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Age-structured Stochastic SEIR Modelling Covid-19 Pandemic in Kenya

Authors: Ms. Lucy Njoki Njuki

Affiliation: MSc Statistics and Data Science(Biostatistics) student @ UHasselt

Acknowledge: Prof. Thomas N.O. Achia

The first COVID 19 case reported in Kenya was March 13, 2020. The government then announced the closure of schools on March 15, 2020, and social gatherings were banned on 25 March. In April, a partial lockdown was imposed in Nairobi and Mombasa. On June 6, 2020, a dusk-to-dawn curfew was extended. The nationwide curfew was extended to date with hours of lockdown varying in the 47 counties; depending on the number of infections in the county. Mass vaccination commenced on March 5, 2021 - AstraZeneca vaccine. On March 26, 2021, disease-infected areas were declared (Machakos, Nairobi, Kajiado, Nakuru and Kiambu). However, this was lifted and movement across counties was allowed in April 2021.

The model aims to simulate the Covid-19 death data for Kenya to reveal the impacts of different control interventions on the trend of Covid-19. To add on, the app is aimed to show the descriptive state of the disease using reported data.

Adopting the UK MRC R-squire model that was developed for the following purpose:

A stochastic age-structured SEIR model incorporating explicit passage through health care settings and explicit progression through disease severity stages. The ability to calibrate the model to different epidemic start-dates based on available death data. Simulate the impacts of different control interventions (including general social distancing, specific shielding of elderly populations, and more stringent suppression strategies).

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