From 15a4ddf3ba893cdbea137cfcfd619d616a607b0d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: aseckin Date: Mon, 26 Aug 2024 18:18:41 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 1/8] Fixed mathjax issue in FAQ --- .../app/(main)/components/custommathjax.tsx | 51 +++++++++++++++++++ .../app/(main)/components/mathjaxwrapper.tsx | 14 +++++ front_end/src/app/(main)/faq/page.tsx | 20 +++++--- 3 files changed, 77 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) create mode 100644 front_end/src/app/(main)/components/custommathjax.tsx create mode 100644 front_end/src/app/(main)/components/mathjaxwrapper.tsx diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/custommathjax.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/custommathjax.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d32c9fbf54 --- /dev/null +++ b/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/custommathjax.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,51 @@ +import React, { useEffect, useRef } from "react"; + +declare global { + interface Window { + MathJax: any; + } +} + +interface CustomMathJaxProps { + children: string; +} + +const CustomMathJax: React.FC = ({ children }) => { + const nodeRef = useRef(null); + + useEffect(() => { + const script = document.createElement("script"); + script.src = + "https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.9/MathJax.js?config=TeX-MML-AM_CHTML"; + script.async = true; + document.head.appendChild(script); + + script.onload = () => { + if (typeof window.MathJax !== "undefined") { + window.MathJax.Hub.Queue([ + "Typeset", + window.MathJax.Hub, + nodeRef.current, + ]); + } + }; + + return () => { + document.head.removeChild(script); + }; + }, []); + + useEffect(() => { + if (typeof window.MathJax !== "undefined") { + window.MathJax.Hub.Queue([ + "Typeset", + window.MathJax.Hub, + nodeRef.current, + ]); + } + }, [children]); + + return
{children}
; +}; + +export default CustomMathJax; diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/mathjaxwrapper.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/mathjaxwrapper.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..81a31b5366 --- /dev/null +++ b/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/mathjaxwrapper.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +"use client"; + +import React from "react"; +import CustomMathJax from "./custommathjax"; + +interface MathJaxWrapperProps { + children: string; +} + +const MathJaxWrapper: React.FC = ({ children }) => { + return {children}; +}; + +export default MathJaxWrapper; diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/faq/page.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/faq/page.tsx index 25d7269699..4ee086edb0 100644 --- a/front_end/src/app/(main)/faq/page.tsx +++ b/front_end/src/app/(main)/faq/page.tsx @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ import Image from "next/image"; import PageWrapper from "../components/pagewrapper"; +import MathJaxWrapper from "../components/mathjaxwrapper"; export const metadata = { title: "Metaculus FAQ", @@ -2657,8 +2658,7 @@ export default function FAQ() { distribution to be symmetric.

- - {/*
+

Here's the mathematical detail:

-
    +
    • Keep only the most recent prediction from each forecaster.
    • - Assign them a number \(n\), from oldest to newest (oldest is - \(1\)). + {` Assign them a number \\(n\\), from oldest to newest (oldest is + \\(1\\)).`} +
    • +
    • + {` Weight each by \\(w(n) \\propto e^{\\sqrt{n}}\\) before being aggregated.`}
    • -
    • Weight each by \(w(n) \propto e^\sqrt{n}\) before being aggregated.
      • For{" "} @@ -2703,13 +2705,15 @@ export default function FAQ() { distributions.
      -
    • The particular form of the weights means that approximately \(\sqrt{N}\) forecasters need to predict or update their prediction in order to substantially change the Community Prediction on a question that already has \(N\) forecasters.
    • +
    • + {` The particular form of the weights means that approximately \\(\\sqrt{N}\\) forecasters need to predict or update their prediction in order to substantially change the Community Prediction on a question that already has \\(N\\) forecasters.`} +

    Users can hide the Community Prediction from view from within their settings.

    -

*/} +

Date: Mon, 26 Aug 2024 18:43:35 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 2/8] Partial Scores FAQ page --- .../src/app/(main)/help/scores-faq/page.tsx | 336 ++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 336 insertions(+) create mode 100644 front_end/src/app/(main)/help/scores-faq/page.tsx diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/help/scores-faq/page.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/help/scores-faq/page.tsx new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..80187e039d --- /dev/null +++ b/front_end/src/app/(main)/help/scores-faq/page.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,336 @@ +import PageWrapper from "../../components/pagewrapper"; +import MathJaxWrapper from "../../components/mathjaxwrapper"; + +export const metadata = { + title: "Scores FAQ | Metaculus", + description: "tbd", +}; + +export default function ScoresFAQ() { + return ( + +

