diff --git a/CLAUDE.md b/CLAUDE.md
index 039cb98..77c9c3b 100644
--- a/CLAUDE.md
+++ b/CLAUDE.md
@@ -104,8 +104,9 @@ Configurable via `cd_seasons()`. Default: standard meteorological (DJF, MAM, JJA
 - `scripts/qa_monthly.R` — month-end QA cross-check
 
 **Misc:**
-- `scripts/rag_build_snow_methodology.R` / `rag_query_snow_methodology.R` — ragnar lit review (#54)
-- `scripts/rag_build_departure_framing.R` — ragnar store for departure framing
+- `scripts/rag_snow_methodology_build.R` / `rag_snow_methodology_query.R` — ragnar lit review (#54)
+- `scripts/rag_departure_framing_build.R` — ragnar store for departure framing
+- Naming: `rag_<topic>_<verb>.R` (`noun_verb`, mirrors the `cd_*` function convention)
 - `data-raw/make_hexsticker.R` — hex sticker (reads from DESCRIPTION)
 - `data-raw/example_*.R` — bundled AOIs + context geodata for vignettes
 
diff --git a/planning/active/findings.md b/planning/active/findings.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..abd9bb6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/planning/active/findings.md
@@ -0,0 +1,598 @@
+# Findings — Lit-review temperature-departure methodology + interpretation backing (#58)
+
+## Issue context (verbatim from #58)
+
+Vignette interpretation paragraphs in `peace-fwcp.Rmd` and
+`kootenay-lake.Rmd` make defensible-sounding claims about temperature
+departure — "warming has accelerated/slowed", "summer daytime maximum
+is the salmonid thermal envelope", "day-night asymmetry shows up here
+unlike X" — but currently land on **zero** peer-reviewed citations
+for those claims. For FWCP fish-passage reporting context, these need
+the same cited backing #53 gave the Snowpack section.
+
+## Scope
+
+First of three sequential climate-departure lit reviews covering the
+non-snow vignette sections (the 3-split: temperature, precipitation +
+drying, interpretation framing). Mirrors the #53 / #54 / v0.1.7
+pattern verbatim:
+
+- Targeted lit search → candidate list of ~10 papers
+- Add to `NewGraphEnvironment/climate` Zotero collection (key
+  `8MH9LCC9`), PDFs first per `/lit-search` policy
+- Build `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` ragnar store
+- Mine for methodology quotes, write `findings.md` with "cite this
+  for that" citation map
+- Vignette citation insertion (the `[@key]` markers) happens on a
+  downstream branch, not here
+
+## Topics to cover
+
+1. Temperature trend methodology — global / NH / BC-specific
+2. Day-night asymmetry (DTR — diurnal temperature range)
+3. Tmax vs tmin trends — the established asymmetry that our AOIs
+   don't always show
+4. Climate→stream-temperature bridge — link from air-temperature
+   departure to salmonid thermal stress (the FWCP fish-passage
+   context bridge)
+5. Per-ecoregion / mountain-vs-interior warming patterns
+6. ERA5-Land temperature validation — bias structure (parallel to
+   snow's Kouki 2023 for SWE)
+
+## State found during plan-mode exploration
+
+### Existing rag-build pattern
+
+`scripts/rag_snow_methodology_build.R` (renamed in this branch's
+Phase 0 from `rag_build_snow_methodology.R`) is the template to mirror:
+- Hardcoded `citationKey -> attachKey` map
+- Reads PDFs from `data/rag/<topic>_pdfs/` (Web-API-downloaded local
+  cache, not `~/Zotero/storage/{attachKey}/` — sidesteps the "download
+  at sync time" Zotero desktop dependency)
+- Writes DuckDB to `data/rag/{topic}_methodology.duckdb` (gitignored)
+- Uses `ragnar` package with `embed_ollama(model = "nomic-embed-text")`
+- Verifies via `n_chunks` and `n_origins` queries
+
+### Existing Zotero entries we can reuse
+
+19 items already in `NewGraphEnvironment/climate` (key `8MH9LCC9`).
+Relevant temperature-side starters:
+- `mora_etal2013` — climate-departure framing (Nature)
+- `hersbach_etal2020` — ERA5 dataset paper
+- `munoz_sabater_etal2021` — ERA5-Land dataset paper
+- `isaak_etal2017` — NorWeST stream-temperature model
+- `dierauer_etal2020` — BC ecoregion snow + streamflow drought
+- `warkentin_etal2022` — BC summer flow + chinook
+- `islam_etal2019` — Fraser flow regime change
+- IPCC AR6 WGI + SYR — global / NH temperature foundational
+
+Already in snow rag, **don't re-add**: `najafi_etal2017` (BC SWE +
+temperature attribution), `yue_wang2002` (MK + autocorrelation).
+Cross-rag queries can reach these without duplication.
+
+### Vignette citation infrastructure status
+
+`vignettes/peace-fwcp.Rmd` already has `bibliography: references.bib`
++ `link-citations: true` from #54. Snow-section `[@key]` markers
+already wired. Temperature/precip/drying interpretation paragraphs
+have **zero `[@key]` markers** — they read as confidently-stated but
+unsupported claims. This issue produces the citation backbone; a
+downstream branch wires the markers in.
+
+## Architecture decisions taken (user-confirmed)
+
+1. **3-split.** Temperature here, precip+drying next, interpretation
+   framing third. BEC tracker (#59) sequenced after.
+2. **Decoupled boundary.** This issue produces ragnar store +
+   findings.md. Vignette `[@key]` insertion happens on a downstream
+   branch.
+3. **Branch parallel to nothing.** No simultaneous branches at
+   present.
+4. **Vignette edits forbidden on this branch** to keep boundary clean.
+5. **Mirror existing rag-build script structure** verbatim — hardcoded
+   map, local PDF cache, Ollama embeddings.
+6. **Naming-convention prep first.** Phase 0 renames existing
+   `rag_build_*.R` / `rag_query_*.R` to `rag_*_build.R` / `rag_*_query.R`
+   (`noun_verb` per cd convention) before adding new files.
+
+## Search log (Phase 1)
+
+Phase 1 ran web searches against publisher landings + DOI lookups
+on the candidate list, plus a deep screen of the 19 existing items
+in the `NewGraphEnvironment/climate` collection (key `8MH9LCC9`).
+All 10 new papers below have confirmed DOIs and identified PDF
+access. Citation keys follow the BBT `firstauthor_etal{year}`
+convention used in the snow lit review (#54).
+
+### Final candidate list — 10 new papers to add
+
+| # | Citation key | Title (truncated) | Journal / Year | DOI | OA route |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 1 | `karl_etal1993` | A New Perspective on Recent Global Warming: Asymmetric Trends of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature | BAMS 74 / 1993 | `10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<1007:ANPORG>2.0.CO;2` | UNL DigitalCommons OA |
+| 2 | `easterling_etal1997` | Maximum and Minimum Temperature Trends for the Globe | Science 277 / 1997 | `10.1126/science.277.5324.364` | Paywalled, RG |
+| 3 | `vose_etal2005` | Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update through 2004 | GRL 32 / 2005 | `10.1029/2005GL024379` | AGU paywalled, RG |
+| 4 | `vincent_etal2018` | Changes in Canada's Climate: Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data | Atmos-Ocean 56 / 2018 | `10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579` | T&F open + Canada.gov hosted |
+| 5 | `pepin_etal2015` | Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world | Nat Clim Chg 5 / 2015 | `10.1038/nclimate2563` | Paywalled, RG |
+| 6 | `rangwala_miller2012` | Climate change in mountains: a review of elevation-dependent warming and its possible causes | Clim Change 114 / 2012 | `10.1007/s10584-012-0419-3` | Springer paywalled, RG |
+| 7 | `wang_etal2012` | ClimateWNA — High-Resolution Spatial Climate Data for Western North America | JAMC 51 / 2012 | `10.1175/JAMC-D-11-043.1` | AMS OA after embargo |
+| 8 | `mantua_etal2010` | Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature… freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State | Clim Change 102 / 2010 | `10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2` | Springer paywalled, RG + UW CIG host |
+| 9 | `eaton_scheller1996` | Effects of climate warming on fish thermal habitat in streams of the United States | L&O 41 / 1996 | `10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.1109` | Wiley paywalled, RG |
+| 10 | `richter_kolmes2005` | Maximum Temperature Limits for Chinook, Coho, and Chum Salmon, and Steelhead Trout in the Pacific Northwest | Rev Fish Sci 13 / 2005 | `10.1080/10641260590885861` | T&F paywalled, **NOAA hosts free PDF** |
+
+### Existing items in `climate` collection — reuse, do not re-add
+
+7 directly relevant existing items (BBT-generated long citation keys
+shown; we may PATCH cleaner overrides via Zotero `extra` field as a
+follow-up cleanup):
+
+| itemKey | BBT key | Year | Why relevant |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `CPJDEZE6` | `mora_etal2013projectedtiming` | 2013 | Climate-departure framing (Nature) |
+| `NXHY5NRA` | `hersbach_etal2020ERA5global` | 2020 | ERA5 dataset paper |
+| `AIR5D4QW` | `munoz-sabater_etal2021ERA5Landstateoftheart` | 2021 | ERA5-Land dataset paper |
+| `LQUDWBT7` | `isaak_etal2017NorWeSTSummer` | 2017 | NorWeST stream-temp model |
+| `G2H2KWQK` | `dierauer_etal2020Climatechange` | 2020 | BC ecoregion drought |
+| `T4V2VX25` | `warkentin_etal2022Lowsummer` | 2022 | BC summer flow + chinook |
+| `KNFBUI5T` | `moore_schindler2022Gettingahead` | 2022 | Climate adaptation salmon |
+
+Other items in collection screened and judged out-of-scope for #58
+(better fits for Issue 2 precip+drying or Issue 3 framing): IPCC AR6
+WGI/SYR (general framing), Pauly/Rodrigues/Alleway shifting-baselines
+(Issue 3 framing), Yokohata 2019 climate-risk viz (peripheral), HYDAT
+(data source not lit), ECCC 2016 climate scenarios report (technical),
+Carbon Credits 2023 (irrelevant), Islam 2019 Fraser flow regimes
+(Issue 2).
+
+### Cross-rag references — already in `data/rag/snow_methodology.duckdb`
+
+These don't need re-adding; the temperature rag's query script can
+optionally cross-query the snow rag for these:
+
+| Citation key | Why relevant for #58 |
+|---|---|
+| `najafi_etal2017` | BC attribution methodology — covers temperature as well as snow |
+| `yue_wang2002` | MK + autocorrelation methodology — applies to all variables, not just snow |
+
+### Topics-vs-papers coverage matrix
+
+| Topic | Primary | Supporting |
+|---|---|---|
+| DTR / day-night asymmetry methodology | `karl_etal1993` | `easterling_etal1997`, `vose_etal2005` |
+| Tmax vs tmin trends globally | `easterling_etal1997` | `vose_etal2005`, `karl_etal1993` |
+| Canadian / BC temperature trends | `vincent_etal2018` | (cross-rag) `najafi_etal2017` |
+| BC-specific climate downscaling | `wang_etal2012` (ClimateWNA) | `vincent_etal2018` |
+| Elevation-dependent warming | `pepin_etal2015` | `rangwala_miller2012` |
+| Climate-departure framing | (existing) `mora_etal2013` | (Issue 3 will deepen) |
+| ERA5 / ERA5-Land grounding | (existing) `munoz-sabater_etal2021` | (existing) `hersbach_etal2020` |
+| Climate→stream-temp bridge | `mantua_etal2010` | (existing) `isaak_etal2017`, (existing) `warkentin_etal2022` |
+| Salmonid thermal envelope | `richter_kolmes2005` | `eaton_scheller1996`, `mantua_etal2010` |
+| BC ecoregion warming patterns | (existing) `dierauer_etal2020` | (Issue 2 will deepen) |
+| Adaptation framing | (existing) `moore_schindler2022` | (Issue 3 will deepen) |
+| Trend test methodology | (cross-rag) `yue_wang2002` | (cross-rag) `najafi_etal2017` |
+
+### PDF acquisition outcome (Phase 2)
+
+Final PDF acquisition was almost entirely user-driven RG downloads —
+NOAA / UNL DigitalCommons / T&F all blocked curl with 403 / Cloudflare
+challenges. Only 1 of the 4 expected OA papers fetched cleanly via
+curl (Wang 2012 ClimateWNA from author's UAlberta page). User
+provided the other 9 via ResearchGate; 2 needed OCR (Karl 1993 image
+scan from 2000-era Acrobat 3.0 import; Richter & Kolmes 2005 27-page
+ProQuest scan). All 10 PDFs are text-layered, in
+`data/rag/temp_methodology_pdfs/`.
+
+### Zotero adds (Phase 2 — completed)
+
+10 papers POSTed to `NewGraphEnvironment/climate` (key `8MH9LCC9`)
+via Web API with PDFs attached. CrossRef-driven metadata; tags
+`temperature-departure-methodology` + `cd-issue-58`. Initial run
+mistakenly stuffed `Citation Key: <clean_key>` into the `extra`
+field; per NGE convention BBT keys are auto-derived not manually
+overridden, so all 10 items were PATCHed to clear the `extra` field
+override. **BBT will generate the actual citation keys after Zotero
+desktop restart** (sync alone doesn't trigger key generation for
+Web-API-created items per CLAUDE.md). soul#43 filed to update
+`/lit-search` + `/zotero-api` skills so future runs avoid the
+override pattern.
+
+| File label (local) | Parent itemKey | Attach itemKey | BBT citation key |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `karl_etal1993` | `2FJQRX6N` | `X2UMWNUB` | `karl_etal1993NewPerspective` |
+| `easterling_etal1997` | `E27RPMRD` | `MI3CH39H` | `easterling_etal1997MaximumMinimum` |
+| `vose_etal2005` | `94VFUHHZ` | `SIAFNGKV` | `vose_etal2005Maximumminimum` |
+| `vincent_etal2018` | `D9H2UQBZ` | `P7QHP3BJ` | `vincent_etal2018ChangesCanadas` |
+| `pepin_etal2015` | `GDFQS8ZB` | `UJVF9IFP` | `pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming` |
+| `rangwala_miller2012` | `376MUXNQ` | `GR9S4I3F` | `rangwala_miller2012Climatechange` |
+| `wang_etal2012` | `NDTB37G6` | `5V7E4CWX` | `wang_etal2012ClimateWNAHighb` |
+| `mantua_etal2010` | `T5Q9MD9E` | `E5DWJAGA` | `mantua_etal2010Climatechange` |
+| `eaton_scheller1996` | `6VBSPJQN` | `72R34DQB` | `eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate` |
+| `richter_kolmes2005` | `4ICU2XDB` | `RTU4TMRG` | `richter_kolmes2005MaximumTemperaturea` |
+
+**Pepin 2015 caveat captured:** CrossRef returned only the corporate
+author "Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group" — no
+individuals — so initial Web API POST landed with empty creators and
+BBT generated `Elevationdependentwarmingmountainregionsworld2015`
+(title-derived). PATCH'd the item to add the 21 individual working-
+group members from the paper's roster (N. Pepin, R. S. Bradley, H. F.
+Diaz, M. Baraer, E. B. Caceres, N. Forsythe, H. Fowler, G. Greenwood,
+M. Z. Hashmi, X. D. Liu, J. R. Miller, L. Ning, A. Ohmura, E. Palazzi,
+I. Rangwala, W. Schöner, I. Severskiy, M. Shahgedanova, M. B. Wang,
+S. N. Williamson, D. Q. Yang). BBT then regenerated to
+`pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming` matching convention.
+
+**BBT plugin compat note:** During Phase 2 a BBT 8.x → BBT 9.x update
+was needed because Zotero (now on Z9) had auto-disabled BBT 8.0.25 as
+incompatible. BBT 9.x line supports Zotero 8/9. After update + Pepin
+authors PATCH, all 10 keys regenerated cleanly. soul#43 is the
+already-filed convention issue; consider folding a "if BBT is disabled,
+re-install matching version" note there too.
+
+The "File label (local)" column doubles as the filename in
+`data/rag/temp_methodology_pdfs/<label>.pdf` and the script
+`pdf_specs` map's `label`. The actual BBT keys (which is what lands
+in the vignette's `[@key]` markers downstream) get captured into the
+table above once Zotero is restarted.
+
+### PDF dedup observation
+
+8 of 10 PDFs returned `{"exists": 1}` from Zotero's S3 — meaning
+Zotero already had identical bytes (md5 match) somewhere in the
+shared S3. Only `karl_etal1993`, `vose_etal2005`, and
+`richter_kolmes2005` were fresh uploads. This is global Zotero S3
+deduplication; each library still has its own attachment record
+pointing at the deduped file. No action required.
+
+### Notes on access
+
+- **AMS journals** (`karl_etal1993`, `wang_etal2012`): 6-month embargo
+  then OA. Both are >>6 months old → freely available via journal
+  landing or DigitalCommons mirrors.
+- **`richter_kolmes2005`:** NOAA hosts a free PDF at
+  `https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/document/2020/Oct/07354626288.pdf` —
+  prefer this over the T&F paywalled landing.
+- **`mantua_etal2010`:** UW Climate Impacts Group hosts a copy
+  alongside the Springer landing.
+- **`vincent_etal2018`:** ECCC / Canada.gov links directly to the T&F
+  full article — likely free access, will verify in Phase 2.
+
+## Methodology quotes by topic (Phase 4 + 5)
+
+Raw retrieval results in `planning/active/temp_methodology_quotes.md`
+(637 lines, 24 queries × top-5 chunks). Synthesis below picks the
+strongest hits per topic and groups them by the literature angle they
+support. Citation labels match the rag-script `pdf_specs` map; the
+actual BBT-auto-derived Zotero keys (which is what lands in vignette
+`[@key]` markers downstream) get captured in the Zotero-adds table
+above once Zotero is restarted.
+
+### DTR / day-night asymmetry (foundational + BC context)
+
+**Methodological precedent.** Karl et al. (1993) is the foundational
+DTR-asymmetry paper; Easterling et al. (1997) and Vose et al. (2005)
+extend the analysis through 2004 with broader land coverage. Vincent
+et al. (2018) confirms the asymmetry holds in Canada specifically.
+
+- `karl_etal1993` (abstract): "the rise of the minimum temperature
+  has occurred at a rate three times that of the maximum temperature
+  during the period 1951–90 (0.84°C versus 0.28°C). The decrease of
+  the diurnal temperature range is approximately equal to the
+  increase of mean temperature. The asymmetry is detectable in all
+  seasons and in most of the regions studied." → Canonical
+  3:1 min:max ratio quote for cd vignette interpretation.
+- `vose_etal2005`: "From 1950–2004, the maximum temperature trend is
+  0.141°C dec−1, the minimum temperature trend is 0.204°C dec−1, and
+  the DTR trend is −0.066°C dec−1." 71% of global land area covered.
+  → Updated trend numbers, methodology continuity from Karl 1993.
+- `vincent_etal2018`: "nighttime very warm and very cold temperatures
+  have warmed more than daytime very warm and very cold temperatures,
+  both in the cold and warm seasons. This result is consistent with
+  greater warming observed at nighttime than during daytime." Canada,
+  1948–2016. → Confirms the asymmetry in our regional context (BC is
+  a Vincent 18 sub-region).
+- `karl_etal1993` (mechanism): cloud cover increases partially
+  explain DTR decrease; sulfate aerosol forcing is "primarily Northern
+  Hemisphere... too uncertain to estimate" relative role; soil
+  moisture, snow cover, RH all modulate DTR. → Mechanism caveats
+  for "why DTR is shrinking" claim.
+- `pepin_etal2015`: "snow–albedo mechanism has a stronger influence
+  on maximum than minimum temperatures because of the increase in
+  absorbed solar radiation"; soil-moisture modulates whether warmth
+  goes to Tmax (sensible-heat partitioning) or Tmin (latent-heat
+  feedback). → Adds mountain-region nuance to the simple DTR story.
+- `rangwala_miller2012` (Table 2): a comprehensive driver-by-driver
+  table summarizing how each climate driver (snow, clouds, humidity,
+  aerosols) shifts Tmax vs Tmin. → Useful reference for vignette
+  interp paragraph that notes "our AOI does/doesn't show the
+  textbook DTR asymmetry."
+
+### Tmax / Tmin trends — global benchmark
+
+- `vose_etal2005`: "minimum temperature increased more rapidly than
+  maximum temperature (0.204 vs 0.141°C dec−1) from 1950–2004,
+  resulting in a significant DTR decrease (−0.066°C dec−1)." Trends
+  larger in NH (greater warming in boreal winter and spring); little
+  Southern Hemisphere seasonality. → Reference rates against which
+  cd's BC AOI rates can be compared.
+- `karl_etal1993` (Table 1): per-country tables of MAX, MIN, DTR
+  trends 1951-1990 for Canada (0.9 / 1.5 / 0.6 °C/100yr annual) and
+  USA (-0.6 / 1.0 / -1.5). → Direct Canada-1990 baseline numbers.
+
+### Canadian / BC temperature trends — direct regional anchor
+
+`vincent_etal2018` is the closest paper in our corpus to cd's BC AOIs
+— it's an ECCC homogenized-data study with explicit BC sub-regional
+results.
+
+- `vincent_etal2018`: "Canada is becoming warmer. The annual mean
+  temperature averaged over land has increased by 1.7°C from 1948
+  to 2012 (Vincent et al., 2015)... summer 95th percentile of tmax
+  has increased by 0.9°C for the 1948–2016 period, whereas the
+  summer 95th percentile of tmin has increased by 1.3°C." → Direct
+  Canadian context for "BC is warming" framing in the vignette
+  interpretation.
+- `vincent_etal2018` (Table 3): provides BC-specific regional trends
+  for ~21 indices (summer days, hot days, hot nights, summer 95th
+  perc. tmax/tmin, frost days, growing season, growing degree-days).
+  → If the vignette wants to compare cd's AOI numbers against a
+  province-wide Vincent 18 benchmark, Table 3 has the values.
+- `vincent_etal2018` (Methods): "The trend calculation followed the
+  methodology presented in Zhang, Vincent, Hogg, and Niitsoo (2000).
+  The estimated magnitude of the trend is based on the slope
+  estimator of Sen (1968), and the statistical significance of the
+  trend is based on the nonparametric Kendall's τ-test (Kendall,
+  1955). Because serial correlation is occasionally present in the
+  climatological time series, the method also uses an iterative
+  procedure to account for the lag-1 autocorrelation of the time
+  series (Wang & Swail, 2001)." → **`cd_trend()` uses identical
+  Sen+MK slope+significance**; only difference is cd's raw form
+  doesn't apply iterative AC handling. See Deviations.
+
+### BC-specific climate downscaling — context
+
+- `wang_etal2012` ClimateWNA: "20 000 surfaces of monthly, seasonal,
+  and annual climate variables from 1901 to 2009; several climate
+  normal periods; and multimodel climate projections for the 2020s,
+  2050s, and 2080s." UBC Forest Conservation Genetics, U Alberta,
+  PCIC. → Contextualizes cd's ERA5-Land approach against the
+  ClimateWNA downscaled-station alternative used by ecosystem
+  classification work in BC. Useful to note the difference: cd
+  reads native-grid ERA5-Land (~9 km, internally consistent across
+  variables) versus ClimateWNA's PRISM-anchored interpolated station
+  product (~800 m, denser station network in populated valleys).
+
+### Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) — mountain context
+
+`pepin_etal2015` and `rangwala_miller2012` both review EDW evidence
+across mountain regions. cd's BC AOIs span 800–3500 m elevation.
+
+- `pepin_etal2015` (abstract): "growing evidence that the rate of
+  warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain
+  environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than
+  environments at lower elevations. Elevation-dependent warming
+  (EDW) can accelerate the rate of change in mountain ecosystems,
+  cryospheric systems, hydrological regimes and biodiversity."
+  → Justifies why cd's per-ecoregion view (which spans elevation
+  bands within an AOI) matters.
+- `pepin_etal2015` (mechanisms): "snow albedo and surface-based
+  feedbacks; water vapour changes and latent heat release; surface
+  water vapour and radiative flux changes; surface heat loss and
+  temperature change; and aerosols. All lead to enhanced warming
+  with elevation (or at a critical elevation)." → Lists the
+  mechanisms that we don't quantify directly but should mention
+  briefly in interp.
+- `rangwala_miller2012` Swiss Alps (Ceppi et al. 2010): "high
+  warming rates during summer (0.46°C/decade) and winter (0.40°C/
+  decade)." Colorado Rockies: "0.5–1°C/decade during the last three
+  decades, but particularly since the mid-1990s." → Reference
+  magnitudes for "BC mountain AOI warmed by X" comparisons.
+- `rangwala_miller2012` (caveat): "it is still uncertain whether
+  mountainous regions generally are warming at a different rate
+  than the rest of the global land surface, or whether
+  elevation-based sensitivities in warming rates are prevalent
+  within mountains." → **Strong caveat** for any "mountains warm
+  faster" claim in the vignette — it's a per-region pattern, not
+  a global rule.
+
+### Climate → stream-temperature → fish thermal stress bridge
+
+This is the citation backbone for the v0.1.1 vignette claim that
+"summer daytime maximum is the temperature envelope for salmonid
+thermal stress in tributaries." Three papers anchor it.
+
+- `eaton_scheller1996` (foundational): "The effects of climate
+  warming on the thermal habitat of 57 species of fish of the U.S.
+  were estimated using results for a doubling of atmospheric carbon
+  dioxide that were predicted by the Canadian Climate Center general
+  circulation model... cold-water and cool-water species are
+  predicted to lose substantially more thermal habitat than
+  warm-water species." → Establishes air-T → stream-T → fish-thermal
+  -habitat chain at continental scale.
+- `mantua_etal2010`: "Simulations predict rising water temperatures
+  will thermally stress salmon throughout Washington's watersheds,
+  becoming increasingly severe later in the twenty-first century...
+  basins strongly influenced by transient runoff (a mix of direct
+  runoff from cool-season rainfall and springtime snowmelt) are most
+  sensitive to climate change... combined effects of warming
+  summertime stream temperatures and altered streamflows will likely
+  reduce the reproductive success for many Washington salmon
+  populations." → PNW-specific bridge, exactly the salmonid
+  thermal-stress framing for FWCP fish-passage reporting.
+- (existing) `isaak_etal2017` (NorWeST): regional stream-temperature
+  model for the western US, predicts broad climate-warming-driven
+  stream-temperature increases. Already in the climate collection;
+  doesn't need adding.
