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// Copyright (c) 2009-2010 Satoshi Nakamoto
// Copyright (c) 2009-2021 The Bitcoin Core developers
// Distributed under the MIT software license, see the accompanying
// file COPYING or http://www.opensource.org/licenses/mit-license.php.
#include <policy/fees.h>
#include <clientversion.h>
#include <consensus/amount.h>
#include <fs.h>
#include <logging.h>
#include <policy/feerate.h>
#include <primitives/transaction.h>
#include <random.h>
#include <serialize.h>
#include <streams.h>
#include <sync.h>
#include <tinyformat.h>
#include <txmempool.h>
#include <uint256.h>
#include <util/serfloat.h>
#include <util/system.h>
#include <util/time.h>
#include <algorithm>
#include <cassert>
#include <cmath>
#include <cstddef>
#include <cstdint>
#include <exception>
#include <stdexcept>
#include <utility>
static constexpr double INF_FEERATE = 1e99;
std::string StringForFeeEstimateHorizon(FeeEstimateHorizon horizon)
{
switch (horizon) {
case FeeEstimateHorizon::SHORT_HALFLIFE: return "short";
case FeeEstimateHorizon::MED_HALFLIFE: return "medium";
case FeeEstimateHorizon::LONG_HALFLIFE: return "long";
} // no default case, so the compiler can warn about missing cases
assert(false);
}
namespace {
struct EncodedDoubleFormatter
{
template<typename Stream> void Ser(Stream &s, double v)
{
s << EncodeDouble(v);
}
template<typename Stream> void Unser(Stream& s, double& v)
{
uint64_t encoded;
s >> encoded;
v = DecodeDouble(encoded);
}
};
} // namespace
/**
* We will instantiate an instance of this class to track transactions that were
* included in a block. We will lump transactions into a bucket according to their
* approximate feerate and then track how long it took for those txs to be included in a block
*
* The tracking of unconfirmed (mempool) transactions is completely independent of the
* historical tracking of transactions that have been confirmed in a block.
*/
class TxConfirmStats
{
private:
//Define the buckets we will group transactions into
const std::vector<double>& buckets; // The upper-bound of the range for the bucket (inclusive)
const std::map<double, unsigned int>& bucketMap; // Map of bucket upper-bound to index into all vectors by bucket
// For each bucket X:
// Count the total # of txs in each bucket
// Track the historical moving average of this total over blocks
std::vector<double> txCtAvg;
// Count the total # of txs confirmed within Y blocks in each bucket
// Track the historical moving average of these totals over blocks
std::vector<std::vector<double>> confAvg; // confAvg[Y][X]
// Track moving avg of txs which have been evicted from the mempool
// after failing to be confirmed within Y blocks
std::vector<std::vector<double>> failAvg; // failAvg[Y][X]
// Sum the total feerate of all tx's in each bucket
// Track the historical moving average of this total over blocks
std::vector<double> m_feerate_avg;
// Combine the conf counts with tx counts to calculate the confirmation % for each Y,X
// Combine the total value with the tx counts to calculate the avg feerate per bucket
double decay;
// Resolution (# of blocks) with which confirmations are tracked
unsigned int scale;
// Mempool counts of outstanding transactions
// For each bucket X, track the number of transactions in the mempool
// that are unconfirmed for each possible confirmation value Y
std::vector<std::vector<int> > unconfTxs; //unconfTxs[Y][X]
// transactions still unconfirmed after GetMaxConfirms for each bucket
std::vector<int> oldUnconfTxs;
void resizeInMemoryCounters(size_t newbuckets);
public:
/**
* Create new TxConfirmStats. This is called by BlockPolicyEstimator's
* constructor with default values.
