From d2aacd7c80281ee78cc8463735737fe8dd8c6ba7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: almac2022 Date: Tue, 5 May 2026 15:30:09 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 1/5] Initialize PWF baseline for #65 (kootenay vignette wire-up) --- planning/active/findings.md | 71 ++++++++++++++++++++++ planning/active/progress.md | 28 +++++++++ planning/active/task_plan.md | 114 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 3 files changed, 213 insertions(+) create mode 100644 planning/active/findings.md create mode 100644 planning/active/progress.md create mode 100644 planning/active/task_plan.md diff --git a/planning/active/findings.md b/planning/active/findings.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cd38d35 --- /dev/null +++ b/planning/active/findings.md @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +# Findings — Wire up kootenay-lake.Rmd citations (#65) + +## Issue context (verbatim from #65) + +The `kootenay-lake.Rmd` vignette interpretation paragraphs make +claims about temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and drying that +currently land on zero peer-reviewed citations in the non-snow +sections. The 3-split climate-departure lit reviews built the +citation backbone specifically for this consumer; time to wire it +up. + +## Pre-work read of `kootenay-lake.Rmd` + +1031-line vignette. Section structure: +- L50 Area of Interest +- L127 Connect to the Data Catalog +- L154 Extract Climate Time Series +- L182 Trends +- L240 Daytime Highs and Overnight Lows +- L296 Snowpack (heavily cited from #54 — 14 `[@key]` markers in + this + per-ecoregion + interp-snow paragraphs) +- L512 Recent vs Pre-warming +- L576 Spatial Pattern +- L627 Per-Ecoregion Variation +- L879 Watershed Groups Across Ecoregions +- L959 Interpretation +- L1031 References + +Existing `[@key]` markers (14): all in Snowpack section + Per- +Ecoregion-Snow + Interpretation-snow. **Non-snow sections have +zero cites.** + +## Pre-work concern flagged (out of scope, separate follow-up) + +3 FWCP Peace cross-references slipped back in despite the v0.2.1 +scrub: +- L528: "and unlike the FWCP Peace just to the north..." +- L973: "diverges sharpest from the FWCP Peace just north..." +- L996: "diverge from the FWCP Peace pattern..." + +Per `feedback_thorough_cross_reference_removal.md` memory, these +shouldn't be in a stand-alone vignette. **Out of scope for #65** +(citation wire-up only) — flagged here for the user to call as a +separate follow-up issue. + +(The Fraser Basin reference at L1024-1025 is fine — different +region used as a literature anchor for freshet timing, not a +cross-ref to the sibling Peace vignette.) + +## Source corpus + +Pulling `[@key]` markers from the 4 cite-this-for-that maps: +- `planning/archive/2026-05-issue-53-snow-lit-review/findings.md` +- `planning/archive/2026-05-issue-58-temperature-lit-review/findings.md` +- `planning/archive/2026-05-issue-61-precip-drying-lit-review/findings.md` +- `planning/archive/2026-05-issue-63-interpretation-framing-lit-review/findings.md` + +For each candidate insertion, the audit log +(`planning/active/citation_audit.md`) tracks: vignette excerpt, +source quote/paraphrase, rag store + topic, my paraphrase as +written, why warranted. + +## Plan-mode insertion candidates + +7 high-value insertions identified in Phase 0 read (table in +task_plan.md). Will refine/cull during Phase 1 audit-log build +and Phase 3 review-agent feedback. + +## Citation audit log + +See `planning/active/citation_audit.md` (built during Phase 1). diff --git a/planning/active/progress.md b/planning/active/progress.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f36404b --- /dev/null +++ b/planning/active/progress.md @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +# Progress — Wire up kootenay-lake.Rmd citations (#65) + +## Session 2026-05-05 + +- Closed #63 (interpretation framing lit review): PR #64 merged, + v0.2.4 released, planning files archived. **3-split complete.** +- Filed #65 (kootenay vignette citation wire-up — first downstream + consumer of the 3-split + snow lit-review citation backbone) +- Created branch `65-kootenay-vignette-wireup` off main +- Phase 0 read of `kootenay-lake.Rmd` complete: + - 14 existing `[@key]` markers, all in Snowpack + per-eco-snow + + interp-snow (inherited from #54) + - Non-snow sections (Trends, Daytime/Overnight, Recent vs Pre- + warming, Spatial Pattern, Per-Ecoregion, WSGs, Interpretation) + have zero cites — main wire-up target + - Identified 7 high-value candidate insertions (task_plan + candidate table) +- **Concern surfaced (out of scope for #65, flagged for user + call):** 3 FWCP Peace cross-references at lines 528, 973, 996 + slipped back in despite v0.2.1 scrub. Per memory, these + shouldn't be in a stand-alone vignette. Recommend a separate + small follow-up issue / commit — won't expand scope here +- Scaffolded PWF baseline mirroring earlier issues' structure but + with consumer-side phases (audit log, agent review, render + check) +- Next: Phase 1 — build citation_audit.md with one row per + proposed `[@key]` insertion (vignette excerpt, source quote, + rag store, my paraphrase, justification) diff --git a/planning/active/task_plan.md b/planning/active/task_plan.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fba73cc --- /dev/null +++ b/planning/active/task_plan.md @@ -0,0 +1,114 @@ +# Task: Wire up kootenay-lake.Rmd interpretation citations from 3-split lit reviews (#65) + +## Problem + +The `kootenay-lake.Rmd` vignette interpretation paragraphs make +claims about temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and drying that +currently land on **zero** peer-reviewed citations in the non-snow +sections. The 3-split climate-departure lit reviews (#53/v0.1.7, +#58/v0.2.2, #61/v0.2.3, #63/v0.2.4) built the citation backbone +specifically for this consumer; time to wire it up. + +## Scope + +`kootenay-lake.Rmd` only. Peace-FWCP wire-up = separate downstream +issue. Per `feedback_vignette_citations_sparse.md` memory: cite +sparingly, only where finding is visible in graphs/tables, plain +language, no decoration. + +## Pre-work findings (Phase 0 — already complete in this session) + +Read the vignette end-to-end. Existing citations (~14) all in the +Snowpack + Per-Ecoregion-Snow + Interpretation-snow sections, +inherited from #54. **Non-snow sections have zero `[@key]` markers** +but several prose-style author refs ready to convert. + +**Identified candidate insertions (7 total — sparsely applied):** + +| # | Vignette location | Proposed `[@key]` | Why warranted | +|---|---|---|---| +| 1 | Line 184 ("pre-warming reference period 1951–1980") | `@hansen_etal2012Perceptionclimate` | Hansen 12 uses identical 1951–1980 base period — strongest direct precedent for cd's choice | +| 2 | Line 195–196 (WMO climate normal