+- (existing) `warkentin_etal2022`: BC-specific chinook-and-summer-
+  flow study — empirical evidence that low summer flows (which
+  warm faster) reduce salmon productivity. Already in collection.
+
+### Salmonid thermal envelope — direct PNW thresholds
+
+- `richter_kolmes2005`: "Maximum Temperature Limits for Chinook,
+  Coho, and Chum Salmon, and Steelhead Trout in the Pacific
+  Northwest... reviews the literature for chinook, coho, chum, and
+  steelhead, which are currently listed in the Columbia River Basin
+  under the Endangered Species Act. Describes specific numeric
+  maximum temperature criteria that can be integrated into a broader
+  recovery planning process for sensitive life stages of three
+  species of Pacific Northwest salmon and steelhead."
+  → **Direct citation for "salmonid thermal envelope" in the cd
+  vignette interp.** PNW species overlap with FWCP Peace + Kootenay
+  AOIs (chinook, coho, steelhead are all present; chum is
+  PNW-coastal not BC-interior).
+- `eaton_scheller1996`: 57 US species, methodology for relating
+  air-T to stream-thermal-habitat for cold/cool/warm-water
+  classifications. → Methodological complement to Richter & Kolmes
+  for cd's "thermal habitat" framing.
+- `mantua_etal2010`: PNW scenarios connect projected warming to
+  specific threshold crossings — basins "transitioning toward more
+  rain-dominant runoff regimes" lose snow-melt thermal buffering.
+
+### Trend methodology (cross-reference with snow rag)
+
+- `vincent_etal2018`: explicit Sen slope + Kendall's τ + lag-1 AC
+  iterative procedure (Wang & Swail 2001) — methodology reference
+  for trend tests on Canadian climate time series. → cd uses raw
+  MK + Theil-Sen (no AC correction); the Vincent 18 procedure adds
+  iterative AC handling. See Deviations.
+- (cross-rag from `data/rag/snow_methodology.duckdb`)
+  `yue_wang2002`: prewhitening fails when a real trend exists
+  (Monte Carlo result); raw MK is the correct call for our 76-year
+  series with strong trends. → Already covered in #54 findings.md.
+  Cross-rag query: "When trend exists in a time series, the effect
+  of positive/negative serial correlation on the MK test is
+  dependent upon sample size, magnitude of serial correlation, and
+  magnitude of trend."
+
+## Cross-cutting methodology
+
+### Baseline window — same as snow
+
+Same conclusion as #54 findings.md: cd's 1951–1980 baseline is
+acceptable for temperature, on the early side relative to the WMO
+1961–1990 normal. The Vincent 18 trend table uses 1948–2016 (no
+fixed baseline, full-record trend). Karl 93 uses 1951–1990. Vose 05
+uses 1950–2004. Pepin 15 / Rangwala 12 don't fix on a single
+baseline. **Heterogeneous in the literature** — our choice is
+defensible and aligns with the snow-side analysis in cd.
+
+### Trend test — raw MK + Theil-Sen vs Vincent 18's AC-iterative form
+
+Vincent 18 explicitly applies iterative lag-1 autocorrelation
+handling (Wang & Swail 2001) on top of Sen slope + Kendall's τ.
+`cd_trend()` does not. Yue & Wang (2002, snow rag) demonstrates
+that **prewhitening hurts when a real trend exists** — for cd's
+76-year series with strong climate trends, raw MK is correct.
+Whether the iterative-AC procedure differs meaningfully from
+prewhitening (i.e., is Vincent's procedure trend-aware?) is a
+secondary methodology question, possibly motivating #43 if it
+becomes important. For now, raw MK + Theil-Sen is the right call
+and Vincent 18's results are still directly comparable since their
+AC correction effect is small for shorter records (their statement:
+"serial correlation is *occasionally* present").
+
+### ERA5-Land 2m temperature validation
+
+**No paper in our 10-paper corpus directly validates ERA5-Land
+2m temperature against in-situ observations for cd's BC AOIs.**
+This is a notable gap. Available alternatives:
+
+- (existing) `munoz_sabater_etal2021`: ERA5-Land dataset paper
+  validates ERA5-Land vs ground truth at limited "fluxnet" sites
+  for various land-surface variables; 2m T is a forcing, not the
+  focus.
+- `karl_etal1993` + `vose_etal2005` + `vincent_etal2018` provide
+  station-based trend benchmarks against which cd's ERA5-Land
+  trends can be qualitatively cross-checked. We can claim
+  consistency if our BC-mean trends fall within the bands
+  reported by Vincent 18 for the BC sub-region.
+- `kouki_etal2023` (snow rag) validates SWE; suggests bias is
+  approximately stable over time. By extension (not directly
+  established), cd's temperature trends are likely interpretable
+  even if absolute biases exist.
+
+**Recommendation for the vignette interp:** note this as a
+known caveat. A targeted ERA5-Land 2m T validation against ECCC
+homogenized stations (Vincent 18's source dataset) would
+strengthen the methodology — possible follow-up issue if
+reviewers push back.
+
+## Deviations from consensus
+
+1. **UTC-day vs local-day tmax/tmin (issue #37).** cd's tmax/tmin
+   currently uses UTC-day boundaries on hourly ERA5-Land. Vincent
+   18 + Karl 93 use station-day (local time). For BC longitudes
+   (UTC-7 to UTC-8), the UTC-day boundary cuts mid-afternoon local
+   — almost certainly biases tmax low (since the warmest local
+   afternoon may be split across two UTC days). #37 tracks the fix.
+   Document briefly in vignette interp; flag the magnitude as
+   pending #37 quantification.
+
+2. **Raw MK + Theil-Sen vs Vincent 18's AC-iterative procedure.**
+   Yue & Wang 2002 (snow rag) supports raw MK for our case
+   (76-year strong-trend series). Vincent 18's AC-iterative is more
+   conservative; potentially flagged in #43 if a window-vs-window
+   p-value motivates revisiting the trend test. Defensible as-is.
+
+3. **No direct ERA5-Land 2m T validation paper for BC.** Cross-
+   referenced via Vincent 18 / Karl 93 / Vose 05 trend benchmarks
+   instead. Document as a known caveat in interp; possible follow-up
+   issue.
+
+4. **DTR asymmetry magnitude in cd's BC AOIs may not match the
+   global 3:1 (Karl 93) or 1.45:1 (Vose 05).** Mountain regions
+   (Pepin 15, Rangwala 12) show heterogeneous Tmin/Tmax response
+   depending on snow-albedo / soil-moisture state. cd's per-AOI
+   results may not show the textbook signal — that's interpretable
+   given the AOI-specific climate state, not a methodology problem.
+   This is the v0.1.1 honest framing: "the textbook day-night
+   asymmetry doesn't show at Kootenay Lake — the dominant signal is
+   summer daytime maximum."
+
+## Philosophy for downstream wire-up (read this first)
+
+This findings.md is a **library**, not a prescription. The downstream
+vignette branch draws sparingly:
+
+- Cite an authority only when the finding actually surfaces in the
+  AOI's graphs/tables. Don't decorate prose with concepts that
+  don't appear in the data.
+- Plain language. Spell out acronyms on first use (DTR = diurnal
+  temperature range; EDW = elevation-dependent warming; FWCP = Fish
+  and Wildlife Compensation Program).
+- The vignette interpretation educates a fish-passage planner on the
+  state of science — it doesn't read like a peer-reviewed paper.
+- Cross-region anomalies worth mentioning are ones a reviewer would
+  push back on if they weren't acknowledged. Otherwise leave them out.
+- Cross-region comparisons go in PR descriptions, not vignette prose
+  — vignettes are stand-alone (per memory).
+
+## "Cite this for that" — citation map for downstream vignette wiring
+
+Copy-paste-ready map. Each row gives a vignette claim type and the
+BBT-auto-derived Zotero citation key(s) that ground it. Cross-rag
+references (snow rag) noted explicitly.
+
+The downstream branch will use only a small subset of these rows —
+whichever map onto findings actually visible in the AOI's
+plots/tables. The map below is a menu, not an order.
+
+| Claim type | Primary citation | Supporting |
+|---|---|---|
+| DTR asymmetry methodology + 3:1 min:max ratio | `@karl_etal1993NewPerspective` | `@vose_etal2005Maximumminimum`, `@easterling_etal1997MaximumMinimum` |
+| Updated 1950–2004 trends (0.141 / 0.204 / -0.066 °C/dec) | `@vose_etal2005Maximumminimum` | `@karl_etal1993NewPerspective` |
+| Canada warming 1.7°C 1948–2012 + BC sub-region indices | `@vincent_etal2018ChangesCanadas` | — |
+| Sen + Kendall's τ for Canadian temp trends | `@vincent_etal2018ChangesCanadas` | (cross-rag) `@yue_wang2002Applicabilityprewhitening` |
+| Mountain elevation-dependent warming exists | `@pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming` | `@rangwala_miller2012Climatechange` |
+| EDW mechanisms (snow-albedo, water vapour, etc.) | `@pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming` | `@rangwala_miller2012Climatechange` (Table 2) |
+| Caveat: EDW is heterogeneous, not universal | `@rangwala_miller2012Climatechange` | `@pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming` |
+| Air-T → stream-T → salmon thermal stress (continental) | `@eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate` | `@mantua_etal2010Climatechange` |
+| PNW salmon climate-stress framing | `@mantua_etal2010Climatechange` | (existing) `@isaak_etal2017NorWeSTSummer`, (existing) `@warkentin_etal2022Lowsummer` |
+| Salmonid maximum-temperature criteria PNW | `@richter_kolmes2005MaximumTemperaturea` | `@eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate` |
+| ClimateWNA / ClimateNA reference (BC downscaling alternative) | `@wang_etal2012ClimateWNAHighb` | — |
+| Climate-departure framing (cumulative-impact, recent-variability) | (existing) `@mora_etal2013projectedtiming` | (Issue 3 framing review) |
+| ERA5 / ERA5-Land dataset citations | (existing) `@munoz-sabater_etal2021ERA5Landstateoftheart` | (existing) `@hersbach_etal2020ERA5global` |
+| BC ecoregion / drought patterns | (existing) `@dierauer_etal2020Climatechange` | — |
+| BC summer flow + chinook empirical link | (existing) `@warkentin_etal2022Lowsummer` | — |
+| Climate adaptation salmon framing | (existing) `@moore_schindler2022Gettingahead` | — |
+| BC SWE attribution (cross-reference) | (cross-rag) `@najafi_etal2017AttributionObserved` | — |
+| Why no prewhitening (raw MK is correct) | (cross-rag) `@yue_wang2002Applicabilityprewhitening` | — |
diff --git a/planning/active/progress.md b/planning/active/progress.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f0cf054
--- /dev/null
+++ b/planning/active/progress.md
@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+# Progress — Lit-review temperature-departure methodology + interpretation backing (#58)
+
+## Session 2026-05-05
+
+- Filed #58 (temperature lit review, Issue 1 of 3-split)
+- Filed #59 (BEC tracker, sequenced after 3-split)
+- Plan-mode exploration — phases approved by user. Naming-convention
+  rename added as Phase 0 prep
+- Created branch `58-temperature-lit-review` off main
+- Scaffolded PWF baseline from issue #58 with approved phases
+- Phase 0 done: renamed `rag_build_*.R` / `rag_query_*.R` →
+  `rag_*_build.R` / `rag_*_query.R` (3 scripts); updated docstrings,
+  CLAUDE.md, snow archive README. Left NEWS.md + archive
+  task_plan/findings/progress untouched as historical records
+- Phase 1 done: 10 new candidate papers identified (DOI + OA status
+  confirmed); 7 existing climate-collection items + 2 cross-rag from
+  snow flagged for reuse without re-adding. Coverage matrix in
+  findings.md spans all 12 topical threads
+- Phase 2 done: 10 papers POSTed to NewGraphEnvironment/climate via
+  Web API; PDFs attached via S3 (3 fresh uploads, 7 md5-deduped).
+  PATCH'd all 10 to clear manual Citation Key override per BBT-auto-
+  derived NGE convention (soul#43 filed to update lit-search +
+  zotero-api skills). 2 PDFs needed OCR (Karl 93, Richter 05).
+  Parent itemKey + attachKey table in findings.md
+- **User action pending: restart Zotero desktop** so BBT generates
+  citation keys for the 10 new items (sync alone doesn't trigger key
+  generation for Web-API-created items)
+- Phase 3 done: scripts/rag_temp_methodology_build.R cloned from
+  snow build script with 10-paper pdf_specs map; built
+  data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb (677 chunks, 10 sources, ~28 s).
+  Sanity-tested retrieval on a DTR query — returns expected papers
+- Phase 4 done: scripts/rag_temp_methodology_query.R written; 24
+  queries × top-5 chunks = 120 candidates captured to
+  planning/active/temp_methodology_quotes.md (637 lines)
+- Phase 5 done: synthesis section in findings.md covers 8 topics
+  with selected quotes; cross-cutting methodology + 4 deviations
+  + 18-row "cite this for that" map. Philosophy preface added per
+  user feedback (vignette uses citations sparingly for findings
+  visible in graphs/tables; library not prescription). Memory
+  saved: feedback_vignette_citations_sparse.md
+- BBT keys captured for all 10 new items after Zotero restart +
+  BBT plugin update (8.0.25 → 9.x; Z8/9 line). Pepin 2015 needed
+  authors-PATCH first because CrossRef returned only the corporate
+  Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group name with no
+  individuals; added the 21 working-group members so BBT could
+  generate the conventional pepin_etal2015* key. findings.md
+  Phase 2 table + cite-this-for-that map updated to use the
+  full BBT keys
+- Next: Phase 6 — /code-check, push branch, open PR (Fixes #58,
+  SRED tag in body), /planning-archive after merge, release v0.2.2
diff --git a/planning/active/task_plan.md b/planning/active/task_plan.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..688afcd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/planning/active/task_plan.md
@@ -0,0 +1,197 @@
+# Task: Lit-review temperature-departure methodology + interpretation backing (#58)
+
+## Problem
+
+Vignette interpretation paragraphs in `vignettes/peace-fwcp.Rmd` and
+`vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd` make defensible-sounding claims about
+temperature departure — "warming has accelerated/slowed", "summer
+daytime maximum is the salmonid thermal envelope", "day-night
+asymmetry shows up here unlike X" — but currently land on **zero**
+peer-reviewed citations for those claims. For FWCP fish-passage
+reporting context, these need the same cited backing #53/#54/v0.1.7
+gave the Snowpack section.
+
+## Scope
+
+First of three sequential climate-departure lit reviews covering the
+non-snow vignette sections (the 3-split: temperature, precipitation +
+drying, interpretation framing). Mirrors the #53 / #54 / v0.1.7
+pattern verbatim:
+
+- Targeted lit search → candidate list of ~10 papers
+- Add to `NewGraphEnvironment/climate` Zotero collection (key
+  `8MH9LCC9`), PDFs first per `/lit-search` policy
+- Build `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` ragnar store
+- Mine for methodology quotes; write `findings.md` with "cite this
+  for that" map
+- Vignette `[@key]` insertion happens on a downstream branch, not here
+
+A 4th issue (#59, BEC zone shifts) is filed as a tracker; sequenced
+after the 3-split.
+
+## Phase 0 — Naming-convention rename (prep)
+
+Mechanical `git mv` to switch existing rag scripts to `noun_verb`
+order so the directory reads cleanly. One atomic commit, easy review.
+
+- [x] `git mv scripts/rag_build_snow_methodology.R scripts/rag_snow_methodology_build.R`
+- [x] `git mv scripts/rag_query_snow_methodology.R scripts/rag_snow_methodology_query.R`
+- [x] `git mv scripts/rag_build_departure_framing.R scripts/rag_departure_framing_build.R`
+- [x] Update internal docstring usage examples in each renamed script
+- [x] Update CLAUDE.md script references
+- [x] Update archived references (`planning/archive/2026-05-issue-53-snow-lit-review/README.md`
+      — left task_plan/findings/progress as-is since they're historical records)
+- [x] Atomic commit: "Rename rag scripts to noun_verb convention"
+
+## Phase 1 — Targeted literature search
+
+- [x] Web search candidate papers for DOI + access status; refined
+      candidate list to **10 confirmed new papers**
+- [x] Identified paywalled vs OA: 4 OA-fetchable (Karl 93, Wang 12
+      ClimateWNA, Vincent 18, Richter & Kolmes 05 via NOAA), 6 require
+      user RG download (Easterling 97, Vose 05, Pepin 15, Rangwala 12,
+      Mantua 10, Eaton & Scheller 96)
+- [x] Cross-checked existing 19 items in the `climate` Zotero
+      collection: 7 reuse-relevant for #58 (`mora_etal2013`, ERA5/
+      ERA5-Land, NorWeST, Dierauer 20 BC ecoregions, Warkentin 22,
+      Moore 22), 2 cross-rag references from snow rag (`najafi_etal2017`,
+      `yue_wang2002`); rest screened out as Issue 2/3 fits or peripheral
+- [x] Documented final candidate list with citation key + DOI + access
+      status + topical coverage matrix in `findings.md`
+
+Starting candidate list (will refine):
+
+| Citation key | Topic / Why |
+|---|---|
+| `karl_etal1993` | Foundational DTR paper (BAMS) — day-night asymmetry origin |
+| `easterling_etal1997` | Tmax vs tmin trends globally (Science) — direct follow-up to Karl 93 |
+| `vose_etal2005` | DTR over land 1950-2004 update (GRL) |
+| `vincent_etal2018` (or current) | Canadian temperature trends — BC context |
+| `wang_etal2014` ClimateNA | BC-specific historical temp downscaling |
+| `mantua_etal2010` | PNW climate impacts on salmon (Climatic Change) |
+| `eaton_scheller1996` | Salmonid stream-temp thermal limits (L&O) — classic |
+| `isaak_etal2017` | NorWeST stream-temp model — *already in collection* |
+| `pepin_etal2015` | Elevation-dependent warming (Nature Climate Change) |
+| `rangwala_miller2012` | Mountain climate change review (Climatic Change) |
+| `mauger_etal2015` | PNW Climate Impacts Assessment |
+| `mora_etal2013` | Climate-departure framing — *already in collection* |
+| `najafi_etal2017` | BC attribution — *already in snow rag* |
+
+## Phase 2 — Add to NewGraphEnvironment/climate Zotero collection
+
+- [x] For each of 10 candidates: CrossRef metadata fetch → POST to
+      Web API with `"collections": ["8MH9LCC9"]`, tags
+      `temperature-departure-methodology` + `cd-issue-58`
+- [x] PDF acquisition: 1 fetched via curl (Wang 12 from UAlberta),
+      9 user-provided via ResearchGate; 2 OCR'd (Karl 93, Richter &
+      Kolmes 05)
+- [x] Auto-attach all 10 PDFs via 4-step S3 upload (3 fresh uploads,
+      7 deduped via md5)
+- [x] PATCH all 10 items to clear `Citation Key: ...` override from
+      `extra` field — BBT auto-derives keys per NGE convention; soul#43
+      filed to update `/lit-search` + `/zotero-api` skills
+- [x] Captured per-paper `parent itemKey + attachment key` in
+      `findings.md`
+- [x] PDFs mirrored into `data/rag/temp_methodology_pdfs/` for
+      ragnar ingestion (gitignored)
+- [x] **Captured all 10 BBT-auto citation keys** after Zotero restart
+      + BBT plugin update from 8.0.25 to 9.x (Z8/9 line); Pepin 2015
+      required a creators-PATCH to seed the working-group authors
+      since CrossRef returned only the corporate name. Final keys
+      mapped in findings.md Phase 2 table
+
+## Phase 3 — Build ragnar DuckDB store
+
+- [x] Cloned `scripts/rag_snow_methodology_build.R` →
+      `scripts/rag_temp_methodology_build.R`. Adapted header
+      docstring + 10-paper `pdf_specs` map
+- [x] Ran `Rscript scripts/rag_temp_methodology_build.R` — built
+      `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` with **677 chunks across
+      10 sources** via Ollama `nomic-embed-text` (~28 s)
+- [x] Verified retrieval: query for "diurnal temperature range
+      minimum maximum asymmetry" returns sensible top-3 chunks
+      (Karl 93 abstract + DTR variable construction, Rangwala &
+      Miller 12 alpine trends, Vincent 18 nighttime asymmetry)
+
+## Phase 4 — Mine the store for methodology quotes
+
+- [x] Wrote `scripts/rag_temp_methodology_query.R` mirroring the
+      snow query script. 8 topics × 3 queries × top-5 chunks =
+      120 candidate chunks total
+- [x] Topics covered: DTR asymmetry, Tmax/Tmin globe, Canadian/BC
+      trends, BC downscaling, EDW, climate-stream-temp bridge,
+      salmonid thermal envelope, trend methodology
+- [x] Raw retrieval saved to `planning/active/temp_methodology_quotes.md`
+      (637 lines)
+- [x] Synthesized per-topic into `findings.md` (Phase 5)
+
+## Phase 5 — Synthesis + citation map
+
+- [x] In `findings.md`: methodology-quotes-by-topic section covering
+      all 8 topics with selected quotes per paper
+- [x] Cross-cutting methodology section: baseline window (same as
+      snow), trend test (Vincent 18's AC-iterative vs cd's raw MK,
+      Yue & Wang 02 supports our approach), ERA5-Land 2m T validation
+      (gap noted, alternatives proposed)
+- [x] Deviations section — 4 documented deviations: UTC-day tmax/tmin
+      (#37), raw MK vs Vincent 18's AC-iterative, no direct ERA5-Land
+      2m T validation paper, regional DTR-asymmetry magnitude may
+      not match global ratio
+- [x] **"Cite this for that"** map — 18-row claim → citation
+      lookup, framed as a menu not an order. Downstream branch picks
+      sparingly per the plain-language philosophy (memory:
+      `feedback_vignette_citations_sparse.md`)
+- [x] Documented existing items in `climate` collection (7 reuse-
+      relevant) + 2 cross-rag references from snow rag
+- [x] Philosophy preface added to findings.md: this is a library
+      not a prescription; downstream cites authorities sparingly
+      for findings visible in AOI graphs/tables
+
+## Phase 6 — PR + release
+
+- [ ] `/code-check` clean before each commit
+- [ ] Atomic commits — Phase 0 rename, Phase 1 search log, Phase 2
+      Zotero adds summary, Phase 3 build script, Phases 4–5
+      findings.md
+- [ ] PR with `Fixes #58`. SRED tag (`Relates to NewGraphEnvironment/sred-2025-2026#23`)
+      in PR body, **not** issue
+- [ ] After merge: `/planning-archive` → archived findings.md becomes
+      long-lived methodology reference. Bump v0.2.1 → v0.2.2
+
+## Validation
+
+- [ ] `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` exists; `ragnar_retrieve()`
+      returns sensible chunks for each topic query
+- [ ] 8–12 papers in `climate` Zotero collection with PDFs attached,
+      all tagged `temperature-departure-methodology` + `cd-issue-58`
+- [ ] `findings.md` has methodology quotes attributed by citation key
+      for each of the 8 query topics
+- [ ] PWF checkboxes match landed work
+- [ ] `devtools::test()` clean (script-only changes shouldn't break
+      package tests, but verify)
+- [ ] Atomic-commits audit: `git log --oneline -- planning/ scripts/rag_*.R`
+      tells the full story
+
+## Out of scope
+
+- **Snowpack methodology** — covered by #53/#54
+- **Precipitation + drying** — Issue 2 of the 3-split (forthcoming)
+- **Interpretation framing** — Issue 3 of the 3-split (forthcoming)
+- **BEC zone shifts** — #59 tracker (post-3-split)
+- **Vignette `[@key]` insertion** — downstream consumer branch, not
+  this one
+- **Original methodology research** — refining `cd_trend()` / new
+  metric proposals
+- **Updating `vignettes/references.bib`** — also downstream consumer
+
+## Notes for execution
+
+- Branch: `58-temperature-lit-review`
+- Vignette edits forbidden on this branch
+- Zotero state lives outside the repo. Citation keys hardcoded in the
+  R script's map → reproducible
+- Ollama prerequisite: `ollama serve` + `ollama pull nomic-embed-text`
+- Existing 19 climate-collection items to screen first — likely
+  reusable: `mora_etal2013`, `hersbach_etal2020`,
+  `munoz_sabater_etal2021`, `isaak_etal2017`, `dierauer_etal2020`,
+  `warkentin_etal2022`, `islam_etal2019`, IPCC AR6 (WGI, SYR)
diff --git a/planning/active/temp_methodology_quotes.md b/planning/active/temp_methodology_quotes.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..4666504
--- /dev/null
+++ b/planning/active/temp_methodology_quotes.md
@@ -0,0 +1,637 @@
+# Temperature methodology — RAG retrieval results
+
+Generated: 2026-05-05 10:13:47
+Store: /Users/airvine/Projects/repo/cd/data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb (677 chunks, 10 sources)
+
+Each section contains top-5 chunks (cosine similarity) for the
+queries below. Use these to extract exact-page quotes for the
+vignette temperature interp paragraphs (downstream consumer branch).
+
+## dtr_asymmetry
+
+### Query: "diurnal temperature range minimum maximum asymmetric trends methodology"
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> AN AMS CONTINUING SERIESTHIS ARTICLE IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OFARTICLES REPORTING ON THE U. S. GLOBALCHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM AND INTERNA-TIONAL GLOBAL CHANGE ACTIVITIES WITHPARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE WORLD CLIMATERESEARCH PROGRAM, THE INTERNATIONALGEOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE PROGRAM,AND THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBALENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PROGRAM.THE ARTICLES ARE SELECTED IN COOPERATIONWITH THE BOARD ON GLOBAL CHANGE, BUT DONOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE OPINIONS OFTHE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES,NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL, OR THEAMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY.©1993 American Meteorological SocietyBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyA New Perspective onRecent Global Warming:Asymmetric Trendsof Daily Maximumand MinimumTemperatureThomas R. Karl,* Philip D. Jones,*Richard W. Knight,* George Kukla,®Neil Plummer,** Vyacheslav Razuvayev,**Kevin P. Gallo,* Janette Lindseay,??Robert J. Charlson,***and Thomas C. Peterson”AbstractMonthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for over50% (10%) of the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass,accounting for 37% of the global landmass, indicate that the rise ofthe minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three times that ofthe maximum temperatu...
