diff --git a/Confirmation/AR2thin.csv b/Confirmation/AR2thin.csv
diff --git a/Confirmation/MCMC.png b/Confirmation/MCMC.png
diff --git a/Confirmation/Skeleton.Rnw b/Confirmation/Skeleton.Rnw
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB-concordance.tex b/Confirmation/VB-concordance.tex
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.Rnw b/Confirmation/VB.Rnw
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.adx b/Confirmation/VB.adx
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.bbl b/Confirmation/VB.bbl
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.blg b/Confirmation/VB.blg
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.idx b/Confirmation/VB.idx
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.ilg b/Confirmation/VB.ilg
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.ind b/Confirmation/VB.ind
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.log b/Confirmation/VB.log
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.pdf b/Confirmation/VB.pdf
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.synctex.gz b/Confirmation/VB.synctex.gz
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.tex b/Confirmation/VB.tex
diff --git a/Confirmation/VB.toc b/Confirmation/VB.toc
diff --git a/Confirmation/VBfit.png b/Confirmation/VBfit.png
diff --git a/Confirmation/Variational_Bayes_derivation.Rnw b/Confirmation/Variational_Bayes_derivation.Rnw
diff --git a/Confirmation/Vine.rds b/Confirmation/Vine.rds
diff --git a/Confirmation/algorithm.Rnw b/Confirmation/algorithm.Rnw
diff --git a/Confirmation/asa.bst b/Confirmation/asa.bst
diff --git a/Confirmation/asa.sty b/Confirmation/asa.sty
diff --git a/Confirmation/bayes.Rnw b/Confirmation/bayes.Rnw
diff --git a/Confirmation/conf_functions.R b/Confirmation/conf_functions.R
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation.tex b/Confirmation/confirmation.tex
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_V2.tex b/Confirmation/confirmation_V2.tex
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_V2_CF.tex b/Confirmation/confirmation_V2_CF.tex
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_example.R b/Confirmation/confirmation_example.R
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_outline-concordance.tex b/Confirmation/confirmation_outline-concordance.tex
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.Rnw b/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.Rnw
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.bbl b/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.bbl
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.log b/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.log
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.pdf b/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.pdf
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.synctex.gz b/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.synctex.gz
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.tex b/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.tex
diff --git a/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.toc b/Confirmation/confirmation_outline.toc
diff --git a/Confirmation/derivations.Rnw b/Confirmation/derivations.Rnw
diff --git a/Confirmation/figure/AR2MCMC-1.pdf b/Confirmation/figure/AR2MCMC-1.pdf
diff --git a/Confirmation/figure/MCMC-1.pdf b/Confirmation/figure/MCMC-1.pdf
diff --git a/Confirmation/figure/klnorm-1.pdf b/Confirmation/figure/klnorm-1.pdf
diff --git a/Confirmation/gradient_ascent.Rnw b/Confirmation/gradient_ascent.Rnw
diff --git a/Confirmation/gradientascent.png b/Confirmation/gradientascent.png
diff --git a/Confirmation/normig.R b/Confirmation/normig.R
diff --git a/Confirmation/norminvg.png b/Confirmation/norminvg.png
diff --git a/Confirmation/paper.Rnw b/Confirmation/paper.Rnw
diff --git a/Confirmation/presentations.Rnw b/Confirmation/presentations.Rnw
diff --git a/Confirmation/presentations.tex b/Confirmation/presentations.tex
diff --git a/Confirmation/references.bib~ b/Confirmation/references.bib~
diff --git a/Confirmation/references2.bib b/Confirmation/references2.bib
diff --git a/Confirmation/state_space_cpp.cpp b/Confirmation/state_space_cpp.cpp
diff --git a/Confirmation/state_space_r.R b/Confirmation/state_space_r.R
diff --git a/Confirmation/statespace.R b/Confirmation/statespace.R
diff --git a/Confirmation/vines.pdf b/Confirmation/vines.pdf
diff --git a/Confirmation/vines.png b/Confirmation/vines.png
diff --git a/Confirmation/vines.tex b/Confirmation/vines.tex
diff --git a/MIVB/DLM_CopVB.R b/MIVB/DLM_CopVB.R
@@ -52,38 +52,8 @@ ELBO = function(unifs, sims, y, thetaDist, xDist, thetaParams, xParams, Vine, N)
   return(elbo/N)
 }
 