Scores FAQ

+

+ Below are Frequently Asked Questions (and answers!) about scores. The + general FAQ is here, and the medals FAQ is{" "} + here. +

+ +

Contents:

+
+ +
+ +
+ +

+ Scores +

+ +

+ What is a scoring rule? +

+

+ A scoring rule is a mathematical function which, given a prediction and + an outcome, gives a score in the form of a number. +

+

+ A naive scoring rule could be: "you score equals the probability + you gave to the correct outcome". So, for example, if you predict + 80% and the question resolves Yes, your score would be 0.8 (and 0.2 if + the question resolved No). At first glance this seems like a good + scoring rule: forecasters who gave predictions closer to the truth get + higher scores. +

+

+ Unfortunately this scoring rule is not "proper", as we'll + see in the next section. +

+ +

+ What is a proper scoring rule? +

+

+ Proper scoring rules have a very special property: the only way to + optimize your score on average is to predict your sincere beliefs. +

+

+ How do we know that the naive scoring rule from the previous section is + not proper? An example should be illuminating: consider the question + "Will I roll a 6 on this fair die?". Since the die is fair, + your belief is "1/6" or about 17%. Now consider three + possibilities: you could either predict your true belief (17%), predict + something more extreme, like 5%, or predict something less extreme, like + 30%. Here's a table of the scores you expect for each possible die + roll: +

+ +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
outcome die rollnaive score of p=5%naive score of p=17%naive score of p=30%
10.950.830.7
20.950.830.7
30.950.830.7
40.950.830.7
50.950.830.7
60.050.170.3
average0.80.720.63
+
+ +

+ Which means you get a better score on average if you predict 5% than + 17%. In other words, this naive score incentivizes you to predict + something other than the true probability. This is very bad! +

+

+ Proper scoring rules do not have this problem: your score is best when + you predict the true probability. The log score, which underpins all + Metaculus scores, is a proper score (see{" "} + What is the log score?). We + can compare the scores you get in the previous example: +

+ +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
outcome die rolllog score of p=5%log score of p=17%log score of p=30%
1-0.05-0.19-0.37
2-0.05-0.19-0.37
3-0.05-0.19-0.37
4-0.05-0.19-0.37
5-0.05-0.19-0.37
6-3-1.77-1.2
average-0.54-0.45-0.51
+
+ +

+ With the log score, you do get a higher (better) score if you predict + the true probability of 17%. +

+ {/* +

What is the log score?

+

The logarithmic scoring rule, or "log score" for short, is defined as:

+ + {`\\[ + \\text{log score} = \\ln(P(outcome)) + \\]`} + +

Where {`\\(\\ln\\)`} is the natural logarithm and {`\\(P(outcome)\\)`} is the probability predicted for the outcome that actually happened. This log score applies to categorical predictions, where one of a (usually) small set of outcomes can happen. On Metaculus those are Binary and Multiple Choice questions. See the next section for the log scores of continuous questions.

+

Higher scores are better:

+
    +
  • If you predicted 0% on the correct outcome, your score will be {`\\(-\\infty\\)`} (minus infinity).
  • +
  • If you predict 100% on the correct outcome, your score will be 0.
  • +
+

This means that the log score is always negative (for Binary and Multiple Choice questions). This has proved unintuitive, which is one reason why Metaculus uses the Baseline and Peer scores, which are based on the log score but can be positive.

+

The log score is proper (see What is a proper scoring rule?). This means that to maximize your score you should predict your true beliefs (see Can I get better scores by predicting extreme values?).

+

One interesting property of the log score: it is much more punitive of extreme wrong predictions than it is rewarding of extreme right predictions. Consider the scores you get for predicting 99% or 99.9%:

+ +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
99% Yes, 1% No99.9% Yes, 0.1% No
Score if outcome = Yes-0.01-0.001
Score if outcome = No-4.6-6.9
+
+ +

Going from 99% to 99.9% only gives you a tiny advantage if you are correct (+0.009), but a huge penalty if you are wrong (-2.3). So be careful, and only use extreme probabilities when you're sure they're appropriate!

+ +

What is the log score for continuous questions?

+

Since the domain of possible outcomes for continuous questions is (drum roll) continuous, any outcome has mathematically 0 chance of happening. Thankfully we can adapt the log score in the form:

+ + {`\\[ + \\text{log score} = \\ln(\\operatorname{pdf}(outcome)) + \\]`} + +

Where {`\\(\\ln\\)`} is the natural logarithm and {`\\(\\operatorname{pdf}(outcome)\\)`} is the value of the predicted probability density function at the outcome. Note that on Metaculus, all pdfs have a uniform distribution of height 0.01 added to them. This prevents extreme log scores.

