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Investigating the effects of feedback https://rawgithub.com/JonJagger/Felle…
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A simple web-page to simulate lots of Feller's walks. Each Feller's walk is 1000 steps long. At each step you flip a fair coin and keep a running total (starting at zero), o) adding one to the total if you flip a head, o) subtracting one from the total if you flip a tail. How will the total behave as the walk proceeds? Most people's intuition is that the total will hover around zero. Does it? Find out! https://rawgithub.com/JonJagger/Fellers-1000-coin-tosses/master/fellers.html Every N steps (on average) intead of flipping the coin, you look at the total: o) if its negative (more tails than heads), pretend you flipped a head, and add one to the total o) if its positive (more heads than tails), pretend you flipped a tail, and subtract one from the total. This increases the likelihood of the total staying nearer zero. How effective is this feedback? Find out! I discovered Feller's walk on page 77 of Don Reinersten's excellent book The Principles of Product Development FLOW. http://jonjagger.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/principles-of-product-development-flow.html is a blog entry with some snippets from his book. http://jonjagger.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/fellers-walk.html is another blog entry on Feller's walk. http://jonjagger.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/fun-with-feedback-frequency.html is yet another blog entry detailing how to use the simulation and revealing how effective the feedback is.