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README.md

Data Science Accelerator - Solar power forecasting with Cognitive Toolkit in R

Overview

This repo reproduces CNTK tutorial 106 B

  • Deep Learning time series forecasting with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) in R, by using the Keras R interface with Microsoft Cognitive Toolkit in an Azure Data Science Virtual Machine (DSVM).

An Azure account can be created for free by visiting Microsoft Azure. This will then allow you to deploy a Ubuntu Data Science Virtual Machine through the Azure Portal. You can then connect to the server's Jupyter Notebook instance through a local web browser via https://<ip address>:8000. Another alternative is to launch a remote desktop via X2Go (if it is a Linux DSVM), and then run the code in a Rstudio desktop version. NOTE: there is an issue with OpenSSL certificate so remote access to an R session with RStudio Server does not work.

The repository contains three parts

  • Data Solar panel readings collected from Internet-of-Things (IoTs) devices are used.
  • Code Two R markdown files are available - the first one titled SolarPanelForecastingTutorial provides a general introduction of the accelerator and codes for setting up an experimental environment on Azure DSVM; the second one titled SolarPanelForecastingCode wraps codes and step-by-step tutorials on build a LSTM model for forecasting from end to end.
  • Docs Blogs and decks will be added soon.

Business domain

The accelerator presents a tutorial on forecasting solar panel power readings by using a LSTM based neural network model trained on the historical data. Solar power forecasting is a critical problem, and a model with desirable estimation accuracy potentially benefits many domain-specific business such as energy trading, management, etc.

Data science problem

The problem is to predict the maximum value of total power generation in a day from the solar panel, by taking the sequential readings of solar power generation at the current and past sampling moments.

Data understanding

The data set used in the accelerator was collected from IoT devices incorporated in solar panels. The data is available at the URL.

Modeling

Model used in this accelerator is based on LSTM, which is capable of modeling long-term depenencies in time series data. By properly processing the original data into sequences of power readings, a deep neural network formed by LSTM cells and dropout layers can capture the patterns in the time series so as to predict the output.

Solution architecture

The experiment is conducted on a Ubuntu DSVM.