Industrial fuel shifting is now controlled by two policy levers. A new lever allows use of indusrtial heat pumps to electrify low-temperature heat. The existing lever now governs only medium and high temperature heat and continues to allow shifting to electricity, hydrogen, and/or other fuels.
New Policy: CO2 storage in agricultural soils from altered tillage and other soil practices
New Policy: CO2 sequestration due to avoided conversion and restoration of grasslands
New Policy: CO2 sequestration due to wetland restoration
New Policy: Carbon border adjustments (regarding carbon pricing) can now be toggled on and off. For the U.S., we assume border adjustments are off by default.
New Policy: The F-gas Equipment Maintenance & Retrofits policy is now subscripted by both the chemicals and other metals (aluminum) industry
New Features
Import and export substitution (the extent to which the policy package increases or decreases imports and exports of non-energy products) are now calculated. (The EPS already handled import and export substitution for energy products.) This also allows the model to calculate domestic consumption and changes in consumption.
Users may now override endogenous learning for battery electric vehicles (in trans/BNVP)
Labor productivity growth rates now support time series data (io-model/LPGRbIC)
Demand response now reduces the need for generation from peaker power plants
Capital costs of electricity sector CCS equipment are now properly adjusted to account for power plant capacity factors
Single-pollutant graphs are now stacked area graphs (by sector) instead of single-line graphs
Whether the carbon tax exempts process emissions by default (ctrl-settings/BEPEfCT), and the policy lever to reverse this behavior, can now be set separately for each industry
The model's handling of value-added taxes (VAT) and sales taxes is now more sophisticated and accurate.
The Macroeconomic Feedbacks sheet is clearer and easier to understand.
The policy schedule Python script (plcy-schd/FoPITY) now includes internal error checking capabilities.
Improved the metrics used to calculate macroeconomic feedback for transportation service demand.
Added the ability for government to rebate carbon tax on exported products (if carbon border adjustments are enabled), with a new control setting to toggle this behavior on or orr.
Edited or added smoothing times for electricity generation capacity, grid battery storage, transmission capital costs, and electricity prices (in files elec/STfESCE and elec/STfEPC) to spread power sector capital costs over a number of years
Exogenous GDP growth rate adjustment (ctrl-settings/EGGRA) now accepts time-series input data and can be toggled on and off in the web interface via a control lever
BAU control lever settings are now read from input data by the web app and no longer need to be specified in a Scenario_BAU.cin file.
New Graphs
Exports, imports, production, and domestic consumption of nonenergy products, as well as policy-induced changes in these metrics
Share of electricity generation from clean sources
Carbon intensity of electricity generation
Electricity intensity per unit GDP
Industrial CO2 by source type (energy vs. process)
Industrial process CO2 emissions by industry
Industrial energy-related CO2 emissions by industry
Bug Fixes
Fix to share of demand response capacity costs by cash flow entity
Revert to using ALLOCATE AVAILABLE() for electricity dispatch (as in EPS 3.3.0) rather than a logit function
Data
Updated to the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022. We chose to use the Low Economic Growth side case because it more closely aligns with economic projections from the Congressional Budget Office.
Updated to use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Annual Technology Baseline 2022
Updated BAU to reflect components of the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
Updated short-term natural gas prices to reflect futures prices
Updated new vehicle fuel economy to reflect latest Environmental Protection Agency standards
Updated NDC Scenario to reach net zero GHGs by 2050, including greater carbon capture and sequestration and direct air capture
Updated LULUCF emissions trajectory based on the 1990-2020 trend in the Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Updated LULUCF potential and costs based on consultation with external forestry experts
Updated process emissions to align with the Environmental Protection Agency Greenhouse Gas Inventory in the start year, with growth tied to AEO projections
Updated to use the International Energy Agency Methane Tracker 2022 for process methane
Updated direct air capture potential
Updated control settings to specify that all fuel prices should be affected by changes in fuel production costs
Updated control settings to exempt certain process emissions from the carbon tax by default
Updated cost of transmission
Updated cost of industrial energy efficiency policy
Fix to allow for different values of electricity dispatch shareweights for each power plant type (file elec/MOfEDS, which includes an option to manually override the model's calculated shareweights)
Electricity generation subsidies can now be set separately for power plants of the same type in different quality tiers (both BAU and policy lever)
Electricity dispatch choice is now handled via a logit function rather than ALLOCATE AVAILABLE. Logit shareweights are calculated endogenously and are policy-responsive. A manual override for these shareweights has been added, allowing detailed customization of electricity dispatch behavior for regions with unusual electricity dispatch approaches.
Transportation Sector
Changes in the amount of money paid for passenger transport fares (airfare, bus fare, train fare) are now calculated.
Annual vehicle insurance costs for all on-road vehicles are now included.
Annual vehicle parking costs are now included.
Annual vehicle licensing, registration, and property tax costs are now included.
The fuel tax policy can now be used to reduce the BAU tax rate or apply subsidies. Positive values increase the tax rate. Negative values reduce the BAU tax rate or apply subsidies.
Added single-line graphs of total energy use for each end use sector. Breakdowns showing total energy use as stacked area graphs already existed, but a single-line graph is sometimes preferable for simplicity or for comparing multiple policy packages on the same graph.
Policy schedules (FoPITY) are now managed by a single Python script rather than via several large Excel files. This allows policies to be added and changed more easily, policy schedules are generated more quickly, and there is no longer any risk of policy properties not aligning across different Excel files.