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.256)
+
+> Taste 1. Trends of temperature (°C/100 yr) for annual and three-month mean maximum (MAX), minimum (MIN), and diurnal temperaturerange (DTR) based on a weighted average of the regions (by country) in Fig. 1. Additionally, trends significant at the 0.01 level (two-tailedt test) are double underlined and those significant at the 0.05 level are single underlined. Trends with significant change points are denotedwith an asterisk. The number of stations used to calculate the trends (in parentheses) and the time period relative to the trends is givenfor each country. PRC is the People’s Republic of China, USA the contiguous United States of America, E. Australia the eastern halfof Australia, USSR the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, and S. Africa the Republic of South Africa.ALASKA (39) 1951-1990Seasons MAX MIN DTRD-J-F 6.0 8.8 -2.8M-A-M 3.1 6.3 -3.2Jo-A 0.9 2.4* 15S-O-N -1.4 0.4 -1.9"ANNUAL 2.1 4.5 -2.4CANADA (227) 1952-1990Seasons MAX MIN DTRD-J-F 1.8 2.1 -0.2M-A-M 3.7 3.8 -0.1J-U-A 0.5 1.4 -0.9S-O-N -2.2 -1.2 -1.0ANNUAL 0.9 15 0.6"USA (494) 1951-1990Seasons MAX MIN DTRD-J-F ~2.3 0.7 1.5M~A-M 2.3 2.5 0.2J-J-A -0.3* 1.0" -1.4S-O-N -1.7 1.3 -3.0ANNUAL —0.6* 1.0 -1.5SUDAN (15) 1...
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> 3. Time series of the temperature anomalies of the annualmean maximum, minimum, and diurnal temperature range for 37%of the global landmass (areas shaded in Fig. 1). Smooth curve is anine-point binomial filter with “padded” ends.Vol. 74, No. 6, June 1993 --- Temperature Anomalles (°C}coJisU.S.S.R.Maximum TemperatureAnnuat (Jan - Dec)-2 T rT1935, 1945 1955Temperature Anomalies (°C)U.S.S.R.Minimum TemperatureAnnual! (Jan - Dec)1945 1965Temperature Anomalies (°C)fe}U.S,S.A.Temperature RangeAnnual (Jan - Dec)-141935 1945 1965 1965,Years1975 1985,Ss+ea2aE2<q52aoéeU.S.A.Maximum TemperatureAnnual (Jan - Dec)-24 TTT TT r TE ETD1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990Years24onQa3|—94qt of22&oa5eoMinimum TemperatureAnnual (Jan - Dec)-21900191041920 1930 1940 1950years1960 1970 1980 i990.Temperature Anomalies (°C)corTemperature RangeAnnual (Jan - Dec)—1900arama T TOT Te ee OT v1930. 1940, 1950 1960 1970 1980,Years;1910 4920 1980Fic. 4. Time series of the variations of the annual mean maximum, minimum, and diurnal temperature range for the contiguous UnitedStates and the former USSR. Smooth curve is the same as Fig. 3 and trends since 1951 are depicted by the dashed line.a fixed netwo...
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.270)
+
+> _Diumal temperature. range (daily max-daily min) DTA A change in sign of the partial correla-Snow cover (binary, if snow depth 2.54 cm) SNOW tion coefficient of SNOW with the DTR“Mean relative humidity (0600 LST and 1500 LST) RH (Fig. 8b) suggests that the fength of nightMean wind speed (0600 LST and 1500 LST) ws relative to the TRAD is a significant factorMean sky cover (0600. LST and 1500 LST) SKY when considering the impact of changesMean ceiling (0600 LST and 1500 LST) CIG in snow cover on the DTR. In the northernShae : - United States, around the winter solstice,» Total daily top of the atmosphere solar radiation TRAD TRADis relatively low. Snowonthe groundDay-to-day temperature differences at this time of the year is important be-(ITMP,-TMP_,| + TMP,-TMP,I) ATMPcause of its excellent insulation (reducespartitioned by TRAD. Figure 8b provides strong evi-dence to suggest that the relationships change withthe amount of TRAD. In particular, the partial correla-tion coefficients of RH, WS, and SKY become strongeras TRAD (and thus temperature) increases. Thisprobably has more to do with a reduction of themaximum temperature than an increase of the mini-mum. During daylight hours hi...
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.258)
+
+> Nature, 347, 169-172.Karl, T. R., G. Kukla, and J. Gavin, 1984: Decreasing diurnaltemperature range in the United States and Canada from 194 1-1980. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23, 1489-1504.—-, ——, and ——,, 1986a: Relationship between temperaturerange and precipitation trends in the United States and Canada1941-80. JU. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 1878-1886.—, C.N. Williams, Jr., and P. J. Young, 1986b: A model toestimate the time of observation bias associated with meanmonthly maximum, minimum and mean temperatures for theUnited States. J. Climate Appi. Meteor., 25, 145-160.—-,H.F. Diaz, and G. Kukla, 1988: Urbanization: Its detection andeffect in the United States climate record. J. Climate, 1, 1099-1123.—-, C.N. Williams, F. T. Quinlan, and T. A. Boden, 1990: UnitedStates Historical Climatology Network (HCN) Serial Tempera-ture and Precipitation Data. U.S. Dept. of Energy, ORNL/CDIAC-30 NDP-019/RI 83 pp. plus appendixes. :——, G. Kukla, V. N. Razuvayev, M. J. Changery, R. G. Quayle, R.R. Heim, Jr., D. R. Easterling, and C. B. Fu, 1991: GlobalVol. 74, No. 6, June 1993 --- warming: Evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change.Geophys. Res. Lett, 18, 2253-2256.Kruss, P. O., K. A....
+
+### Query: "minimum temperature warming faster than maximum nighttime daytime"
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.305)
+
+> Knight,* George Kukla,®Neil Plummer,** Vyacheslav Razuvayev,**Kevin P. Gallo,* Janette Lindseay,??Robert J. Charlson,***and Thomas C. Peterson”AbstractMonthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for over50% (10%) of the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass,accounting for 37% of the global landmass, indicate that the rise ofthe minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three times that ofthe maximum temperature during the period 1951-90 (0.84°C ver-sus 0.28°C). The decrease of the diurnal temperature range isapproximately equal to the increase of mean temperature. Theasymmetry is detectable in all seasons and in most of the regionsstudied.The decrease in the daily temperature range is partially relatedto increases in cloud cover. Furthermore, a large number of atmo-spheric and surface boundary conditions are shown to differentiallyaffect the maximum and minimum temperature. Linkages of theobserved changes in the diurnal temperature range to large-scaleclimate forcings, such as anthropogenic increases in sulfate aero-sols, greenhouse gases, or biomass burning (smoke), remaintentative. Nonetheless, the observed decrease of the diurnal tem-perature range is clearly important, bot...
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.288)
+
+> _Diumal temperature. range (daily max-daily min) DTA A change in sign of the partial correla-Snow cover (binary, if snow depth 2.54 cm) SNOW tion coefficient of SNOW with the DTR“Mean relative humidity (0600 LST and 1500 LST) RH (Fig. 8b) suggests that the fength of nightMean wind speed (0600 LST and 1500 LST) ws relative to the TRAD is a significant factorMean sky cover (0600. LST and 1500 LST) SKY when considering the impact of changesMean ceiling (0600 LST and 1500 LST) CIG in snow cover on the DTR. In the northernShae : - United States, around the winter solstice,» Total daily top of the atmosphere solar radiation TRAD TRADis relatively low. Snowonthe groundDay-to-day temperature differences at this time of the year is important be-(ITMP,-TMP_,| + TMP,-TMP,I) ATMPcause of its excellent insulation (reducespartitioned by TRAD. Figure 8b provides strong evi-dence to suggest that the relationships change withthe amount of TRAD. In particular, the partial correla-tion coefficients of RH, WS, and SKY become strongeras TRAD (and thus temperature) increases. Thisprobably has more to do with a reduction of themaximum temperature than an increase of the mini-mum. During daylight hours hi...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> 3.2 The Swiss Alps Historically, the Swiss Alps may be the best observed among high mountain regions (e.g., Beniston et al. 1997). However, even here the climate at higher elevations (above 3000 m) is Fig. 3 Mean annual temperature trend magnitudes, between 1948– 2002, for different mean annual temperature bands from 1084 mountain stations described in Pepin and Lundquist 2008 (Fig. 2c in Pepin and Lundquist 2008). Trend magnitudes are generally higher for regions asso- ciated with -5 – 0°C and 0 – 5°C temperature bands --- Climatic Change not adequately observed. The 20th century warming in the Alps has been greater than the global and hemispheric (land and ocean combined) average (Beniston et al. 1994; Beniston et al. 1997; Ceppi et al. 2010). There is, however, a diurnal asymmetry in the warming because minimum temperatures have risen at a higher rate than maximum temperatures. In fact, the daytime maximum temperatures in the Swiss Alps experienced a cooling trend in the 1980s (Beniston et al. 1994). Beniston and Rebetez (1996) reported altitudinal gradients in nighttime warming anomalies during winter. Using observations from 88 stations in the Swiss Alps, they found greater in...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Global analysis of observed temperature trends in mountain regions by Pepin and Lundquist (2008) suggest that the warming rates are strongest near the annual 0°C isotherm (Fig. 3), which could imply a role of the snow/ice albedo feedback mechanism causing enhanced warming at these elevations. 4.2 Cloud cover Clouds are still arguably the most uncertain component of global climate model simulations of greenhouse gas scenarios because of their impact on both shortwave and longwave radiation. Changes in cloud cover and cloud optical depth strongly modulate both insolation and longwave radiation at the surface. Daytime decreases in cloud cover and optical depth will enhance the maximum temperature; however such a trend at night may lower the minimum temperature. Conversely, nighttime increases in cloud cover will cause increases in the minimum temperature. Although it’s likely that changes in clouds are partly respon- sible for some of the temperature trends found in section 3, observational datasets of clouds are generally insufficient to resolve their local impact on climate. Assessing changes in clouds and quantifying cloud feedbacks will remain challenging in the near term. For the...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> result of relocation and closure of traditional manual obser- vation stations and the introduction of automated systems. Work is in progress for joining past manual and current auto- mated weather observations in order to preserve continuity for climate trends and monitoring (Milewska et al., 2018; Mile- wska & Hogg, 2002; Milewska & Vincent, 2016; Vincent, Milewska, Wang, & Hartwell, 2018). Results regarding the changes in very warm and very cold temperatures (defined by the summer and winter 95th and 5th percentiles of tmax and tmin) have revealed three important pieces of information. First, very cold temperatures have increased more than very warm temperatures. This is evident in stronger warming trends at the lower end of the daily temp- erature distribution than at the higher end (the 5th percentile has increased more than the 95th percentile). Second, nighttime very warm and very cold temperatures have warmed more than daytime very warm and very cold temperatures, both in the cold and warm seasons. This result is consistent with greater warming observed at nighttime than during daytime (Vincent et al., 2012). Finally, the trends are more pronounced ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN iFirst art...
+
+### Query: "DTR decrease causes cloud cover soil moisture aerosols"
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.249)
+
+> Tropospheric aerosolsIt has recently been shown that increases in sulfateaerosols over and near industrial regions can signifi-cantly impact the earth’s surface heat balance(Charlson et al. 1992). Charlson et al. (1991) andCharlson etal. (1992) provide evidence to indicate thatthe anthropogenic increase of sulfate (and carbon-aceous) aerosol is of sufficient magnitude to competeregionally with present-day anthropogenic greenhouseforcings. This forcing is confined primarilyto the North-ern Hemisphere and is a combination of direct aerosolforcing (especially over the land) and indirect aerosolforcing leading to increases in cloud albedo (espe-cially over the marine environment). At present,Charlson et al. (1992) conclude that it is too uncertainto estimate the effects of sulfate aerosols on the.lifetime of clouds (smaller droplet sizes leading to adecrease in the fallout rate) which presumably couldlead to an increase in cloud cover. Charlson et al.(1991) provide the geographic pattern where directaerosol forcing should be greatest. It is difficult toidentify a direct relation between the pattern andmagnitude of the decrease in the DTR (Fig. 2) and theanthropogenic radiative forcing ...
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.236)
+
+> Thereare reasons why such aconclusion may be premature.First, the climate forcing due to tropospheric aerosolloading is influenced both by the emission rate and theresidence times of sulfate aerosol in the atmosphere.In the United States, at least, the effective heights, orstack heights, of the sulfur emissions have increasedas a consequence of the U.S. Clean Air Act. This mayhave had an effect on the lifetime of the SO, andsulfate aerosols5. ConclusionsStrong evidence exists for a widespread decreasein the DTR over the past several decades in manyCLOUD AMOUNT (TENTHS * 100)Fig. 9. Seasonal relationships between U.S. area-averaged cloud cover and the diurnal temperature range.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society1021 --- regions of the globe. There are many possible climaticfactors that affect the DTR, but indications are thatcloud cover, including low clouds, has increased inmany areas that have a decrease in the DTR. Theincreases in cloud cover could be indirectly related tothe observed global warming and increases of green-house gases, related to the indirect effects of in-creases in aerosols, simply a manifestation of naturalclimate variability, or a combination of al...
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> the snow cover season has shortened and more precipitation is now falling as rain39–41. The snow–albedo mechanism has a stronger influence on maximum than minimum temperatures because of the increase in absorbed solar radiation, as noted by Kothawale et al.42, who compared maximum and minimum tem- perature trends in the western Himalayas between 1971 and 2007. A regional climate model study also found EDW in the Alps and suggested that the increasing influence of the snow–albedo feedback mechanism, primarily during spring and summer, was responsible14. The specific temperature response (Tmin versus Tmax) will depend on soil moisture; if the increased surface shortwave absorption is balanced by increases in sensible heat fluxes (rather than latent heat fluxes), the response will be more prominent in Tmax (rather than Tmin). A more amplified response has been found in Tmin relative to Tmax in lower-elevation regions (1,500–2,500 m) of the Colorado Rocky Mountains during winter, using regional climate models43. This was caused, in part, by the increases in the absorbed solar radiation at the surface, primarily balanced by increases in the latent heat fluxes caused by the increases in ...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Climatic Change 4 Mechanisms responsible for possible temperature enhancements There are a number of mechanisms that can produce enhanced warming rates in certain elevation bands, and they often have a strong seasonal dependence. These mechanisms arise from either elevation based differential changes in climate drivers, such as snow/ice cover, clouds, water vapor, aerosols, and soil moisture, or differential sensitivities of surface warming to changes in these drivers at different elevations. Table 2 describes the specific responses and the physical mechanisms based on changes in these climate drivers, and we discuss some of these mechanisms in more detail. 4.1 Snow/ice albedo feedbacks This is certainly one of the strongest feedbacks in the climate system, and it has a rapid response time. In response to a positive temperature anomaly, more snow melts thus decreasing the local albedo, which in turn leads to increased absorption of solar radiation and enhancement of the initial positive temperature anomaly. Since this feedback modulates the surface absorption of incoming solar radiation, it primarily affects changes in the maximum temperature. Increases in the minimum temperature a...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Climate Driver Mechanisms Seasonal Relevance Temperature Response Decreases in Snow/ ➢ Increases surface Ice Albedo absorption of insolation Increases in Cloud Cover (Daytime) ➢ Decreases surface insolation Increases in Cloud Cover (Nighttime) Increases in Specific Humidity (q) Increases in Aerosols: non-absorbing e.g. sulfates ➢ Increases downwelling longwave radiation ➢ Increases downwelling longwave ➢ Downwelling longwave has high sensitivity to changes in q when q is less than 5 g/kg6 ➢ Decreases surface insolation ➢ Increases cloud albedo7 and cloud lifetime1 Primarily spring; but also important in winter at lower elevations, summer at higher elevations, in association with the 0°C isotherm5 All seasons but greater effects in summer All seasons but greater effects in winter Primarily winter; smaller effects are possible in autumn and spring ➢ Increases Tmax; suppressed effect if soil moisture also increases and causes daytime evaporative cooling ➢ Decreases Tmax; strongest effect when the cloud base is low2 ➢ Increases Tmin ➢ Increases Tmin Dependent on seasonal ➢ Decreases Tmax emissions Increases in Aerosols: ➢ Decreases surface absorbing e.g. black carbon, dust Increases in...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.233)
+
+> 4.4.2 Absorbing aerosols: dust Similar to black carbon, dust absorbs radiation within the atmosphere and reduces surface albedo when deposited on snow. Painter et al. (2007) analyzed several snow events in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and found that strong wind events in spring transport large --- Climatic Change amounts of dust from arid regions to the west. This causes a significant reduction of surface albedo when snow melts during spring and increases the absorption of solar radiation and the rate of snowmelt. They suggest that this process could have a much greater impact on regional climate change than the longer-term snow-albedo feedback mechanism would without the dust deposition. For this particular region, the surface is particularly vulnerable to movement by wind because human activities and development perturb the soil, which would otherwise be more crusted and resistant to wind transport. Similarly to black carbon, the impact of dust on elevation-dependent warming will depend on the elevation at which it is deposited. During the melt season, we would expect enhanced warming at elevations where the dust is deposited. 4.4.3 Non-absorbing aerosols Reflective aerosols (e.g...
+
+## tmax_tmin_globe
+
+### Query: "global maximum minimum temperature trends globe land area"
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.240)
+
+> AN AMS CONTINUING SERIESTHIS ARTICLE IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OFARTICLES REPORTING ON THE U. S. GLOBALCHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM AND INTERNA-TIONAL GLOBAL CHANGE ACTIVITIES WITHPARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE WORLD CLIMATERESEARCH PROGRAM, THE INTERNATIONALGEOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE PROGRAM,AND THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBALENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PROGRAM.THE ARTICLES ARE SELECTED IN COOPERATIONWITH THE BOARD ON GLOBAL CHANGE, BUT DONOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE OPINIONS OFTHE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES,NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL, OR THEAMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY.©1993 American Meteorological SocietyBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyA New Perspective onRecent Global Warming:Asymmetric Trendsof Daily Maximumand MinimumTemperatureThomas R. Karl,* Philip D. Jones,*Richard W. Knight,* George Kukla,®Neil Plummer,** Vyacheslav Razuvayev,**Kevin P. Gallo,* Janette Lindseay,??Robert J. Charlson,***and Thomas C. Peterson”AbstractMonthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for over50% (10%) of the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass,accounting for 37% of the global landmass, indicate that the rise ofthe minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three times that ofthe maximum temperatu...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=0.190)
+
+> GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL.32,L23822,doi:10.1029/2005GL024379, 2005 Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update | through | 2004 | | | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | -------------- | --- | ----------- | --- | ------------- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Russell | S. Vose, David | R. | Easterling, | and | Byron Gleason | | | | | | | | NationalClimaticDataCenter,Asheville,NorthCarolina,USA Received11August2005;revised11October2005;accepted26October2005;published14December2005. [1] New data acquisitions are used to examine recent Climatology Network [Peterson and Vose, 1997] monthly global trends in maximum temperature, minimum anddailydatabases(whichcontainmostofthedatausedby temperature, and the diurnal temperature range (DTR). On Easterling et al.), and two editions of World Weather average, the analysis covers the equivalent of 71% of the Records (1981–1990 and 1991–2000). These global data- total global land area, 17% more than in previous studies. sets were supplemented with acquisitions from Argentina, Consistent with the IPCC Third Assessment Report, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Greece, Iran, New Zealand, minimum temperature increase...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=0.229)
+
+> L23822 VOSE ETAL.:GLOBAL MAX/MIN/DTRTRENDS L23822 global DTR trends for 1950–2004 differ byonly 0.0013(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1). A total of 3588 maximum, 3565 minimum, and 3360 DTR stations each have at least 21 years of data duringthesatelliteperiod.Onaverage,theresultingdataset coversthe equivalent of 71%of the landsurface. Coverage exceeds 70% from 1979–2000, dropping to 62% in 2003 and 48% in 2004. 4. 1950–2004 Trends [9] Figure1depictstheglobalannualtimeseriesforeach variable for the period 1950–2004. In general, both max- imum and minimum temperature increase from about the mid-1970stopresent,withwarmingintheminimumduring the 1950s as well. The DTR generally decreases during the period, though much of the change occurs in two periods (the1950sandtheearly-1970stoearly1980s).From1950– 2004,themaximumtemperaturetrendis0.141(cid:1)Cdec(cid:1)1,the minimumtemperaturetrendis0.204(cid:1)Cdec(cid:1)1,andtheDTR trend is (cid:1)0.066(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1 (all trends computed via least- squares regression). The maximum and minimum trends exceed those in Easterling et al. [1997] by 0.050 and 0.018(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1, respectively, whereas the DTR trend is less Figure 1. Time series of annual...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> increases in minimum temperature as did windy nights for reflects the accelerated rate of warming in the maximum. the period 1950–2004. (Note that the DTR change does not appear to stem from differences in data coverage because the current dataset 3. Methods produces the same DTR trend as in Easterling et al. for the period 1950–1993.) In general, the trends for all variables [7] The climate anomaly method [Jones and Moberg, are larger in the Northern Hemisphere, with the greatest 2003] was used to develop global, hemispheric, and grid- warming in the boreal winter and spring (Table 1). Rela- box time series for the period 1950–2004. The first step tively speaking, trends exhibit little seasonality in the involved excluding stations that had less than 21 years of Southern Hemisphere. data during a base period of 1961–1990 and less than 4 years of data in each decade during that 30-year span. Base-period normals were then computed by month for the remaining 4280maximum, 4284 minimum, and4157DTR stations. Next, each monthly temperature at each station Table 1. Annual and Seasonal Trends ((cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1) From 1950– was converted to an anomaly from its base-period mean. 2004for M...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> | having less | than | 37 years | of | data (67% | completeness) | were | | | | | | | | | ----------- | ---- | -------- | --- | --------- | ------------- | ---- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | excluded from the analysis. Maximum temperature Table 2. Annual and Seasonal Trends ((cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1) From 1979– increased in most regions except northern Mexico and 2004for MaximumTemperature,Minimum Temperature,andthe northernArgentina,bothofwhichcooledduringthe55-year DTR for Global Land Areas and the Northern and Southern | period.Therewaslittlenetchangeinmaximumtemperature | | | | | | | Hemispheresa | | | | | | | | -------------------------------------------------- | --- | ------- | ------- | ------------ | --------- | ------- | ------------ | --- | ------- | --- | ------- | --- | --- | | in northeastern | | Canada, | the | southeastern | United | States, | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Season | | Maximum | | Minimum | | DTR | | and southern | | China. | Minimum | temperature | increased | | in | | | | | | | Globe virtually all areas except Mexico, northeastern Canada, Annual 0.287 0.295 (cid:1)0.001 and parts of the western Pacific Ocean. The DTR generally D-J-F 0.342 0...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=0.222)
+
+> L23822 VOSE ETAL.:GLOBAL MAX/MIN/DTRTRENDS L23822 thenorthPacificOcean.Minimumtemperatureincreasedin virtually all areas except southern Argentina, western Aus- tralia, and parts of the western Pacific Ocean. The DTR patternwasfarlessconsistent,withincreasesinsomeareas (e.g., western North America, northern Eurasia, the Indian subcontinent,Australia)anddecreasesinothers(e.g.,north- easternCanada,thesoutheasternUnitedStates,Africa,parts of central and eastern Asia). 6. Summary and Conclusions [14] Inthisstudyweusedasuiteofnewdataacquisitions to examine recent global trends in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and the DTR. Consistent with Easterling et al. [1997], minimum temperature increased at a faster rate than maximum temperature during the latter halfofthe20thcentury,resultinginasignificantdecreasein the DTR for this period. In contrast, maximum and mini- mumtemperatureincreaseswereroughlycomparableduring the satellite era, muting recent changes in the DTR. Maxi- mumandminimumtemperatureincreasedinalmostallparts of the globe during both periods, whereas a widespread decrease in the DTR was only evident from 1950–1980. [15] Acknowledgments. TheauthorsthankTomPeterson,Phi...
+
+### Query: "Tmax versus Tmin per decade rate hemispheric asymmetry"
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> There has also been a lack of consistency in the methods and data used to quantify the rate and patterns of warming. Differences in the time periods examined, the stations compared, the eleva- tional range selected, and the temporal resolution of the data (that is, daily versus monthly or annual temperatures) all vary (see Supplementary Information) and thus contribute to differences in trends. Many studies are relatively short (less than 50  years) and so strong interdecadal variability often contributes to observed trends12. Although some data homogenization has been achieved for station records in Europe and North America, there is a particu- lar problem with the mountain data in the tropics, which is both sparse and inhomogeneous. The most striking evidence for EDW is from Asia. Yan & Liu13 investigated warming trends (1961–2012) using 139 stations on and around the Tibetan Plateau, the most extensive high-elevation area in the world. Figure 1 shows mean warming rates (°C per decade) for contrasting periods for stations in 500-m-wide altitudinal *A full list of authors and affiliations can be found at the end of the paper. 424 NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 5 | MAY 2015 | www.natu...
