Updated website for 2016 election

www/react/reps.jsx

@@ -19,6 +19,8 @@ var RepsResultText = React.createClass({
                 the Greens <span className="repsSummaryNumber">{nGrnSeats}</span>,
                 Palmer United with <span className="repsSummaryNumber">{nPupSeats}</span> and
                 Independents winning <span className="repsSummaryNumber">{nOthSeats}</span>.
+                <br/><b>Caveats:</b> The model is likely to get about 10-12 individual seats wrong, hopefully in a way that stays close to the overall total.
+                  And it's based on state-level polls, so individual seats could behave very differently if they have unsusually high third-party or independent votes.
             </div>
         );
     }
@@ -94,8 +96,8 @@ var RepsSeatExtraInfoRow = React.createClass({
     render: function() {
         var wikiLink = "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_" + this.props.data.name;
         var aecLink = "http://www.aec.gov.au/" + this.props.data.name.toLowerCase();
-        var tallyRoomLink = "http://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2013/" + this.props.data.name.toLowerCase() + "2013";
-        var abcLink = "http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/" + this.props.data.name.toLowerCase().substring(0,4);
+        var tallyRoomLink = "http://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2016/" + this.props.data.name.toLowerCase() + "2016";
+        var abcLink = "http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/" + this.props.data.name.toLowerCase().substring(0,4);
         return(
             <div className="seatExtraInfo">
                 <div className="seatWikiLink">
@@ -189,7 +191,7 @@ var RepsStatesFilter = React.createClass({
 var RepsSection = React.createClass({
     getInitialState: function() {
         return({
-            seatTypes: "changingHands",
+            seatTypes: "all",
             statesToShow: "allStates"
         });
     },

www/views/index.html

@@ -22,8 +22,7 @@ <h2>Summary</h2>
                 ALP {{=it.electionSummaryStats.primary.ALP}}, Greens {{=it.electionSummaryStats.primary.GRN}}, Palmer United {{=it.electionSummaryStats.primary.PUP}}, Independent/Other {{=it.electionSummaryStats.primary.OTH}}.
                 See the Trends section for more details.
             </p>
-            <p>A hypothetical election held now would probably lead to
-                <b>{{=it.electionSummaryStats.mostLikelyOutcome.length == 2 ? it.electionSummaryStats.mostLikelyOutcome[0] : it.electionSummaryStats.mostLikelyOutcome}}</b>.
+            <p>The model figures a 90&percnt; probability of an LNP win, an 8&percnt; chance of a hung parliament, and a 2&percnt; chance of an ALP majority.
                 See the House of Reps section below for details on individual seats.
             </p>
         </div>
@@ -152,7 +151,7 @@ <h3>The Model</h3>
                     as noisy observations of the underlying data averaged over a quarter.</p>
                 <p>The complete code and data for the model, and for this website, are available on <a href="https://github.com/PhantomTrend/ptcode">GitHub</a>.
                     <h3>See Also</h3>
-                    <p>There's another statistical polling model over at <a href="http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/">Mark The Ballot</a>, and one under development by <a href="http://www.clintonboys.com/emma-chisit/">Clinton Boys</a>. The <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger">Poll Bludger</a> and <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/">Dr Kevin Bonham</a>                        both publish regularly updated polling aggregates which they put together using their own judgement.</p>
+                    <p>There's another statistical polling model over at <a href="http://marktheballot.blogspot.com/">Mark The Ballot</a>, and one under development by <a href="http://www.clintonboys.com/emma-chisit/">Clinton Boys</a>. The <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger">Poll Bludger</a> and <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/">Dr Kevin Bonham</a>                        both publish regularly updated polling aggregates which they put together using their own judgement. And Hugh Parsonage has a wonderful visualisation of the Reps over at <a href="http://150hexagons.com/">150 Hexagons</a>.</p>
                     <h3>Thanks</h3>
                     <p>Shouts out to Thomas McMahon who supplied a bunch of this data. And massive thanks to the <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger">Poll Bludger</a> and the <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes">Ghost Who Votes</a>, who
                         curated the rest.</p>