Background on Viziflu
Viziflu is a visualization tool that displays multiple predictions about the timing of
"U.S. National"/"Peak Week," the week with the highest predicted number of flu cases, using the results of forecasts submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as part of the agency's annual FluSight influenza forecasting challenge. By displaying the outputs of multiple influenza models and allowing users to compare the uncertainty across those models, Viziflu can help make influenza forecasts more actionable for decision-makers.
If you would like to explore Viziflu, you can access
- early season forecasts⁑ for the current (2019–20) flu season here
- early season forecasts* for part of the 2018–19 season here
- forecast skill scores for the 2018–19 flu season here
- full season early season forecasts from the 2017-18 flu season here
- forecast skill scores for the the 2017-18 flu season here
* Preliminary results only. ⁑ Note that skill scores for the 2019-20 flu season are not currently available.
Description and Generalizability
In this visualization, the duration of the flu season is represented as a horizontal timeline from October through May. Several models are listed alphabetically on the left side of the display and a color gradient indicates each models’ predicted probability that flu will peak in each week of the flu season. Although Viziflu was designed to show seasonal influenza forecasts, we imagine the tool could easily be adapted for other applications where users would benefit from the ability to compare forecasted probabilities of occurrence over time, as predicted by multiple models.
💡 Project Origins
Viziflu was developed following a B.Next Roundtable and whitepaper on Technology to advance infectious disease forecasting for outbreak management that identified the need for improved communication about public health data, including new visualization techniques that help convey risks and uncertainties to decision-makers and the public, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Influenza Division providing valuable feedback and domain expertise.
📆 Converting MMWR Weeks to ISO 8601
⚠️ Important Disclaimers
Multiple outside research teams have developed different models that provide flu activity forecasts to CDC, and more information and visualizations of forecasts can be found on the FluSight website and GitHub repo.
N.B. These are neither CDC nor IQT Labs forecasts and the model results on this page are not endorsed or approved by CDC or IQT Labs. These forecasts are based on different models, can vary significantly, and may be inaccurate. These forecasts and data are provided “as is” with no warranties of any kind, and use of this information is at your sole risk. To the maximum extent provided by law, neither IQT Labs and its affiliates nor any government agency or third party shall be liable for any damages of any kind relating to or resulting from use of the information on this site. For more information visit https://www.iqt.org/terms-of-use/. Anyone interested in using these data for additional research or publications is requested to contact CDC for information regarding attribution of the source forecasts.
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Viziflu is available to the public under the Apache 2.0 License.