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1. Introduction

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FABLE-Github edited this page Mar 31, 2021 · 12 revisions

1. Introduction

1.1 What is the FABLE Calculator?

The FABLE Calculator (“the Calculator”) is an Excel accounting tool used to study the potential evolution of food and land-use systems over the period 2000-2050. It focuses on agriculture as the main driver of land-use change and tests the impact of different policies and changes in the drivers of these systems through the combination of a large number of scenarios. It includes 76 raw and processed agricultural products from the crop and livestock sectors (Appendix 1) and relies extensively on the FAOSTAT (2020) database for input data. For every 5-year time step over the period 2000-2050, the Calculator computes the level of agricultural activity, land-use change, food consumption, trade, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water use, and biodiversity conservation according to selected scenarios. Users can replace data from global databases with national or subnational data.

1.2 Why did we develop the FABLE Calculator?

We developed the FABLE Calculator because we are first convinced models can help frame better policies. Models describe and explain in a simplified framework how things work. By integrating various sources of existing information, they highlight information gaps and inconsistencies as well as the connections between different parts of complex systems. Models also explore the potential impact of policy options or of future changes. Specifically, scenarios test for the consequences of a wide range of "if" assumptions and their most important dependencies.

The FABLE Calculator is an accounting tool built in Excel in order to allow a wide range of users, modelers or non-modelers alike, to explore future land-use and food-systems change. This includes policymakers, researchers, or even students who develop more complex tools on food and land-use systems. Compared to more complex models, the Calculator has several advantages. It can identify major imbalances in, and threats to, national food and land-use systems without complex optimization algorithms. It can run on almost any computer since Excel is one of the most widely used programs in the world and newer versions are backward compatible with older Excel files. Because all the data is visible and the structure of the Excel functions is clear, the Calculator contains no hidden “black-box” to hide its weaknesses. Moreover, users can quickly select alternative combinations of scenarios and see the impacts on the main indicators. This is an advantage when interacting with stakeholders, as assumptions can be changed easily and transparently.

However, there are tradeoffs to these advantages, so users should keep in mind the Calculator’s shortcomings and limitations when conducting any analyses:

  1. The Calculator is not an optimization tool and prices are only used ex-post to compute production and trade values. Therefore, prices do not influence the results and results do not influence commodity prices, contrary to economic models.
  2. There is no detailed representation of production practices and/or technologies. This means that neither the technical feasibility nor the economic feasibility of the pathway is evaluated within the FABLE Calculator. This should be assessed through complementary analysis.
  3. The forestry sector is not yet considered. This means that parts of AFOLU GHG emissions/sequestration are not covered i.e., GHG emission/sequestration in managed forests and woody products are not represented.
  4. The emissions from agriculture can only be reduced by lowering production volumes or increasing productivity. Other mitigation options for agriculture, such as improved rice management, animal feed supplements, fertilization techniques or anaerobic digesters are not yet represented.
  5. Water availability constraints are not represented.
  6. Even though the Calculator is an Excel file and the formulas are transparent, fully understanding the computations and being able to make changes require some time. Training materials are under development and will be progressively added online.

The tool has been developed within the framework of the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land- Use, and Energy (FABLE) Consortium, a collaborative initiative, operating as part of the Food and Land Use (FOLU) Coalition, working to understand how countries can transition towards sustainable land-use and food systems. Before joining the Consortium, very few country teams had access to models or accounting tools that covered both food and land-use systems. Therefore, the FABLE Calculator was initially developed with the objective of providing a model to each country team as quickly as possible to allow them to make initial projections of their food and land-use systems up to 2050. The FABLE Consortium played a key role in identifying problems and mistakes in the Calculator and in suggesting improvements.

1.3 What is new compared to the previous version?

Compared to the 2019 version, updates to the documentation include the improvements that have been made to the FABLE Calculator during the course of the past year, 2020, and which are accessible in the Open FABLE Calculator 2020. These are related to:

  • Improvements to the scenarios for protected areas (cf. Section 3.9)
  • New indicator on the share of land where natural processes predominate (cf. Section 5.5.2)
  • New scenarios on alternative climate change impacts for selected crops (cf. Section 3.8)
  • New representation of crop demand for biofuels and alternative scenarios on biofuel demand (cf. Section 3.11)
  • New indicators on protein and fat intake (cf. Section 5.1)
  • Improvements to the representation of food waste (cf. Section 3.3)
  • New scenarios on alternative levels of post-harvest losses in the future (cf. Section 3.10)
  • Separated food group for nuts (Appendix 1: List of product groups and products)

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