mention) | `@arguez_vose2011DefinitionStandard` | Defines what makes a "WMO climate normal" — grounds cd's "alternative normal" choice | +| 3 | Line 246 (existing "Karl et al. 1993" prose) | `@karl_etal1993NewPerspective` | Convert prose ref to proper cite — DTR asymmetry foundational | +| 4 | Line 581–587 (Spatial Pattern, "high-elevation amplification signal") | `@pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming`, `@rangwala_miller2012Climatechange` | EDW review papers — directly visible in spatial pattern map (Figure) showing elevation-correlated warming | +| 5 | Line 984–994 (Interpretation: "atmosphere is drying", VPD up) | `@ficklin_novick2017Historicprojected` | VPD continental-scale drying — exact match to the vignette's "double-dipping" finding (Δ% in cmp_combined table shows VPD up) | +| 6 | Line 1012–1018 (Interpretation: stream temp + salmon thermal stress) | `@mantua_etal2010Climatechange`, `@eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate` | Climate→stream-temp bridge — load-bearing for FWCP fish-passage planner audience; visible in summer-Tmax warming (Trends) | +| 7 | Line 1025 (existing "Kang et al. 2016" prose for Fraser freshet) | `@kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly` | Convert prose ref to proper cite | + +## Phase 1 — Build audit log + +- [ ] Create `planning/active/citation_audit.md` with one row per + `[@key]` insertion: vignette excerpt, source quote/paraphrase, + rag store + topic where retrieved, my paraphrase as written, + why warranted + +## Phase 2 — Insert citations into vignette + +- [ ] Edit `kootenay-lake.Rmd` for the 7 insertions above. Use + `[@key]` for parenthetical and `@key` (or `@key [-@key]`) for + narrative form per pandoc citeproc convention. +- [ ] Spell out acronyms on first use: DTR, EDW, FWCP, IPCC, WMO + (most already spelled out — verify) +- [ ] Smooth prose where the citation reads awkwardly + +## Phase 3 — Independent review agent + +- [ ] Spawn an Explore subagent with: the audit log, the 4 ragnar + stores under `data/rag/`, source PDFs in + `data/rag/_methodology_pdfs/`. Task: verify each + paraphrase in the audit log is faithful to the source quote, + flag any drift / overreach / unsupported claims / BS. +- [ ] Address agent feedback in vignette + audit log + +## Phase 4 — Render check + +- [ ] Local pkgdown render of the kootenay-lake vignette to confirm: + (a) all `[@key]` markers resolve via rbbt::bbt_write_bib, + (b) References section auto-populates correctly, + (c) no formatting regression in the surrounding prose + +## Phase 5 — PR + release + +- [ ] `/code-check` clean before commit (lint + tests — though + vignette-only changes shouldn't affect either) +- [ ] Atomic commits — Phase 1 audit, Phase 2 vignette edits, + Phase 3 agent review fixes +- [ ] PR with `Fixes #65`. SRED tag in PR body +- [ ] After merge: `/planning-archive` → bump v0.2.4 → v0.2.5 + +## Validation + +- [ ] 7 (±2 after agent review) `[@key]` markers added to + kootenay-lake.Rmd +- [ ] Audit log has one row per cite with the 5 fields filled in +- [ ] Review agent has signed off (or flagged issues addressed) +- [ ] Vignette renders cleanly with all cites resolving +- [ ] Non-snow sections now have authoritative backing for the + load-bearing claims (warming, EDW, VPD/drying, climate-fish + bridge) +- [ ] Snowpack section citations untouched (already wired in #54) +- [ ] No vignette section restructuring; only `[@key]` additions + + minor prose smoothing + +## Out of scope + +- **`peace-fwcp.Rmd` wire-up** — separate downstream issue +- **New lit reviews** — 3-split + snow are the source corpus +- **Vignette section restructuring** +- **FWCP Peace cross-references in lines 528, 973, 996** — + surfaced during pre-work read; per + `feedback_thorough_cross_reference_removal.md` memory these + shouldn't be in a stand-alone vignette, but **flagging as + separate concern** rather than expanding scope on this branch. + Will note in progress.md as a separate follow-up. +- **Updating `vignettes/references.bib` content beyond what + rbbt::bbt_write_bib regenerates** — automatic at render time + +## Notes for execution + +- Branch: `65-kootenay-vignette-wireup` +- Citation key resolution: rbbt::bbt_write_bib at render time pulls + from the live Zotero library, so any new BBT keys we use (which + all came from #58/#61/#63 lit reviews) auto-resolve into + references.bib +- BBT 9.x active; no compat issues expected From d89a79031e693cf87f42e7bafb4863173a48ba2d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: almac2022 Date: Tue, 5 May 2026 15:32:09 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 2/5] Phase 1: citation audit log for #65 (7 proposed insertions) --- planning/active/citation_audit.md | 295 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 295 insertions(+) create mode 100644 planning/active/citation_audit.md diff --git a/planning/active/citation_audit.md b/planning/active/citation_audit.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..472ce88 --- /dev/null +++ b/planning/active/citation_audit.md @@ -0,0 +1,295 @@ +# Citation Audit — kootenay-lake.Rmd wire-up (#65) + +One row per `[@key]` insertion proposed for `kootenay-lake.Rmd`. +This is the "what is where by who said what where" trail. + +For each row: +- **Vignette excerpt** — the prose where the cite lands (with line ref) +- **Source quote / paraphrase** — the load-bearing quote from the cited paper +- **Rag store / topic** — where the quote was retrieved during lit-review mining +- **Paraphrase as written** — how the cite appears in the vignette +- **Why warranted** — what visible-in-vignette finding supports this cite + +The independent review agent (Phase 3) reads this audit + verifies +each paraphrase against the source. + +--- + +## 1. Hansen 2012 — 1951–1980 baseline (Trends section, L184) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "Anomalies are computed against a +pre-warming reference period — 1951–1980, the three decades before +climate change accelerated. Saying a year is '+1.5 °C' means it was +1.5 °C warmer than the average year between 1951 and 1980." + +**Source quote (from #63 archive findings.md, topic +`cumulative_impact_loaded_dice`):** +> "3-sigma extreme outliers, which covered much less than 1% of +> Earth's surface during the 1951–1980 base period, now typically +> cover about 10% of the land area." — Hansen et al. 2012, PNAS + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/interpretation_framing.duckdb` / +`cumulative_impact_loaded_dice` + +**Paraphrase as written (proposed):** "Anomalies are computed against +a pre-warming reference period — 1951–1980, the three decades before +climate change accelerated. This is the same base period +@hansen_etal2012Perceptionclimate use to detect the emergence of +3-sigma summer-temperature outliers globally..." + +**Why warranted:** vignette explicitly