* @param defaultBuckets contains the upper limits for the bucket boundaries
* @param maxPeriods max number of periods to track
* @param decay how much to decay the historical moving average per block
*/
TxConfirmStats(const std::vector<double>& defaultBuckets, const std::map<double, unsigned int>& defaultBucketMap,
unsigned int maxPeriods, double decay, unsigned int scale);
/** Roll the circular buffer for unconfirmed txs*/
void ClearCurrent(unsigned int nBlockHeight);
/**
* Record a new transaction data point in the current block stats
* @param blocksToConfirm the number of blocks it took this transaction to confirm
* @param val the feerate of the transaction
* @warning blocksToConfirm is 1-based and has to be >= 1
*/
void Record(int blocksToConfirm, double val);
/** Record a new transaction entering the mempool*/
unsigned int NewTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, double val);
/** Remove a transaction from mempool tracking stats*/
void removeTx(unsigned int entryHeight, unsigned int nBestSeenHeight,
unsigned int bucketIndex, bool inBlock);
/** Update our estimates by decaying our historical moving average and updating
with the data gathered from the current block */
void UpdateMovingAverages();
/**
* Calculate a feerate estimate. Find the lowest value bucket (or range of buckets
* to make sure we have enough data points) whose transactions still have sufficient likelihood
* of being confirmed within the target number of confirmations
* @param confTarget target number of confirmations
* @param sufficientTxVal required average number of transactions per block in a bucket range
* @param minSuccess the success probability we require
* @param nBlockHeight the current block height
*/
double EstimateMedianVal(int confTarget, double sufficientTxVal,
double minSuccess, unsigned int nBlockHeight,
EstimationResult *result = nullptr) const;
/** Return the max number of confirms we're tracking */
unsigned int GetMaxConfirms() const { return scale * confAvg.size(); }
/** Write state of estimation data to a file*/
void Write(AutoFile& fileout) const;
/**
* Read saved state of estimation data from a file and replace all internal data structures and
* variables with this state.
*/
void Read(AutoFile& filein, int nFileVersion, size_t numBuckets);
};
TxConfirmStats::TxConfirmStats(const std::vector<double>& defaultBuckets,
const std::map<double, unsigned int>& defaultBucketMap,
unsigned int maxPeriods, double _decay, unsigned int _scale)
: buckets(defaultBuckets), bucketMap(defaultBucketMap), decay(_decay), scale(_scale)
{
assert(_scale != 0 && "_scale must be non-zero");
confAvg.resize(maxPeriods);
failAvg.resize(maxPeriods);
for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxPeriods; i++) {
confAvg[i].resize(buckets.size());
failAvg[i].resize(buckets.size());
}
txCtAvg.resize(buckets.size());
m_feerate_avg.resize(buckets.size());
resizeInMemoryCounters(buckets.size());
}
void TxConfirmStats::resizeInMemoryCounters(size_t newbuckets) {
// newbuckets must be passed in because the buckets referred to during Read have not been updated yet.