-MarginalTransform = function(unifs, thetaDist, xDist, thetaParams, xParams){
-  output = rep(0, length(unifs))
-  for(i in 1:2){
-    if(thetaDist[i]==1){
-      output[i] = qweibull(unifs[i], thetaParams[1, i], thetaParams[2, i])
-    } else if(thetaDist[i]==2){
-      output[i] = qgamma(unifs[i], thetaParams[1, i], thetaParams[2, i])
-    } else if(thetaDist[i]==3){
-      output[i] = qigamma(unifs[i], thetaParams[1, i], thetaParams[2, i])
-    } else {
-      output[i] = qlnorm(unifs[i], thetaParams[1, i], sqrt(thetaParams[2, i]))
-    }
-  }
-  for(i in 3:4){
-    if(thetaDist[i]==1){
-      output[i] = qnorm(unifs[i], tthetaParams[1, i], sqrt(thetaParams[2, i]))
-    } else {
-      output[i] = qt(unifs[i], thetaParams[1, i], thetaParams[2, i], thetaParams[3, i])
-    }
-  }
-  for(i in 5:length(unifs)){
-    if(xDist == 2){
-      output[i] = qnorm(unifs[i], xParams[1, i-4], sqrt(xParams[2, i-4]))
-    } else {
-      output[i] = qt(unifs[i], xParams[1, i-4], xParams[2, i-4], xParams[3, i-4])
-    }
-  }
-  return(output)
-}
-
-LambdaPartial = function(unifs, sims, y, thetaDist, xDist, thetaParams, xParams, Vine, par, i, j){
-  if(par == 'theta'){
+LambdaPartial = function(unifs, sims, y, thetaDist, xDist, thetaParams, xParams, Vine, what, i, j){
+  if(what == 'theta'){
     if(j <= 2){ # SigmaSq parameters on R+
       if(thetaDist[j] == 1){
         if(i == 1){
@@ -127,7 +97,7 @@ LambdaPartial = function(unifs, sims, y, thetaDist, xDist, thetaParams, xParams,
         }
       }
     }
-  } else if(par == 'x'){ 
+  } else if(what == 'x'){ 
     if(xDist == 2){
       if(i == 1){
         score = score of normal wrt mu
@@ -149,7 +119,19 @@ LambdaPartial = function(unifs, sims, y, thetaDist, xDist, thetaParams, xParams,
   return(score*ELBO)
 }
 
-EtaPartial = function(){}
+EtaPartial = function(unifs, sims, y, thetaDist, xDist, thetaParams, xParams, Vine, what, par, i, j){
+
+  if(what == 'TT'){
+
+  } else if(what == 'TX'){
+
+  } else if(what =='XX'){
+
+  }
+  ELBO = PLogDens(y, sims) - QLogDens(unifs, sims, thetaDist, xDist, thetaParams, xParams, Vine)
+  return(score*ELBO)
+
+}
 
 CopulaVB = function(y, S, thetaDist, xDist, thetaParams, xParams, Vine, 
                     M, maxIter, threshold=0.01, alpha=0.01, beta1=0.9, beta2=0.999){

diff --git a/MIVB/DLM_MIVB.R b/MIVB/DLM_MIVB.R
@@ -4,7 +4,6 @@ library(VineCopula)
 library(MASS)
 library(pscl)
 library(distr)
-library(mixtools)
 sourceCpp("DLM_MCMC.cpp")
 source('qSelection.R')
 #source('DLM_CopVB.R')
@@ -49,7 +48,7 @@ MIVB = function(T, S, h, sigmaSqY=1, sigmaSqX=2, phi=0.95, gamma=2, MCMCreps=T*1
     if(h > 1){
       for(t in 2:h){
         XTS = FFUpdatercpp(y[T+S+t-1], phiDraw, gammaDraw, sigyDraw, sigxDraw, XTS[1], XTS[2])
-        ydens[,2] = ydens[,2] + dnorm(ysupport, gammaDraw + phiDraw*XTS[1], sqrt(sigyDraw + phiDraw^2 * XTS[2] + sigxDraw))/500
+        ydens[,t] = ydens[,t] + dnorm(ysupport, gammaDraw + phiDraw*XTS[1], sqrt(sigyDraw + phiDraw^2 * XTS[2] + sigxDraw))/500
       }
     }
   }
@@ -64,13 +63,13 @@ MIVB = function(T, S, h, sigmaSqY=1, sigmaSqX=2, phi=0.95, gamma=2, MCMCreps=T*1
   # Theta
   SigSqYFit = FitPositiveMarginals(MCMC$theta[(MCMCreps/2 + 1):MCMCreps, 1])
   SigSqXFit = FitPositiveMarginals(MCMC$theta[(MCMCreps/2 + 1):MCMCreps, 2])
-  PhiFit = FitRealMarginals(MCMC$theta[(MCMCreps/2 + 1):MCMCreps, 3], truncate=TRUE)
+  PhiFit = FitRealMarginals(MCMC$theta[(MCMCreps/2 + 1):MCMCreps, 3])
   GammaFit = FitRealMarginals(MCMC$theta[(MCMCreps/2 + 1):MCMCreps, 4])
   thetaDist = c(SigSqYFit$AIC, SigSqXFit$AIC, PhiFit$AIC, GammaFit$AIC)
   thetaParams = c(SigSqYFit$params, SigSqXFit$params, PhiFit$params, GammaFit$params)
 