justifies the 1951–1980 +choice; Hansen et al. 2012 is the strongest direct precedent (same +window, cumulative-impact framing). Visible in **all anomaly plots** +(every figure relative to the 1951–1980 baseline). Non-decorative — +load-bearing for the methodology choice. + +--- + +## 2. Arguez & Vose 2011 — WMO climate normal definition (Trends, L195–199) + +**Vignette excerpt:** "1981–present (45 years) — starts at the +beginning of the World Meteorological Organization's most recent +30-year 'climate normal' (1981–2010). This is the reference period +used in most published climate products, so it makes results easy +to compare against Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change +reports and government climate summaries." + +**Source quote (from #63 archive findings.md, topic +`baseline_window_methodology`):** +> "We propose that any potential alternative climate normal is the +> result of changing one or more of these five attributes... +> [WMO normals are] more useful as a comparison metric than as a +> predictor of expected future conditions in a changing climate." +> — Arguez & Vose 2011, BAMS + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/interpretation_framing.duckdb` / +`baseline_window_methodology` + +**Paraphrase as written (proposed):** "1981–present (45 years) — +starts at the beginning of the World Meteorological Organization's +most recent 30-year 'climate normal' (1981–2010) +[@arguez_vose2011DefinitionStandard]." + +**Why warranted:** vignette explicitly references the WMO standard; +Arguez & Vose 2011 is the canonical citation for that definition. +Visible in **the second slope row of the Trends table** (1981-start +trend window). One-cite, one-claim — minimal decoration. + +--- + +## 3. Karl 1993 — DTR asymmetry (Daytime/Overnight Lows, L246) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "Overnight minimums warming faster +than daytime maximums — the 'day-night asymmetry' — is one of the +textbook fingerprints of greenhouse warming (Karl et al. 1993)." + +**Source quote (from #58 archive findings.md, topic +`dtr_asymmetry`):** +> "the rise of the minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three +> times that of the maximum temperature during the period 1951-90 +> (0.84°C versus 0.28°C). The decrease of the diurnal temperature +> range is approximately equal to the increase of mean temperature. +> The asymmetry is detectable in all seasons and in most of the +> regions studied." — Karl et al. 1993, BAMS + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` / +`dtr_asymmetry` + +**Paraphrase as written (proposed):** convert prose-style "(Karl et +al. 1993)" → "[@karl_etal1993NewPerspective]" + +**Why warranted:** vignette already names Karl et al. 1993 in prose +— this just promotes it to a proper citation. DTR figure +(`plot-dtr` chunk, Fig caption mentions "the textbook day-night +asymmetry shows up here") visualizes the exact effect Karl 1993 +documented. Direct match. + +--- + +## 4. Pepin 2015 + Rangwala & Miller 2012 — elevation-dependent warming (Spatial Pattern, L581–587) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "Warming is not spatially uniform +across the region. Total departures range from about +1.2 °C at +the lowest-warming pixels to +2.2 °C at the highest, with a +regional mean near +1.7 °C. Higher-elevation pixels tend to show +stronger warming — the high-elevation amplification signal that +shows up consistently at mid-latitude mountain sites — but the +gradient is mixed enough that no single axis (north-south or +east-west) carries the full pattern." + +**Source quotes (from #58 archive findings.md, topic +`elevation_dependent_warming`):** +> "growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with +> elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more +> rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower +> elevations. Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) can accelerate the +> rate of change in mountain ecosystems, cryospheric systems, +> hydrological regimes and biodiversity." — Pepin et al. 2015, +> Nature Climate Change + +> "it is still uncertain whether mountainous regions generally are +> warming at a different rate than the rest of the global land +> surface, or whether elevation-based sensitivities in warming +> rates are prevalent within mountains." — Rangwala & Miller 2012, +> Climatic Change + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` / +`elevation_dependent_warming` + +**Paraphrase as written (proposed):** "Higher-elevation pixels tend +to show stronger warming — consistent with the elevation-dependent +warming (EDW) signal documented at mid-latitude mountain sites +[@pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming], though the regional +evidence base is heterogeneous and not every mountain region shows +the same pattern [@rangwala_miller2012Climatechange]..." + +**Why warranted:** spatial-pattern map (Figure under L597-625) +visibly shows elevation-correlated departure values. Vignette's +existing prose introduces "high-elevation amplification" — needs +the EDW reference. Pepin 2015 = primary, Rangwala & Miller 2012 = +caveat (the heterogeneity acknowledgment matters because the +vignette itself notes "the gradient is mixed enough"). Two cites, +one for the affirmation + one for the caveat — non-decorative. + +--- + +## 5. Ficklin & Novick 2017 — VPD continental drying (Interpretation, L984–994) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "The atmosphere is drying. Vapour +pressure deficit — the gap between how much water the air could +hold and how much it actually does — is up significantly across +the region. Combined with declining precipitation, this is a +'double-dipping' signal: less water arriving as precipitation, +*and* warmer air pulling more water out of soil and vegetation +through evapotranspiration." + +**Source quote (from #61 archive findings.md, topic +`vpd_drying_continental`):** +> "spring, summer, and fall seasons exhibited the largest areal +> extent of significant increases in VPD, which was largely +> concentrated in the western and southern portions of the U.S. +> Significant increases in VPD have been caused by air temperature +> increases and relative humidity changes, especially during the +> summer season in the southern portion of the U.S., over the +> historical time period." — Ficklin & Novick 2017, JGR + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/precip_drying_methodology.duckdb` / +`vpd_drying_continental` + +**Paraphrase as written (proposed):** "Vapour pressure deficit — +the gap between how much water the air could hold and how much it +actually does — is up significantly across the region, mirroring +the continental-scale drying that @ficklin_novick2017Historicprojected +documented across the western United States, driven by combined +air-temperature increases and relative-humidity declines." + +**Why warranted:** Recent-vs-Pre-warming table (L533-572, +`cmp_combined`) shows VPD with positive Δ absolute and a +significant trend p — directly visible. The vignette's +"double-dipping" framing is the same air-T-up + RH-down combination +Ficklin & Novick 2017 attribute the western-US VPD rise to. Direct +methodological match for the vignette's load-bearing claim. + +--- + +## 6. Mantua 2010 + Eaton & Scheller 1996 — climate→stream-temp→fish bridge (Interpretation, L1012–1018) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "For the cold-water resident +salmonids the Kootenay Lake region supports — bull trout, Gerrard +rainbow trout, mountain whitefish, kokanee — these signals +compound. Stream temperatures are likely rising in step with +warmer ambient air temperatures; the evapotranspiration imbalance +means low-flow conditions in late summer are not being relieved +(precipitation is falling, not rising as in the Peace); the +cold-water input that high-elevation snowpack provides to streams +during the warmest, most thermally stressful weeks of summer is +dropping in parallel with summer SWE..." + +**Source quotes (from #58 archive findings.md, topic +`climate_stream_temp_bridge`):** +> "Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally +> stress salmon throughout Washington's watersheds, becoming +> increasingly severe later in the twenty-first century... combined +> effects of warming summertime stream temperatures and altered +> streamflows will likely reduce the reproductive success for many +> Washington salmon populations." — Mantua et al. 2010, Climatic +> Change + +> "The effects of climate warming on the thermal habitat of 57 +> species of fish of the U.S. were estimated... cold-water and +> cool-water species are predicted to lose substantially more +> thermal habitat than warm-water species." — Eaton & Scheller +> 1996, L&O + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` / +`climate_stream_temp_bridge` + +**Paraphrase as written (proposed):** "Stream temperatures are +likely rising in step with warmer ambient air temperatures, with +the combined effects of warming summer stream temperatures and +altered low flows likely reducing thermally-suitable habitat for +cold-water species +[@mantua_etal2010Climatechange; @eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate]..." + +**Why warranted:** this is the load-bearing climate→fish bridge +for the FWCP fish-passage-planner audience. Visible in **summer +Tmax warming** (Trends section, table) + **summer SWE collapse** +(Snowpack section). Without this cite, the assertion that "stream +temps rise → cold-water species lose habitat" is unsupported. +Mantua 2010 = PNW regional anchor, Eaton & Scheller 1996 = the +foundational cold/cool/warm-water-species thermal-habitat +methodology. + +--- + +## 7. Kang 2016 — Fraser freshet advance (Interpretation, L1024–1025) + +**Vignette excerpt (current):** "The neighbouring Fraser Basin +documents the same kind of freshet advance (Kang et al. 2016) at +comparable magnitude." + +**Source quote (already cited in vignette at L311 as +`@kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly`; from snow rag, archive #54 +findings.md):** +> "10-day advances of the onset of the spring freshets for the +> Fraser River at Hope... declines persist during the recession +> to lower flows in autumn just when the salmon are migrating up +> the Fraser River." — Kang et al. 2016, Sci Rep + +**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/snow_methodology.duckdb` / +`bc_specific` + +**Paraphrase as written (proposed):** convert prose "(Kang et al. +2016)" → "[@kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly]" or +"[-@kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly]" depending on narrative form + +**Why warranted:** existing prose-style author ref — just convert +to consistent `[@key]` format. Kang 2016 is already cited +elsewhere in the vignette in the same format we're targeting. This +is consistency cleanup, not new attribution. + +--- + +## Out-of-audit observations + +- **3 FWCP Peace cross-references** at L528, L973, L996 should + not be in this stand-alone vignette per + `feedback_thorough_cross_reference_removal.md` memory. Out of + scope for #65 (citation wire-up only); flagged in progress.md + as a separate follow-up issue worth filing. +- The existing 14 Snowpack-section `[@key]` markers from #54 are + intact and well-grounded — not re-audited here. + +## Independent review agent — checklist + +The Phase 3 review agent should verify, for each row above: + +1. The source quote actually exists in the cited paper (not + hallucinated) +2. The paraphrase as written in the vignette is faithful to the + source — no overreach, no claim the paper doesn't support +3. The "why warranted" reasoning matches an actually-visible + feature in the vignette's plots/tables (not a feature claimed + but not shown) +4. No BS — if a citation looks like decoration rather than + load-bearing, flag it for removal From 2f4ce8c433012caa15ee3dccef90d02402141425 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: almac2022 Date: Tue, 5 May 2026 15:34:07 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 3/5] Phase 2: insert 7 citations into kootenay-lake.Rmd interpretation paragraphs Adds 8 new BBT-keyed citations (1 reuses kang_etal2016 already in Snowpack section) into non-snow vignette sections. Each cite lands on a finding visible in the AOI's plots/tables per the feedback_vignette_citations_sparse.md philosophy. Audit trail in planning/active/citation_audit.md. Insertions: - L184 Trends: Hansen 2012 (1951-1980 base period precedent) - L195 Trends: Arguez & Vose 2011 (WMO climate normal definition) - L246 Daytime/Overnight: Karl 1993 (DTR asymmetry; converts prose-style author ref to [@key]) - L584 Spatial Pattern: Pepin 2015 + Rangwala & Miller 2012 (elevation-dependent warming + heterogeneity caveat) - L984 Interpretation/drying: Ficklin & Novick 2017 (VPD continental-scale drying) - L1012 Interpretation/salmonids: Mantua 2010 + Eaton & Scheller 1996 (climate-stream-temp-fish bridge) - L1024 Interpretation/Fraser: Kang 2016 (converts prose-style author ref to [@key]) Snowpack-section cites from #54 untouched. FWCP Peace cross-refs at L528, L973, L996 NOT touched (out of scope for #65; flagged in progress.md for follow-up). Refs #65. --- vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd | 64 ++++++++++++++++++++++--------------- 1 file changed, 38 insertions(+), 26 deletions(-) diff --git a/vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd b/vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd index edc1dda..6823ae7 100644 --- a/vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd +++ b/vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd @@ -182,7 +182,9 @@ knitr::kable(head(ts, 10), ## Trends Anomalies are computed against a pre-warming reference period — 1951–1980, -the three decades before climate change accelerated. Saying a year is +the three decades before climate change accelerated. This is the same base +period @hansen_etal2012Perceptionclimate use to detect the emergence of +3-sigma summertime-temperature outliers globally. Saying a year is "+1.5 °C" means it was 1.5 °C warmer than the average year between 1951 and 1980. @@ -193,10 +195,10 @@ from two different start years: magnitude of warming since the pre-warming reference. - **1981–present (45 years)** — starts at the beginning of the World Meteorological Organization's most recent 30-year "climate normal" - (1981–2010). This is the reference period used in most published - climate products, so it makes results easy to compare against - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and government - climate summaries. + (1981–2010) [@arguez_vose2011DefinitionStandard]. This is the + reference period used in most published climate products, so it + makes results easy to compare against Intergovernmental Panel on + Climate Change reports and government climate summaries. Comparing the two slopes is informative. If the 45-year slope is steeper than the 75-year slope, warming has accelerated — recent decades are @@ -243,9 +245,9 @@ The cd package ships daytime maximum (tmax) and overnight minimum (tmin) temperatures alongside the daily mean. They carry distinct information. Overnight minimums warming faster than daytime maximums — the "day-night asymmetry" — is one of the textbook fingerprints of -greenhouse warming (Karl et al. 1993). Whether a watershed or region -shows that signal depends on local geography (valley inversions, snow -cover, slope-aspect mix). +greenhouse warming [@karl_etal1993NewPerspective]. Whether a +watershed or region shows that signal depends on local geography +(valley inversions, snow cover, slope-aspect mix). For the Kootenay Lake Region, **overnight minimums are warming faster than daytime maximums** — the textbook day-night asymmetry, though @@ -581,10 +583,13 @@ pattern carries the rest of the story. Warming is not spatially uniform across the region. Total departures range from about +1.2 °C at the lowest-warming pixels to +2.2 °C at the highest, with a regional mean near +1.7 °C. Higher-elevation -pixels tend to show stronger warming — the high-elevation -amplification signal that shows up consistently at mid-latitude -mountain sites — but the gradient is mixed enough that no single -axis (north-south or east-west) carries the full pattern. +pixels tend to show stronger warming — consistent with the +elevation-dependent warming signal documented at mid-latitude +mountain sites [@pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming], though +not every mountain region shows the same pattern and the regional +evidence base remains heterogeneous [@rangwala_miller2012Climatechange]. +The gradient here is mixed enough that no single axis (north-south +or east-west) carries the full pattern. ```{r spatial-tmean, fig.cap="Spatial pattern of annual mean temperature departure across the Kootenay Lake Region (2015-2025 mean minus 1951-1980 mean, degrees C).", fig.height=7} # Pre-computed by data-raw/kootenay_lake_vignette_data.R. Live equivalent: @@ -983,9 +988,12 @@ signal. **The atmosphere is drying.** Vapour pressure deficit — the gap between how much water the air could hold and how much it actually -does — is up significantly across the region. Combined with -declining precipitation, this is a "double-dipping" signal: less -water arriving as precipitation, *and* warmer air pulling more +does — is up significantly across the region, mirroring the +continental-scale drying that @ficklin_novick2017Historicprojected +documented across the western United States, driven by combined +air-temperature increases and relative-humidity declines. Combined +with declining precipitation, this is a "double-dipping" signal: +less water arriving as precipitation, *and* warmer air pulling more water out of soil and vegetation through evapotranspiration. Soil moisture is essentially flat despite the precipitation decline — the warmer atmosphere is drinking surface moisture at a rate that @@ -1012,17 +1020,21 @@ the signal is not concentrated in any one ecoregion. For the cold-water resident salmonids the Kootenay Lake region supports — bull trout, Gerrard rainbow trout, mountain whitefish, kokanee — these signals compound. Stream temperatures are likely -rising in step with warmer ambient air temperatures; the -evapotranspiration imbalance means low-flow conditions in late -summer are not being relieved (precipitation is falling, not -rising as in the Peace); the cold-water input that high-elevation -snowpack provides to streams during the warmest, most thermally -stressful weeks of summer is dropping in parallel with summer -SWE; and the spring freshet — the dominant high-flow event that -shapes channel morphology, mobilizes spawning gravels, and -refills off-channel rearing habitat — is shifting weeks earlier. -The neighbouring Fraser Basin documents the same kind of freshet -advance (Kang et al. 2016) at comparable magnitude. Lower +rising in step with warmer ambient air temperatures, and the +combined effect of warming summer stream temperatures and altered +low flows is expected to reduce thermally-suitable habitat for +cold-water species [@mantua_etal2010Climatechange; +@eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate]. The evapotranspiration +imbalance means low-flow conditions in late summer are not being +relieved (precipitation is falling, not rising as in the Peace); +the cold-water input that high-elevation snowpack provides to +streams during the warmest, most thermally stressful weeks of +summer is dropping in parallel with summer SWE; and the spring +freshet — the dominant high-flow event that shapes channel +morphology, mobilizes spawning gravels, and refills off-channel +rearing habitat — is shifting weeks earlier. The neighbouring +Fraser Basin documents the same kind of freshet advance +[@kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly] at comparable magnitude. Lower Columbia River reaches below Hugh Keenleyside Dam are dam-fragmented and not anadromous, so the ecological framing is about resident salmonids and their habitat rather than salmon From 45a734eeeab6a2ae3907b5cf256b0ce50188cd3f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: almac2022 Date: Tue, 5 May 2026 15:37:22 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 4/5] Phase 3: review-agent sign-off + Ficklin scope fix --- planning/active/citation_audit.md | 22 ++++++++++++++++++++++ planning/active/progress.md | 15 ++++++++++++--- vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd | 6 ++++-- 3 files