+

This is also a proper scoring rule, and behaves in somewhat similar ways to the log score described above. One difference is that, contrary to probabilities that are always between 0 and 1, {`\\(\\operatorname{pdf}\\)`} values can be greater than 1. This means that the continuous log score can be greater than 0: in theory it has no maximum value, but in practice Metaculus restricts how sharp pdfs can get (see the maximum scores tabulated below).

*/} +
+ ); +} From bb2b415eb01ef9c2903d459a803e36b69b56096f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nikita Date: Tue, 27 Aug 2024 11:40:32 +0300 Subject: [PATCH 3/8] refactor: utilise better-react-mathjax for rendering math expressions on static pages --- .../app/(main)/components/custommathjax.tsx | 51 ------------------- .../app/(main)/components/mathjaxwrapper.tsx | 14 ----- front_end/src/app/(main)/faq/page.tsx | 17 +++++-- .../src/app/(main)/help/scores-faq/page.tsx | 9 ++-- .../embedded_math_jax/index.tsx | 5 +- front_end/src/components/math_jax_content.tsx | 17 +++++++ 6 files changed, 35 insertions(+), 78 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 front_end/src/app/(main)/components/custommathjax.tsx delete mode 100644 front_end/src/app/(main)/components/mathjaxwrapper.tsx create mode 100644 front_end/src/components/math_jax_content.tsx diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/custommathjax.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/custommathjax.tsx deleted file mode 100644 index d32c9fbf54..0000000000 --- a/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/custommathjax.tsx +++ /dev/null @@ -1,51 +0,0 @@ -import React, { useEffect, useRef } from "react"; - -declare global { - interface Window { - MathJax: any; - } -} - -interface CustomMathJaxProps { - children: string; -} - -const CustomMathJax: React.FC = ({ children }) => { - const nodeRef = useRef(null); - - useEffect(() => { - const script = document.createElement("script"); - script.src = - "https://cdnjs.cloudflare.com/ajax/libs/mathjax/2.7.9/MathJax.js?config=TeX-MML-AM_CHTML"; - script.async = true; - document.head.appendChild(script); - - script.onload = () => { - if (typeof window.MathJax !== "undefined") { - window.MathJax.Hub.Queue([ - "Typeset", - window.MathJax.Hub, - nodeRef.current, - ]); - } - }; - - return () => { - document.head.removeChild(script); - }; - }, []); - - useEffect(() => { - if (typeof window.MathJax !== "undefined") { - window.MathJax.Hub.Queue([ - "Typeset", - window.MathJax.Hub, - nodeRef.current, - ]); - } - }, [children]); - - return
{children}
; -}; - -export default CustomMathJax; diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/mathjaxwrapper.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/mathjaxwrapper.tsx deleted file mode 100644 index 81a31b5366..0000000000 --- a/front_end/src/app/(main)/components/mathjaxwrapper.tsx +++ /dev/null @@ -1,14 +0,0 @@ -"use client"; - -import React from "react"; -import CustomMathJax from "./custommathjax"; - -interface MathJaxWrapperProps { - children: string; -} - -const MathJaxWrapper: React.FC = ({ children }) => { - return {children}; -}; - -export default MathJaxWrapper; diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/faq/page.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/faq/page.tsx index 4ee086edb0..5363122191 100644 --- a/front_end/src/app/(main)/faq/page.tsx +++ b/front_end/src/app/(main)/faq/page.tsx @@ -1,7 +1,8 @@ import Image from "next/image"; +import MathJaxContent from "@/components/math_jax_content"; + import PageWrapper from "../components/pagewrapper"; -import MathJaxWrapper from "../components/mathjaxwrapper"; export const metadata = { title: "Metaculus FAQ", @@ -2674,11 +2675,15 @@ export default function FAQ() {
  • Keep only the most recent prediction from each forecaster.
  • - {` Assign them a number \\(n\\), from oldest to newest (oldest is - \\(1\\)).`} +
  • - {` Weight each by \\(w(n) \\propto e^{\\sqrt{n}}\\) before being aggregated.`} +
    • @@ -2706,7 +2711,9 @@ export default function FAQ() {
  • - {` The particular form of the weights means that approximately \\(\\sqrt{N}\\) forecasters need to predict or update their prediction in order to substantially change the Community Prediction on a question that already has \\(N\\) forecasters.`} +

diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/help/scores-faq/page.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/help/scores-faq/page.tsx index 80187e039d..a172cc1ee3 100644 --- a/front_end/src/app/(main)/help/scores-faq/page.tsx +++ b/front_end/src/app/(main)/help/scores-faq/page.tsx @@ -1,5 +1,4 @@ import PageWrapper from "../../components/pagewrapper"; -import MathJaxWrapper from "../../components/mathjaxwrapper"; export const metadata = { title: "Scores FAQ | Metaculus", @@ -278,7 +277,7 @@ export default function ScoresFAQ() { With the log score, you do get a higher (better) score if you predict the true probability of 17%.