unconfTxs.resize(GetMaxConfirms());
for (unsigned int i = 0; i < unconfTxs.size(); i++) {
unconfTxs[i].resize(newbuckets);
}
oldUnconfTxs.resize(newbuckets);
}
// Roll the unconfirmed txs circular buffer
void TxConfirmStats::ClearCurrent(unsigned int nBlockHeight)
{
for (unsigned int j = 0; j < buckets.size(); j++) {
oldUnconfTxs[j] += unconfTxs[nBlockHeight % unconfTxs.size()][j];
unconfTxs[nBlockHeight%unconfTxs.size()][j] = 0;
}
}
void TxConfirmStats::Record(int blocksToConfirm, double feerate)
{
// blocksToConfirm is 1-based
if (blocksToConfirm < 1)
return;
int periodsToConfirm = (blocksToConfirm + scale - 1) / scale;
unsigned int bucketindex = bucketMap.lower_bound(feerate)->second;
for (size_t i = periodsToConfirm; i <= confAvg.size(); i++) {
confAvg[i - 1][bucketindex]++;
}
txCtAvg[bucketindex]++;
m_feerate_avg[bucketindex] += feerate;
}
void TxConfirmStats::UpdateMovingAverages()
{
assert(confAvg.size() == failAvg.size());
for (unsigned int j = 0; j < buckets.size(); j++) {
for (unsigned int i = 0; i < confAvg.size(); i++) {
confAvg[i][j] *= decay;
failAvg[i][j] *= decay;
}
m_feerate_avg[j] *= decay;
txCtAvg[j] *= decay;
}
}
// returns -1 on error conditions
double TxConfirmStats::EstimateMedianVal(int confTarget, double sufficientTxVal,
double successBreakPoint, unsigned int nBlockHeight,
EstimationResult *result) const
{
// Counters for a bucket (or range of buckets)
double nConf = 0; // Number of tx's confirmed within the confTarget
double totalNum = 0; // Total number of tx's that were ever confirmed
int extraNum = 0; // Number of tx's still in mempool for confTarget or longer
double failNum = 0; // Number of tx's that were never confirmed but removed from the mempool after confTarget
const int periodTarget = (confTarget + scale - 1) / scale;
const int maxbucketindex = buckets.size() - 1;
// We'll combine buckets until we have enough samples.
// The near and far variables will define the range we've combined
// The best variables are the last range we saw which still had a high
// enough confirmation rate to count as success.
// The cur variables are the current range we're counting.
unsigned int curNearBucket = maxbucketindex;
unsigned int bestNearBucket = maxbucketindex;
unsigned int curFarBucket = maxbucketindex;
unsigned int bestFarBucket = maxbucketindex;
bool foundAnswer = false;
unsigned int bins = unconfTxs.size();
bool newBucketRange = true;
bool passing = true;
EstimatorBucket passBucket;
EstimatorBucket failBucket;
// Start counting from highest feerate transactions
for (int bucket = maxbucketindex; bucket >= 0; --bucket) {
if (newBucketRange) {
curNearBucket = bucket;
newBucketRange = false;
}
curFarBucket = bucket;
nConf += confAvg[periodTarget - 1][bucket];
totalNum += txCtAvg[bucket];
failNum += failAvg[periodTarget - 1][bucket];
for (unsigned int confct = confTarget; confct < GetMaxConfirms(); confct++)
extraNum += unconfTxs[(nBlockHeight - confct) % bins][bucket];
extraNum += oldUnconfTxs[bucket];
// If we have enough transaction data points in this range of buckets,
// we can test for success
// (Only count the confirmed data points, so that each confirmation count
// will be looking at the same amount of data and same bucket breaks)
if (totalNum >= sufficientTxVal / (1 - decay)) {
double curPct = nConf / (totalNum + failNum + extraNum);
// Check to see if we are no longer getting confirmed at the success rate
if (curPct < successBreakPoint) {
if (passing == true) {
// First time we hit a failure record the failed bucket
unsigned int failMinBucket = std::min(curNearBucket, curFarBucket);
unsigned int failMaxBucket = std::max(curNearBucket, curFarBucket);
failBucket.start = failMinBucket ? buckets[failMinBucket - 1] : 0;
failBucket.end = buckets[failMaxBucket];
failBucket.withinTarget = nConf;
failBucket.totalConfirmed = totalNum;
failBucket.inMempool = extraNum;
failBucket.leftMempool = failNum;
passing = false;
}
continue;
}
// Otherwise update the cumulative stats, and the bucket variables