changed, 38 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/planning/active/citation_audit.md b/planning/active/citation_audit.md index 472ce88..0278bed 100644 --- a/planning/active/citation_audit.md +++ b/planning/active/citation_audit.md @@ -293,3 +293,25 @@ The Phase 3 review agent should verify, for each row above: but not shown) 4. No BS — if a citation looks like decoration rather than load-bearing, flag it for removal + +## Phase 3 — Review agent sign-off (2026-05-05) + +Spawned an Explore subagent to verify each row. **All 7 rows +passed** scientific-integrity review: no hallucinated quotes, +paraphrases faithful, warrants visible in plots/tables, all cites +load-bearing. Agent flagged one minor scope concern: + +- **Row 5 (Ficklin & Novick 2017):** initial paraphrase said + "documented across the western United States" but the paper + covers the entire continental US (1979–2013), with the + strongest historical VPD increases concentrated in the + western/southern portions. **Fixed in vignette** — + "documented for the United States as a whole, with the + strongest historical VPD increases concentrated in the western + and southern portions, driven by combined air-temperature + increases and relative-humidity declines." Now accurate to the + paper's full scope. + +No other edits or removals required. Agent's overall +recommendation: **keep all 7 cites as-is** (with the Ficklin +fix applied). diff --git a/planning/active/progress.md b/planning/active/progress.md index f36404b..88dee7c 100644 --- a/planning/active/progress.md +++ b/planning/active/progress.md @@ -23,6 +23,15 @@ - Scaffolded PWF baseline mirroring earlier issues' structure but with consumer-side phases (audit log, agent review, render check) -- Next: Phase 1 — build citation_audit.md with one row per - proposed `[@key]` insertion (vignette excerpt, source quote, - rag store, my paraphrase, justification) +- Phase 1 done: planning/active/citation_audit.md built with 7 + proposed insertion rows (8 unique new keys + 1 reuse of + kang_etal2016) +- Phase 2 done: 7 insertions made into kootenay-lake.Rmd + (+38/-26 lines, light prose smoothing) +- Phase 3 done: Explore subagent ran independent verification on + all 7 audit rows. **All passed.** One minor scope fix on + Ficklin & Novick (paraphrase said "western US" but paper + covers continental US with western-concentration in results) — + fixed inline. No other edits / removals. +- Next: Phase 4 — push branch, let CI pkgdown render verify all + `[@key]` markers resolve via rbbt::bbt_write_bib. Then PR. diff --git a/vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd b/vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd index 6823ae7..58159a6 100644 --- a/vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd +++ b/vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd @@ -990,8 +990,10 @@ signal. between how much water the air could hold and how much it actually does — is up significantly across the region, mirroring the continental-scale drying that @ficklin_novick2017Historicprojected -documented across the western United States, driven by combined -air-temperature increases and relative-humidity declines. Combined +documented for the United States as a whole, with the strongest +historical VPD increases concentrated in the western and southern +portions, driven by combined air-temperature increases and +relative-humidity declines. Combined with declining precipitation, this is a "double-dipping" signal: less water arriving as precipitation, *and* warmer air pulling more water out of soil and vegetation through evapotranspiration. Soil From 6fbe7a06ee9da96a284b86cf12aac57b85a0d905 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: almac2022 Date: Tue, 5 May 2026 15:39:27 -0700 Subject: [PATCH 5/5] Phase 4: regenerate references.bib via rbbt for 8 new BBT keys --- planning/active/progress.md | 13 +++- vignettes/references.bib | 150 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++----- 2 files changed, 142 insertions(+), 21 deletions(-) diff --git a/planning/active/progress.md b/planning/active/progress.md index 88dee7c..1dcb97e 100644 --- a/planning/active/progress.md +++ b/planning/active/progress.md @@ -33,5 +33,14 @@ Ficklin & Novick (paraphrase said "western US" but paper covers continental US with western-concentration in results) — fixed inline. No other edits / removals. -- Next: Phase 4 — push branch, let CI pkgdown render verify all - `[@key]` markers resolve via rbbt::bbt_write_bib. Then PR. +- Phase 4 done: regenerated `vignettes/references.bib` via + `rbbt::bbt_update_bib(path_rmd = "vignettes/kootenay-lake.Rmd", + path_bib = "vignettes/references.bib", overwrite = TRUE)`. + Now has 18 entries (was 11) — 8 new (arguez, eaton, ficklin, + hansen, karl, mantua, pepin, rangwala), 1 reuse (kang), 9 carried + forward from #54, 1 dropped (munoz-sabater wasn't actually cited + here). Spot-checked Karl 93 entry — full author list, DOI, + clean bibtex +- Next: Phase 5 — push branch, open PR. Local render skipped + (data-raw precompute pattern + CI pkgdown will catch any cite + resolution issues; lighter than locally re-running the precompute) diff --git a/vignettes/references.bib b/vignettes/references.bib index e96c1b3..301a994 100644 --- a/vignettes/references.bib +++ b/vignettes/references.bib @@ -1,3 +1,20 @@ +@article{arguez_vose2011DefinitionStandard, + title = {The {{Definition}} of the {{Standard WMO Climate Normal}}: {{The Key}} to {{Deriving Alternative Climate Normals}}}, + author = {Arguez, Anthony and Vose, Russell S.}, + date = {2011-06-01}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + volume = {92}, + number = {6}, + pages = {699--704}, + issn = {0003-0007}, + doi = {10.1175/2010BAMS2955.1}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/2010bams2955.1}, + abstract = {No Abstract available.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cd-issue-63,interpretation-framing-methodology}, + file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/PTQ9PAHZ/arguez_vose2011.pdf} +} + @article{cayan_etal2001ChangesOnset, title = {Changes in the {{Onset}} of {{Spring}} in the {{Western United States}}}, author = {Cayan, Daniel R. and Dettinger, Michael D. and Kammerdiener, Susan A. and Caprio, Joseph M. and Peterson, David H.}, @@ -14,6 +31,56 @@ @article{cayan_etal2001ChangesOnset file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/9R74HB5D/cayan_etal2001.pdf} } +@article{eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate, + title = {Effects of Climate Warming on Fish Thermal Habitat in Streams of the {{United States}}}, + author = {Eaton, John G. and Scheller, Robert M.