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Examining Repressive and Oppressive State Violence using the Ill-Treatement Contents and Torture Data

This repo contains replication materials for:

Beger, Andreas and Daniel W. Hill, Jr., 2019, “Examining Repressive and Oppressive State Violence using the Ill-Treatement Contents and Torture Data”, Conflict Managament and Peace Science.

The journal article link is at https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894219882352, and a pre-print PDF is also included in this repo.

@article{beger2019examining,
  author = {Andreas Beger and Daniel W.\ Hill, Jr.\},
  title = {Examining Repressive and Oppressive State Violence using the Ill-Treatement Contents and Torture Data},
  year = 2019,
  journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
  volume = {},
  number = {},
  doi = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894219882352}
}

(Note to my future self: the private isa-2018 repo contains the original source material, including the tagged ISA 2018 version.)

Setup

To see and installed the R packages needed for replication, see the setup.R script. It preferentially uses the checkpoint packages to install the required packages using the 2019-08-15 CRAN snapshot. This ensures the package versions match those we used when we last updated the results.

It will also check for and if needed create output directories according to the structure shown below, although if you got this code from GitHub they should already be in place.

Working directory

All scripts are setup with the assumption that the working directory is set to the cmps-itt folder.

Code

The R scripts in the R/ folder replicate the figures and tables in the main paper and supplemental appendix. The R/functions.R file contains helper functions used in some of the other scripts, otherwise all the other files can be run in the order they sort alphabetically.

Files that start with si…pertain to the SI. All other files are related to the main article.

All output generated by the scripts will be saved in the output/ folder and sub-folders. It should have the following structure:

- output/
  - figures/
  - figures-robustness/
  - models/
  - tables/

Training the XGBoost model (2-xgboost.R) and the SI expanded model set (si1-estimate-all-models.R) takes a while. We have included the trained XGBoost model in output/mdl-xgboost-orig.rds with output/xgboost-fit-orig.csv and thus it is possible to replicate the main results without re-training it. (Note that if you do re-run 2-xgboost.R, you need to change references to the “-orig” files to versions without those suffixes in some of the scripts.)

There are 1,008 models in the SI. These are not included, but estimating them does not take quite as long as training the XGBoost model.

Script runtimes

Some of the scripts take longer to run. One a 2016 MacBook Pro:

  • 1-estimate-core-models.R: about 10 minutes, mostly for the cross-validation
  • xgboost.R:
  • si1-estimate-all-models.R: about 40 minutes

Supplemental Information / Appdendix Rmarkdown report

The SI was created using a R Markdown report that contains some embedded code. See the contents of the si-text/ folder. The report depends on output generated by the R/si... scripts.

If you are not familiar with R Markdown, the report can be converted to a PDF using this code:

# if needed: install.packages("rmarkdown") 
library("rmarkdown")
rmarkdown::render("si-text/beg_hil_SI.Rmd")

Data

The data is included in the data directory both in R’s native RDS format and in CSV form.

Most variables have prefixes indicating the data source:

  • itt_: Ill-Treatment and Torture data; also binary indicators starting with yy_ and used in an earlier version
  • NY.GDP.MKTP.KD and subequent, including pop: World Bank World Development Indicators
  • v2x_: V-Dem
  • regime and dd_democracy from Cheibub, Gandhi, and Vreeland Democracy and dictatorships data
  • epr_: Ethnic Power Relations
  • variables from internal_confl to ext_conf_minor: UCDP ACD
  • gtd_: Global terrorism database
  • ccp_: Comparative Constitutions Project
  • gmfd_functionallyfree: media freedom; see SI
  • igo_: COW IGO membership dataset; see SI
  • NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS: trade as % of GDP; see SI
  • Human rights organization-related (hro_); see SI
  • Time trends (year_); see SI
cy <- readRDS("data/cy.rds")
str(cy)
## 'data.frame':    1654 obs. of  86 variables:
##  $ gwcode                             : num  2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ...
##  $ year                               : num  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ...
##  $ date                               : Date, format: "1995-01-01" "1996-01-01" ...
##  $ itt_alleg_vtall                    : num  119 107 191 159 73 42 41 72 94 93 ...
##  $ itt_alleg_vtcriminal               : num  70 69 99 91 41 21 15 25 31 34 ...
##  $ itt_alleg_vtdissident              : num  4 1 9 1 2 0 4 13 20 13 ...
##  $ itt_alleg_vtmarginalized           : num  29 30 78 55 15 20 9 9 14 18 ...
##  $ itt_alleg_vtpow                    : num  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 ...
##  $ itt_alleg_vtstateagent             : num  1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
##  $ itt_alleg_vtunst                   : num  15 7 5 12 15 1 13 25 28 27 ...
##  $ itt_LoTUnknown                     : chr  "Widespread" "Several" "Several" "Systematic" ...
##  $ itt_LoTCriminal                    : chr  "Widespread" "Widespread" "Widespread" "Systematic" ...
##  $ itt_LoTDissident                   : chr  "No Allegations" "No Allegations" "No Allegations" "No Allegations" ...
##  $ itt_LoTMarginalized                : chr  "Several" "Several" "Routinely" "Systematic" ...
##  $ itt_LoTStateAgent                  : chr  "No Allegations" "No Allegations" "No Allegations" "No Allegations" ...
##  $ itt_RstrctAccess                   : int  1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
##  $ NY.GDP.MKTP.KD                     : num  10299 10690 11170 11667 12213 ...
##  $ NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG                  : num  2.72 3.8 4.49 4.45 4.69 ...
##  $ NY.GDP.PCAP.KD                     : num  38768 39769 41044 42341 43797 ...
##  $ NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG                  : num  1.59 2.58 3.21 3.16 3.44 ...
##  $ pop                                : num  265659 268803 272137 275543 278862 ...
##  $ ln_NY.GDP.MKTP.KD                  : num  9.24 9.28 9.32 9.36 9.41 ...
##  $ norm_ln_NY.GDP.MKTP.KD             : num  2.72 2.74 2.76 2.78 2.81 ...
##  $ norm_ln_pop                        : num  2.24 2.25 2.25 2.26 2.27 ...
##  $ v2x_elecoff                        : num  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##   ..- attr(*, "label")= chr "Elected officials index"
##   ..- attr(*, "format.stata")= chr "%9.0g"
##  $ v2xel_frefair                      : num  0.907 0.908 0.908 0.91 0.91 ...
##   ..- attr(*, "label")= chr "Clean elections index"
##   ..- attr(*, "format.stata")= chr "%9.0g"
##  $ v2asuffrage                        : num  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ v2x_jucon                          : num  0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 0.935 ...
##   ..- attr(*, "label")= chr "Judicial constraints on the executive index"
##   ..- attr(*, "format.stata")= chr "%9.0g"
##  $ v2xlg_legcon                       : num  0.946 0.946 0.946 0.946 0.946 ...
##   ..- attr(*, "label")= chr "Legislative constraints on the executive index"
##   ..- attr(*, "format.stata")= chr "%9.0g"
##  $ v2clacjust                         : num  1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 1.81 ...
##   ..- attr(*, "label")= chr "Social class equality in respect for civil liberty"
##   ..- attr(*, "format.stata")= chr "%9.0g"
##  $ v2clsocgrp                         : num  0.594 0.594 0.594 0.594 0.594 ...
##   ..- attr(*, "label")= chr "Social group equality in respect for civil liberties"
##   ..- attr(*, "format.stata")= chr "%9.0g"
##  $ v2pepwrses                         : num  0.786 0.786 0.786 0.786 0.786 ...
##   ..- attr(*, "label")= chr "Power distributed by socioeconomic position"
##   ..- attr(*, "format.stata")= chr "%9.0g"
##  $ v2pepwrsoc                         : num  1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 ...
##   ..- attr(*, "label")= chr "Power distributed by social group"
##   ..- attr(*, "format.stata")= chr "%9.0g"
##  $ regime                             : Factor w/ 6 levels "Parliamentary democracy",..: 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ...
##  $ dd_democracy                       : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ LJI                                : num  0.99 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.99 ...
##  $ post.sd                            : num  0.009 0.0084 0.0082 0.0082 0.0089 0.0092 0.0099 0.0107 0.0109 0.0114 ...
##  $ ht_colonial                        : Factor w/ 11 levels "Never colonized",..: 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ mrs_legalsys                       : Factor w/ 4 levels "Civil","Common",..: 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ...