// and reset the counters
else {
failBucket = EstimatorBucket(); // Reset any failed bucket, currently passing
foundAnswer = true;
passing = true;
passBucket.withinTarget = nConf;
nConf = 0;
passBucket.totalConfirmed = totalNum;
totalNum = 0;
passBucket.inMempool = extraNum;
passBucket.leftMempool = failNum;
failNum = 0;
extraNum = 0;
bestNearBucket = curNearBucket;
bestFarBucket = curFarBucket;
newBucketRange = true;
}
}
}
double median = -1;
double txSum = 0;
// Calculate the "average" feerate of the best bucket range that met success conditions
// Find the bucket with the median transaction and then report the average feerate from that bucket
// This is a compromise between finding the median which we can't since we don't save all tx's
// and reporting the average which is less accurate
unsigned int minBucket = std::min(bestNearBucket, bestFarBucket);
unsigned int maxBucket = std::max(bestNearBucket, bestFarBucket);
for (unsigned int j = minBucket; j <= maxBucket; j++) {
txSum += txCtAvg[j];
}
if (foundAnswer && txSum != 0) {
txSum = txSum / 2;
for (unsigned int j = minBucket; j <= maxBucket; j++) {
if (txCtAvg[j] < txSum)
txSum -= txCtAvg[j];
else { // we're in the right bucket
median = m_feerate_avg[j] / txCtAvg[j];
break;
}
}
passBucket.start = minBucket ? buckets[minBucket-1] : 0;
passBucket.end = buckets[maxBucket];
}
// If we were passing until we reached last few buckets with insufficient data, then report those as failed
if (passing && !newBucketRange) {
unsigned int failMinBucket = std::min(curNearBucket, curFarBucket);
unsigned int failMaxBucket = std::max(curNearBucket, curFarBucket);
failBucket.start = failMinBucket ? buckets[failMinBucket - 1] : 0;
failBucket.end = buckets[failMaxBucket];
failBucket.withinTarget = nConf;
failBucket.totalConfirmed = totalNum;
failBucket.inMempool = extraNum;
failBucket.leftMempool = failNum;
}
float passed_within_target_perc = 0.0;
float failed_within_target_perc = 0.0;
if ((passBucket.totalConfirmed + passBucket.inMempool + passBucket.leftMempool)) {
passed_within_target_perc = 100 * passBucket.withinTarget / (passBucket.totalConfirmed + passBucket.inMempool + passBucket.leftMempool);
}
if ((failBucket.totalConfirmed + failBucket.inMempool + failBucket.leftMempool)) {
failed_within_target_perc = 100 * failBucket.withinTarget / (failBucket.totalConfirmed + failBucket.inMempool + failBucket.leftMempool);
}
LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "FeeEst: %d > %.0f%% decay %.5f: feerate: %g from (%g - %g) %.2f%% %.1f/(%.1f %d mem %.1f out) Fail: (%g - %g) %.2f%% %.1f/(%.1f %d mem %.1f out)\n",
confTarget, 100.0 * successBreakPoint, decay,
median, passBucket.start, passBucket.end,
passed_within_target_perc,
passBucket.withinTarget, passBucket.totalConfirmed, passBucket.inMempool, passBucket.leftMempool,
failBucket.start, failBucket.end,
failed_within_target_perc,
failBucket.withinTarget, failBucket.totalConfirmed, failBucket.inMempool, failBucket.leftMempool);
if (result) {
result->pass = passBucket;
result->fail = failBucket;
result->decay = decay;
result->scale = scale;
}
return median;
}
void TxConfirmStats::Write(AutoFile& fileout) const
{
fileout << Using<EncodedDoubleFormatter>(decay);
fileout << scale;
fileout << Using<VectorFormatter<EncodedDoubleFormatter>>(m_feerate_avg);
fileout << Using<VectorFormatter<EncodedDoubleFormatter>>(txCtAvg);
fileout << Using<VectorFormatter<VectorFormatter<EncodedDoubleFormatter>>>(confAvg);
fileout << Using<VectorFormatter<VectorFormatter<EncodedDoubleFormatter>>>(failAvg);
}
void TxConfirmStats::Read(AutoFile& filein, int nFileVersion, size_t numBuckets)
{
// Read data file and do some very basic sanity checking
// buckets and bucketMap are not updated yet, so don't access them
// If there is a read failure, we'll just discard this entire object anyway
size_t maxConfirms, maxPeriods;
// The current version will store the decay with each individual TxConfirmStats and also keep a scale factor