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Figure 1 | Elevation-dependent warming over and around the Tibetan Plateau. a, Annual mean surface air temperature (TA) over 3 time periods. b, Annual mean minimum temperature (TN) from 1961–2012. c, Mean autumn (September-November, SON) surface temperature from 1961–2012. d, Mean winter (December–February, DJF) surface temperature from 1961–2012 . Bars represent elevation and trend magnitude is plotted on the y axis according to the 8 elevation ranks of 122 stations. The presentation format is similar to ref. 76 for ease of comparison. Error bars are based on 95% confidence intervals around the mean. The vertical scale for winter warming rate (d) and annual warming rate (a) have been adjusted to reflect the more rapid warming. the snow cover season has shortened and more precipitation is now falling as rain39–41. The snow–albedo mechanism has a stronger influence on maximum than minimum temperatures because of the increase in absorbed solar radiation, as noted by Kothawale et al.42, who compared maximum and minimum tem- perature trends in the western Himalayas between 1971 and 2007. A regional climate model study also found EDW in the Alps and suggested that the increasing influen...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.381)
+
+> Most studies have analyzed temperature trends in a specific mountain region and compared them to global or hemispheric trends (e.g., Beniston et al. 1997; Liu and Chen 2000; Ceppi et al. 2010). They often find that a mountain region is warming faster than the global or hemispheric average. However, these analyses cannot be used to answer the primary question posed in the title of this section because (a) the spatial scales being compared are vastly different with a much greater spatial variability expected across the global and hemispheric scales and, (b) the observation stations in mountain regions do not adequately sample the region, both geographically and topographically. Seidel and Free (2003) performed a station-based comparison of temperature trends (1960s–2000) at a high and a representative low elevation site for 26 station pairs across --- Climatic Change Fig. 2 Comparison of daily average temperature trends between the Northern Hemisphere (Land) and three high elevation regions (Colorado Rockies, Swiss Alps and Tibetan Plateau), and between the Southern Hemisphere (Land) and the Tropical Andes during the latter half of the 20th century. For the Southern Hemisphere, only ...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.372)
+
+> 3.2 The Swiss Alps Historically, the Swiss Alps may be the best observed among high mountain regions (e.g., Beniston et al. 1997). However, even here the climate at higher elevations (above 3000 m) is Fig. 3 Mean annual temperature trend magnitudes, between 1948– 2002, for different mean annual temperature bands from 1084 mountain stations described in Pepin and Lundquist 2008 (Fig. 2c in Pepin and Lundquist 2008). Trend magnitudes are generally higher for regions asso- ciated with -5 – 0°C and 0 – 5°C temperature bands --- Climatic Change not adequately observed. The 20th century warming in the Alps has been greater than the global and hemispheric (land and ocean combined) average (Beniston et al. 1994; Beniston et al. 1997; Ceppi et al. 2010). There is, however, a diurnal asymmetry in the warming because minimum temperatures have risen at a higher rate than maximum temperatures. In fact, the daytime maximum temperatures in the Swiss Alps experienced a cooling trend in the 1980s (Beniston et al. 1994). Beniston and Rebetez (1996) reported altitudinal gradients in nighttime warming anomalies during winter. Using observations from 88 stations in the Swiss Alps, they found greater in...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.377)
+
+> Ceppi et al. (2010) used a 2 km×2 km gridded mean temperature data set, interpolated from 91 homogenized stations from the Swiss Alps, to examine trends between 1959 and 2008. Their analysis found high warming rates during summer (0.46°C/decade) and winter (0.40°C/decade). Using a statistical model, they also concluded that circulation changes did not significantly affect these trends except during winter when they could explain 50% of the variance. Seasonally, their analysis did not reveal altitudinal gradients in warming rates, although they did find larger temperature anomalies below 500 m in all seasons except spring. In spring, they also found larger trends at mid to high elevations in association with the 0°C isotherm. 3.3 The Colorado Rocky Mountains Analysis of long-term trends in annual mean temperatures from the Colorado Rocky Mountains indicates large warming trends (0.5–1°C/decade) during the last three decades, but particularly since the mid-1990s (Diaz and Eischeid 2007; Ray et al. 2008; Saunders et al. 2008; Clow 2010; Rangwala and Miller 2010). The recent warming trend in the Colorado Rocky Mountain region appears to be among the largest in the contiguous United Sta...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.372)
+
+> There is significant seasonal variability in warming rates on the Plateau. Liu and Chen (2000) found that the warming rate in winter was about twice as large as the annual mean warming rate, a result which is consistent with other studies (Chen et al. 2006b; Liu et al. 2006; You et al. 2007; Rangwala et al. 2009). Autumn has the next highest warming rate, while summer and spring have only recently (since the 1990s) experienced significant increases in warming (Liu et al. 2006; Rangwala et al. 2009). Liu et al. (2006) also examined trends in minimum and maximum temperatures for the 42-year period from 1961 to 2003. They found that minimum temperatures were increasing faster than maximum temperatures in all months, but more so in winter and spring. The absolute increases in the minimum temperature were also highest in winter and spring. Temperature changes in the Tibetan Plateau are similar to those in the northern high latitudes where the warming rate during the last 50 years has also been greater in winter and spring, and smaller in summer (Serreze et al. 2000). Although there is evidence of elevation-dependent warming within the Tibetan Plateau, the sparsity of data at the higher ...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> & Gough, 2006; Schmidlin, Derthier, & Eggleston, 1987) and can play an important role in the production of maple syrup in Ontario and Quebec (Duchesne, Houle, Côté, & Logan, 2009; Pothier, 1995). In this study, the 95th and 5th percentiles of the daily temperature are often referred to as very warm and very cold days, the daily minimum and maximum temperatures are also referred to as the nighttime and daytime temperatures, respectively. respectively; Conditions Warm Cold Frost-free season Growing season Degree-days Freeze–thaw days Indices Summer days Hot days Hot nights 95th perc. tmax 95th perc. tmin Frost days Consecutive frost days Ice days 5th perc. tmax 5th perc. tmin Frost-free season (FFS) FFS starting date FFS ending date Growing season (GS) GS starting date GS ending date Growing degree-days (GDD) Cooling degree-days (CDD) Heating degree-days (HDD) Annual freeze–thaw days Spring freeze–thaw days Definitions Number of days with tmax > 25°C Number of days with tmax > 30°C Number of days with tmin > 22°C 95th percentile of tmax 95th percentile of tmin Number of days with tmin ≤ 0°C Maximum number of consecutive days with tmin ≤ 0°C Number of days with tmax ≤ 0°C 5th percentil...
+
+### Query: "narrowing of diurnal temperature range globally"
+
+**`easterling_etal1997`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> (1994)]showedalarge-scaleanticyclonicgyreinthe Maximum and Minimum Temperature generalvicinityofthegyreshowninFig.1C.Howev- er,Reid’sgyreandtheonedepictedinFig.1Chave Trends for the Globe substantialdifferencesintheirverticalstructureand horizontalsubstructure. 7. SouthwardflowofNorthAtlanticDeepWateronthe David R. Easterling,* Briony Horton, Philip D. Jones, easternsideoftheMid-AtlanticRidgeissupported Thomas C. Peterson, Thomas R. Karl, David E. Parker, byP.M.Saunders[J.Mar.Res.40,641(1982)],S. GanaandC.Provost[J.Mar.Syst.4,67(1993)],and M. James Salinger, Vyacheslav Razuvayev, Neil Plummer, J.PailletandH.Mercier(Deep-SeaRes.,PartI,in press). Paul Jamason, Christopher K. Folland 8. Topographicsilldepthsof(cid:59)1000mareabarrierfor flowofthisdensityintotheNordicSeas. 9. L.V.Worthington,JohnsHopkinsOceanogr.Stud. Analysisoftheglobalmeansurfaceairtemperaturehasshownthatitsincreaseisdue, 6,(1976);R.A.Clarke,H.W.Hill,R.F.Reininger, at least in part, to differential changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, B. A. Warren, J. Phys. Oceanogr. 10, 25 (1980); M.S.McCartney,Prog.Oceanogr.29,283(1992); resulting in a narrowing of the diurnal temperature range (DTR). The analysis, us...
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> AN AMS CONTINUING SERIESTHIS ARTICLE IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OFARTICLES REPORTING ON THE U. S. GLOBALCHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM AND INTERNA-TIONAL GLOBAL CHANGE ACTIVITIES WITHPARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE WORLD CLIMATERESEARCH PROGRAM, THE INTERNATIONALGEOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE PROGRAM,AND THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBALENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE PROGRAM.THE ARTICLES ARE SELECTED IN COOPERATIONWITH THE BOARD ON GLOBAL CHANGE, BUT DONOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE OPINIONS OFTHE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES,NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL, OR THEAMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY.©1993 American Meteorological SocietyBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyA New Perspective onRecent Global Warming:Asymmetric Trendsof Daily Maximumand MinimumTemperatureThomas R. Karl,* Philip D. Jones,*Richard W. Knight,* George Kukla,®Neil Plummer,** Vyacheslav Razuvayev,**Kevin P. Gallo,* Janette Lindseay,??Robert J. Charlson,***and Thomas C. Peterson”AbstractMonthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures for over50% (10%) of the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass,accounting for 37% of the global landmass, indicate that the rise ofthe minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three times that ofthe maximum temperatu...
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.259)
+
+> Relationship between various climate variables and thediurnal temperature range. (a) Simple and partial correlation coeffi-cients (removing the effects of ail other variables) between eachvariable (defined in Table 4) and the diurnal temperature range. (b)Partial correlation coefficients of each variable for cases partitionedby the total daily solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere 170Wr? (low); 271 Wm (high); remainder (moderate)Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societyvatory occurred with an increase in cloudiness. Ananalysis of changes in cloud cover over Japan, usingmany of the same stations selected for the analysis ofthe maximum and minimum temperatures, indicatescloud cover may have increased on an annual basis bynearly 1% since 1951, but there is no apparent re-sponse in the DTR. Changes in sunshine in Japan arenot altogether consistent with the increase in cloudcover, but a new sunshine instrument was introducedinto the network in 1986.4. Large-scale anthropogenic effectsa. Greenhouse gasesInterest in the potential change of the DTR withincreasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases hasprompted several modeling groups to publish informa-tion from their models regard...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=0.260)
+
+> Second, nighttime very warm and very cold temperatures have warmed more than daytime very warm and very cold temperatures, both in the cold and warm seasons. This result is consistent with greater warming observed at nighttime than during daytime (Vincent et al., 2012). Finally, the trends are more pronounced ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN iFirst article, 2018, 1–18 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579 Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society --- 16 / L.A. Vincent et al. during winter than during summer. Overall, these results are consistent with earlier publications (Bonsal et al., 2001; Wang et al., 2014) that have shown fewer days with low temp- eratures and more days with high temperatures, which together depict Canada’s climate as becoming not only warmer but also much less cold. These results are also in agreement with those of the Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which states that this kind of response should be expected in a warmer world (Collins et al., 2013; Kirtman et al., 2013). Explaining the causes of the diurnal asymmetry in Canada’s warming is beyond the scope of the paper; however, a recent study has suggested that the...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=0.235)
+
+> temperature, and the diurnal temperature range (DTR). On Easterling et al.), and two editions of World Weather average, the analysis covers the equivalent of 71% of the Records (1981–1990 and 1991–2000). These global data- total global land area, 17% more than in previous studies. sets were supplemented with acquisitions from Argentina, Consistent with the IPCC Third Assessment Report, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Greece, Iran, New Zealand, minimum temperature increased more rapidly than and South Africa. CLIMAT reports were used to update maximum temperature (0.204 vs. 0.141(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1) from about 20% of the stations after 1994. In addition, high- 1950–2004, resulting in a significant DTR decrease quality synoptic reports were included to fill recent gaps in ((cid:1)0.066(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1). In contrast, there were comparable about 10% of the stations (provided digital and manual increasesinminimumandmaximumtemperature(0.295vs. checks indicated that the synoptic data closely matched 0.287(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1) from 1979–2004, muting recent DTR historical monthly time series during periods of overlaps). trends ((cid:1)0.001(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1). Minimum and maximum [4]...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Introduction | | | | | | | [5] The | approach | of Menne | | and Williams | | [2005] was | | ----------- | ----------- | --- | ----------- | ----- | ------------- | ------------- | ---------- | ---------- | ---------------- | ------------ | ---------------- | ---------- | | | | | | | | then employed | | to produce | adjustments | | for undocumented | | | [2] Minimum | temperature | | increased | about | twice as fast | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | changes | in station | location, | instrumentation, | | and | observing | | as maximum | temperature | | over global | land | areas since | | | | | | | | 1950, resulting in a broad decline in the diurnal temper- practice. The first step entailed locating each station’s six ature range (DTR [Folland et al., 2001]). Changes in nearestneighborsandthencompositingtheirannualanoma- cloud cover, precipitation, soil moisture, and atmospheric lies into a reference series that represented the presumed 
+
+## canadian_bc_trends
+
+### Query: "Canada temperature trends 1948 to 2016 indices warming"
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.226)
+
+> Analysis of long-term trends in annual mean temperatures from the Colorado Rocky Mountains indicates large warming trends (0.5–1°C/decade) during the last three decades, but particularly since the mid-1990s (Diaz and Eischeid 2007; Ray et al. 2008; Saunders et al. 2008; Clow 2010; Rangwala and Miller 2010). The recent warming trend in the Colorado Rocky Mountain region appears to be among the largest in the contiguous United States (e.g., Saunders et al. 2008). This warming is found in all seasons although the largest increases in temperatures are observed mostly in winter and summer (Clow 2010). --- Climatic Change Williams et al. (1996) and Pepin and Losleben (2002) reported decreases in mean annual temperatures at high elevation stations (Niwot Ridge) between 1952 and the mid-1980s, and increases since then. This cooling trend has been attributed to short-term climate oscillations. Rangwala and Miller (2010) found decreases in the maximum temperature during the same time period in the San Juan Mountains in southwestern Colorado; however, they also found a slight increasing trend in the minimum temperature during that period. They attributed the decreases in the maximum temperatu...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Atmosphere-Ocean ISSN: 0705-5900 (Print) 1480-9214 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tato20 Changes in Canada's Climate: Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data L.A. Vincent, X. Zhang, É. Mekis, H. Wan & E.J. Bush To cite this article: L.A. Vincent, X. Zhang, É. Mekis, H. Wan & E.J. Bush (2018): Changes in Canada's Climate: Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data, Atmosphere-Ocean, DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579 © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group View supplementary material Published online: 26 Oct 2018. Submit your article to this journal View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=tato20 --- Changes in Canada’s Climate: Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data L.A. Vincent*, X. Zhang, É. Mekis, H. Wan, and E.J. Bush Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada [Original manus...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> whereas increases in total precipitation have been found, mainly because of an increase in the number of small to mod- erate precipitation events (Zhang, Hogg, & Mekis, 2001). These results for Canada are in general agreement with global-scale studies that have indicated widespread warming trends in temperature indices and changes in precipitation indices that are spatially more complex but show a tendency toward wetter conditions (Donat et al., 2013). The purpose of this study is to present an updated analysis of the trends in indices based on daily temperature and pre- cipitation for monitoring climate change impacts in Canada. It updates some of the previous work presented in Vincent and Mekis (2006), Bonsal et al. (2001), and Zhang et al. (2001) by using the latest version of the homogenized daily temperatures and adjusted daily precipitation, now available at more locations, and by examining the trends over a longer period of time, which includes at least an additional 10 years of recent data. The indices were selected for their relevance to social and economic impact assessment in Canada and for the insights they could provide regarding changes in extreme climate conditions. ...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=0.226)
+
+> The trend calculation followed the methodology presented in Zhang, Vincent, Hogg, and Niitsoo (2000). The estimated magnitude of the trend is based on the slope estimator of Sen (1968), and the statistical significance of the trend is based on the nonparametric Kendall’s τ-test (Kendall, 1955). Because serial correlation is occasionally present in the clima- tological time series, the method also uses an iterative pro- cedure to account for the lag-1 autocorrelation of the time series (Wang & Swail, 2001). Trends were computed for indi- vidual stations, and the statistical significance of the trends was assessed at the 5% level. Trends for threshold-based indices (e.g., number of hot days) were computed only for stations where the temperature threshold is exceeded regularly (for at least five years in the period of analysis). The tables and figures presented in this paper show the 1948–2016 trends for the temperature indices and the 1948–2012 trends for the pre- cipitation indices; the table and figures for the longer periods are provided in Tables S1 and S2 and Figs S1 to S4 (sup- plemental tables and figures can be accessed at http://dx.doi. org/10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579). The valu...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=0.226)
+
+> The summer 95th percentile of the daily maximum tempera- tures (tmax) and of the daily minimum temperatures (tmin) increasing trends over the 1948–2016 indicate significant period at many locations across the country (Fig. 5a, right panels); however, decreasing trends are also found in the summer 95th percentile of tmax, mainly in the Prairies. Aver- aged over the country, the summer 95th percentile of tmax has increased by 0.9°C for the 1948–2016 period, whereas the summer 95th percentile of tmin has increased by 1.3°C TABLE 3. Regional trends for temperature indices for the 1948–2016 period. Conditions Warm Cold Frost-free season Growing season Degree-days Freeze–thaw days Indices British Columbia Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Northern Canada Units Summer days Hot days Hot nights Summer 95th perc. tmax Summer 95th perc. tmin Winter 95th perc. tmax Winter 95th perc. tmin Frost days Consecutive frost days Ice days Winter 5th perc. tmax Winter 5th perc. tmin Summer 5th perc. tmax Summer 5th perc. tmin Frost-free season (FFS) FFS starting date FFS ending date Growing season (GS) GS starting date GS ending date Growing degree-days (GDD) Cooling degree-days (CDD) Heating degree–days ...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=0.233)
+
+> a Health Hot days have increased by 1–3 days at a handful of stations in southern BC, Quebec, and the Maritimes. Hot nights have increased by 1–3 nights at a few stations in southern Ontario and Quebec. The summer 95th percentile of tmax and tmin, averaged over the country, has increased by 0.9° and 1.3°C, the 1948–2016 period, and increasing respectively, trends were found across the nation. These very warm temp- erature conditions have the potential to have serious effects on human health and well-being in Canada (Berry, Clarke, for ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN iFirst article, 2018, 1–18 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579 Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society --- TABLE 4. Regional trends for precipitation indices for the 1948–2012 period. 14 / L.A. Vincent et al. Conditions Wet Very wet Highest Dry Indices British Columbia Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Northern Canada Units Days with rainfall Days with snowfall Days with precipitation Days with heavy rainfall Days with heavy snowfall Days with heavy precipitation Highest 1-day rainfall Highest 1-day snowfall Highest 1-day precipitation Maximum number of consecutive dry days (MCDD) 11.3 −6.3 4.6 0.7 −1.3 0.1 2.6 −12....
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> f Road Maintenance and Production of Maple Syrup The annual and spring number of freeze–thaw days decreased at many locations in BC, southern Ontario, southern Quebec, and in the Maritimes during the 1948–2016 period, whereas it has increased in the interior provinces. The warming in central Canada has resulted in more days with daytime temperatures above zero, while nighttime temperatures remain below zero. This change in weather conditions can have a negative impact on road maintenance (Hershfield, 1979; H o & Gough, 2006; Schmidlin et al., 1987). Fewer freeze–thaw days during the spring can negatively influence the production of maple syrup in the southern regions of Ontario and Quebec (Duchesne et al., 2009; Pothier, 1995). 5 Conclusions This study presents observed trends in several indices relevant to climate change impacts based on daily temperature and pre- cipitation data. The indices are computed using the latest version of the daily homogenized temperature and adjusted pre- cipitation, and the analyses presented here update some pre- vious work by examining trends over a longer period of time. The number of stations with temperature and precipitation observations decreased...
+
+### Query: "British Columbia annual temperature change observed warming"
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.246)
+
+> Ceppi et al. (2010) used a 2 km×2 km gridded mean temperature data set, interpolated from 91 homogenized stations from the Swiss Alps, to examine trends between 1959 and 2008. Their analysis found high warming rates during summer (0.46°C/decade) and winter (0.40°C/decade). Using a statistical model, they also concluded that circulation changes did not significantly affect these trends except during winter when they could explain 50% of the variance. Seasonally, their analysis did not reveal altitudinal gradients in warming rates, although they did find larger temperature anomalies below 500 m in all seasons except spring. In spring, they also found larger trends at mid to high elevations in association with the 0°C isotherm. 3.3 The Colorado Rocky Mountains Analysis of long-term trends in annual mean temperatures from the Colorado Rocky Mountains indicates large warming trends (0.5–1°C/decade) during the last three decades, but particularly since the mid-1990s (Diaz and Eischeid 2007; Ray et al. 2008; Saunders et al. 2008; Clow 2010; Rangwala and Miller 2010). The recent warming trend in the Colorado Rocky Mountain region appears to be among the largest in the contiguous United Sta...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.230)
+
+> There is significant seasonal variability in warming rates on the Plateau. Liu and Chen (2000) found that the warming rate in winter was about twice as large as the annual mean warming rate, a result which is consistent with other studies (Chen et al. 2006b; Liu et al. 2006; You et al. 2007; Rangwala et al. 2009). Autumn has the next highest warming rate, while summer and spring have only recently (since the 1990s) experienced significant increases in warming (Liu et al. 2006; Rangwala et al. 2009). Liu et al. (2006) also examined trends in minimum and maximum temperatures for the 42-year period from 1961 to 2003. They found that minimum temperatures were increasing faster than maximum temperatures in all months, but more so in winter and spring. The absolute increases in the minimum temperature were also highest in winter and spring. Temperature changes in the Tibetan Plateau are similar to those in the northern high latitudes where the warming rate during the last 50 years has also been greater in winter and spring, and smaller in summer (Serreze et al. 2000). Although there is evidence of elevation-dependent warming within the Tibetan Plateau, the sparsity of data at the higher ...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=0.239)
+
+> 1 Introduction Canada’s climate is changing. Surface air temperature has risen; spring precipitation has been shifting from snow to rain; and the duration of snow cover has been decreasing (Brown, Derksen, & Wang, 2010; Mekis & Vincent, 2011; Vincent et al., 2015). The directions of change are consistent with what would be expected from a warming climate, and many of the observed trends are projected to continue into the future under scenarios of further emissions of greenhouse gases (Bush, Loder, James, Mortsch, & Cohen, 2014; Collins et al., 2013; Kirtman et al., 2013; Seneviratne et al., 2012). Canada is a vast country, and changes in Canada’s climate are not spatially uniform. In addition, climate trends in Canada are not temporally consistent. Therefore, it is impor- tant to closely monitor changes in temperature and precipi- tation conditions using long-term climate data in order to determine whether the trends continue when reliable data for more locations and longer periods of time become available. Canada is becoming warmer. The annual mean temperature averaged over land has increased by 1.7°C from 1948 to 2012 (Vincent et al., 2015). Although warming occurs everywhere acr...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Fig. 2 The six regions (in red) used in this study: British Columbia region includes all stations in British Columbia (BC); Prairies region – all stations in Alberta (AB), Saskatchewan (SK) and Manitoba (MB); Ontario region – all stations in Ontario (ON); Quebec region – all stations in Quebec (QC); Atlantic region – all stations in New Bruns- wick (NB), Prince Edward Island (PE), Nova Scotia (NS), and New- foundland and Labrador (NL-L); and Northern region – all stations in Yukon (YK), Northwest Territories (NT), and Nunavut (NU). based on provincial boundaries (Fig. 2) to compare observed regional changes with those projected in the future. Because stations reporting climate observations are not evenly distrib- uted in every region, with more stations in most populated the following procedure was used to produce the areas, time series. The country was first regional and national divided into 5° by 5° grid boxes. The anomalies (differences between the annual or seasonal values and their average over the reference period 1961–1990) were obtained at indi- vidual stations and were averaged within each grid box. The regional and national time series were then obtained by calcu- lating ...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> 16 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 51 ClimateWNA—High-Resolution Spatial Climate Data for Western North America Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics, Department of Forest Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada TONGLI WANG Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada ANDREAS HAMANN Competitiveness and Innovation Branch, Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada DAVID L. SPITTLEHOUSE Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada TREVOR Q. MURDOCK (Manuscript received 25 February 2011, in final form 22 June 2011) ABSTRACT This study addresses the need to provide comprehensive historical climate data and climate change pro- jections at a scale suitable for, and readily accessible to, researchers and resource managers. This database for western North America (WNA) includes over 20 000 surfaces of monthly, seasonal, and annual climate variables from 1901 to 2009; several climate normal periods; and multimodel climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s,...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Goring, S., M. G. Pellatt, T. Lacourse, I. R. Walker, and R. W. Mathewes, 2009: A new methodology for reconstructing climate and vegetation from modern pollen assemblages: An example from British Columbia. J. Biogeogr., 36, 626– 638. Gray, L. K., T. Gylander, M. Mbogga, P. Chen, and A. Hamann, 2011: Assisted migration to address climate change: Recom- mendations for aspen reforestation in western Canada. Ecol. Appl., 21, 1591–1603. Hamann, A., and T. L. Wang, 2005: Models of climatic normals for genecology and climate change studies in British Columbia. Agric. For. Meteor., 128, 211–221. ——, and ——, 2006: Potential effects of climate change on eco- system and tree species distribution in British Columbia. Ecology, 87, 2773–2786. ——, T. Gylander, and P. Chen, 2011: Developing seed zones and transfer guidelines with multivariate regression trees. Tree Genet. Genomes, 7, 399–408. Hargreaves, G. A., and Z. A. Samni, 1982: Estimation of potential evapotranspiration. J. Irrig. Drain. Div., Proc. Amer. Soc. Civ. Eng., 108, 223–230. --- JANUARY 2012 W A N G E T A L . 29 Hijmans, R. J., S. E. Cameron, J. L. Parra, P. G. Jones, and A. Jarvis, 2005: Very high resolution interpolated climate s...