- {/* + {/*

What is the log score?

The logarithmic scoring rule, or "log score" for short, is defined as:

@@ -295,7 +294,7 @@ export default function ScoresFAQ() {

This means that the log score is always negative (for Binary and Multiple Choice questions). This has proved unintuitive, which is one reason why Metaculus uses the Baseline and Peer scores, which are based on the log score but can be positive.

The log score is proper (see What is a proper scoring rule?). This means that to maximize your score you should predict your true beliefs (see Can I get better scores by predicting extreme values?).

One interesting property of the log score: it is much more punitive of extreme wrong predictions than it is rewarding of extreme right predictions. Consider the scores you get for predicting 99% or 99.9%:

- +
@@ -319,9 +318,9 @@ export default function ScoresFAQ() {
- +

Going from 99% to 99.9% only gives you a tiny advantage if you are correct (+0.009), but a huge penalty if you are wrong (-2.3). So be careful, and only use extreme probabilities when you're sure they're appropriate!

- +

What is the log score for continuous questions?

Since the domain of possible outcomes for continuous questions is (drum roll) continuous, any outcome has mathematically 0 chance of happening. Thankfully we can adapt the log score in the form:

diff --git a/front_end/src/components/markdown_editor/embedded_math_jax/index.tsx b/front_end/src/components/markdown_editor/embedded_math_jax/index.tsx index d9c2367ce1..ba2dc35da5 100644 --- a/front_end/src/components/markdown_editor/embedded_math_jax/index.tsx +++ b/front_end/src/components/markdown_editor/embedded_math_jax/index.tsx @@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ import classNames from "classnames"; import React, { FC } from "react"; import createEditorComponent from "@/components/markdown_editor/createJsxComponent"; +import MathJaxContent from "@/components/math_jax_content"; import Button from "@/components/ui/button"; import useLexicalBackspaceNodeRemove from "../hooks/use_backspace_node_remove"; @@ -44,9 +45,7 @@ const EmbeddedMathJax: React.FC = ({ content }) => { )} {...getReferenceProps()} > - - {content} - + {!isReadOnly && (

- We also allow <img> images: + We also allow <img{">"} images:

         {`markdown logo`}
@@ -399,10 +401,12 @@ def hello_world():
         limit users to the elements described above. For example, if you try to
         input an image using ![Alt text](/path/to/img.jpg) the
         output will look like <img alt="Alt text"
-        src="/path/to/img.jpg"/>, and something like{" "}
-        <script>doSomethingEvil()</script> certainly
-        won't work. We also employ a few markdown extensions that handle
-        fenced code blocks (described above) and make{" "}
+        src="/path/to/img.jpg"/{">"}, and something like{" "}
+        
+          <script{">"}doSomethingEvil()</script{">"}
+        {" "}
+        certainly won't work. We also employ a few markdown extensions that
+        handle fenced code blocks (described above) and make{" "}
         
           lists
         {" "}

From b3fdca037ea99821684fb6057ef9227ba0136703 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: aseckin 
Date: Sat, 31 Aug 2024 02:55:48 +0200
Subject: [PATCH 8/8] Added Legacy Points Rankings page

---
 .../(main)/legacy-points-rankings/page.tsx    | 6032 +++++++++++++++++
 1 file changed, 6032 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 front_end/src/app/(main)/legacy-points-rankings/page.tsx

diff --git a/front_end/src/app/(main)/legacy-points-rankings/page.tsx b/front_end/src/app/(main)/legacy-points-rankings/page.tsx
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..1e3ab9e663
--- /dev/null
+++ b/front_end/src/app/(main)/legacy-points-rankings/page.tsx
@@ -0,0 +1,6032 @@
+import PageWrapper from "../components/pagewrapper";
+
+export const metadata = {
+  title: "Points Rankings Archive | Metaculus",
+  description:
+    "This page shows the cumulative points earned by top forecasters on all questions from October 2015 to April 2024. This page will not be updated in the future.",
+};
+
+export default function LegacyPointsRankings() {
+  return (
+    
+      

Points Rankings

+

+ This page shows the cumulative points earned by top forecasters on all + questions from October 2015 to April 2024. This page will not be updated + in the future. Our current scoring and leaderboard system can be found{" "} + here. +

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + {" "} + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + {" "} + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + {" "} + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + {" "} + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + {" "} + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + {" "} + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + 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