filein >> Using<EncodedDoubleFormatter>(decay);
if (decay <= 0 || decay >= 1) {
throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Decay must be between 0 and 1 (non-inclusive)");
}
filein >> scale;
if (scale == 0) {
throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Scale must be non-zero");
}
filein >> Using<VectorFormatter<EncodedDoubleFormatter>>(m_feerate_avg);
if (m_feerate_avg.size() != numBuckets) {
throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in feerate average bucket count");
}
filein >> Using<VectorFormatter<EncodedDoubleFormatter>>(txCtAvg);
if (txCtAvg.size() != numBuckets) {
throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in tx count bucket count");
}
filein >> Using<VectorFormatter<VectorFormatter<EncodedDoubleFormatter>>>(confAvg);
maxPeriods = confAvg.size();
maxConfirms = scale * maxPeriods;
if (maxConfirms <= 0 || maxConfirms > 6 * 24 * 7) { // one week
throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Must maintain estimates for between 1 and 1008 (one week) confirms");
}
for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxPeriods; i++) {
if (confAvg[i].size() != numBuckets) {
throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in feerate conf average bucket count");
}
}
filein >> Using<VectorFormatter<VectorFormatter<EncodedDoubleFormatter>>>(failAvg);
if (maxPeriods != failAvg.size()) {
throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in confirms tracked for failures");
}
for (unsigned int i = 0; i < maxPeriods; i++) {
if (failAvg[i].size() != numBuckets) {
throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Mismatch in one of failure average bucket counts");
}
}
// Resize the current block variables which aren't stored in the data file
// to match the number of confirms and buckets
resizeInMemoryCounters(numBuckets);
LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Reading estimates: %u buckets counting confirms up to %u blocks\n",
numBuckets, maxConfirms);
}
unsigned int TxConfirmStats::NewTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, double val)
{
unsigned int bucketindex = bucketMap.lower_bound(val)->second;
unsigned int blockIndex = nBlockHeight % unconfTxs.size();
unconfTxs[blockIndex][bucketindex]++;
return bucketindex;
}
void TxConfirmStats::removeTx(unsigned int entryHeight, unsigned int nBestSeenHeight, unsigned int bucketindex, bool inBlock)
{
//nBestSeenHeight is not updated yet for the new block
int blocksAgo = nBestSeenHeight - entryHeight;
if (nBestSeenHeight == 0) // the BlockPolicyEstimator hasn't seen any blocks yet
blocksAgo = 0;
if (blocksAgo < 0) {
LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy error, blocks ago is negative for mempool tx\n");
return; //This can't happen because we call this with our best seen height, no entries can have higher
}
if (blocksAgo >= (int)unconfTxs.size()) {
if (oldUnconfTxs[bucketindex] > 0) {
oldUnconfTxs[bucketindex]--;
} else {
LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy error, mempool tx removed from >25 blocks,bucketIndex=%u already\n",
bucketindex);
}
}
else {
unsigned int blockIndex = entryHeight % unconfTxs.size();
if (unconfTxs[blockIndex][bucketindex] > 0) {
unconfTxs[blockIndex][bucketindex]--;
} else {
LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy error, mempool tx removed from blockIndex=%u,bucketIndex=%u already\n",
blockIndex, bucketindex);
}
}
if (!inBlock && (unsigned int)blocksAgo >= scale) { // Only counts as a failure if not confirmed for entire period
assert(scale != 0);
unsigned int periodsAgo = blocksAgo / scale;
for (size_t i = 0; i < periodsAgo && i < failAvg.size(); i++) {
failAvg[i][bucketindex]++;
}
}
}
// This function is called from CTxMemPool::removeUnchecked to ensure
// txs removed from the mempool for any reason are no longer
// tracked. Txs that were part of a block have already been removed in
// processBlockTx to ensure they are never double tracked, but it is
// of no harm to try to remove them again.
bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::removeTx(uint256 hash, bool inBlock)
{
LOCK(m_cs_fee_estimator);
return _removeTx(hash, inBlock);
}
bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::_removeTx(const uint256& hash, bool inBlock)
{
AssertLockHeld(m_cs_fee_estimator);
std::map<uint256, TxStatsInfo>::iterator pos = mapMemPoolTxs.find(hash);
if (pos != mapMemPoolTxs.end()) {
feeStats->removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex, inBlock);
shortStats->removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex, inBlock);
longStats->removeTx(pos->second.blockHeight, nBestSeenHeight, pos->second.bucketIndex, inBlock);
mapMemPoolTxs.erase(hash);
return true;
} else {
return false;
}
}
CBlockPolicyEstimator::CBlockPolicyEstimator(const fs::path& estimation_filepath)
: m_estimation_filepath{estimation_filepath}, nBestSeenHeight{0}, firstRecordedHeight{0}, historicalFirst{0}, historicalBest{0}, trackedTxs{0}, untrackedTxs{0}
{
static_assert(MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE > 0, "Min feerate must be nonzero");
size_t bucketIndex = 0;
for (double bucketBoundary = MIN_BUCKET_FEERATE; bucketBoundary <= MAX_BUCKET_FEERATE; bucketBoundary *= FEE_SPACING, bucketIndex++) {
buckets.push_back(bucketBoundary);
bucketMap[bucketBoundary] = bucketIndex;
}
buckets.push_back(INF_FEERATE);
bucketMap[INF_FEERATE] = bucketIndex;
assert(bucketMap.size() == buckets.size());
feeStats = std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats>(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MED_BLOCK_PERIODS, MED_DECAY, MED_SCALE));
shortStats = std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats>(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, SHORT_BLOCK_PERIODS, SHORT_DECAY, SHORT_SCALE));
longStats = std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats>(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, LONG_BLOCK_PERIODS, LONG_DECAY, LONG_SCALE));
// If the fee estimation file is present, read recorded estimations
AutoFile est_file{fsbridge::fopen(m_estimation_filepath, "rb")};
if (est_file.IsNull() || !Read(est_file)) {
LogPrintf("Failed to read fee estimates from %s. Continue anyway.\n", fs::PathToString(m_estimation_filepath));
}
}
CBlockPolicyEstimator::~CBlockPolicyEstimator() = default;
void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processTransaction(const CTxMemPoolEntry& entry, bool validFeeEstimate)
{
LOCK(m_cs_fee_estimator);
unsigned int txHeight = entry.GetHeight();
uint256 hash = entry.GetTx().GetHash();
if (mapMemPoolTxs.count(hash)) {
LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy error mempool tx %s already being tracked\n",
hash.ToString());
return;
}
if (txHeight != nBestSeenHeight) {
// Ignore side chains and re-orgs; assuming they are random they don't
// affect the estimate. We'll potentially double count transactions in 1-block reorgs.
// Ignore txs if BlockPolicyEstimator is not in sync with ActiveChain().Tip().
// It will be synced next time a block is processed.
return;
}
// Only want to be updating estimates when our blockchain is synced,
// otherwise we'll miscalculate how many blocks its taking to get included.
if (!validFeeEstimate) {
untrackedTxs++;
return;
}
trackedTxs++;
// Feerates are stored and reported as BTC-per-kb:
CFeeRate feeRate(entry.GetFee(), entry.GetTxSize());
mapMemPoolTxs[hash].blockHeight = txHeight;
unsigned int bucketIndex = feeStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
mapMemPoolTxs[hash].bucketIndex = bucketIndex;
unsigned int bucketIndex2 = shortStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
assert(bucketIndex == bucketIndex2);
unsigned int bucketIndex3 = longStats->NewTx(txHeight, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
assert(bucketIndex == bucketIndex3);
}
bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlockTx(unsigned int nBlockHeight, const CTxMemPoolEntry* entry)
{
AssertLockHeld(m_cs_fee_estimator);
if (!_removeTx(entry->GetTx().GetHash(), true)) {
// This transaction wasn't being tracked for fee estimation
return false;
}
// How many blocks did it take for miners to include this transaction?
