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Geolocation and path cross

Spurred on by Seemant's voyage in to geoip for deciding on the location of users writing comments on his website I decided to have a look in to MaxMind's library with the intent of using it in a semi-private pathcross-type application. Unfortunately, it turns out it isn't all that simple but there is some fun to be had along the way.

If, like Seemant, you're looking to simply infer the country a specific IP address originates from then the accuracy of the results from the geoip library are generally quite good. Out of the fifty requests I tried the MaxMind database managed to return the correct results for all but three, and each of those incorrect results are because of interesting proxying games being played by their service providers. The accuracy would likely be much higher than 94% using a more random selection of IPs, but I went out of my way to find ones I expected to return incorrect data(large multinational ISPs, mobile providers and backbone infrastructure owners). That being said, the accuracy of the results drops considerably as you zoom in from country-wide geolocation.

My initial idea had been to use the city data to populate an automatically updating database that could be queried to find people in the local area [1]. Much like some of those oh-so-cool Web 2.0 buzzword laden sites do but without the manual updating, Javascript, lack of privacy and continual spam. Me and a few friends already do such a thing using our published hCalendar entries, a heap of nifty Haskell code and some dirty hack infested XSLT. It works well, but it could do so much better given more data. Unfortunately, the geoip solution wouldn't work as I envisaged because the precision of the city data isn't what I naïvely hoped for.

All that aside, and with the failed plan in tatters on the floor, it did leave a few interesting artefacts to be mulled over instead of doing Real Work™.

How inaccurate?

Using MaxMind's Locate my IP service, which presumably queries their largest and most current database to attract customers, I'm reported as being:

Attribute Data
Your IP Address 62.249.253.214
Countries United Kingdom
Region O2 (Telford and Wrekin)
Global Cities Telford
Latitude/Longitude 52.6333/-2.5000
ISP Telford
Organization Entanet International Ltd
Netspeed Dialup
Domain Name entanet.co.uk

Okay, so at the moment of that query it gets the correct country, net speed, organisation(my ISP UKFSN resells Entanet service) but that is it [2]. Not that we really should be expecting any great accuracy with the data, because of the way IPs are assigned and used.

Assuming that I would be happy with my location being reported as Telford, how inaccurate is the data? In the context of path cross the question is "would I be likely to travel to Telford for a beer?" Time to brush up on spherical trigonometry basics I guess.

The data is reasonably correct in stating a location of N52.6333°; W2.5000° for Telford. My location, assuming the WGS-84 datum, is N52.015°; W0.221°.

Calculating the Great-circle distance between the two coordinates is relatively easy. I've hacked together a really simple Python module called :mod:`upoints` that allows you to calculate the distance between two points on Earth(or any other approximately spherical body with a few minor changes). It offers the Law of Cosines and haversine methods for calculating the distance, because they're the two I happen to know.

Too inaccurate?

>>> from upoints import point
>>> Home = point.Point(52.015, -0.221)
>>> Telford = point.Point(52.6333, -2.5000)
>>> print("%i kM" % Home.distance(Telford))
169 kM

The script above tells us that the distance from my house to Telford is approximately 170 kM (just over 100 miles for those so inclined), given that result what is the answer to my question "would I be likely to travel to Telford for a beer?" Probably not.

The answer isn't that simple though. Whereas I probably wouldn't travel 170 kM for a beer with my good friend Danny(sorry Danny!), I would consider travelling 170 kM to meet up with Roger Beckinsale. It isn't because Danny is bad company(quite the contrary), it is because I live eight kilometres from Danny's house and can pop round for a beer whenever the urge hits me. Roger on the other hand lives on the Isle of Lewis, as far North West as the British Isles go, and I haven't seen him for a year or so.

There is only one conclusion to draw from this: Accuracy is in the eye of the beerholder(sorry!). This conclusion has led me to implement some new features in our manual path cross tool, all based around the idea of relative proximity.

The "average" location of a person is important when calculating whether your paths cross [3]. I'm not really interested in seeing when somebody who works at the same site as me is within twenty kilometres of me as it would clearly happen a lot, but I'd like to see when somebody visits from abroad or heads to a show within perhaps thirty kilometres of my location.

Your proximity alert

I've hacked support for relative proximities in to our Haskell tool, but :mod:`upoints` could be used as the basis to implement something similar in Python. Taking Seemant, who lives in Boston, Ma., as an example as it is his fault I'm playing with Python and geoip :mod:`upoints` can tell us:

>>> Seemant = point.Point(42, -71)
>>> print("%i kM" % Home.distance(Seemant))
5257 kM

We now have to make a decision about the range for the proximity alert given that Seemant lives some five thousand kilometres away. Being that I owe him many beers for taking care of a lot of my Gentoo bugs for me, I should perhaps set the range to be quite low and save myself some money.

Without taking in to account my stinginess it seems that a reasonable target range is the square root of the home-to-home distance. From looking at the events I've tagged to meet up with someone in the past year it seems that all of them fall surprisingly evenly within the square root of the distance we live from each other.

Marginally weighted square roots might be more appropriate in reality because there are some anomalies. For example, I travelled from Kensington to West India Dock after LinuxWorld last year to catch up with friends who live a few minutes up the A1 from my house. The reason being for most of last year our schedules seemed to be stopping us meeting up locally, but even that fell within 1.5 times the square root. Adding in a key to show the last face to face meeting, would probably allow one to assign weighting automatically. Continuing the Seemant example would mean increasing his range significantly, being a BTS and email-only contact.

>>> import math
>>> math.sqrt(Home.distance(Seemant))
72.51154203831521

If we forget about the anomalies, and just take the square root as being correct I can populate the relationship for Seemant with a 73 kM limit. I'm sure each person involved will have their own idea of what a reasonable limit would be, so that should be user defined.

Conclusions

geoip wasn't, and isn't going to become, a viable way to update the path cross database and until more mobile devices come equipped with :term:`GPS` automated updates just aren't going to be usable. If you want to start claiming those owed beers the answer is to publish your schedule in valid hCalendar, and publish a hCard containing your home location so you get the correct range allowance.

If you think of any good uses for :mod:`upoints`, drop me a mail. Cool new uses with attached patches are even better!

Bonus

Having already implemented the basic class and distance method, I figured I may as well add bearing calculation too. It's only 4 lines of code, so why not?

>>> print("A heading of %i° will find the beers!" % Home.bearing(Telford))
A heading of 294° will find the beers!
[1]By "automatically updating" I mean simply a ping-and-forget service that listens for a user ID and location and updates the database. My test code was a simple five line Python script, it literally reads a configuration file for the user ID and pings my server.
[2]I guess you could argue it gets the US area code, US metro code and zipcode correct as none of them apply here.
[3]The implementation actually considers the mode, and not the average, in calculating "home" locations. It makes it less prone to errors when people only report long distance changes, because the clustering isn't so obvious. If more people hosted a complete hCard, we wouldn't even need to calculate this.