diff --git a/paper/paper.md b/paper/paper.md index c7f31eb..913f416 100644 --- a/paper/paper.md +++ b/paper/paper.md @@ -30,19 +30,19 @@ Examples include the outbreak of disease, the collapse of an ecosystem, or the o of a cardiac arrhythmia. From a mathematical perspective, these transitions may be understood as the crossing of a bifurcation (tipping point) in an appropriate dynamical system model. -In 2009, Scheffer and colleagues proposed using statistical metrics to signal the -approach of a bifurcation in time series data [@scheffer2009early]. -This spurred massive interest in the subject of EWS from a wide range scientific disciplines. -Now, there exist a multitude of different EWS and associated methods for -anticipating bifurcations [@clements2018indicators]. - -More recently, deep learning -classifiers have been trained and applied to detect bifurcations, with promising -results [@bury2021deep] - - - -`ewstools` provides an accessible toolbox for computing, analysing and +In 2009, Scheffer and colleagues proposed early warning signals (EWS) for bifurcations +based on statistics of noisy fluctuations in time series data. +This spurred massive interest in the subject, resulting in a multitude of different +EWS for anticipating bifurcations [@clements2018indicators]. More recently, EWS +from deep learning classifiers have outperformed conventional EWS +on several model and empirical datasets [@bury2021deep], whilst also providing +information on the type of bifurcation. +Software packages for EWS can facilitate the development and testing of EWS, +whilst also providing the scientific community with a way to rapidly apply +EWS to their own data. + + +`ewstools` is an accessible Python package for computing, analysing and visualising EWS in time seires data. The package provides: - An intuitive, object-oriented framework to compute EWS in a given dataset @@ -54,7 +54,6 @@ visualising EWS in time seires data. The package provides: - Interactive tutorials in the form of Jupyter notebooks - `ewstools` makes use of several open-source Python packages, including pandas [@mckinney2010data] for dataframe handling, NumPy [@harris2020array] for fast numerical computing, @@ -65,8 +64,6 @@ statsmodels [@seabold2010statsmodels] and SciPy [@virtanen2020scipy] for detrend and TensorFlow [@abadi2016tensorflow] for deep learning. - - # Statement of need Critical transitions are relevant to many disciplines, including ecology, medicine,