}, + date = {1996-07}, + journaltitle = {Limnology and Oceanography}, + volume = {41}, + number = {5}, + pages = {1109--1115}, + issn = {0024-3590}, + doi = {10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.1109}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1996.41.5.1109}, + abstract = {The effects of climate warming on the thermal habitat of 57 species of fish of the U.S. were estimated using results for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide that were predicted by the Canadian Climate Center general circulation model. Baseline water temperature conditions were calculated from data collected at 1,700 U.S. Geological Survey stream monitoring stations across the U.S. Water temperatures after predicted climate change were obtained by multiplying air temperature changes by 0.9, a factor based on several field studies, and adding them to baseline water temperatures at stations in corresponding grid cells. Results indicated that habitat for cold and cool water fish would be reduced by ∼50\%, and that this effect would be distributed throughout the existing range of these species. Habitat losses were greater among species with smaller initial distributions and in geographic regions with the greatest warming (e.g. the central Midwest). Results for warm water fish habitat were less certain because of the poor state of knowledge regarding their high and low temperature tolerances; however, the habitat of many species of this thermal guild likely will also be substantially reduced by climate warming, whereas the habitat of other species will be increased.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cd-issue-58,temperature-departure-methodology}, + file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/72R34DQB/eaton_scheller1996.pdf} +} + +@article{ficklin_novick2017Historicprojected, + title = {Historic and Projected Changes in Vapor Pressure Deficit Suggest a Continental‐scale Drying of the {{United States}} Atmosphere}, + author = {Ficklin, Darren L. and Novick, Kimberly A.}, + date = {2017-02-16}, + journaltitle = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres}, + volume = {122}, + number = {4}, + pages = {2061--2079}, + issn = {2169-897X}, + doi = {10.1002/2016JD025855}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jd025855}, + abstract = {AbstractVia air temperature increases and relative humidity changes, climate change will modify vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is an important determinant of water vapor and CO2 exchange between the land surface and atmosphere. VPD is the difference between the water vapor the air can hold at saturation (es) and the actual amount of water vapor (ea). Here we assess changes in VPD, es, and ea in the United States (U.S.) for the recent past (1979–2013) and the future (2065–2099) using gridded, observed climate data and output from general circulation models. Historically, VPD has increased for all seasons, driven by increases in es and declines in ea. The spring, summer, and fall seasons exhibited the largest areal extent of significant increases in VPD, which was largely concentrated in the western and southern portions of the U.S. The changes in VPD stemmed from recent air temperature increases and relative humidity decreases. Projections indicate similar, amplified patterns into the future. For the summer, the general circulation model ensemble median showed a 51\% projected increase (quartile range of 39 and 64\%) in summer VPD for the U.S., reflecting temperature‐driven increases in es but decreases or minimal changes in relative humidity that promotes negligible changes in ea. Using a simple model for plant hydraulic functioning, we also show that in the absence of stomatal acclimation, future changes in VPD can reduce stomatal conductance by 9–51\%, which is a magnitude comparable to the expected decline in stomatal conductance from rising CO2.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cd-issue-61,precip-drying-departure-methodology}, + file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/XT4HG85Q/ficklin_novick2017.pdf} +} + +@article{hansen_etal2012Perceptionclimate, + title = {Perception of Climate Change}, + author = {Hansen, James and Sato, Makiko and Ruedy, Reto}, + date = {2012-08-06}, + journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, + volume = {109}, + number = {37}, + issn = {0027-8424}, + doi = {10.1073/pnas.1205276109}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1205276109}, + abstract = {“Climate dice,” describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more “loaded” in the past 30~y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951–1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1\% of Earth’s surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10\% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cd-issue-63,interpretation-framing-methodology}, + file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/S7JUXCGB/hansen_etal2012.pdf} +} + @article{kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly, title = {Impacts of a {{Rapidly Declining Mountain Snowpack}} on {{Streamflow Timing}} in {{Canada}}’s {{Fraser River Basin}}}, author = {Kang, Do Hyuk and Gao, Huilin and Shi, Xiaogang and family=Islam, given=Siraj, prefix=ul, useprefix=false and Déry, Stephen J.}, @@ -30,6 +97,22 @@ @article{kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/I6HJU2U9/kang_etal2016.pdf} } +@article{karl_etal1993NewPerspective, + title = {A {{New Perspective}} on {{Recent Global Warming}}: {{Asymmetric Trends}} of {{Daily Maximum}} and {{Minimum Temperature}}}, + author = {Karl, Thomas R. and Knight, Richard W. and Gallo, Kevin P. and Peterson, Thomas C. and Jones, Philip D. and Kukla, George and Plummer, Neil and Razuvayev, Vyacheslav and Lindseay, Janette and Charlson, Robert J.}, + date = {1993-06}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + volume = {74}, + number = {6}, + pages = {1007--1023}, + issn = {0003-0007}, + doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<1007:ANPORG>2.0.CO;2}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<1007:anporg>2.0.co;2}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cd-issue-58,temperature-departure-methodology}, + file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/X2UMWNUB/karl_etal1993.pdf} +} + @article{knowles_etal2006TrendsSnowfall, title = {Trends in {{Snowfall}} versus {{Rainfall}} in the {{Western United States}}}, author = {Knowles, Noah and Dettinger, Michael D. and Cayan, Daniel R.}, @@ -64,6 +147,22 @@ @article{kouki_etal2023Evaluationsnow file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/XXK3PP36/kouki_etal2023.pdf} } +@article{mantua_etal2010Climatechange, + title = {Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Extremes and Summertime Stream Temperature and Their Possible Consequences for Freshwater Salmon Habitat in {{Washington State}}}, + author = {Mantua, Nathan and Tohver, Ingrid and Hamlet, Alan}, + date = {2010-04-27}, + journaltitle = {Climatic Change}, + volume = {102}, + number = {1--2}, + pages = {187--223}, + issn = {0165-0009}, + doi = {10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cd-issue-58,temperature-departure-methodology}, + file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/E5DWJAGA/mantua_etal2010.pdf} +} + @article{mote_etal2005DECLININGMOUNTAIN, title = {{{DECLINING MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA}}*}, author = {Mote, Philip W. and Hamlet, Alan F. and Clark, Martyn P. and Lettenmaier, Dennis P.