Bug Fixes
"Buy In-Region" policy lever's direct effects are now included in macroecnomic feedback loops, plus other formula fixes for this policy
Corrected the share of natural gas used for energy (vs. as feedstock) by the refining industry in indst/BPoIFUfE
Corrected formula for exclusion of deaths caused by pollution associated with imported electricity for EPS regions that count emissions from imported electricity
The change in demand for the "energy pipelines and gas processing" industry is now based on the change in domestic + exported natural gas demand, rather than natural gas production, to better handle regions with gas transmission but little-to-no gas production
Fixed omission of geoengineering primary energy use from "Primary Energy Use by Sector" and Fuel Costs graphs
Data Updates
Updated BAU trajectory to incorporate the AIM Act
Updated BAU carbon capture and sequestration amounts in industry based on a Rhodium analysis
Updated currency year to 2020
Separated combined cycle, steam turbine, and combustion turbine natural gas plants in the input data
Updated battery storage costs and recalibrated vehicle prices
Corrected BAU Production Tax Credit values for onshore wind
New Policy: Buy In-Region Products allows the user to specify a percentage of imported products (in the BAU case) that are shifted to domestic suppliers (in the policy case) for each individual industry.
Added demographic breakdowns disaggregating changes in lives saved due to reduced pollution by sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino status. New graphs show results as absolute numbers and as percent changes relative to BAU.
The EPS core model structure now supports model run end dates as far out as 2100. Each EPS region's developers may choose their preferred model run end date. (The U.S. national model's end date remains 2050.)
New Policy: N2O abatement (from the chemicals industry, primarily from nitric and adipic acid production)
Projected future changes in BAU Output, BAU Employment, BAU Value Added, and BAU Employee Compensation disaggregated by ISIC code improve the accuracy of some input/output model results
Data Updates
Updated NDC scenario to include incentives for electric vehicles and efficient building components
Update LULUCF rebound pollutant emissions factors
Update electricity sector prices to NREL ATB 2021
Update endogenous learning variables for electric vehicles
Revert to EPA data for HFCs
Update building envelope component lifetime
Update NDC targets based on the 2021 CRF submission
Update BAU and maximum biofuel blending amounts in trans/BPoEFUbVT and trans/MPoEFUbVT
Minor updates to spending allocations to ISIC codes
Other minor data updates
Web Interface
Added a new user interface (UI) for setting policy values and implementation schedules for multiple subscripted elements of the same policy. Updates to WebAppData.xlsx format support the improved UI.
Minor Updates
The carbon tax is no longer levied on industrial feedstocks (such as the natural gas that goes into plastics, or the crude oil that goes into secondary petroleum products). This avoids double-taxation of crude and secondary petroleum products.
The model now ensures input data for BAU fuel production, consumption, imports, and exports are in balance, with behavior customizable in variable fuels/FPIEBP
Added district heat losses in heat distribution systems
Building retrofitting policy effects are now cumulative with the effects of other buildings sector policies that affect the energy efficiency of newly sold building components
Subscript battery share of electric vehicle price by Vehicle Type
Bug Fixes
In models configured to treat emissions associated with imported electricity as in-region emissions, exclude these emissions from health impact calculations
Use BEA domestic requirements table instead of BEA total requirements table when splitting certain ISIC codes in io-table/DLIM
Added more detail to the Industry Category subscript, increasing the number of separately broken out industries from 8 to 25
Added new policy lever to enable mandated power plant retirement schedule
Improved methodology for calculating the maximum amounts of power plant capacity and vehicles that can be deployed in a given year by implementing logit functions
Simplified input data requirements by removing energy suppliers from input variables and using internal calculations instead
Enabled new web app graph for carbon emissions by power plant type
Included new documentation, including guidance on all output graphs
Data Updates
Updated the 1.5C scenario
Switched to using the AEO High Oil and Gas Supply scenario, which has historically tracked natural gas prices more closely
Data in input variables based on EIA Annual Energy Outlook updated to use AEO 2021 values, which includes estimated impacts from COVID-19
Updated the first simulated year to 2020
Recategorized the freight vehicle categories to group light-duty and medium-duty vehicles together and separately report heavy-duty vehicles
Updated BAU LULUCF emissions and N2O process emissions to match the latest EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Updated to latest version of PRIMAP database (v2.1), used for process CO2 emissions in indst/BPE
Removed BAU Low Carbon Fuel Standard values
Updated vehicle prices based on more current sources
Updated international fuel prices
Other minor input data updates
Bug fixes
Fix equation for calculating aircraft fuel switching under the Low Carbon Fuel Standard policy
Fix small bug in cash flow calculations for electricity sector variable and fixed O&M costs
Split ISIC 05T06 into coal mining (ISIC 05) and oil and gas extraction (ISIC 06)
Data Updates
Updated emissions intensities for non-GHGs to align with EPA's National Emissions Inventory
Updated HFC data with values supplied by the U.S. Climate Alliance
BAU electricity subsidies updated for recent PTC and ITC extensions
Updated potential for industrial electrification, based on temperature ranges of industrial heat demand
Updated electric vehicle prices
Updated CCS costs
Other minor data input updates
Bug Fixes
Fixed minor formula error in peak demand calculations
Fixed error that affected the recipient fuel fractions for the Industrial Electrification and Hydrogen policy lever
Use fuel supplier revenue totals by fuel directly in the input-ouput model instead of calculating multipliers to divide up revenue for certain fuel-supplying cash flow entities
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) policy is now split into two policy levers: Electricity sector CCS and Industry sector CCS. Electricity sector CCS is subscripted by plant type, while Industry sector CCS is subscripted by industry and by emissions type (energy-related or process emissions).
New policy: Toggle to non-BAU capacity retirement schedule (in electricity sector)
Updated 1.5 °C Scenario to take advantage of the new capabilities of the CCS policy levers
Updated BAU global battery storage capacity input data to latest version