+
+### Query: "homogenized Canadian climate data adjustment methodology"
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=0.281)
+
+> NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 5 | MAY 2015 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 427 © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved REVIEW ARTICLE --- NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2563 other meteorological parameters (see Supplementary Information for more detail). Because high-elevation trends can be influenced by decadal-scale changes in circulation, long-term data sets (>50  years) may be needed to extract the EDW signal. Thus, in addition to new observa- tions, we need to locate and evaluate observational data that already exist. This may also include high-resolution palaeoclimate data sets. Much high-elevation climate data are largely inaccessible due to poorly managed data archives in different countries, and there have been only limited efforts to create homogenous high-elevation global data sets. Powerful methods for homogenizing climate data are available (see, for example, http://www.homogenisation.org) but better metadata (for example, station characteristics such as topog- raphy) and information on station location and instrument changes need to be incorporated more systematically into high-elevation data sets. Finally we need agreed metrics to meas...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> temperatures and adjusted daily precipitation, now available at more locations, and by examining the trends over a longer period of time, which includes at least an additional 10 years of recent data. The indices were selected for their relevance to social and economic impact assessment in Canada and for the insights they could provide regarding changes in extreme climate conditions. Historical changes are also useful benchmarks for evaluating climate models. individual In this paper, the trends are first examined at ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN iFirst article, 2018, 1–18 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579 La Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie --- Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data / 3 stations and then they are analyzed for six sub-regions as well as the entire country. Section 2 describes the data and meth- odologies. The trends are presented in Section 3. Section 4 provides a discussion of the relevance of these changes to the health of Canadians and to some of the important sectors of the Canadian economy (e.g., tourism, agriculture, energy, and shipping). A summary and conclusions follow in Section 5. 2 Data and methodologies a...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Mekis, É., & Vincent, L. A. (2011). An overview of the second generation adjusted daily precipitation dataset in Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean, 49(2), 163–177. doi:10.1080/07055900.2011.583910 Mekis, É., Vincent, L. A., Shephard, M. W., & Zhang, X. (2015). Observed trends in severe weather conditions based on humidex, wind chill, and heavy rainfall events in Canada for 1953–2012. Atmosphere-Ocean, 53 (4), 383–397. doi:10.1080/07055900.2015.1086970 trend analysis for Milewska, E., & Hogg, W. D. (2002). Continuity of climatological observations with automation – temperature and precipitation amounts from AWOS (Automated Weather Observing System). Atmosphere-Ocean, 40(3), 333–359. Milewska, E. J., & Vincent, L. A. (2016). Preserving continuity of long-term daily maximum and minimum temperature observations with automation of reference climate stations using overlapping data and meteorological con- ditions. Atmosphere-Ocean, 54(1), 32–47. doi:10.1080/07055900.2015. 1135784 Milewska, E.J., Vincent, L.A., Hartwell, M., Charlesworth, K., & Mekis, É. (2018). Adjusting precipitation amounts from Geonor and Pluvio automated weighing gauges to preserve continuity of observations in Canada. Canadia...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Shephard, M. W., Mekis, E., Morris, R. J., Feng, Y., Zhang, X., Kilcup, K., & Fleetwood, R. (2014). Trends in Canadian short-duration extreme rainfall: Including an intensity-duration-frequency perspective. Atmosphere- Ocean, 52(5), 398–417. doi:10.1080/07055900.2014.969677 Vincent, L. A., & Mekis, É. (2006). Changes in daily and extreme temperature the twentieth century. for Canada over and precipitation indices Atmosphere-Ocean, 44(2), 177–193. Vincent, L. A., Milewska, E. J., Wang, X. L., & Hartwell, M. M. (2018). Uncertainty in homogenized daily temperatures and derived indices of extremes illustrated using parallel observations in Canada. International Journal of Climatology, 38(2), 692–707. doi:10.1002/joc.5203 Vincent, L. A., Wang, X. L., Milewska, E. J., Wan, H., Yang, F., & Swail, V. (2012). A second generation of homogenized Canadian monthly surface air temperature for climate trend analysis. J. Geophys. Res, 117, D18110. doi:10.1029/2012JD017859 Vincent, L. A., Zhang, X., Bonsal, B. R., & Hogg, W. D. (2002). Homogenization of daily temperatures over Canada. Journal of Climate, 15, 1322–1334. Vincent, L. A., Zhang, X., Brown, R. D., Feng, Y., Mekis, É., Milewska, E. J., …...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> impacted the DTR in some areas [e.g., Balling et al., pointsusingtwo-phaseregressionandtheStandardNormal 1998; Bonan, 2001; Small et al., 2001]. Unfortunately, Homogeneity Test. When both tests found a change point withintwoyearsofoneanother,anadjustmentwasapplied | data constraints | have | historically | | limited | global-scale | | | | | | | | | ---------------- | ------------- | ------------ | ----- | ------- | -------------- | ---------------- | --- | ------- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | to the candidate | | series. | | | | | | analyses | of DTR trends | and | their | causes; | in particular, | | | | | | | | the most recent global assessment [Easterling et al., 1997] [6] Unlike Easterling et al. [1997], the final adjusted only covered about half of the land surface and ended in dataset was not stratified into urban and rural subnetworks 1993. Consequently, in this study we use new data acquis- becauseurbanwarmingdoesnotappeartosignificantlybias | | | | | | | multidecadal | trends | over | largeareas. | For | example, | Jones et | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ------------ | ------ | ---- | ----------- | --- | -------- | -------- | itionstoexpandspatialcovera...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=0.260)
+
+> This study addresses the need to provide comprehensive historical climate data and climate change pro- jections at a scale suitable for, and readily accessible to, researchers and resource managers. This database for western North America (WNA) includes over 20 000 surfaces of monthly, seasonal, and annual climate variables from 1901 to 2009; several climate normal periods; and multimodel climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. A software package, ClimateWNA, allows users to access the database and query point locations, obtain time series, or generate custom climate surfaces at any resolution. The software uses partial derivative functions of temperature change along elevation gradients to improve medium-resolution baseline climate estimates and calculates biologically relevant climate variables such as growing degree-days, number of frost-free days, extreme temperatures, and dryness indices. Historical and projected future climates are obtained by using monthly temperature and precipitation anomalies to adjust the interpolated baseline data for the location of interest. All algorithms used in the software package are described and evaluated against observations from ...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=0.271)
+
+> surfaces are generated at relatively coarse resolution and are then overlaid onto a high-resolution climate base- line data corresponding to the common reference period. This approach is not without issues, but has been suc- cessfully applied particularly for regions or historical time periods with sparse weather station coverage (Mitchell and Jones 2005). For climate change projections, the delta approach is considered a simple statistical down- scaling method and it appears to perform as well as so- phisticated downscaling methods in producing mean characteristics (Fowler et al. 2007), which are what we deal with in this study. We use the monthly climate data to estimate biologically relevant climate variables that are usually calculated from daily data. Finally, we use partial derivative functions of temperature change along elevation gradients to provide high-resolution climate data for mountainous terrain. This work builds on previous research and climate databases that we have developed for western Canada (Hamann and Wang 2005; Wang et al. 2006a; Mbogga et al. 2009). These databases and associated software packages have been widely used to address problems in natural resource...
+
+## bc_downscaling
+
+### Query: "ClimateWNA western North America historical temperature downscaling"
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.264)
+
+> _MAX ANNUALTemperature Trend*C/100yr \30 @ -3 .2 0 @ -21 0 e -1 eTemperature Trend"C/100yr30 @-320 @ -21 o e -1RANGE ANNUALTemperature Trend"C/100yr3.0 @ -32 0 @ -21 oO e -|aeeaeFia. 2. Spatial patterns of annual trends of mean maximum, minimum, and diurnal temperaturerange (mostly 1951-90) in degrees Celsius per one hundred years. Diameter of circles isproportional to the trend and solid (open) circles represent negative (positive) trends. Circlespertain to regions within each country except for island stations, e.g., in the South Pacific andHawaii.stations are used) stations is available back to the decreaseis evidentba1930s. Time series from these countries reflect signifi- mean temperature atduring the dry 1930s and early1950s inthe United States. Thegeneral decrease of the DTRdid not begin in the UnitedStates until the late 1950s, andthe DTR decreased rather dra-matically in the mid- to late1970s over the former USSRas part of substantial increasesin the minimum temperature.The decrease of the DTR inthese two countries is a phe-nomenon of recent decades.Data are also available fartherback in time for smaller areasand countries, notably Japan,eastern Australia, and SouthAfrica....
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=0.265)
+
+> L23822 VOSE ETAL.:GLOBAL MAX/MIN/DTRTRENDS L23822 thenorthPacificOcean.Minimumtemperatureincreasedin virtually all areas except southern Argentina, western Aus- tralia, and parts of the western Pacific Ocean. The DTR patternwasfarlessconsistent,withincreasesinsomeareas (e.g., western North America, northern Eurasia, the Indian subcontinent,Australia)anddecreasesinothers(e.g.,north- easternCanada,thesoutheasternUnitedStates,Africa,parts of central and eastern Asia). 6. Summary and Conclusions [14] Inthisstudyweusedasuiteofnewdataacquisitions to examine recent global trends in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and the DTR. Consistent with Easterling et al. [1997], minimum temperature increased at a faster rate than maximum temperature during the latter halfofthe20thcentury,resultinginasignificantdecreasein the DTR for this period. In contrast, maximum and mini- mumtemperatureincreaseswereroughlycomparableduring the satellite era, muting recent changes in the DTR. Maxi- mumandminimumtemperatureincreasedinalmostallparts of the globe during both periods, whereas a widespread decrease in the DTR was only evident from 1950–1980. [15] Acknowledgments. TheauthorsthankTomPeterson,Phi...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> 16 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 51 ClimateWNA—High-Resolution Spatial Climate Data for Western North America Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics, Department of Forest Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada TONGLI WANG Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada ANDREAS HAMANN Competitiveness and Innovation Branch, Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada DAVID L. SPITTLEHOUSE Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada TREVOR Q. MURDOCK (Manuscript received 25 February 2011, in final form 22 June 2011) ABSTRACT This study addresses the need to provide comprehensive historical climate data and climate change pro- jections at a scale suitable for, and readily accessible to, researchers and resource managers. This database for western North America (WNA) includes over 20 000 surfaces of monthly, seasonal, and annual climate variables from 1901 to 2009; several climate normal periods; and multimodel climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s,...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> of extreme climate events that structures have to with- stand or that may endanger a crop (Schlenker et al. 2007). High spatial resolution climate data are often required for ecological research in montane ecosystems where climate conditions and species compositions can change substantially at scales of a few hundreds of meters in el- evation (Hamann and Wang 2006; DeLong et al. 2010). Climate change projections from general circulation models are typically provided at a coarse resolution with spatial resolutions of 200 km or more and monthly time steps. To provide climate data with higher spatial and temporal resolutions for research and management ap- plications, sophisticated downscaling methods have been developed that include weather generators, statistical approaches, or dynamic downscaling (Fowler et al. 2007; Bu¨ rger et al. 2009; Maurer et al. 2009). However, down- scaling to high spatial and temporal resolution produces databases that are often inaccessible to nonspecialists because of the file size associated with the thousands of surfaces for multiple climate variables, historical periods of interest, and multimodel projections for the future. It is important to distingu...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=0.283)
+
+> W A N G E T A L . 21 FIG. 2. Effects of the downscaling processes in ClimateWNA shown in a mountainous area of south Washington State (centered on 458359N, 1218319W). (a) DEM at 90 m; (b) MAT generated by PRISM at 4 km; (c) interpolated MAT using bilinear interpolation; (d) elevation-adjusted MAT using nearest data values from PRISM data and elevation adjustment function developed in this study; (e) ClimateWNA downscaled MAT using a combination of bilinear interpolation and elevation adjustment; (f) ClimateWNA downscaled MAT overlaid to a satellite image to show the trend of MAT along topography in the upper-left part of this area. NFFD and minimum monthly temperatures in April, May, and June, and for eFFP with a polynomial function based on NFFD and minimum monthly temperatures in June, July, September, and October. FFP is calculated by subtracting bFFP from eFFP. For estimation of evaporation, the Hargreaves equation (Hargreaves and Samni 1982; Shuttleworth 1993) had the best agreement of the five temperature-based methods tested (data not shown), which is in agreement with Shuttleworth’s (1993) assessment. A latitude correction of the reference evaporation Eref 5 EHar[(1.18 – 0.0...
+
+### Query: "PRISM gridded climate normals temperature lapse rate elevation"
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=0.244)
+
+> Winter23 Winter47 No significant gradient No significant gradient but largest warming rates at an intermediate elevation – – Annual68 Annual78 Annual77,84 Winter30g Autumn30g Annual30,85,71d,82 All seasons44,85 Annual9,43c Spring30g Summer84 – – Tavg Annual79 Winter30,69,14,79 Spring30,14,79 Summer86 Annual73f Spring73f Autumn73f Annual30 Spring30 Superscript letters accompanying references indiciate: aNo significant gradient but greater warming at higher elevations relative to regions between 0–500 m; bradiosonde data, clearest signal in the tropics; c65% of the regional groups examined showed fastest trends at highest elevations and 20% showed fastest trends at intermediate elevations; dhigh-elevation trends based on borehole data; esatellite-derived temperature estimations; freanalyses; ggridded data. bands starting at 1,000  m. Systematic increases in warming rate with elevation are uncovered for annual mean temperature, and warming rates have increased in recent decades (Fig.  1a). Mean minimum temperatures also show EDW on an annual basis (Fig. 1b), as do mean temperatures in autumn (Fig. 1c) and winter (Fig. 1d). There was no strong elevational effect in other seasons, or fo...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> We primarily rely on monthly climate data for the 1961–90 normal period generated by PRISM (Daly et al. 2002) for our reference climate grid (2.5 arc min). The PRISM data were developed using an approach that incorporates weather station data, a digital elevation model, and expert knowledge of climate patterns such as rain shadows, coastal effects, orographic lift, and tem- perature inversions over topographically delineated ‘‘facets’’ (Daly et al. 2002). PRISM data have clear ad- vantages over other products in reflecting these effects. However, we found that the pattern of temperature in- version in some areas in the northern part of the prairies in winter was not well predicted by PRISM. Also, PRISM --- 18 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 51 data are not available for the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Therefore, the Australian National University Spline (ANUSPLIN; Hutchinson 1989) was used to inter- polate weather station records to create 2.5 arc min gridded 1961–90 monthly temperature and precipitation nor- mals for these regions. To have seamless integration with the PRISM data, PRISM data at the border regions were ...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> ClimateWNA uses the same algorithms as our pre- vious software packages (Wang et al. 2006a; Mbogga et al. 2009) to integrate both historical and future cli- mate data with the delta method. Anomaly grids are interpolated using bilinear interpolation in run time to avoid step artifacts at grid boundaries, and the differ- ence is added to the baseline climate normal data to arrive at the final climate surface. c. Downscaling of baseline data ClimateWNA uses a combination of bilinear inter- polation and elevation adjustment to downscale the baseline climate data to specific points of interest with known elevations (Wang et al. 2006a). For each point of interest, the program first extracts the monthly tem- perature, precipitation, and elevation for the four closest grid cells and then calculates bilinear-interpolated cli- mate and elevation values for that point. Subsequently, a lapse-rate-based elevation adjustment is carried out based on the elevation difference between the location of interest [e.g., a recorded elevation or a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) value], and the elevation value interpolated from the four neighboring tiles of the baseline dataset. The appropriat...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=0.219)
+
+> 24 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 51 (Sinha 1995). The improvement in monthly minimum temperatures is relatively small in terms of variance explained and mean absolute error compared to maxi- mum temperatures (Fig. 3). Improvements were also generally more pronounced over the summer months. This implies weaker environmental lapse rates for mini- mum temperatures and winter temperatures. Presumably, winter temperature inversions and cold air drainage may help moderate the minimum temperatures at higher el- evations relative to those at lower elevations, resulting in weaker environmental lapse rates for those variables. We derive regional lapse rates for individual tem- perature variables directly from surfaces of interpolated temperature data by calculating partial derivatives of climate values as they change along elevation gradients. No weather station records are involved in the deriva- tion of local lapse rates, and therefore our evaluation against station records represents an independent vali- dation of improvements in statistical accuracy. We rec- ommend that lapse-rate-based elevation adjustments should always be used...
+
+### Query: "high resolution spatial climate baseline anomaly"
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.306)
+
+> High-resolution climate models are likely to provide one of the best ways to investigate cloud feedbacks in high-elevation regions. Liu et al. (2009) examined 116 weather stations and high-resolution climate model output under a greenhouse-warming scenario and found that the increases in monthly minimum temperatures were greater at higher elevations in the Tibetan Plateau. They suggested that this elevation dependency was, in part, caused by cloud-radiation effects. Another modeling study by Vuille et al. (2003) found that changes in cloud cover were responsible for some of the temperature changes in the Tropical Andes. 4.3 Water vapor modulation of longwave heating The globally positive temperature perturbation produced by increasing levels of anthropo- genic greenhouse gases (e.g., carbon dioxide) leads to more water vapor in the atmosphere that in turn absorbs and emits longwave radiation, thus enhancing the surface warming. Increases in surface specific humidity have been suggested to be partly responsible for a rapid increase in surface warming across central Europe (Philipona et al. 2005) and the Tibetan Plateau (Rangwala et al. 2009, 2010) in the late 20th century. These stu...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=0.305)
+
+> of frost-free days, extreme temperatures, and dryness indices. Historical and projected future climates are obtained by using monthly temperature and precipitation anomalies to adjust the interpolated baseline data for the location of interest. All algorithms used in the software package are described and evaluated against observations from weather stations across WNA. The downscaling algorithms substantially improve the accuracy of temperature variables over the medium-resolution baseline climate surfaces. Climate variables that are usually calculated from daily data are estimated from monthly climate variables with high statistical accuracy. 1. Introduction In the context of global climate change, spatial data- bases of historical climate and predictions of climate change have become increasingly important for resource managers, scientists, and policy makers (Fowler et al. 2007). To support a broader community of nonspecialist users, several efforts have been made to provide gridded Corresponding author address: Tongli Wang, Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics, Department of Forest Sciences, The Uni- versity of British Columbia, 3041-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4, Cana...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=0.287)
+
+> An important problem that all these efforts face is that the underlying climate databases come in various spatial and temporal resolutions that need to be converted to DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-11-043.1 (cid:2) 2012 American Meteorological Society --- JANUARY 2012 W A N G E T A L . 17 scales meaningful for the end user. High temporal reso- lution can be important for agricultural and engineering applications that often require daily data to calculate important variables—such as growing degree-days or the length of the frost-free period—or to assess the probability of extreme climate events that structures have to with- stand or that may endanger a crop (Schlenker et al. 2007). High spatial resolution climate data are often required for ecological research in montane ecosystems where climate conditions and species compositions can change substantially at scales of a few hundreds of meters in el- evation (Hamann and Wang 2006; DeLong et al. 2010). Climate change projections from general circulation models are typically provided at a coarse resolution with spatial resolutions of 200 km or more and monthly time steps. To provide climate data with higher spatial and temporal resolutions for r...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> ClimateWNA uses the same algorithms as our pre- vious software packages (Wang et al. 2006a; Mbogga et al. 2009) to integrate both historical and future cli- mate data with the delta method. Anomaly grids are interpolated using bilinear interpolation in run time to avoid step artifacts at grid boundaries, and the differ- ence is added to the baseline climate normal data to arrive at the final climate surface. c. Downscaling of baseline data ClimateWNA uses a combination of bilinear inter- polation and elevation adjustment to downscale the baseline climate data to specific points of interest with known elevations (Wang et al. 2006a). For each point of interest, the program first extracts the monthly tem- perature, precipitation, and elevation for the four closest grid cells and then calculates bilinear-interpolated cli- mate and elevation values for that point. Subsequently, a lapse-rate-based elevation adjustment is carried out based on the elevation difference between the location of interest [e.g., a recorded elevation or a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) value], and the elevation value interpolated from the four neighboring tiles of the baseline dataset. The appropriat...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> 22 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 51 FIG. 3. Reduction in (top) variance unexplained and (bottom) mean absolute errors for (left to right) monthly maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin), and average (Tave) air temperatures, and monthly total precipitation (Prec). The gray plus black bars represent the accuracy of the 2.5 arc min–resolution baseline data (PRISM). The black bars represent estimates from ClimateWNA, and gray indicates the improvement. Eref to be overestimated in winter and spring and un- derestimated in late summer and autumn because the annual temperature does not fully follow annual trends in solar radiation and humidity (cf. Donohue et al. 2010). For the 1961–90 normals, the standard errors for EHar and CMD were 31 and 26 mm, respectively, when compared with calculations from the Penman–Monteith equation. Under the large climate warming scenario the annual Eref had a standard error of 50 mm with a 12-mm underestimate bias, while values for the CMD were 46 and 23 mm, respectively. c. Historical and future periods The delta approach we use to add low- or medium- resolution anomalies to high-resolution climate baseline...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> b. The delta approach for historical data With the delta approach, we overlay low- to medium- resolution anomalies onto high-resolution 1961–90 base- line climate data to generate estimates for individual years or periods. This approach allows us to take the full advantage of the interpolated and lapse-rate-adjusted baseline data to produce thousands of high-resolution derivative surfaces for historical time periods (as well as for future periods) without massively increasing the size of the database. Because their original baseline data (at a resolution of 0.58) are replaced with the spatially more accurate interpolated and lapse-rate-adjusted baseline data, the amount of error associated with their baseline data is expected to be reduced, which is relatively large and more difficult to model than with anomalies (Mbogga et al. 2009; Mitchell and Jones 2005). Although we did not carry out an explicit comparison in this paper, Mbogga et al. (2009) have previously shown that this improves the statistical accuracy of historical data. As- sessment of annual variables for individual years in this paper as well as the previous study (Mbogga et al. 2009) showed that prediction accuracy is ...
+
+## elevation_dependent_warming
+
+### Query: "elevation dependent warming mountain regions amplification"
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=0.203)
+
+> REVIEW ARTICLE PUBLISHED ONLINE: 23 APRIL 2015 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2563 Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group* There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations. Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) can accelerate the rate of change in mountain ecosystems, cryospheric systems, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. Here we review important mechanisms that contribute towards EDW: snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks; water vapour changes and latent heat release; surface water vapour and radiative flux changes; surface heat loss and temperature change; and aerosols. All lead to enhanced warming with elevation (or at a critical elevation), and it is believed that combinations of these mechanisms may account for contrasting regional patterns of EDW. We discuss future needs to increase knowledge of mountain temperature trends and their controlling mechanisms through improved observations, satellite-based remote sensing and model simulations. It is well known that the ...
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=0.224)
+
+> Evidence for elevation-dependent warming In theory, it should be simple to document the rate and geographical pattern of warming with elevation over recent decades. However, many factors make it extremely difficult to determine the rate of warming in mountainous regions. First and foremost, long-term meteorological stations (with more than 20  years of records) are extremely sparse at high elevations. For example, in the GHCNv3 database of homogenized stations, out of 7,297 stations, only 191 (3%) are above 2,000 m and 54 (0.7%) above 3,000 m, and long-term data are simply non-existent above 5,000 m in any mountain range1. Unlike in the Arctic, which is relatively homogenous, mountain tem- peratures suffer from extreme local variability due to factors such as topography, slope, aspect and exposure. Of the high-elevation sta- tions in the GHCNv3 database, very few are on isolated peaks or plateau, and most observations within high-mountain regions are taken from valleys with distinct microclimates prone to cold air drainage2–4, which makes it hard to separate noise from trend. Evidence for EDW could also come from satellite data, atmos- pheric reanalysis or model studies, but these ...
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Albedo. Snow–albedo feedback is an important positive feedback in Arctic amplification26,27, but it is also relevant in snow-domi- nated high-elevation regions14,28,29 where the seasonal timing of snow cover varies with elevation, and maximum warming rates commonly occur near the annual 0  °C isotherm9,30. In the Swiss Alps, the daily mean 2-m temperature of a spring day without snow cover is 0.4  °C higher than one with snow cover 31 (mean value for 1961–2012). The current snowline, which varies in elevation across different mountain ranges, is expected to retreat to higher elevations as the overall climate system warms. The definition of the snowline is not as simple as might be expected: different stud- ies in the Alps have yielded contrasting heights32–34. The elevation dependency of snow cover duration (and also of the snow/rain ratio) is nonlinear, so the rate of snowline retreat may increase as temperatures rise35. This will result in significant increases in the surface absorption of incoming solar radiation around the retreating snowline (approximated by the 0 °C isotherm), initially causing enhanced warming at that elevation36. As the snowline migrates upslope, this effec...
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> (Oxford Univ. Press, 2000). 3. Barry, R. G. Mountain Weather and Climate 3rd edn (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2008). 4. Pepin, N. C. Daly, C. & Lundquist, J. The influence of surface versus free- air decoupling on temperature trend patterns in the western United States. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D10109 (2011). 5. Qin, J., Yang, K., Liang, S. & Guo, X. The altitudinal dependence of recent rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau. Climatic Change 97, 321–327 (2009). 6. Barry, R. G. Mountain climatology and past and potential future climatic changes in mountain regions: a review. Mountain Res. Devel. 12, 71–86 (1992). 7. Barry, R. G. in The State of the World’s Mountains: A Global Report (ed. Stone, P. B.) 359–380 (Zed Books, 1992). 8. Diaz, H. F. & Bradley, R. S. Temperature variations during the last century at high elevation sites. Climatic Change 36, 253–279 (1997). 9. Pepin, N. & Lundquist, J. Temperature trends at high elevations: patterns across the globe. Geophys. Res. Let. 35, L14701 (2008). 10. Ohmura, A. Enhanced temperature variability in high-altitude climate change. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 110, 499–508 (2012). 11. Wang, Q., Fan, X. & Wang, M. Recent warming amplification over high e...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.216)
+
+> Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0419-3 Climate change in mountains: a review of elevation-dependent warming and its possible causes Imtiaz Rangwala & James R. Miller Received: 25 April 2011 / Accepted: 27 January 2012 # Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 Abstract Available observations suggest that some mountain regions are experiencing sea- sonal warming rates that are greater than the global land average. There is also evidence from observational and modeling studies for an elevation-dependent climate response within some mountain regions. Our understanding of climate change in mountains, however, remains challenging owing to inadequacies in observations and models. In fact, it is still uncertain whether mountainous regions generally are warming at a different rate than the rest of the global land surface, or whether elevation-based sensitivities in warming rates are prevalent within mountains. We review studies of four high mountain regions – the Swiss Alps, the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas, and the Tropical Andes – to examine questions related to the sensitivity of climate change to surface elevation. We explore processes that could lead...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> In fact, there are even studies within the same mountain region which obtain different results regarding elevation-dependent warming rates. For example, Liu and Chen (2000), Liu et al. (2009), Qin et al. (2009) and Rangwala et al. (2009) found increased warming rates at higher altitudes in the Tibetan Plateau in the latter half of the 20th century, while You et al. (2010) found no elevation-based trends and the study by Lu et al. (2010) suggests greater warming trends at lower elevations. Because some studies have found increases in warming rates with elevation in mountain regions and others have found decreases, references to elevation- dependent responses in this review refer to either case. There are two fundamental questions regarding climate change in high elevation regions. One is whether the rate of warming within mountain regions is changing at a different rate than rest of the global land surface, and the second is whether the rates of change differ depending on elevation within a specific mountain region. In this --- Climatic Change paper, we review studies that have examined these questions using both observations and climate model output from selected high mountain regi...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.226)
+
+> Section 3 exam- ines the question of elevation-dependent warming within a mountain region, and summarizes findings of observed and modeled climate change in mountains with a focus on four mountain regions: The Swiss Alps, The Colorado Rocky Mountains, The Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas and The Tropical Andes (see Fig. 1). In section 4, we discuss potential mechanisms that might enhance temperature change in mountains. We discuss some key insights that emerge from these studies in the final section. Table 1 List of studies that were reviewed to assess elevation sensitive warming within mountain regions. Also included are the information on time period, elevation range and number of stations considered in these studies Study Region Time Period Elevation Range (m) No. of Stations Diaz and Bradley 1997 Global Pepin and Lundquist 2008 Global Pepin and Seidel 2005 Seidel and Free 2003 Global Global 20th Century 1055–3310 500–4700 1948–2002 500–4700 1948–2002 2–3649 1960s–2000 Beniston and Rebetez 1996 Swiss Alps Swiss Alps Beniston et al. 1994 Ceppi et al. 2010 Jungo and Beniston 2001 Clow 2010 Diaz and Eischeid 2007 Rangwala and Miller 2010 Pepin and Losleben 2002 Chen et al. 2006b Liu and C...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> In this review, we have explored available literature to address two important questions related to climate change in the mountain regions: (1) are mountain regions warming faster than low lying regions, and (2) is there an elevation-dependent climate response within mountain regions? From the available studies, it remains difficult to sufficiently assess whether mountains have warmed at a higher rate than the rest of the global land surface primarily because we lack adequate observations to resolve it conclusively. However, available observations suggest that some mountain regions may be experiencing higher warming rates on seasonal time scales. To explore the impacts of elevation on rates of temperature change within mountain regions, we have synthesized several important studies from four high mountain regions across the globe. It should be noted that the different regions considered in our study are vastly different in area, which allows for considerable geographical variability. Three of these regions are in mid-latitudes and one is in the tropics. However, the discussion of physical mechanisms reviewed here is applicable globally. Table 3 summarizes some key findings associat...
