Permalink
Cannot retrieve contributors at this time
# | |
# Vaporware.R, 3 Sep 20 | |
# Data from: | |
# PC-Letter's Vapor list | |
# via | |
# Truth or Consequences: {An} Analysis of Vaporware and New Product Announcements | |
# Barry L. Bayus and Sanjay Jain and Ambar G. Rao | |
# | |
# Example from: | |
# Evidence-based Software Engineering: based on the publicly available data | |
# Derek M. Jones | |
# | |
# TAG product_vaporware vaporware_promised vaporware_actual | |
source("ESEUR_config.r") | |
pal_col=rainbow(2) | |
# email information from Barry Bayus: | |
# ANNOUNC date of the first product preannouncement | |
# INTRO_DA date the product was actually launched | |
# T1_T0 months between preannouncement and promised date of availability | |
# T2_T1 months between promised available date and actual launch date | |
# C_VAPOR is just the sum of T0_T1 and T2_T1 | |
vapor=read.csv(paste0(ESEUR_dir, "economics/Vaporware.csv.xz"), as.is=TRUE) | |
vapor$ANNOUN=as.Date(vapor$ANNOUN, format="%d-%b-%Y") | |
vapor$INTRO_DA=as.Date(vapor$INTRO_DA, format="%d-%b-%Y") | |
pos_vapor=subset(vapor, T2_T1 >= 0) | |
# table(pos_vapor$T2_T1) | |
# table(pos_vapor$T1_T0) | |
# plot(vapor$ANNOUN, vapor$INTRO_DA) | |
plot(pos_vapor$T1_T0, pos_vapor$T2_T1, log="x", col=pal_col[2], | |
yaxs="i", | |
ylim=c(0, max(pos_vapor$T2_T1)), | |
xlab="Promised-Preannouncement (months)", | |
ylab="Actual-Promised (months)\n" | |
) | |
lines(loess.smooth(pos_vapor$T1_T0, pos_vapor$T2_T1, span=0.3), col=loess_col) | |
v_mod=glm(T2_T1 ~ T1_T0+I(T1_T0^0.5), data=pos_vapor, family=poisson) | |
# summary(v_mod) | |
x_vals=1:25 | |
pred=predict(v_mod, newdata=data.frame(T1_T0=x_vals), type="response") | |
lines(x_vals, pred, col=pal_col[1]) | |