diff --git a/lectures/prob_meaning.md b/lectures/prob_meaning.md index f883fff1a..0ea0bdbdf 100644 --- a/lectures/prob_meaning.md +++ b/lectures/prob_meaning.md @@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ The random variable $X $ takes on possible values $k = 0, 1, 2, \ldots, n$ wit $$ \textrm{Prob}(X = k | \theta) = -\left(\frac{n!}{k! (n-k)!} \right) \theta^k (1-\theta)^{n-k} = +\left(\frac{n!}{k! (n-k)!} \right) \theta^k (1-\theta)^{n-k} $$ where the fixed parameter $\theta \in (0,1)$. @@ -95,7 +95,7 @@ Here Consider the following experiment: -Take $I$ **independent** sequences of $n$ **independent** flips of the coin** +Take $I$ **independent** sequences of $n$ **independent** flips of the coin Notice the repeated use of the adjective **independent**: @@ -333,7 +333,7 @@ as $I$ goes to infinity. ## Bayesian Interpretation -We again a binomial distribution. +We again use a binomial distribution. But now we don't regard $\theta$ as being a fixed number. @@ -638,7 +638,7 @@ $$ ={Beta}(\alpha + k, \beta+N-k) $$ -A beta Distribution with $\alpha$ and $\beta$ has the following mean and variance. +A beta distribution with $\alpha$ and $\beta$ has the following mean and variance. The mean is $\frac{\alpha}{\alpha + \beta}$ @@ -679,4 +679,4 @@ Thus, the Bayesian statististian comes to believe that $\theta$ is near $.4$. As shown in the figure above, as the number of observations grows, the Bayesian coverage intervals (BCIs) become narrower and narrower around $0.4$. -However, if you take a closer look, you will find that the centers of the are not exactly $0.4$, due to the persistent influence of the prior distribution and the randomness of the simulation path. +However, if you take a closer look, you will find that the centers of the BCIs are not exactly $0.4$, due to the persistent influence of the prior distribution and the randomness of the simulation path.