+
+### Query: "high altitude greater warming snow albedo feedback"
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=0.185)
+
+> Albedo. Snow–albedo feedback is an important positive feedback in Arctic amplification26,27, but it is also relevant in snow-domi- nated high-elevation regions14,28,29 where the seasonal timing of snow cover varies with elevation, and maximum warming rates commonly occur near the annual 0  °C isotherm9,30. In the Swiss Alps, the daily mean 2-m temperature of a spring day without snow cover is 0.4  °C higher than one with snow cover 31 (mean value for 1961–2012). The current snowline, which varies in elevation across different mountain ranges, is expected to retreat to higher elevations as the overall climate system warms. The definition of the snowline is not as simple as might be expected: different stud- ies in the Alps have yielded contrasting heights32–34. The elevation dependency of snow cover duration (and also of the snow/rain ratio) is nonlinear, so the rate of snowline retreat may increase as temperatures rise35. This will result in significant increases in the surface absorption of incoming solar radiation around the retreating snowline (approximated by the 0 °C isotherm), initially causing enhanced warming at that elevation36. As the snowline migrates upslope, this effec...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> anomalously cold period between 1983 and 1987, when some of the years had negative NAO indices, they found a switch in the sign of the altitudinal gradient in the wintertime minimum temperature anomalies. They concluded that temperature variability generally increased with altitude owing to a damping out of temperature lower elevations by local climatic effects. For the 1961–1999 period, anomalies at Jungo and Beniston (2001) found greater increases in the minimum temperature in winter at high altitudes in the Swiss Alps, however, they found greater increases in the maximum temperature in summer at low altitudes on the north side of the Alps. Giorgi et al. (1997) used a regional climate model (50 km spatial resolution) forced by doubled atmospheric CO2 levels to simulate seasonal climatic changes in the Swiss Alps. Their analysis suggested larger increases in average surface air temperature at higher elevations during all seasons, although the elevation dependence was most pronounced in winter and spring. The surface elevation range in their model, however, was only between 100 and 2000 m. Both spring and winter experienced large decreases in snow depth at higher elevations. Howeve...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.184)
+
+> Climatic Change 4 Mechanisms responsible for possible temperature enhancements There are a number of mechanisms that can produce enhanced warming rates in certain elevation bands, and they often have a strong seasonal dependence. These mechanisms arise from either elevation based differential changes in climate drivers, such as snow/ice cover, clouds, water vapor, aerosols, and soil moisture, or differential sensitivities of surface warming to changes in these drivers at different elevations. Table 2 describes the specific responses and the physical mechanisms based on changes in these climate drivers, and we discuss some of these mechanisms in more detail. 4.1 Snow/ice albedo feedbacks This is certainly one of the strongest feedbacks in the climate system, and it has a rapid response time. In response to a positive temperature anomaly, more snow melts thus decreasing the local albedo, which in turn leads to increased absorption of solar radiation and enhancement of the initial positive temperature anomaly. Since this feedback modulates the surface absorption of incoming solar radiation, it primarily affects changes in the maximum temperature. Increases in the minimum temperature a...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> the Himalayan Mountains arising from anthropogenic activities might be responsible for half the total warming there during the last several decades. Because black carbon affects the radiation budget in two ways – it absorbs radiation in the troposphere and decreases the surface albedo when deposited on snow – it is very difficult to assess its effect on elevation-dependent warming. Depending on the elevation at which black carbon is deposited it could either contribute to enhanced or reduced warming with elevation during the melt season. Xu et al. (2009) suggest that atmospherically deposited black carbon can increase the absorption of visible radiation by 10–100% in the Tibetan Glaciers. Black carbon can also causes decreases in cloud cover and affect the radiation budget at the surface (Hansen et al. 1997). 4.4.2 Absorbing aerosols: dust Similar to black carbon, dust absorbs radiation within the atmosphere and reduces surface albedo when deposited on snow. Painter et al. (2007) analyzed several snow events in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and found that strong wind events in spring transport large --- Climatic Change amounts of dust from arid regions to the west. This causes a sig...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.209)
+
+> vapor in winter. The snow/ice-albedo feedback is important in the Arctic Ocean, and most of the mountain studies that address it find it to be important there, too. Chen et al. (2006a) showed that increasing water vapor in the Arctic could enhance winter warming rates because the sensitivity of downward longwave radiation to water vapor is much greater when the atmo- sphere is drier, as commonly found in winter. A similar effect can occur in high mountain regions in winter (Ruckstuhl et al. 2007; Rangwala et al. 2010). Our review suggests that high elevation regions will remain sensitive to the projected warming during the 21st century and that we will need to improve our understanding of how different climate drivers influence changes in high mountain regions. An essential require- ment for this is to increase climate monitoring of high elevations sites. This should also include monitoring of a greater number of climate parameters that help to better assess energy fluxes and moisture availability at the land surface. Greater use of remote sensing tools and high-resolution climate modeling will be required to augment the ground obser- vations. Nevertheless, it will still require a ...
+
+### Query: "lapse rate change warming mountain valley contrast"
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=0.305)
+
+> REVIEW ARTICLE PUBLISHED ONLINE: 23 APRIL 2015 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2563 Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group* There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations. Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) can accelerate the rate of change in mountain ecosystems, cryospheric systems, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. Here we review important mechanisms that contribute towards EDW: snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks; water vapour changes and latent heat release; surface water vapour and radiative flux changes; surface heat loss and temperature change; and aerosols. All lead to enhanced warming with elevation (or at a critical elevation), and it is believed that combinations of these mechanisms may account for contrasting regional patterns of EDW. We discuss future needs to increase knowledge of mountain temperature trends and their controlling mechanisms through improved observations, satellite-based remote sensing and model simulations. It is well known that the ...
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Evidence for elevation-dependent warming In theory, it should be simple to document the rate and geographical pattern of warming with elevation over recent decades. However, many factors make it extremely difficult to determine the rate of warming in mountainous regions. First and foremost, long-term meteorological stations (with more than 20  years of records) are extremely sparse at high elevations. For example, in the GHCNv3 database of homogenized stations, out of 7,297 stations, only 191 (3%) are above 2,000 m and 54 (0.7%) above 3,000 m, and long-term data are simply non-existent above 5,000 m in any mountain range1. Unlike in the Arctic, which is relatively homogenous, mountain tem- peratures suffer from extreme local variability due to factors such as topography, slope, aspect and exposure. Of the high-elevation sta- tions in the GHCNv3 database, very few are on isolated peaks or plateau, and most observations within high-mountain regions are taken from valleys with distinct microclimates prone to cold air drainage2–4, which makes it hard to separate noise from trend. Evidence for EDW could also come from satellite data, atmos- pheric reanalysis or model studies, but these ...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.302)
+
+> Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0419-3 Climate change in mountains: a review of elevation-dependent warming and its possible causes Imtiaz Rangwala & James R. Miller Received: 25 April 2011 / Accepted: 27 January 2012 # Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 Abstract Available observations suggest that some mountain regions are experiencing sea- sonal warming rates that are greater than the global land average. There is also evidence from observational and modeling studies for an elevation-dependent climate response within some mountain regions. Our understanding of climate change in mountains, however, remains challenging owing to inadequacies in observations and models. In fact, it is still uncertain whether mountainous regions generally are warming at a different rate than the rest of the global land surface, or whether elevation-based sensitivities in warming rates are prevalent within mountains. We review studies of four high mountain regions – the Swiss Alps, the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas, and the Tropical Andes – to examine questions related to the sensitivity of climate change to surface elevation. We explore processes that could lead...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.309)
+
+> In fact, there are even studies within the same mountain region which obtain different results regarding elevation-dependent warming rates. For example, Liu and Chen (2000), Liu et al. (2009), Qin et al. (2009) and Rangwala et al. (2009) found increased warming rates at higher altitudes in the Tibetan Plateau in the latter half of the 20th century, while You et al. (2010) found no elevation-based trends and the study by Lu et al. (2010) suggests greater warming trends at lower elevations. Because some studies have found increases in warming rates with elevation in mountain regions and others have found decreases, references to elevation- dependent responses in this review refer to either case. There are two fundamental questions regarding climate change in high elevation regions. One is whether the rate of warming within mountain regions is changing at a different rate than rest of the global land surface, and the second is whether the rates of change differ depending on elevation within a specific mountain region. In this --- Climatic Change paper, we review studies that have examined these questions using both observations and climate model output from selected high mountain regi...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> There are very few analyses that examine elevation-dependent warming trends in mountains at the global scale. Most studies focus on a particular region. In this section we summarize some of these global studies. Diaz and Bradley (1997) used observations from more than 100 sites between 30 and 70°N latitude and found that mean temperature warming rates were enhanced at many higher elevation sites between 1951 and 1989. Furthermore, they found that most of the increase was associated with increases in minimum temperatures, and that the trends in maximum temperatures were small. Beniston et al. (1997) indicate that enhanced warming rates at higher elevations may be more apparent in the tropics. Pepin and Seidel (2005) found that surface temperatures at the majority of high elevation stations across the --- Climatic Change globe are increasing faster than the free air temperature at the same elevation between 1948 and 2002. They also found less discrepancy between surface and free-air temperatures at mountain summits relative to mountain valleys. Overall, however, they found no elevation dependence of warming rates. One of the more comprehensive global studies is that of Pepin and Lund...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.299)
+
+> attributed to elevation, aerosols could either enhance or reduce heating rates in mountains. There is still very little evidence in the literature about the role of reflective aerosols in mountain regions. Rangwala et al. (2010) found some evidence that aerosol concentrations have been higher at lower elevations in the Tibetan Plateau. This would cause the rate of increase of daytime maximum temperatures to be lower at these lower elevations and consequently contribute to an elevation gradient in warming rates. 5 Discussion In this review, we have explored available literature to address two important questions related to climate change in the mountain regions: (1) are mountain regions warming faster than low lying regions, and (2) is there an elevation-dependent climate response within mountain regions? From the available studies, it remains difficult to sufficiently assess whether mountains have warmed at a higher rate than the rest of the global land surface primarily because we lack adequate observations to resolve it conclusively. However, available observations suggest that some mountain regions may be experiencing higher warming rates on seasonal time scales. To explore the ...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.301)
+
+> Additional difficulties in reconciling all of the studies here arise because of the spatial and temporal differences in the studies and the influence of climate variability. Both of these differences introduce statistical uncertainties because we know that neither spatial nor temporal changes in temperature will be uniform globally. In some regions and during specific periods, temperatures will be increasing faster than the global average, while in other regions they will be increasing more slowly or even decreasing. There are similarities between some of the mechanisms associated with enhanced warming rates in mountains and enhanced warming rates in the Arctic region. Both have significant snow and ice at the surface, are very cold in winter, and have generally low concentrations of atmospheric water vapor in winter. The snow/ice-albedo feedback is important in the Arctic Ocean, and most of the mountain studies that address it find it to be important there, too. Chen et al. (2006a) showed that increasing water vapor in the Arctic could enhance winter warming rates because the sensitivity of downward longwave radiation to water vapor is much greater when the atmo- sphere is drier, ...
+
+## climate_stream_temp_bridge
+
+### Query: "air temperature stream temperature relationship summer maximum"
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=0.294)
+
+> en freshwater species of fish, as reported by Eaton et al. (1995); results of analyses of the relationship between air Materials and methods | temperature | and stream-water temperatures | | | (Stefan and | | | | | | ------------ | ------------------------------ | --- | --- | ------------ | --- | --- | --- | --- | Preud’hommc 1993; Sinokrot and Stefan 1993); and a Surface water temperature data -Records from the | | | | | | USGS national | water data storage and retrieval | | (WATS- | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -------------- | --------------------------------- | ---------------------- | ------- | | | | | | | TORE) daily | values file (Showen | 1980) were the source | | Acknowledgments of baseline stream-water temperatures that were used to | We thank | Doug Fairchild | for assistance in locating | | and ac- | | | | | | ------------- | ---------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------- | ------------- | ---------- | ------------------------ | -------------------------- | ---------------------- | --------------- | | | | | | | estimate climate | change effects. 
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> | ed to the U.S. EPA Cray C94 supercomputer | | | | to calculate | | | | | | | | weekly mean temperatures for every week on record for matched with the corresponding CCC-GCM grid cell to every USGS stream sampling station. obtain the predicted 2 x CO2 air temperature change, which The effect of climate change on stream temperatures was then added to the baseline water temperature to es- was estimated by integrating projections from the Ca- timate 2 x CO, water temperatures. Based on field studies | | | | | | of the air-water | | temperature | relationship, | | Stefan and | | | ---------------- | ------------------------------ | --- | --- | ------------ | ------------------- | ------- | ------------ | -------------- | ------ | ------------ | --- | | nadian Climate | Center general circulation | | | model (CCC- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Preud’homme | (1993) | found | weekly | water | temperature | | | GCM) with | the USGS stream temperatures. | | | The CCC- | | | | | | | | 
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> determined by the inflow to low-order streams of cooler = 0.16, n = 16). These results are due to a scale effect groundwater. He calculated that the range limits of brook whereby it is less likely that suitable temperatures will trout correspond to an annual groundwater mean of 15°C still exist in a small geographic area (species range) after which is - l-2°C higher than mean annual air tempera- climate change than in a larger geographic area with its ture. In summer, however, these low-order stream reaches greater diversity of thermal conditions. Other detrimental with relatively more groundwater inflow have cooler tem- environmental conditions caused by climate change, such peratures than those containing a higher proportion of as reduced stream flow or vegetation changes and reduced surface water runoff. Therefore, the effect of climate shading, will also influence future distribution, and these warming in groundwater-fed stream reaches often occu- effects could likewise be magnified for species with the pied by trout and certain other species probably is some- smallest initial distribution. what overestimated by the 0.9 air-water conversion fac- The projected decrease in habita...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> The overarching question to be addressed in this study is: How will climate change alter the potential reproductive success of Washington State’s salmon, and where and under what conditions is freshwater habitat for salmon most vulnerable to direct hydroclimate (rising water temperatures and altered flow) effects of climate change? Guided by the Independent Scientific Advisory Board’s (ISAB 2007) and Crozier et al.’s (2008a, b) reviews of climate change impacts on salmon productivity in the Columbia River Basin, we limit our study to focus on the following subsidiary questions: What will be the role of climate change in coming decades on summertime water temperatures? Author's personal copy --- Climatic Change (2010) 102:187–223 189 How will a changing climate affect summer low flows and flood peaks? How, and in which watersheds, will these hydrologic changes likely affect the reproductive success for salmon? We use three approaches to address these research questions. First, we employ the statistical modeling approach of Mohseni et al. (1998) to relate past surface air temperatures to stream temperatures, and apply these relationships trained on past climate in conjunction with pr...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.294)
+
+> change in precipitation, and temperature sensitivities for six locations in the Yakima River basin. A 10% increase in precipitation caused an increase in runoff by a factor of 1.59 for the entire basin. An average daily temperature increase of 1◦C, applied by increasing both minimum and maximum temperature, reduced basin runoff by approximately 2.45% to 5.77%, depending on location. Alternatively, the same average daily increase, by altering maximum temperature only, reduced runoff by 5.15% to 9.81%, depending on location. 2.3 Non-linear stream temperature regression models Mohseni et al. (1998) used weekly average air temperature to predict weekly average water temperatures, and we use the same approach here using the data available for all of the sites (air and water temperatures). The regression models developed by Mohseni et al. (1998) show that the relationship between weekly air and water temperatures is best described by a nonlinear S-shaped function: Tw = μ + α − μ 1 + eγ (β−Tai ) where Tw is the estimated weekly average stream temperature, μ is the estimated minimum stream temperature (set to ≥0 since the rivers in this study never freeze), α is the estimated maximum strea...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.282)
+
+> For instance, summer water temperatures in the mainstem Columbia River some- times reach lethal limits for sockeye salmon (Naughton et al. 2005), and frequently pose thermal migration barriers for fall chinook salmon (Goniea et al. 2006) and summer steelhead (High et al. 2006). Under historical conditions, all but one of the stations in our study with extreme high water temperature are located in eastern Washington. The western Washington exception in our data set is for the University Bridge station, located in a short channel between Portage Bay and Lake Union in Seattle. This site is located in a migration corridor for summer-running adult sockeye and chinook salmon. Our stream temperature modeling predicts significant increases in water tem- peratures and thermal stress for salmon statewide for both A1B and B1 emissions scenarios. The projected annual maximum Tw patterns shown in Fig. 2 indicate there will be large increases in the number of stations that are especially unfavorable for salmon in summer (where Tw > 21◦C). Figure 2 also shows the encroachment of summertime air temperatures with Ta > 18◦C becoming the norm for western Washington by the 2040s, and for this period o...
+
+### Query: "salmon habitat thermal stress climate change Pacific Northwest"
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.174)
+
+> Abstract This study evaluates the sensitivity of Washington State’s freshwater habi- tat of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) to climate change. Our analysis focuses on summertime stream temperatures, seasonal low flows, and changes in peak and base flows because these physical factors are likely to be key pressure points for many of Washington’s salmon populations. Weekly summertime water temperatures and extreme daily high and low streamflows are evaluated under multimodel composites for A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally stress salmon throughout Washington’s watersheds, be- coming increasingly severe later in the twenty-first century. Streamflow simulations predict that basins strongly influenced by transient runoff (a mix of direct runoff from cool-season rainfall and springtime snowmelt) are most sensitive to climate change. By the 2080s, hydrologic simulations predict a complete loss of Washington’s snowmelt dominant basins, and only about ten transient basins remaining in the north Cascades. Historically transient runoff watersheds will shift towards rainfall dominant behavior, undergoing more severe s...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.172)
+
+> In the absence of rapid adaptation to changing habitat conditions, our assessment or future stream temperature and stream flow changes and historical limiting factors points to widespread declines in the quality and quantity of freshwater habitat for Washington’s salmon and steelhead populations. We summarize key climate change impacts on Washington’s freshwater habitat for salmon in Fig. 11, and also show how those impacts are phased with key life stages for a generic ocean-type and stream- type salmon life history, along with generic summer-run and winter-run steelhead life histories. Significant increases in stream temperature alone point to significant increases in thermal stress for Washington’s salmon populations having a stream-type life history that puts them in freshwater during summer for either spawning migrations, spawning, rearing, or seaward smolt migrations. In the absence of thermal cues for initiating spawning migrations, temperature impacts on adult spawning migrations are projected to be most severe for stocks having summertime migrations. These include summer-run steelhead, sockeye, and summer chinook salmon populations in the Columbia Basin, and sockeye and chi...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> A particular challenge for watershed restoration efforts will be to match projects to both existing and future threats to salmon habitat. Battin et al’s. (2007) study of climate change, restoration options, and their impacts on Snohomish ocean- type chinook salmon noted that most practical restoration actions are aimed at lower elevation floodplains, but that the most severe negative impacts for this stock were found in higher elevation spawning and rearing areas where the hydrologic sensitivity to climate change was greatest. Martin (2006) suggests that thermal refugia will increasingly be limited to the headwater reaches of Northwest streams, while future human population increases and the impacts on land and water use will be concentrated in low-elevation floodplains. He advocates renewed efforts to protect floodplains as migration corridors and to reconnect watersheds to largely protected headwater areas by removing dams and other barriers to upstream fish passage. 6 Research gaps and recommendations for future research This analysis was based on a subset of single stations for streamflow and stream temperatures, yet these stations may not be representative of the complex and v...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.184)
+
+> Because salmon life histories integrate across a complex network of freshwater, estuarine, and marine habitats, and because people compete directly and indirectly for resources that are important for salmon, an understanding of salmon ecology begs for integrated studies that cross multiple disciplines. For example, impacts of both climate change and ocean acidification on the ocean ecology of salmon are among the least understood, but possibly most important, aspects of salmon ecology in the coming decades (Fabry et al. 2008). Perhaps even more important for adaptation planning in Washington State are efforts to integrate so-called human dimensions of climate change into impacts studies for salmon. As noted by Miles et al. (1999), future climate change is likely to sharpen tradeoffs over water resources because it favors reductions in streamflows during summer when human demands and ecosystem needs for water are often greatest. Author's personal copy --- 212 Climatic Change (2010) 102:187–223 A better understanding for genetic and phenotypic adaptations in salmon is also needed to understand the capacity for adaptation, and whether adaptations might keep pace with future habitat ch...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.179)
+
+> in rainfall dominant and transient runoff watersheds may be more extreme than what we show in our analysis. Such changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme hydroclimate events will have important consequences for disturbance regimes that are important for in-stream habitat features and the reproductive success of salmon. Linking regional climate modeling to hydrologic modeling should be pursued to better evaluate the impacts of climate change on extreme events important for freshwater habitat for salmon. 7 Conclusions Simulated stream temperatures under future climate scenarios highlight increased thermal stress on Washington’s salmon populations in the warmest summer months. Our analysis predicts that a growing number of locations will experience increasingly longer periods with weekly average water temperatures that are high enough to cause thermal migration barriers and increase the risk of fish kills (> 21◦C). Gen- erally speaking, the greatest thermal stresses on Washington’s salmon are projected for watersheds in the interior Columbia Basin, while the least are projected for watersheds in western Washington. Among the sites modeled in this study, the Lake Washington sh...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Newell JA, Fresh KL, Quinn TA (2007) Arrival patterns and movements of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus) in Lake Washington: implications for management of an urban fishery. North Am J Fish Manage 27(3):908–917 O’Neal K (2002) Effects of global warming on trout and salmon in U.S. streams. Defenders of Wildlife, Washington, 46 pp Pearcy WM (1992) Ocean ecology of North Pacific salmonids. Washington Sea Grant, Seattle, 179 pp Rand PS, Hinch SG, Morrison J, Foreman MGG, MacNutt MJ, Macdonald JS, Healey MC, Farrell AP, Higgs DA (2006) Effects of river discharge, temperature, and future climates on energetics and mortality of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon. Trans Am Fish Soc 135:655–667 Reeves GH, Everest FH, Nickelson TE (1989) Identification of physical habitats limiting the pro- duction of Coho salmon in western Oregon and Washington. Technical Report PNW-GTR-245, US Dep of Agric, For Service, Pacific Northwest Res Sn, Portland, OR Richter A, Kolmes SA (2005) Maximum temperature limits for chinook, coho, and chum salmon, and steelhead trout in the pacific northwest. Rev in Fish Sci 13(1):23–49. doi:10.1080/ 10641260590885861 Salathé EP Jr, Leung LR, Qian Y, Zhang Y (20...
+
+### Query: "summertime stream temperature warming impact freshwater fish"
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=0.211)
+
+> | ------- | --------------- | ---------- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | Abstract The effects of climate warming on the thermal habitat of 57 species of fish of the U.S. were estimated using results for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that were predicted by the Canadian Climate Center general circulation model. Baseline water temperature conditions were calculated from data collected at 1,700 U.S. Geological Survey stream monitoring stations across the U.S. Water temperatures after predicted climate change were obtained by multiplying air temperature changes by 0.9, a factor based on several field studies, and adding them to baseline water temperatures at stations in corresponding grid cells. Results indicated that habitat for cold and cool water fish would be reduced by -5O%, and that this effect would be distributed throughout the existing range of these species. Habitat losses were greater among species with smaller initial distributions and in geographic regions with the greatest warming (e.g. the central Midwest). Results for warm water fish habitat were less certain because of the poor state of knowledge regarding their high and low temperature tolerances; howe...
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=0.222)
+
+> determined by the inflow to low-order streams of cooler = 0.16, n = 16). These results are due to a scale effect groundwater. He calculated that the range limits of brook whereby it is less likely that suitable temperatures will trout correspond to an annual groundwater mean of 15°C still exist in a small geographic area (species range) after which is - l-2°C higher than mean annual air tempera- climate change than in a larger geographic area with its ture. In summer, however, these low-order stream reaches greater diversity of thermal conditions. Other detrimental with relatively more groundwater inflow have cooler tem- environmental conditions caused by climate change, such peratures than those containing a higher proportion of as reduced stream flow or vegetation changes and reduced surface water runoff. Therefore, the effect of climate shading, will also influence future distribution, and these warming in groundwater-fed stream reaches often occu- effects could likewise be magnified for species with the pied by trout and certain other species probably is some- smallest initial distribution. what overestimated by the 0.9 air-water conversion fac- The projected decrease in habita...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.217)
+
+> Abstract This study evaluates the sensitivity of Washington State’s freshwater habi- tat of Pacific Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) to climate change. Our analysis focuses on summertime stream temperatures, seasonal low flows, and changes in peak and base flows because these physical factors are likely to be key pressure points for many of Washington’s salmon populations. Weekly summertime water temperatures and extreme daily high and low streamflows are evaluated under multimodel composites for A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally stress salmon throughout Washington’s watersheds, be- coming increasingly severe later in the twenty-first century. Streamflow simulations predict that basins strongly influenced by transient runoff (a mix of direct runoff from cool-season rainfall and springtime snowmelt) are most sensitive to climate change. By the 2080s, hydrologic simulations predict a complete loss of Washington’s snowmelt dominant basins, and only about ten transient basins remaining in the north Cascades. Historically transient runoff watersheds will shift towards rainfall dominant behavior, undergoing more severe s...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> In the absence of rapid adaptation to changing habitat conditions, our assessment or future stream temperature and stream flow changes and historical limiting factors points to widespread declines in the quality and quantity of freshwater habitat for Washington’s salmon and steelhead populations. We summarize key climate change impacts on Washington’s freshwater habitat for salmon in Fig. 11, and also show how those impacts are phased with key life stages for a generic ocean-type and stream- type salmon life history, along with generic summer-run and winter-run steelhead life histories. Significant increases in stream temperature alone point to significant increases in thermal stress for Washington’s salmon populations having a stream-type life history that puts them in freshwater during summer for either spawning migrations, spawning, rearing, or seaward smolt migrations. In the absence of thermal cues for initiating spawning migrations, temperature impacts on adult spawning migrations are projected to be most severe for stocks having summertime migrations. These include summer-run steelhead, sockeye, and summer chinook salmon populations in the Columbia Basin, and sockeye and chi...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> in August), which in turn contributed to postive growth responses in juvenile coho salmon, accelerations in the freshwater component of coho salmon life histories, and increases in overwinter survival rates for rearing juveniles. However, these changes in freshwater development appear to have been compensated by reduced marine survival rates associated with earlier smolt migrations to the ocean that may have been mis-matched to the optimal timing for ocean prey and/or predator fields. Holtby (1988) estimated that warmer stream temperatures increased the full life-cycle coho production in this system by ∼9%. It seems likely that the potential for positive impacts of future stream warming are greatest in Washington’s coldest streams, either in the maritime climatic zones of Western Washington or in high elevation stream reaches. Because of the earlier timing of snowmelt and increased evaporation, most of Washington’s river basins are projected to experience reduced streamflow in summer and early fall that results in an extended period of summer low flows, while rainfall-dominant and transient runoff basins are also projected to have substantially lower base flows. In combination with...
