# Hierarchical Panel (`HierarchicalPanel`) ## Description Hierarchical Bayesian panel VAR that allows for heterogeneity across units while sharing information through a hierarchical prior structure. Each unit has its own VAR parameters, but these are drawn from a common distribution whose hyperparameters are themselves estimated. ## Technical Details - Each unit i has its own coefficient vector βᵢ and error covariance matrix Σᵢ - Unit-specific coefficients are drawn from a common distribution: βᵢ ~ N(b, λ₁Ω_b) - Hyperparameters (b, λ₁) are estimated from the data - Information sharing occurs through the hierarchical prior structure - Suitable for panels where units are heterogeneous but share common characteristics ## User Settings (Hyperparameters) ### Hierarchical Panel-Specific Settings #### `S0` (double) - **Description**: Inverse-Gamma shape parameter for overall tightness hyperparameter λ₁ - **Default**: `0.001` - **Details**: Shape parameter for the IG prior on λ₁. Small values provide diffuse prior on the common variance across units ? #### `V0` (double) - **Description**: Inverse-Gamma scale parameter for overall tightness hyperparameter λ₁ - **Default**: `0.001` - **Details**: Scale parameter for the IG prior on λ₁. Together with S0, controls the prior distribution of cross-unit heterogeneity ? ### Inherited Base Settings #### `Burnin` (double) - **Description**: Number of burn-in draws for posterior sampling - **Default**: `0` - **Details**: Number of initial MCMC draws to discard before collecting posterior samples #### `StabilityThreshold` (double) - **Description**: Threshold for maximum eigenvalue magnitude to ensure VAR stability - **Default**: `Inf` (no stability check) - **Details**: Maximum allowed eigenvalue magnitude; draws with eigenvalues exceeding this are rejected ? #### `MaxNumUnstableAttempts` (double) - **Description**: Maximum number of unstable sampling attempts before giving up - **Default**: `1000` - **Details**: If stability checking is enabled, this limits the number of consecutive unstable draws before termination ? ### Panel VAR Hyperparameters #### `Lambda2` (double) - **Description**: Cross-variable weighting parameter for unit-specific priors - **Default**: `0.5` - **Details**: Controls the relative tightness of priors on cross-variable coefficients vs. own-lag coefficients within each unit #### `Lambda3` (double) - **Description**: Lag decay parameter for unit-specific priors - **Default**: `1.0` - **Details**: Controls the rate of decay of prior variance with lag length within each unit. Higher values = faster decay #### `Lambda4` (double matrix) - **Description**: Exogenous variable tightness parameter for unit-specific priors - **Default**: `100` - **Details**: Controls the tightness of priors on exogenous variables and constants within each unit. Higher values = looser priors ## Implementation Details - **Three-level hierarchy**: 1. Data level: yᵢₜ = Xᵢₜβᵢ + εᵢₜ, εᵢₜ ~ N(0, Σᵢ) 2. Unit level: βᵢ ~ N(b, λ₁Ω_b), Σᵢ ~ IW(S̃ᵢ, T) 3. Hyperparameter level: b ~ N(β̄, (1/N)λ₁Ω_b), λ₁ ~ IG(s₀, v₀) - **Sampling sequence**: 1. Draw common mean b from its conditional posterior 2. Draw variance hyperparameter λ₁ from its conditional posterior 3. Draw unit-specific parameters (βᵢ, Σᵢ) for each unit - **Prior structure**: Unit-specific priors Ω_b follow Minnesota-style structure with λ₂, λ₃, λ₄ parameters ## Usage Recommendations - **Cross-unit heterogeneity**: Increase S0 and V0 for more diffuse priors on λ₁, allowing more heterogeneity ? - **Strong pooling**: Use smaller values of S0 and V0 to encourage more similar parameters across units ? - **Standard panel applications**: Use default hierarchical hyperparameters (S0=V0=0.001) - **Unit-specific priors**: Adjust λ₂, λ₃, λ₄ similar to Minnesota VAR guidelines - **Sample size considerations**: Requires sufficient observations per unit for stable estimation ## Limitations - Cannot be used with dummy observations (CanHaveDummies = false) - Requires balanced panel data with sufficient time series length per unit ? - Computational intensity scales with number of units - Assumes common prior structure across all units (may be restrictive) ## Comparison to Other Panel Estimators - **vs. MeanOLSPanel**: More flexible, allows for unit-specific error covariances - **vs. NormalWishartPanel**: Hierarchical structure provides automatic determination of pooling degree - **vs. Cross-unit panels**: No cross-unit spillovers, units are separable