}, @@ -96,25 +195,6 @@ @article{mote_etal2018Dramaticdeclines file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/DEV98ZWA/mote_etal2018.pdf} } -@article{munoz-sabater_etal2021ERA5Landstateoftheart, - title = {{{ERA5-Land}}: A State-of-the-Art Global Reanalysis Dataset for Land Applications}, - shorttitle = {{{ERA5-Land}}}, - author = {Muñoz-Sabater, Joaquín and Dutra, Emanuel and Agustí-Panareda, Anna and Albergel, Clément and Arduini, Gabriele and Balsamo, Gianpaolo and Boussetta, Souhail and Choulga, Margarita and Harrigan, Shaun and Hersbach, Hans and Martens, Brecht and Miralles, Diego G. and Piles, María and Rodríguez-Fernández, Nemesio J. and Zsoter, Ervin and Buontempo, Carlo and Thépaut, Jean-Noël}, - date = {2021-09-07}, - journaltitle = {Earth System Science Data}, - shortjournal = {Earth Syst. Sci. Data}, - volume = {13}, - number = {9}, - pages = {4349--4383}, - issn = {1866-3516}, - doi = {10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021}, - url = {https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/13/4349/2021/}, - urldate = {2026-04-02}, - abstract = {Abstract. Framed within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Commission, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing an enhanced global dataset for the land component of the fifth generation of European ReAnalysis (ERA5), hereafter referred to as ERA5-Land. Once completed, the period covered will span from 1950 to the present, with continuous updates to support land monitoring applications. ERA5-Land describes the evolution of the water and energy cycles over land in a consistent manner over the production period, which, among others, could be used to analyse trends and anomalies. This is achieved through global high-resolution numerical integrations of the ECMWF land surface model driven by the downscaled meteorological forcing from the ERA5 climate reanalysis, including an elevation correction for the thermodynamic near-surface state. ERA5-Land shares with ERA5 most of the parameterizations that guarantees the use of the state-of-the-art land surface modelling applied to numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. A main advantage of ERA5-Land compared to ERA5 and the older ERA-Interim is the horizontal resolution, which is enhanced globally to 9\,km compared to 31\,km (ERA5) or 80\,km (ERA-Interim), whereas the temporal resolution is hourly as in ERA5. Evaluation against independent in situ observations and global model or satellite-based reference datasets shows the added value of ERA5-Land in the description of the hydrological cycle, in particular with enhanced soil moisture and lake description, and an overall better agreement of river discharge estimations with available observations. However, ERA5-Land snow depth fields present a mixed performance when compared to those of ERA5, depending on geographical location and altitude. The description of the energy cycle shows comparable results with ERA5. Nevertheless, ERA5-Land reduces the global averaged root mean square error of the skin temperature, taking as reference MODIS data, mainly due to the contribution of coastal points where spatial resolution is important. Since January~2020, the ERA5-Land period available has extended from January~1981 to the near present, with a 2- to 3-month delay with respect to real time. The segment prior to 1981 is in production, aiming for a release of the whole dataset in summer/autumn~2021. The high spatial and temporal resolution of ERA5-Land, its extended period, and the consistency of the fields produced makes it a valuable dataset to support hydrological studies, to initialize NWP and climate models, and to support diverse applications dealing with water resource, land, and environmental management. The full ERA5-Land hourly (Muñoz-Sabater,~2019a) and monthly (Muñoz-Sabater,~2019b) averaged datasets presented in this paper are available through the C3S Climate Data Store at https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac and https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68d2bb30, respectively.}, - langid = {english}, - file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/SUS5A57A/muñoz-sabater_et_al._2021-era5-land_a_state-o.pdf} -} - @article{najafi_etal2017AttributionObserved, title = {Attribution of the {{Observed Spring Snowpack Decline}} in {{British Columbia}} to {{Anthropogenic Climate Change}}}, author = {Najafi, Mohammad Reza and Zwiers, Francis and Gillett, Nathan}, @@ -149,6 +229,38 @@ @article{pederson_etal2011UnusualNature file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/6N5KTSRK/The_Unusual_Nature_of_Recent_Snowpack_Declines_in_.pdf} } +@article{pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming, + title = {Elevation-Dependent Warming in Mountain Regions of the World}, + author = {Pepin, N. and Bradley, R. S. and Diaz, H. F. and Baraer, M. and Caceres, E. B. and Forsythe, N. and Fowler, H. and Greenwood, G. and Hashmi, M. Z. and Liu, X. D. and Miller, J. R. and Ning, L. and Ohmura, A. and Palazzi, E. and Rangwala, I. and Schöner, W. and Severskiy, I. and Shahgedanova, M. and Wang, M. B. and Williamson, S. N. and Yang, D. Q.}, + date = {2015-04-23}, + journaltitle = {Nature Climate Change}, + volume = {5}, + number = {5}, + pages = {424--430}, + issn = {1758-678X}, + doi = {10.1038/nclimate2563}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cd-issue-58,temperature-departure-methodology}, + file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/UJVF9IFP/pepin_etal2015.pdf} +} + +@article{rangwala_miller2012Climatechange, + title = {Climate Change in Mountains: A Review of Elevation-Dependent Warming and Its Possible Causes}, + author = {Rangwala, Imtiaz and Miller, James R.}, + date = {2012-03-16}, + journaltitle = {Climatic Change}, + volume = {114}, + number = {3--4}, + pages = {527--547}, + issn = {0165-0009}, + doi = {10.1007/s10584-012-0419-3}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0419-3}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cd-issue-58,temperature-departure-methodology}, + file = {/Users/airvine/Zotero/storage/GR9S4I3F/rangwala_miller2012.pdf} +} + @article{stewart_etal2005ChangesEarlier, title = {Changes toward {{Earlier Streamflow Timing}} across {{Western North America}}}, author = {Stewart, Iris T. and Cayan, Daniel R. and Dettinger, Michael D.},