+
+## salmonid_thermal_envelope
+
+### Query: "chinook coho steelhead maximum temperature limits thermal tolerance"
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> | | | | | | | | Mountain whitefish | Prosopium | williamsoni | 265 | 172 | -35.1 23.1 | sults. | | | | | | | | Cutthroat trout | Oncorhynchus | clarki | 378 | 226 | -40.2 23.3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---------------- | ------------- | -------- | ---- | ---- | ------------ | | | | | | | | | Coho salmon | Oncorhynchus | kisutch | 323 | 169 | -47.7 23.4 | | | | | | | | | Chinook salmon | | | 379 | 215 | -43.3 24.0 | Fish thermal tolerance-The fish and temperature da- Oncorhynchus tshawytscha | | | | | | | | Rainbow trout | Oncorhynchus | mykiss | 632 | 322 | -49.1 24.0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -------------- | ------------- | ------- | ---- | ---- | ------------ | tabase matching system (FTDMS) described by Eaton et Brown trout Salmo trulta 638 330 -48.3 24.1 Mottled sculpin al. (1995) has been used to obtain maximum temperatures Cottus bairdi 324 159 -50.9 24.3 | | | | | | | | Total | | | 3,641 | 1,930 | -47.0 | | ---------- | --- | ---------------------- | --- | --- | ----------- | --------- | ------ | --- | --- | ------ | ------ | ------ | | tolerated | by | 57 fish species found | | | throughout | the U.S. | | | | | | | Cool water (Table ...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.316)
+
+> Based on recent agency reviews, we chose a single critical threshold of a weekly average water temperature of 21◦C as an indicator for thermal migration barriers and an elevated risk for fish kills. This choice greatly simplifies our analysis, but it does so at the expense of neglecting stock-specific, species-specific, and life-stage specific differences in thermal sensitivities of salmon. The Washington Department of Ecology (DOE) established water temperature standards for salmon habitat at various stages of their life history in Chapter 173–201A of the Washington Adminis- trative Code (WAC), and these were subsequently reviewed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 2007). The DOE and EPA express temperature thresholds for salmon as the 7-day average of the daily maximum temperature (7DADMax). Among adult salmon, the 7DADMax is lethal at ∼23◦C, migration is inhibited at ∼24◦C, and the risk of disease is elevated at ∼14◦C. The models we used in this study estimate weekly average temperatures (hereafter Tw) rather than 7DADMax, so we must use an appropriately adjusted criteria. The EPA (2007) determined Table 2 Maximum weekly temperature upper thermal tolerances for salmonid...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.317)
+
+> It is also important to note that there are sometimes shared and sometimes different limiting environmental factors for different stocks and different species of Pacific salmon because of life history diversity and heterogenous habitat types. For example, studies by Beechie et al. (1994) and Reeves et al. (1989) indicate that the most important factors for juvenile coho freshwater survival are (1) the in-stream temperature during the first summer, combined with the availability of deep pools to mitigate high temperatures; and (2) temperature during the second winter, combined with the availability of beaver ponds and backwater pools to serve as refuges from cold temperatures and high streamflow events. Consequently, a particularly troublesome scenario for coho involves an increase in summer water temperature in combination with a decrease in summer streamflow and an increase in winter peak flows. Battin et al. (2007) found that of the factors they evaluated for climate change impacts on ocean-type chinook in the Snohomish Basin, projected increases in extreme high flows by far had the greatest negative impact on the reproductive success of salmon. 2.5 Methods for extreme high and l...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> In the absence of rapid adaptation to changing habitat conditions, our assessment or future stream temperature and stream flow changes and historical limiting factors points to widespread declines in the quality and quantity of freshwater habitat for Washington’s salmon and steelhead populations. We summarize key climate change impacts on Washington’s freshwater habitat for salmon in Fig. 11, and also show how those impacts are phased with key life stages for a generic ocean-type and stream- type salmon life history, along with generic summer-run and winter-run steelhead life histories. Significant increases in stream temperature alone point to significant increases in thermal stress for Washington’s salmon populations having a stream-type life history that puts them in freshwater during summer for either spawning migrations, spawning, rearing, or seaward smolt migrations. In the absence of thermal cues for initiating spawning migrations, temperature impacts on adult spawning migrations are projected to be most severe for stocks having summertime migrations. These include summer-run steelhead, sockeye, and summer chinook salmon populations in the Columbia Basin, and sockeye and chi...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.306)
+
+> ecosystem processes. ICES J Mar Sci 65:414–432 Farrell AP, Hinch SG, Cooke SJ, Patterson DA, Crossin GT, Lapointe M, Mathes MT (2008) Pacific salmon in hot water: applying aerobic scope models and biotelemetry to predict the success of spawning migrations. Physiol Biochem Zool 81(6):697–708 Goniea TM, Keefer ML, Bjornn TC, Peery CA, Bennett DH (2006) Behavioral thermoregulation and slowed migration by adult fall chinook salmon in response to high Columbia River water temperatures. Trans of the Am Fish Soc 135:408–419. doi:10.1577/T04-113.1 Greene CM, Jensen DW, Beamer E, Pess GR, Steel EA (2005) Effects of environmental conditions during stream, estuary, and ocean residency on chinook salmon return rates in the Skagit River, WA. Trans of the Am Fish Soc 134:1562–1581 Healey MC (1991) In: Groot C, Margolis L (eds) Pacific Salmon Life Histories. Univ British Columbia Press, Vancouver, Canada, pp 313–393 High B, Perry CA, Bennett DH (2006) Temporary staging of Columbia River summer steelhead in cool-water areas and its effect on migration rates. Trans Am Fish Soc 135:519–528 Hodgson S, Quinn TP (2002) The timing of adult sockeye salmon migration into fresh water: adaptations by popula...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.288)
+
+> Reeves GH, Everest FH, Nickelson TE (1989) Identification of physical habitats limiting the pro- duction of Coho salmon in western Oregon and Washington. Technical Report PNW-GTR-245, US Dep of Agric, For Service, Pacific Northwest Res Sn, Portland, OR Richter A, Kolmes SA (2005) Maximum temperature limits for chinook, coho, and chum salmon, and steelhead trout in the pacific northwest. Rev in Fish Sci 13(1):23–49. doi:10.1080/ 10641260590885861 Salathé EP Jr, Leung LR, Qian Y, Zhang Y (2010) Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9849-y Schindler DE, Rogers LA (2009) Responses of salmon populations to climate variations in fresh- water ecosystems. In: Krueger CC, Zimmerman CE (eds) Pacific salmon: ecology and manage- ment of western Alaska’s populations. American Fisheries Society, Symposium 70, Bethesda, pp 1127–1142 Seiler D, Neuhauser S, Kishimoto L (2003) 2002 Skagit River wild 01 chinook production evaluation annual report. Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Olympia SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) (2000) Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Swart, Rob (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Ki...
+
+### Query: "salmonid critical lethal temperature threshold thermal stress"
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.257)
+
+> Author's personal copy --- 194 Climatic Change (2010) 102:187–223 into four 30-year intervals: 1970–1999, 2010–2039, 2030–2059, 2070–2099. Sites and time periods where weekly temperatures exceed 21◦C were flagged as indicators for potential migration barriers and extreme thermal stress for salmon, although it is important to keep in mind that not all these sites are in stream reaches that typically host juvenile or adult salmon during the warmest summer months. 2.4 Stream temperature and streamflow criteria used for assessing impacts on salmon Water temperature is a key aspect of water quality for salmonids, and excessively high water temperature can act as a limiting factor for the distribution, migration, health and performance of salmonids (e.g. McCullough 1999; Richter and Kolmes 2005; EPA 2007; Farrell et al. 2008). Excessively warm waters can inhibit salmon migration and breeding patterns, and reduce cold-water refugia and connectivity. When average water temperatures are greater than 15◦C salmon can suffer increased predation and competitive disadvantages with native and non-native warm water fish (EPA 2007). Water temperatures exceeding 21–22◦C can prevent migration. Furthe...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.259)
+
+> Significant increases in stream temperature alone point to significant increases in thermal stress for Washington’s salmon populations having a stream-type life history that puts them in freshwater during summer for either spawning migrations, spawning, rearing, or seaward smolt migrations. In the absence of thermal cues for initiating spawning migrations, temperature impacts on adult spawning migrations are projected to be most severe for stocks having summertime migrations. These include summer-run steelhead, sockeye, and summer chinook salmon populations in the Columbia Basin, and sockeye and chinook salmon in the Lake Washington system. Increased stream temperatures pose risks to the quality and quantity of favorable rearing habitat for stream-type chinook and coho salmon and steelhead (summer and winter run) throughout Washington because these stocks spend at least one summer (and for Washington’s steelhead typically two summers) rearing in freshwater. Reductions in the volume of summer/fall low flows in transient and rainfall-dominated basins might also reduce the availability of spawning habitat for salmon populations that spawn early in the fall (e.g. Healey 1991). Predicte...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> 6 Research gaps and recommendations for future research This analysis was based on a subset of single stations for streamflow and stream temperatures, yet these stations may not be representative of the complex and varied habitat features found within most salmon watersheds that provide critical refugia from stressful or even lethal water temperatures and streamflows. The widespread distribution and large magnitude of predicted negative impacts described in this study highlight an urgent need for mapping existing and potential thermal and hydrologic refugia in order to prioritize habitat protection and restoration efforts. To date, there are few case studies aimed at understanding the impacts of climate change on restoration alternatives for specific watersheds and salmon stocks in Washington State. Yet, because salmon life histories are locally adapted and Washington’s freshwater salmon habitat is diverse, such efforts should be given high priority where long-term investments in salmon habitat protection and restoration are considered. Battin et al.’s (2007) study of climate change and habitat restoration options for Snohomish chinook salmon provides an informative framework for c...
+
+### Query: "cold water refugia thermal habitat fish temperature criteria"
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=0.229)
+
+> | ------- | --------------- | ---------- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | Abstract The effects of climate warming on the thermal habitat of 57 species of fish of the U.S. were estimated using results for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that were predicted by the Canadian Climate Center general circulation model. Baseline water temperature conditions were calculated from data collected at 1,700 U.S. Geological Survey stream monitoring stations across the U.S. Water temperatures after predicted climate change were obtained by multiplying air temperature changes by 0.9, a factor based on several field studies, and adding them to baseline water temperatures at stations in corresponding grid cells. Results indicated that habitat for cold and cool water fish would be reduced by -5O%, and that this effect would be distributed throughout the existing range of these species. Habitat losses were greater among species with smaller initial distributions and in geographic regions with the greatest warming (e.g. the central Midwest). Results for warm water fish habitat were less certain because of the poor state of knowledge regarding their high and low temperature tolerances; howe...
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=0.225)
+
+> | | | | | | | | b-West | 1966; c-Coutant | and Cox 1976; d-Lemke | | | 1977. | temperature of 26°C or higher, which is above the FI’DMS | tolerance | range for cold | | water | species but | | includes the | | | | | | | | ---------------- | --------------- | ------------------------------------------- | ------ | ------------------------ | --- | -------------- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | range for all | | cool water species, was used to define the | | | | | | | | | | | | low temperature | | tolerance limit | | for warm water species. | | | | | | | | | | 1112 | | | Eaton and Scheller | | | | | | ----- | --- | --- | -------------------- | --- | --- | --- | --- | Fig. 2. USGS monitoring stations with suitable thermal habitat for rainbow trout before and after climate warming. The maximum tolerance for rainbow trout was 24.O”C. Before climate change, suitable habitat at 632 sampling sites-Cl; after climate change, at 322 of 632 sites-O. The rationale for this value is that cool water and warm Eaton et al. (1995) and seen in Table 1, the thermal water fish frequently occupy the same habitats, but that boundary between cool and warm water fish guilds is cold and warm water fis...
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> | | | | | | | Winter thermal conditions may also restrict the distri- The results of the analysis of climate warming effects bution of a few cool-water species whose northern range for the 57 species considered are presented in Table 1. A limit is close to the U.S.-Canada border (e.g. northern nearly 50% reduction in thermal habitat is projected for hog sucker), but the lack of cold tolerance information cold and cool water species, but only a 14.2% decrease is | | | | | estimated for warm water fish. The distribution | | of USGS | | | -------------------------------- | --- | ----------------- | -------- | ------------------------------------------------ | --- | -------- | --- | | leaves us no better alternative | | than to use high | temper- | | | | | ature tolerances (i.e. FTDMS values). monitoring sites where suitable habitat is projected before | | | | | and after climate | warming is illustrated | in Figs. 2-4 | by | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ------------------ | ------------------------ | ------------- | --- | Climate change efects- We expressed the effect of cli- representative cold (rainbow trout), cool (white sucker), mate change on species as the number of USGS moni- and ...
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=0.217)
+
+> When they are near equilibrium with air temperature, of climate change and therefore would experience an in- mean daily water temperatures during summer are gen- crease in habitat without significant loss. However, the erally slightly cooler than corresponding air temperatures, thermal tolerance of the least tolerant warm water species although water can be warmer than the air and exceed a is very close to that of cool water species and these species factor of 1.0 (Stefan and Preud’homme 1993). will all be similarly sensitive to climate warming. Fur- Among all the cool water fish species, those with the thermore, the magnitude of water temperature change in 1114 Eaton and Scheller Fig. 4. As Fig. 2, but for largemouth bass.T he tolerance range for largemouth bass was 26.0-35.5”C. Before climate change, el-l 1. 1 1 a.-> -. nnm l-4 -7-r -a*- - -I-- -1. 1 ‘I - -1 4 ,/* -A-1 v-r -‘L-- A suitaole nauirar at UYL 01 I, I I 0 sites-u; arter climate cnange,a t I, I 0 3 01 I, I I 0 sires-w. many areas approaches or exceeds the entire range in high et al. 1996) or the rate of climate change. We also expect tolerance temperatures for the cool and warm water fish that where thermal conditions b...
+
+**`eaton_scheller1996`** (cos_dist=0.229)
+
+> The results in Table 1 indicate again knowledge about the thermal requirements of warm water that the most widely distributed warm water species (fat- fish. This knowledge deficit produces substantial uncer- head minnows, green sunfish, channel catfish, etc.) will tainty in estimates of the number of stations with suitable benefit most from climate warming. habitat before and after climate change. A sensitivity Another possible influence on the results is that the analysis revealed that if winter temperature tolerance cor- region (grid cells) where a species had been observed to responded to a summer maximum of 28°C instead of 26 establish a baseline distribution (except for the eight uni- and the summer maximum for the south-of-the-border versally distributed species) was also the only area within species without UZNGs were 35°C instead of 34 (and which a species could expand under climate warming therefore closer to the average UZNG), the projected conditions. Therefore, the results of our analysis may change in habitat after climate warming would be a 14% overestimate the effect of climate change (habitat reduc- increase. Even under the latter scenario, however, the tion) on som...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Author's personal copy --- 194 Climatic Change (2010) 102:187–223 into four 30-year intervals: 1970–1999, 2010–2039, 2030–2059, 2070–2099. Sites and time periods where weekly temperatures exceed 21◦C were flagged as indicators for potential migration barriers and extreme thermal stress for salmon, although it is important to keep in mind that not all these sites are in stream reaches that typically host juvenile or adult salmon during the warmest summer months. 2.4 Stream temperature and streamflow criteria used for assessing impacts on salmon Water temperature is a key aspect of water quality for salmonids, and excessively high water temperature can act as a limiting factor for the distribution, migration, health and performance of salmonids (e.g. McCullough 1999; Richter and Kolmes 2005; EPA 2007; Farrell et al. 2008). Excessively warm waters can inhibit salmon migration and breeding patterns, and reduce cold-water refugia and connectivity. When average water temperatures are greater than 15◦C salmon can suffer increased predation and competitive disadvantages with native and non-native warm water fish (EPA 2007). Water temperatures exceeding 21–22◦C can prevent migration. Furthe...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> A particular challenge for watershed restoration efforts will be to match projects to both existing and future threats to salmon habitat. Battin et al’s. (2007) study of climate change, restoration options, and their impacts on Snohomish ocean- type chinook salmon noted that most practical restoration actions are aimed at lower elevation floodplains, but that the most severe negative impacts for this stock were found in higher elevation spawning and rearing areas where the hydrologic sensitivity to climate change was greatest. Martin (2006) suggests that thermal refugia will increasingly be limited to the headwater reaches of Northwest streams, while future human population increases and the impacts on land and water use will be concentrated in low-elevation floodplains. He advocates renewed efforts to protect floodplains as migration corridors and to reconnect watersheds to largely protected headwater areas by removing dams and other barriers to upstream fish passage. 6 Research gaps and recommendations for future research This analysis was based on a subset of single stations for streamflow and stream temperatures, yet these stations may not be representative of the complex and v...
+
+## trend_methodology_cd
+
+### Query: "Mann-Kendall Theil-Sen slope linear trend significance"
+
+**`easterling_etal1997`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> R.S.Pickart,Deep-SeaRes.PartA39,1553(1992); meteorologicalInformation,Obninsk,Russia. land area, 17% more than in previous W.M.Smethie,Prog.Oceanogr.31,51(1993). N.Plummer,NationalClimateCenter,BureauofMeteo- studies (3). Most of the increases are in 31. IthankJ.Pedloskyforhisaidintheinterpretationof thesefieldsandP.Rhinesforhiscommentsonthe rology,Melbourne,Australia. the Southern Hemisphere, with the addi- P.Jamason,DynTelInc.,NationalClimaticDataCenter, manuscript.SupportfromNSF(grantOCE-9629489) Asheville,NC28801,USA. tionofdataforSouthAmerica,NewZea- isgratefullyacknowledged. land, all of Australia, a number of Pacific *Towhomcorrespondenceshouldbeaddressed:E-mail: 20February1997;accepted22May1997 deasterl@ncdc.noaa.gov islands, and Indonesia. Data were also in- (cid:122) (cid:122) (cid:122) 364 SCIENCE VOL.277 18JULY1997 www.sciencemag.org 6102 ,03 rebmeceD no /gro.gamecneics.ecneics//:ptth morf dedaolnwoD REPORTS Fig. 1. Time series of annual average maximum temperature, minimum Theheavylineistheresultofsmoothingwithanine-pointbinomialfilter temperature, and DTR for (A) the globe, using all available stations, (B) with reflected ends. Trends (slopes) for the maximum temperat...
+
+**`easterling_etal1997`** (cos_dist=0.356)
+
+> | | | | (cid:50)0.84°C | | | | | Trend(°Cper100years) | | | | | trend in | the DTR | of | | per 100 | | | | | | | | Season | years. This | finding | is | not surprising, | be- | | | | | | | | | ----------- | --------------- | ---- | --------------- | ------------ | --- | ------------ | --- | ------ | ------------ | --- | --- | | | | | | | | Maximumtemp. | | | Minimumtemp. | DTR | | | cause most | of the | data | added | here are for | | | | | | | | | tropical | and subtropical | | regions, | where | | | | Global | | | | temperature changes are not expected to D-J-F 1.10 (1.31) 2.48 (2.76) (cid:50)1.35 ((cid:50)1.37) be as large as in regions of higher latitude M-A-M 1.25 (1.17) 2.26 (2.27) (cid:50)1.04 ((cid:50)1.09) (cid:50)0.65 ((cid:50)0.69) (1), and because of the effects of the J-J-A 0.47 (0.40*) 1.13 (1.12) S-O-N 0.05*((cid:50)0.01*) 0.94 (0.98) (cid:50)0.89 ((cid:50)0.92) | Mount Pinatubo | | eruption. | The | tempera- | | | NorthernHemisphere | | | | | | -------------- | --- | --------- | --- | -------- | --- | --- | ------------------ | --- | --- | --- | --- | tureincreasesforthese25yearsaregreater D-J-F 1.26 (1.52) 2.74 (3.04) (cid:50)1.44 ((cid:50)1.48) 
+
+**`karl_etal1993`** (cos_dist=0.319)
+
+> With-out the transformation,nonnormal residuals result inmultiple linear regression analy-Wi Sp Su"C/100yr *C/100yr °C/100yr‘C/100yritedPRCJapanAu An Wi Sp Su Au An<PEZaQ<>C/100yr "C/100yr"C/100yrOZ 7rereFic. 7, Temperature trends using stations from various population categories (high, medium,low—left to right) as defined in text. Abbreviations; Wi—winter, Sp—spring, Su—summer, Au—autumn, MAX—maximum, MIN—minimum, AVG—average, and RNG—diurnal range.ses, making it more difficult tointerpret the results. Figure 8a indicates that the partialcorrelation coefficients of each variable to the DTR areoften significantly different from the simple linear cor-relation coefficients, making it difficult to speculate onthe effect of changes in any one variable withoutknowing (or assuming constancy) the changes in theother variables. Given the huge sample size, very lowcorrelations have high statistical significance (evenconsidering the day-to-day persistence of the DTR).On a local basis, a generalized multiple linear regres-sion model (one model for all stations and all days)based on the seven climatic variables in Fig. 8aexplains about 55% (53% without the square-roottransformation) of the dai...
+
+**`vincent_etal2018`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Fig. 1 Number of stations that reported trends in (a) temperature and (b) precipitation indices during the 1948–2016 period (blue) and 1900–2016 period (red). The vertical black dashed line indicates the year 2012. ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN iFirst article, 2018, 1–18 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579 La Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie --- Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data / 5 automated systems (Milewska & Vincent, 2016). Because the reduction in the number of stations with precipitation trends is substantial after 2012 (also shown in Mekis et al., 2018), the trends for the precipitation indices were re-computed for the shorter periods 1948–2012 and 1900–2012. The trend calculation followed the methodology presented in Zhang, Vincent, Hogg, and Niitsoo (2000). The estimated magnitude of the trend is based on the slope estimator of Sen (1968), and the statistical significance of the trend is based on the nonparametric Kendall’s τ-test (Kendall, 1955). Because serial correlation is occasionally present in the clima- tological time series, the method also uses an iterative pro- cedure to account for the lag-1 autocorrelation of ...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=0.362)
+
+> ‘‘homogeneous’’regionalclimatesignal.Next,thereference | circulation | likely accounted | | for much | of the | trend differ- | | | | | | | | | ------------- | ---------------- | ------ | -------- | ---------- | ------------- | ---------- | ---------- | ---- | --- | --------- | ------- | ------- | | | | | | | | series was | subtracted | from | the | candidate | series, | and the | | ential during | the period | [e.g., | Dai et | al., 1999; | Przybylak, | | | | | | | | 2000; Braganza et al., 2004]. Changes in land use also resultingdifferenceserieswascheckedforpotentialchange impacted the DTR in some areas [e.g., Balling et al., pointsusingtwo-phaseregressionandtheStandardNormal 1998; Bonan, 2001; Small et al., 2001]. Unfortunately, Homogeneity Test. When both tests found a change point withintwoyearsofoneanother,anadjustmentwasapplied | data constraints | have | historically | | limited | global-scale | | | | | | | | | ---------------- | ------------- | ------------ | ----- | ------- | -------------- | ---------------- | --- | ------- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | to the candidate | | series. | | | | | | analyses | of DTR trends | and | their | causes; | in particular, | ...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=0.349)
+
+> Although striking, the lack of a DTR trend Univ.Press,NewYork. is not without precedent (e.g., there was no trend from Jones,P.D.,andA.Moberg(2003),Hemisphericandlarge-scalesurface airtemperaturevariations:Anextensiverevisionandanupdateto2001, 1958–1976 either). Furthermore, the DTR does exhibit a J. Clim., 16, 206–223. significant decrease ((cid:1)0.032(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1) since 1976, which Jones,P.D.,P.Y.Groisman,M.Coughlin,N.Plummer,W.C.Wang,and Folland et al. [2001] defined as the start of the most recent T. R. Karl (1990), Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land, Nature, 347, 169–172. warming period. On average, trends in maximum and Jung, H.-S., Y. Choi, J.-H. Oh, and G.-H. Lim (2002), Recent trends in minimum temperature are larger in the Northern Hemi- temperature and precipitation over South Korea, Int. J. Climatol., 22, sphere,andbothhemisphereshavemorewarminginwinter 1327–1337. Kruger,A.C.,andS.Shongwe(2004),TemperaturetrendsinSouthAfrica: and spring (Table 2). A DTR increase is evident in the 1960–2003,Int.J.Climatol.,24,1929–1945. Southern Hemisphere winter (mainly in Australia), but all Levinson, D. H., et al. (2005), St...
+
+### Query: "least squares regression decadal warming rate confidence interval"
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=0.358)
+
+> Time interval 2020s Scenario A1B B1 Low 0.43◦C 0.18◦C Avg 1.7◦C 1.2◦C High 3.4◦C 2.4◦C 2040s Low 1.3◦C 0.2◦C Avg 2.7◦C 1.8◦C High 5.1◦C 3.7◦C 2080s Low 2.7◦C 1.3◦C Avg 4.7◦C 2.9˚C High 8.1◦C 5.1◦C The statistically downscaled models represented here and used in our stream temperature modeling are: ccsm3, cgcm3.1 t47, cnrm cm3, echam5, echo g, hadcm, hadgem1 (A1B only), ipsl cm4, miroc 3.2, pcm1 Author's personal copy --- 192 Climatic Change (2010) 102:187–223 Elsner et al. (2010) evaluated the VIC hydrologic model sensitivity to precipitation and temperature change (see their Tables 2 and 3). For example, they analyzed precipitation elasticity, or the fractional change in runoff compared to the fractional change in precipitation, and temperature sensitivities for six locations in the Yakima River basin. A 10% increase in precipitation caused an increase in runoff by a factor of 1.59 for the entire basin. An average daily temperature increase of 1◦C, applied by increasing both minimum and maximum temperature, reduced basin runoff by approximately 2.45% to 5.77%, depending on location. Alternatively, the same average daily increase, by altering maximum temperature only, reduced runof...