##  $ epr_groups                         : int  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 ...
##  $ epr_elf                            : num  0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 ...
##  $ epr_excluded_groups_count          : int  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 ...
##  $ epr_excluded_group_pop             : num  0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 0.297 ...
##  $ epr_inpower_groups_count           : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ epr_inpower_groups_pop             : num  0.691 0.691 0.691 0.691 0.691 0.691 0.691 0.691 0.691 0.691 ...
##  $ epr_regaut_groups_count            : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ epr_regaut_group_pop               : num  0.0078 0.0078 0.0078 0.0078 0.0078 0.0078 0.0078 0.0078 0.0078 0.0078 ...
##  $ norm_ln1p_epr_excluded_groups_count: num  1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 ...
##  $ norm_sqrt_epr_excluded_group_pop   : num  0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 ...
##  $ internal_confl                     : num  0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ internal_confl_major               : num  0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 ...
##  $ internal_confl_minor               : num  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 ...
##  $ internal_confl_part                : num  0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ internal_confl_part_major          : num  0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 ...
##  $ internal_confl_part_minor          : num  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 ...
##  $ war                                : num  0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 ...
##  $ war_major                          : num  0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 ...
##  $ war_minor                          : num  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
##  $ any_conflict                       : num  0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ any_conflict_major                 : num  0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 ...
##  $ any_conflict_minor                 : num  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 ...
##  $ ext_conf                           : num  0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 ...
##  $ ext_conf_major                     : num  0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 ...
##  $ ext_conf_minor                     : num  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 ...
##  $ gtd_events                         : int  60 35 40 31 53 32 41 33 33 9 ...
##  $ gtd_killed                         : num  178 2 2 4 20 ...
##  $ ccp_torture                        : int  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
##  $ ccp_prerel                         : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ ccp_habcorp                        : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ ccp_dueproc                        : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ ccp_speedtri                       : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ gmfd_functionallyfree              : num  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ igo_n                              : num  90 89 90 91 89 88 89 88 87 87 ...
##  $ igo_total                          : num  323 325 328 337 330 330 323 327 327 327 ...
##  $ igo_p                              : num  0.279 0.274 0.274 0.27 0.27 ...
##  $ NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS                     : num  22.5 22.7 23.4 22.8 23.3 ...
##  $ norm_ln_NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS             : num  -1.63 -1.61 -1.56 -1.6 -1.57 ...
##  $ hro_n                              : num  83 90 97 94 91 110 109 108 107 NA ...
##  $ hro_secloc                         : num  70 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 ...
##  $ year_poly1                         : num  -0.0388 -0.03105 -0.0233 -0.01556 -0.00781 ...
##  $ year_poly2                         : num  0.04167 0.01668 -0.00276 -0.01665 -0.02498 ...
##  $ yy_Unknown                         : logi  TRUE FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE TRUE ...
##  $ yy_Criminal                        : logi  TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE ...
##  $ yy_Dissident                       : logi  FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE ...
##  $ yy_Marginalized                    : logi  FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE FALSE ...
##  $ yy_StateAgent                      : logi  FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE ...
##  - attr(*, "yvars")= chr  "yy_Unknown" "yy_Criminal" "yy_Dissident" "yy_Marginalized" ...

R session info

sessionInfo()
## R version 3.6.1 (2019-07-05)
## Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin15.6.0 (64-bit)
## Running under: macOS Mojave 10.14.6
## 
## Matrix products: default
## BLAS:   /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/3.6/Resources/lib/libRblas.0.dylib
## LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/3.6/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib
## 
## locale:
## [1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8
## 
## attached base packages:
## [1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     
## 
## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
##  [1] compiler_3.6.1  magrittr_1.5    tools_3.6.1     htmltools_0.3.6
##  [5] yaml_2.2.0      Rcpp_1.0.2      stringi_1.4.3   rmarkdown_1.15 
##  [9] knitr_1.25      stringr_1.4.0   xfun_0.9        digest_0.6.21  
## [13] evaluate_0.14