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Raffle Win Probability Calculator

This is a script that I wrote to calculate the winning probabilities for an easter raffle.

People choose number(s) between inclusive 1-100. During the draw if an unclaimed number is picked it's discarded and a new one is picked. The script computes the win probabilities in two ways;

  • first using the probability theories (Bayesian),
  • and then statistically (simulating a substantial amount of raffles, people call this Monte-Carlo simulation apparently).

This was basically an exercise for me to remember the subject of dependent probability and just a way to kill some time.

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