politics and crypto categories is in the tens of minutes today, with crypto markets fastest and politics slowest by a wide margin. Kalshi settlement is offchain through a CFTC-registered exchange and is not yet in the harness; the venue-versus-venue head-to-head on this page will populate as soon as Kalshi settlement events are ingested. Live numbers per category at openchainbench.com/benchmarks/pm-resolution-delay. -benchmark: polymarket-resolution-delay +benchmark: pm-resolution-delay intro: | Prediction market comparison articles publish rack rate resolution times ("Polymarket resolves in minutes") without measuring the tail. In practice, resolution speed depends on the venue's oracle stack, the category of the market and the dispute window. Polymarket runs on UMA's optimistic oracle with a variable liveness window; Kalshi settles through a CFTC-registered exchange oracle with fixed settlement rails. This page answers the head-to-head every prediction market trader eventually cares about at payout time: on the same market outcome trigger, from event confirmation to onchain payout on Polymarket or to account credit on Kalshi, which venue is faster and by how much. OpenChainBench measures both venues from their own settlement events, breaks out sports, politics and crypto categories separately, and publishes the ranked distribution live. diff --git a/next.config.ts b/next.config.ts index ea12e4b3..cf1c571b 100644 --- a/next.config.ts +++ b/next.config.ts @@ -248,6 +248,20 @@ const nextConfig: NextConfig = { destination: "/benchmarks/wallet-labels-coverage/gram", permanent: true, }, + // polymarket-resolution-delay was an early bench slug drafted in a + // worktree but never merged. Answer pages and inbound links used the + // old slug; 308 to the live bench (pm-resolution-delay) so rank + // signal consolidates and pages stop 404-ing. + { + source: "/benchmarks/polymarket-resolution-delay", + destination: "/benchmarks/pm-resolution-delay", + permanent: true, + }, + { + source: "/benchmarks/polymarket-resolution-delay/:path*", + destination: "/benchmarks/pm-resolution-delay/:path*", + permanent: true, + }, ...chainRedirects, ...rpcClusterRedirects, ];