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probability forecasting with macro variables
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PROFOR Toolbox: (PRO)bability (FOR)ecasting Toolbox -- demo version

What is it?

The PRObability FORecasting (PROFOR) toolbox is part of a research project on Probability Forecasting with Macro Variables at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick. The main purpose of the project is to develop, extend and apply procedures to undertake probability forecasting with macro variables. In particular, the toolbox incorporates forecasting models and methods for combining forecasts, together with forecast evaluation metrics.

The demo PROFOR toolbox runs in MATLAB R2014a and R2014b.

The PROFOR development team are: Shaun Vahey (Warwick), Anthony Garratt (Warwick), Liz Wakerly (Warwick), Craig Thamotheram (Warwick) and Leif Anders Thorsrud (BI).

The PROFOR team would like to thank Norges Bank, the Bank of England and Warwick Business School for supporting this project.

The PROFOR toolbox is ditributed under the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later version.


Main Features

To learn about the main features, and how to use PROFOR, utilize the help facility in the toolbox.

The toolbox has to be initialized by the researcher. Make sure that the paths required are defined on the MATLAB search path. Place the downloaded toolbox in the current directory (of MATLAB). Then, simply write in the command window:


Then, to access help, activate the HOME tab in MATLAB. Select 'Help' (under 'RESOURCES', and next to 'Community'), and from the resulting dropdown take 'DOCUMENTATION', the first item. Then, click on 'Supplemental Software', and select the 'PROFOR Toolbox'. Double click to see some options. Take 'PROFOR Overview' to learn about the toolbox, including the main features. Try 'PROFOR User Guide' for helpful examples and details. 'Getting Started...' puts the researcher on the path to using PROFOR.

Where to get it

The source code is currently hosted on GitHub at:


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