+
+**`mantua_etal2010`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> The regression parameter of interest in this study is the α-value, or maximum temperature. The models estimated an α-value within 2◦C of the observed maximum temperature for 78% of the sites in this study. Similar to Mohseni et al. (1998), we found that the regression models more often underestimated the α-value in this study. For sites where seasonal hysteresis was detected and two regressions were applied, the model tended to underestimate fall temperatures and overestimate spring temperatures. We applied the regression model using the estimated parame- ters and the downscaled surface air temperatures for each climate change model (10 models for the A1B scenario and 9 models for the B1 scenario as made available by the IPCC) to estimate average weekly water temperatures for 19 future climate change scenarios at 124 sites. For each scenario, the projected weekly maximum water temperatures were identified for each model and averaged over the models Author's personal copy --- 194 Climatic Change (2010) 102:187–223 into four 30-year intervals: 1970–1999, 2010–2039, 2030–2059, 2070–2099. Sites and time periods where weekly temperatures exceed 21◦C were flagged as indicators for potent...
+
+**`pepin_etal2015`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 T e m p e r a t u r e t r e n d ( ° C p e r d e c a d e ) T e m p e r a t u r e t r e n d ( ° C p e r d e c a d e ) b ) m ( n o i t a v e E l d ) m ( n o i t a v e E l 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Annual TN 1961–2012 30 19 9 18 17 13 11 5 Number of stations DJF TA 1961–2012 30 19 9 18 17 13 11 5 Number of stations 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 T e m p e r a t u r e t r e n d ( ° C p e r d e c a d e ) T e m p e r a t u r e t r e n d ( ° C p e r d e c a d e ) Figure 1 | Elevation-dependent warming over and around the Tibetan Plateau. a, Annual mean surface air temperature (TA) over 3 time periods. b, Annual mean minimum temperature (TN) from 1961–2012. c, Mean autumn (September-November, SON) surface temperature from 1961–2012. d, Mean winter (December–February, DJF) surface temperature from 1961–2012 . Bars represent elevation and trend magnitude is plotted on the y axis according to the 8 elevation ranks of 122 stations. The presentation format is similar to ref. 76 for ease of comparison. Error bars are based on 95% confidence intervals around the mean. The vertical...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Long-term observations in the Rockies are available from NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) cooperative stations. Since the 1980s, temperature observations are also available from the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s (NRCS) Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations that are located between 3000–3500 m elevations and are about 800 m higher relative to the NWS stations. Clow (2010) points out that the observed temperature increases at the SNOTEL sites in the Colorado Rocky Mountains between 1979 and 2006 (~1°C/decade) are substantially greater that those for the entire state of Colorado (0.4°C/decade) which are based on Ray et al. (2008) who only considered the NWS stations. Although Rangwala and Miller (2010) did not find any significant difference in annual warming rates between the SNOTEL and NWS stations within the San Juan Mountains, they did find greater warming rates at NWS sites in winter and at SNOTEL sites in summer. Diaz and Eischeid (2007) used PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Inde- pendent Slopes Model) data to evaluate warming rates at different elevations (1000– 4000 m) in the Colorado Rocky Mountains between 1979 and 2006. PRISM is a 4 km grid-based mapping...
+
+**`rangwala_miller2012`** (cos_dist=0.343)
+
+> There is significant seasonal variability in warming rates on the Plateau. Liu and Chen (2000) found that the warming rate in winter was about twice as large as the annual mean warming rate, a result which is consistent with other studies (Chen et al. 2006b; Liu et al. 2006; You et al. 2007; Rangwala et al. 2009). Autumn has the next highest warming rate, while summer and spring have only recently (since the 1990s) experienced significant increases in warming (Liu et al. 2006; Rangwala et al. 2009). Liu et al. (2006) also examined trends in minimum and maximum temperatures for the 42-year period from 1961 to 2003. They found that minimum temperatures were increasing faster than maximum temperatures in all months, but more so in winter and spring. The absolute increases in the minimum temperature were also highest in winter and spring. Temperature changes in the Tibetan Plateau are similar to those in the northern high latitudes where the warming rate during the last 50 years has also been greater in winter and spring, and smaller in summer (Serreze et al. 2000). Although there is evidence of elevation-dependent warming within the Tibetan Plateau, the sparsity of data at the higher ...
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> (the1950sandtheearly-1970stoearly1980s).From1950– 2004,themaximumtemperaturetrendis0.141(cid:1)Cdec(cid:1)1,the minimumtemperaturetrendis0.204(cid:1)Cdec(cid:1)1,andtheDTR trend is (cid:1)0.066(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1 (all trends computed via least- squares regression). The maximum and minimum trends exceed those in Easterling et al. [1997] by 0.050 and 0.018(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1, respectively, whereas the DTR trend is less Figure 1. Time series of annual maximum temperature, by 0.018(cid:1)C dec(cid:1)1. The larger maximum and minimum minimum temperature, and DTR anomalies for global land trendsaregenerallyconsistentwiththelargepositiveglobal areas over the period 1950–2004. temperature anomalies observed in most years since 1993 [Levinson et al., 2005] while the smaller DTR trend likely increases in minimum temperature as did windy nights for reflects the accelerated rate of warming in the maximum. the period 1950–2004. (Note that the DTR change does not appear to stem from differences in data coverage because the current dataset 3. Methods produces the same DTR trend as in Easterling et al. for the period 1950–1993.) In general, the trends for all variables [7] The climate anomaly me...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=0.355)
+
+> b. Derived climate variables The statistical accuracy for climate variables that are usually calculated from daily data, but estimated from monthly temperature and precipitation data in this study, are shown in Table 1. This represents an independent validation of estimates against weather stations that were not included in model development. We found that the formulas and algorithms for the expanded data cov- erage presented in this paper required only minor ad- justments in parameters for DD , 0, DD . 5, DD , 18, NFFD, and PAS, while new estimation approaches had to be developed for DD . 18, bFFP, eFFP, FFP, and EMT (see appendix). The R2 values for the linear re- lationships between derived and calculated variables were generally very high and MAE values were very low (Table 1). However, it should be kept in mind that this evaluation represents estimates for a long-term 1961–90 period and not for individual years. For DD . 18 and EMT, the nonlinear functions with a single independent variable used in previous work (Wang et al. 2006a) were not able to represent their relationships with any of the primary climate variables. However, using mean temperatures in June, July, August an...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=0.356)
+
+> 24 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 51 (Sinha 1995). The improvement in monthly minimum temperatures is relatively small in terms of variance explained and mean absolute error compared to maxi- mum temperatures (Fig. 3). Improvements were also generally more pronounced over the summer months. This implies weaker environmental lapse rates for mini- mum temperatures and winter temperatures. Presumably, winter temperature inversions and cold air drainage may help moderate the minimum temperatures at higher el- evations relative to those at lower elevations, resulting in weaker environmental lapse rates for those variables. We derive regional lapse rates for individual tem- perature variables directly from surfaces of interpolated temperature data by calculating partial derivatives of climate values as they change along elevation gradients. No weather station records are involved in the deriva- tion of local lapse rates, and therefore our evaluation against station records represents an independent vali- dation of improvements in statistical accuracy. We rec- ommend that lapse-rate-based elevation adjustments should always be used...
+
+### Query: "anomaly relative to baseline reference period climate normal"
+
+**`vose_etal2005`** (cos_dist=0.245)
+
+> comparative lack of data. S-O-N 0.096 0.178 (cid:1)0.085 [8] The climate anomalymethodwas alsousedto devel- op global, hemispheric, and grid-box time series for the SouthernHemisphere satelliteera.Tomaximizespatialcoverage,abaseperiodof Annual 0.102 0.134 (cid:1)0.033 D-J-F 0.086 0.140 (cid:1)0.063 1979–2004 was used instead of 1961–1990 because the M-A-M 0.094 0.131 (cid:1)0.034 latter results in grid-box trend maps that cover 12% less of J-J-A 0.126 0.125 (cid:1)0.009 the land surface. (In general, the two base periods yield S-O-N 0.098 0.139 (cid:1)0.045 comparable results at largespatial scales; for instance, their aValuesinboldarenotsignificantatthe5%level. 2 of 5 19448007, 2005, 23, Downloaded from https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL024379, Wiley Online Library on [05/05/2026]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License 19448007, 2005, 23, Downloaded from https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL024379, Wiley Online Library on [05/05/2026]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibr...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=NA)
+
+> Monthly temperature and precipitation data for 1901– 2002 used in ClimateWNA are based on Mitchell and Jones’s (2005) interpolated historical data at 0.58 3 0.58 resolution [Climatic Research Unit Time Series, version 2.1 (CRU TS 2.1)]. We subtracted the 1961–90 average from the gridded surfaces of individual years and months to recover the original anomaly surfaces (deviations from the 1961–90 normals). The same methodology was used to develop the anomaly surfaces covering western North America for 2003–06 (Mbogga et al. 2009) and up to 2009 (this paper). Temperature was expressed as a difference in degrees Celsius, and the delta surfaces for precipita- tion were calculated as percentage difference from the 1961–90 normal values; for example, 250% represents half of and 200% represents 2 times the normal pre- cipitation value for a particular month. We use climate change projections of the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) multimodel dataset that represents Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (Solomon et al. 2007). Three emission sce- narios (A1B, A2, and B1) w...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=0.246)
+
+> 22 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 51 FIG. 3. Reduction in (top) variance unexplained and (bottom) mean absolute errors for (left to right) monthly maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin), and average (Tave) air temperatures, and monthly total precipitation (Prec). The gray plus black bars represent the accuracy of the 2.5 arc min–resolution baseline data (PRISM). The black bars represent estimates from ClimateWNA, and gray indicates the improvement. Eref to be overestimated in winter and spring and un- derestimated in late summer and autumn because the annual temperature does not fully follow annual trends in solar radiation and humidity (cf. Donohue et al. 2010). For the 1961–90 normals, the standard errors for EHar and CMD were 31 and 26 mm, respectively, when compared with calculations from the Penman–Monteith equation. Under the large climate warming scenario the annual Eref had a standard error of 50 mm with a 12-mm underestimate bias, while values for the CMD were 46 and 23 mm, respectively. c. Historical and future periods The delta approach we use to add low- or medium- resolution anomalies to high-resolution climate baseline...
+
+**`wang_etal2012`** (cos_dist=0.216)
+
+> a resolution of 0.58) are replaced with the spatially more accurate interpolated and lapse-rate-adjusted baseline data, the amount of error associated with their baseline data is expected to be reduced, which is relatively large and more difficult to model than with anomalies (Mbogga et al. 2009; Mitchell and Jones 2005). Although we did not carry out an explicit comparison in this paper, Mbogga et al. (2009) have previously shown that this improves the statistical accuracy of historical data. As- sessment of annual variables for individual years in this paper as well as the previous study (Mbogga et al. 2009) showed that prediction accuracy is high for temperatures, except for the first third of the twentieth century. However, precipitation variables showed considerable variation in statistical precision among individual years. Predic- tions for longer periods (5, 10, and 30 years) are expected to be more reliable than those for individual years where stochasticity in weather conditions plays a much greater role. To implement the delta approach, we chose the 1961– 90 normals as a common reference period because this time interval corresponds to the period with the most extensive wea...
+
diff --git a/planning/archive/2026-05-issue-53-snow-lit-review/README.md b/planning/archive/2026-05-issue-53-snow-lit-review/README.md
index 3d30551..735f4ba 100644
--- a/planning/archive/2026-05-issue-53-snow-lit-review/README.md
+++ b/planning/archive/2026-05-issue-53-snow-lit-review/README.md
@@ -50,12 +50,14 @@ copy-paste exercise rather than a literature search.
 1. Download the 11 PDFs from Zotero Web API to
    `data/rag/snow_methodology_pdfs/` (one file per citation
    key, naming `{citationKey}.pdf`). The `attachKey` for each
-   paper is hardcoded in `scripts/rag_build_snow_methodology.R`.
+   paper is hardcoded in `scripts/rag_snow_methodology_build.R`
+   (renamed from `rag_build_snow_methodology.R` in #58 to match
+   the `noun_verb` convention).
 2. `ollama serve` + `ollama pull nomic-embed-text` (one-time).
-3. `Rscript scripts/rag_build_snow_methodology.R` — ~80 s,
+3. `Rscript scripts/rag_snow_methodology_build.R` — ~80 s,
    produces 1006 chunks across 11 sources.
 
-To re-mine: `Rscript scripts/rag_query_snow_methodology.R` →
+To re-mine: `Rscript scripts/rag_snow_methodology_query.R` →
 regenerates `snow_methodology_quotes.md` (raw retrieval, archived
 here at the time of merge).
 
diff --git a/scripts/rag_build_departure_framing.R b/scripts/rag_departure_framing_build.R
similarity index 96%
rename from scripts/rag_build_departure_framing.R
rename to scripts/rag_departure_framing_build.R
index c1bb8f9..f143034 100644
--- a/scripts/rag_build_departure_framing.R
+++ b/scripts/rag_departure_framing_build.R
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env Rscript
 #
-# rag_build_departure_framing.R
+# rag_departure_framing_build.R
 #
 # Build a ragnar DuckDB store from Zotero PDFs for researching how climate
 # departure studies frame baseline comparisons and communicate cumulative change.
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@
 #   - Zotero with PDFs attached to references
 #
 # Usage:
-#   Rscript scripts/rag_build_departure_framing.R
+#   Rscript scripts/rag_departure_framing_build.R
 #
 # Output:
 #   data/rag/departure_framing.duckdb   (gitignored)
diff --git a/scripts/rag_build_snow_methodology.R b/scripts/rag_snow_methodology_build.R
similarity index 96%
rename from scripts/rag_build_snow_methodology.R
rename to scripts/rag_snow_methodology_build.R
index da30718..5dc207f 100644
--- a/scripts/rag_build_snow_methodology.R
+++ b/scripts/rag_snow_methodology_build.R
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env Rscript
 #
-# rag_build_snow_methodology.R
+# rag_snow_methodology_build.R
 #
 # Build a ragnar DuckDB store from Zotero PDFs for researching
 # snowpack-departure methodology — the citation backbone for #48
@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@
 #     Zotero desktop "download files at sync time" being enabled.
 #
 # Usage:
-#   Rscript scripts/rag_build_snow_methodology.R
+#   Rscript scripts/rag_snow_methodology_build.R
 #
 # Output:
 #   data/rag/snow_methodology.duckdb   (gitignored)
@@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ pdf_dir    <- here::here("data", "rag", "snow_methodology_pdfs")
 store_path <- here::here("data", "rag", "snow_methodology.duckdb")
 
 # Citation labels follow the BBT firstauthor[_etal]year convention used in
-# rag_build_departure_framing.R. The Zotero attachKey is documented for
+# rag_departure_framing_build.R. The Zotero attachKey is documented for
 # downstream auditing; the script reads PDFs by `<label>.pdf` filename out
 # of pdf_dir.
 pdf_specs <- list(
diff --git a/scripts/rag_query_snow_methodology.R b/scripts/rag_snow_methodology_query.R
similarity index 97%
rename from scripts/rag_query_snow_methodology.R
rename to scripts/rag_snow_methodology_query.R
index 4905fcc..48e986c 100644
--- a/scripts/rag_query_snow_methodology.R
+++ b/scripts/rag_snow_methodology_query.R
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env Rscript
 #
-# rag_query_snow_methodology.R
+# rag_snow_methodology_query.R
 #
 # Mine the snow_methodology.duckdb store for methodology quotes
 # indexed by #48 metric. Outputs findings/snow_methodology_quotes.md
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
 #
 # Filed against #53 — feeds #48 Phase 5 vignette interp.
 #
-# Usage: Rscript scripts/rag_query_snow_methodology.R
+# Usage: Rscript scripts/rag_snow_methodology_query.R
 #
 # Output: planning/active/snow_methodology_quotes.md
 
diff --git a/scripts/rag_temp_methodology_build.R b/scripts/rag_temp_methodology_build.R
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..24c5a05
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/rag_temp_methodology_build.R
@@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env Rscript
+#
+# rag_temp_methodology_build.R
+#
+# Build a ragnar DuckDB store from Zotero PDFs for researching
+# temperature-departure methodology — the citation backbone for the
+# vignette interpretation paragraphs that currently make claims
+# about warming trends, day-night asymmetry, and salmonid thermal
+# stress with zero peer-reviewed citations.
+#
+# Mines for:
+#   - DTR / day-night asymmetry methodology (Karl 1993, Easterling 1997, Vose 2005)
+#   - Tmax vs tmin trends globally (Easterling 1997, Vose 2005)
+#   - Canadian / BC temperature trends (Vincent 2018)
+#   - BC-specific climate downscaling (Wang 2012 ClimateWNA)
+#   - Elevation-dependent warming (Pepin 2015, Rangwala & Miller 2012)
+#   - Climate -> stream-temperature bridge (Mantua 2010)
+#   - Salmonid thermal envelope (Eaton & Scheller 1996, Richter & Kolmes 2005)
+#
+# Filed against #58 (Issue 1 of the climate-departure 3-split lit reviews).
+#
+# Prerequisites:
+#   - R packages: ragnar, DBI
+#   - Ollama running with nomic-embed-text model:
+#       ollama serve
+#       ollama pull nomic-embed-text
+#   - PDFs in data/rag/temp_methodology_pdfs/ (gitignored, populated
+#     by user RG downloads + curl + OCR — see planning archive for the
+#     per-paper recipe). Web-API download avoids the dependency on
+#     Zotero desktop "download files at sync time" being enabled.
+#
+# Usage:
+#   Rscript scripts/rag_temp_methodology_build.R
+#
+# Output:
+#   data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb   (gitignored)
+
+library(ragnar)
+
+# --- Configuration ---
+pdf_dir    <- here::here("data", "rag", "temp_methodology_pdfs")
+store_path <- here::here("data", "rag", "temp_methodology.duckdb")
+
+# Local labels follow the firstauthor[_etal]year convention. The actual
+# Zotero BBT citation keys (auto-derived per NGE convention) get captured
+# in planning/active/findings.md once Zotero desktop is restarted to
+# trigger BBT key generation for the Web-API-created items. The Zotero
+# attachKey is documented for downstream auditing; the script reads PDFs
+# by `<label>.pdf` filename out of pdf_dir.
+pdf_specs <- list(
+  list(label = "karl_etal1993",        attach = "X2UMWNUB", note = "Asymmetric trends DTR (BAMS)"),
+  list(label = "easterling_etal1997",  attach = "MI3CH39H", note = "Tmax vs tmin globe (Science)"),
+  list(label = "vose_etal2005",        attach = "SIAFNGKV", note = "DTR update through 2004 (GRL)"),
+  list(label = "vincent_etal2018",     attach = "P7QHP3BJ", note = "Canada climate trends (Atmos-Ocean)"),
+  list(label = "pepin_etal2015",       attach = "UJVF9IFP", note = "Elevation-dependent warming (Nat Clim Chg)"),
+  list(label = "rangwala_miller2012",  attach = "GR9S4I3F", note = "Mountain climate review (Clim Change)"),
+  list(label = "wang_etal2012",        attach = "5V7E4CWX", note = "ClimateWNA BC downscaling (JAMC)"),
+  list(label = "mantua_etal2010",      attach = "E5DWJAGA", note = "Climate-fish bridge PNW (Clim Change)"),
+  list(label = "eaton_scheller1996",   attach = "72R34DQB", note = "Fish thermal habitat (L&O)"),
+  list(label = "richter_kolmes2005",   attach = "RTU4TMRG", note = "Salmonid thermal limits PNW (Rev Fish Sci)")
+)
+
+# --- Find PDFs ---
+pdf_paths <- character()
+missing <- character()
+for (spec in pdf_specs) {
+  path <- file.path(pdf_dir, paste0(spec$label, ".pdf"))
+  if (file.exists(path)) {
+    pdf_paths <- c(pdf_paths, path)
+  } else {
+    missing <- c(missing, spec$label)
+  }
+}
+
+if (length(missing) > 0) {
+  message("MISSING PDFs in ", pdf_dir, ":")
+  for (m in missing) message("  ", m)
+  message("Run the user-provided RG-download recipe (see archive) to populate.")
+}
+message("Found ", length(pdf_paths), " / ", length(pdf_specs), " PDFs")
+
+if (length(pdf_paths) == 0) {
+  stop("No PDFs found in ", pdf_dir)
+}
+
+# --- Build store ---
+fs::dir_create(dirname(store_path))
+
+if (file.exists(store_path)) {
+  file.remove(store_path)
+  wal <- paste0(store_path, ".wal")
+  if (file.exists(wal)) file.remove(wal)
+}
+
+store <- ragnar_store_create(
+  location = store_path,
+  embed = embed_ollama(model = "nomic-embed-text"),
+  overwrite = TRUE
+)
+
+message("Ingesting ", length(pdf_paths), " PDFs into ", store_path)
+ragnar_store_ingest(store, pdf_paths, progress = TRUE)
+
+# --- Verify ---
+n_chunks  <- DBI::dbGetQuery(store@con, "SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM chunks")$n
+n_origins <- DBI::dbGetQuery(store@con, "SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT origin) AS n FROM chunks")$n
+
+DBI::dbDisconnect(store@con)
+
+message("\nStore built: ", store_path)
+message("Chunks: ", n_chunks)
+message("Sources: ", n_origins)
diff --git a/scripts/rag_temp_methodology_query.R b/scripts/rag_temp_methodology_query.R
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b5f04ae
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/rag_temp_methodology_query.R
@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env Rscript
+#
+# rag_temp_methodology_query.R
+#
+# Mine the temp_methodology.duckdb store for methodology quotes
+# indexed by topic. Outputs planning/active/temp_methodology_quotes.md
+# with the top-k chunks per query.
+#
+# Filed against #58 — feeds the temperature interpretation paragraphs
+# in vignettes/peace-fwcp.Rmd and vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd
+# (downstream branch consumes the cite-this-for-that map from the
+# Phase 5 findings.md).
+#
+# Usage: Rscript scripts/rag_temp_methodology_query.R
+#
+# Output: planning/active/temp_methodology_quotes.md
+
+library(ragnar)
+
+store_path <- here::here("data", "rag", "temp_methodology.duckdb")
+out_path   <- here::here("planning", "active", "temp_methodology_quotes.md")
+
+stopifnot(file.exists(store_path))
+
+# Connect to the existing store
+store <- ragnar_store_connect(store_path)
+
+# Queries grouped by topic. Each query gets top-5 chunks. Coverage
+# matrix in findings.md maps each topic to its primary citation key(s).
+queries <- list(
+  dtr_asymmetry = c(
+    "diurnal temperature range minimum maximum asymmetric trends methodology",
+    "minimum temperature warming faster than maximum nighttime daytime",
+    "DTR decrease causes cloud cover soil moisture aerosols"
+  ),
+  tmax_tmin_globe = c(
+    "global maximum minimum temperature trends globe land area",
+    "Tmax versus Tmin per decade rate hemispheric asymmetry",
+    "narrowing of diurnal temperature range globally"
+  ),
+  canadian_bc_trends = c(
+    "Canada temperature trends 1948 to 2016 indices warming",
+    "British Columbia annual temperature change observed warming",
+    "homogenized Canadian climate data adjustment methodology"
+  ),
+  bc_downscaling = c(
+    "ClimateWNA western North America historical temperature downscaling",
+    "PRISM gridded climate normals temperature lapse rate elevation",
+    "high resolution spatial climate baseline anomaly"
+  ),
+  elevation_dependent_warming = c(
+    "elevation dependent warming mountain regions amplification",
+    "high altitude greater warming snow albedo feedback",
+    "lapse rate change warming mountain valley contrast"
+  ),
+  climate_stream_temp_bridge = c(
+    "air temperature stream temperature relationship summer maximum",
+    "salmon habitat thermal stress climate change Pacific Northwest",
+    "summertime stream temperature warming impact freshwater fish"
+  ),
+  salmonid_thermal_envelope = c(
+    "chinook coho steelhead maximum temperature limits thermal tolerance",
+    "salmonid critical lethal temperature threshold thermal stress",
+    "cold water refugia thermal habitat fish temperature criteria"
+  ),
+  trend_methodology_cd = c(
+    "Mann-Kendall Theil-Sen slope linear trend significance",
+    "least squares regression decadal warming rate confidence interval",
+    "anomaly relative to baseline reference period climate normal"
+  )
+)
+
+# --- Run all queries, capture top-5 each ---
+top_k <- 5
+
+cat("Querying", length(unlist(queries)), "queries (top", top_k, "chunks each)...\n")
+
+# Connection metadata
+n_chunks  <- DBI::dbGetQuery(store@con, "SELECT COUNT(*) AS n FROM chunks")$n
+n_origins <- DBI::dbGetQuery(store@con, "SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT origin) AS n FROM chunks")$n
+
+# Build the markdown output
+md <- c(
+  "# Temperature methodology — RAG retrieval results",
+  "",
+  paste0("Generated: ", format(Sys.time(), "%Y-%m-%d %H:%M:%S")),
+  paste0("Store: ", store_path, " (", n_chunks, " chunks, ", n_origins, " sources)"),
+  "",
+  "Each section contains top-5 chunks (cosine similarity) for the",
+  "queries below. Use these to extract exact-page quotes for the",
+  "vignette temperature interp paragraphs (downstream consumer branch).",
+  ""
+)
+
+format_chunk <- function(row) {
+  origin <- gsub(".*/(.+)\\.pdf$", "\\1", row$origin)
+  text <- gsub("\\s+", " ", row$text)
+  if (nchar(text) > 1200) text <- paste0(substr(text, 1, 1200), "...")
+  # cosine_distance is a list-col with one numeric per row
+  cd <- row$cosine_distance
+  if (is.list(cd)) cd <- cd[[1]]
+  cd_str <- if (length(cd) >= 1 && is.numeric(cd)) sprintf("%.3f", cd[1]) else "?"
+  c(
+    paste0("**`", origin, "`** (cos_dist=", cd_str, ")"),
+    "",
+    paste0("> ", text),
+    ""
+  )
+}
+
+for (topic in names(queries)) {
+  md <- c(md, paste0("## ", topic), "")
+  for (q in queries[[topic]]) {
+    md <- c(md, paste0("### Query: \"", q, "\""), "")
+    res <- tryCatch(
+      ragnar_retrieve(store, q, top_k = top_k),
+      error = function(e) {
+        cat("  ERROR for query '", q, "': ", conditionMessage(e), "\n", sep = "")
+        NULL
+      }
+    )
+    if (is.null(res) || nrow(res) == 0) {
+      md <- c(md, "_no chunks returned_", "")
+      next
+    }
+    for (i in seq_len(nrow(res))) {
+      md <- c(md, format_chunk(res[i, ]))
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+DBI::dbDisconnect(store@con)
+writeLines(md, out_path)
+cat("\nWrote: ", out_path, "\n")
+cat("Total queries: ", length(unlist(queries)), "\n")