   # Choose distribution for the last few X marginals
-  subset = min(T/20, 25)
+  subset = min(T/10, 15)
   Xfit = list()
   XfitTable = matrix(0, 2, subset)
   for(i in 1:subset){
@@ -83,13 +82,12 @@ MIVB = function(T, S, h, sigmaSqY=1, sigmaSqX=2, phi=0.95, gamma=2, MCMCreps=T*1
     xParams = matrix(0, T+1, 2)
     xParams[,1] = apply(MCMC$x[(MCMCreps/2+1):MCMCreps,1:(T+1)], 2, mean)
     xParams[,2] = apply(MCMC$x[(MCMCreps/2+1):MCMCreps,1:(T+1)], 2, var)
-  } else { # CHANGE THIS
+  } else {
     xParams = matrix(0, T, 3)
     for(i in 1:T){
-      Mixfit = normalmixEM(MCMC$x[(MCMCreps/2+1):MCMCreps,i], k = 2)
-      Xparams[i, 1:2] = Mixfit$mu
-      Xparams[i, 3:4] = Mixfit$sigma^2
-      Xparams[i, 5] = Mixfit$lambda[1]
+      fitT = fitdistr(MCMC$x[(MCMCreps/2+1):MCMCreps,i],
+                      't', list(m=mean(x), s=var(x), df=5))
+      Xparams[i, ] = fitT$estimate
     }
   }
 
@@ -104,6 +102,35 @@ MIVB = function(T, S, h, sigmaSqY=1, sigmaSqX=2, phi=0.95, gamma=2, MCMCreps=T*1
   VineObject = RVineMatrix(Vine$Matrix, Vine$family)
   VineFit = RVineSeqEst(cbind(pobtheta, pobx), VineObject)
 
-  # Run the VB updater to time S
+  # Run the VB updater to time T+S
+  VBfit = CopulaVB(y, S, thetaDist, xDist, thetaParams, xParams, Vine, M, maxIter)
+  unifs = RVineSim(VBfit$Vine, 500)
+  simul = MarginalTransform(unifs, thetaDist, Dist, VBfit$thetaParams, VBfit$xParams)
+  ydensVB = matrix(0, h, 1000)
 
+  # Calculate Density
+  for(i in 1:500){
+    ydensVB[,1] = ydensVB[,1] + dnorm(ysupport, simul[i, 4] + simul[i, 3]*simul[i,T+S+5], 
+                                    sqrt(simul[i,1] + simul[i,2]))/500
+  }
+
+  logscoreVB = rep(0, h)
+  logscoreVB[1] = log(ydensVB[obs[1], 1])
+
+  # Update for forcasting y_{T+S+2:T+S+h}
+  if(h > 1){
+    for(t in 2:h){
+      VBfit = CopulaVB(y[T+S+t], 1, thetaDist, xDist, VBfit$thetaParams, VBfit$xParams, VBfit$Vine, M, maxIter)
+      unifs = RVineSim(VBfit$Vine, 500)
+      simul = MarginalTransform(unifs, thetaDist, Dist, VBfit$thetaParams, VBfit$xParams)
+      for(i in 1:500){
+        ydensVB[,t] = ydensVB[,t] + dnorm(ysupport, simul[i, 4] + simul[i, 3]*simul[i,T+S+5], 
+                                        sqrt(simul[i,1] + simul[i,2]))/500
+
+      }
+      logscoreVB[2] = log(ydensVB[obs[t], t])
+    }
+  }
+
+  return(data.frame(futureY=ysupport[obs], logscoreMCMC, logscoreVB))
 }
diff --git a/Confirmation/Confirmation.Rproj → MIVB/MIVB.Rproj b/Confirmation/Confirmation.Rproj → MIVB/MIVB.Rproj