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The chances to get into certain kinds of battles are set in the terrain setting in RM2k3.
For both RM2k and RM2k3, the chance of the "first strike" flag being set in a random encounter is simply 1/32 (3.125%), unrelated to AGI.
(as I realize now, the "first strike" flag may be set this way in RM2k3 also for battles other than "normal", even though this is not supported in the event command - not sure if this can have any weird effects then)
I think we implement everything now that Cherry lists except:
First of all, it's a bit weird because the battle type may not be what was set originally: Surprise is converted to initiative if the battler placement is "manual" or there is only 1 actor in the party. Pincers is converted to back if the battler placement is "manual" or there is only 1 enemy in the monster group. (Including the different effects on calculations explained below!)
It affects the placement of the battlers of course (position and mirroring).