Tutorial on Probabilistic Programming
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README.md

Tutorial on Probabilistic Programming

Exercise

File 01 coin toss example.ipynb shows a simple stochastic process: flipping a coin. Our certainty about the true mean of this experiment increases with the number of observations.

What is the probability, that the coin is fair?

Please formulate a Bayesian model for this research question

  • in full sentences (e.g. my prior beliefs are, ...)
  • as mathematical formulas
  • using PyMC3 and hit the inference button of PyMC3 for simulated test data. The data can be generated using the provided example or with your own routines.

How does your certainty (posterior) increase with additional data?