// blocksToConfirm is 1-based, so a transaction included in the earliest
// possible block has confirmation count of 1
int blocksToConfirm = nBlockHeight - entry->GetHeight();
if (blocksToConfirm <= 0) {
// This can't happen because we don't process transactions from a block with a height
// lower than our greatest seen height
LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy error Transaction had negative blocksToConfirm\n");
return false;
}
// Feerates are stored and reported as BTC-per-kb:
CFeeRate feeRate(entry->GetFee(), entry->GetTxSize());
feeStats->Record(blocksToConfirm, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
shortStats->Record(blocksToConfirm, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
longStats->Record(blocksToConfirm, (double)feeRate.GetFeePerK());
return true;
}
void CBlockPolicyEstimator::processBlock(unsigned int nBlockHeight,
std::vector<const CTxMemPoolEntry*>& entries)
{
LOCK(m_cs_fee_estimator);
if (nBlockHeight <= nBestSeenHeight) {
// Ignore side chains and re-orgs; assuming they are random
// they don't affect the estimate.
// And if an attacker can re-org the chain at will, then
// you've got much bigger problems than "attacker can influence
// transaction fees."
return;
}
// Must update nBestSeenHeight in sync with ClearCurrent so that
// calls to removeTx (via processBlockTx) correctly calculate age
// of unconfirmed txs to remove from tracking.
nBestSeenHeight = nBlockHeight;
// Update unconfirmed circular buffer
feeStats->ClearCurrent(nBlockHeight);
shortStats->ClearCurrent(nBlockHeight);
longStats->ClearCurrent(nBlockHeight);
// Decay all exponential averages
feeStats->UpdateMovingAverages();
shortStats->UpdateMovingAverages();
longStats->UpdateMovingAverages();
unsigned int countedTxs = 0;
// Update averages with data points from current block
for (const auto& entry : entries) {
if (processBlockTx(nBlockHeight, entry))
countedTxs++;
}
if (firstRecordedHeight == 0 && countedTxs > 0) {
firstRecordedHeight = nBestSeenHeight;
LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy first recorded height %u\n", firstRecordedHeight);
}
LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Blockpolicy estimates updated by %u of %u block txs, since last block %u of %u tracked, mempool map size %u, max target %u from %s\n",
countedTxs, entries.size(), trackedTxs, trackedTxs + untrackedTxs, mapMemPoolTxs.size(),
MaxUsableEstimate(), HistoricalBlockSpan() > BlockSpan() ? "historical" : "current");
trackedTxs = 0;
untrackedTxs = 0;
}
CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateFee(int confTarget) const
{
// It's not possible to get reasonable estimates for confTarget of 1
if (confTarget <= 1)
return CFeeRate(0);
return estimateRawFee(confTarget, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, FeeEstimateHorizon::MED_HALFLIFE);
}
CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateRawFee(int confTarget, double successThreshold, FeeEstimateHorizon horizon, EstimationResult* result) const
{
TxConfirmStats* stats = nullptr;
double sufficientTxs = SUFFICIENT_FEETXS;
switch (horizon) {
case FeeEstimateHorizon::SHORT_HALFLIFE: {
stats = shortStats.get();
sufficientTxs = SUFFICIENT_TXS_SHORT;
break;
}
case FeeEstimateHorizon::MED_HALFLIFE: {
stats = feeStats.get();
break;
}
case FeeEstimateHorizon::LONG_HALFLIFE: {
stats = longStats.get();
break;
}
} // no default case, so the compiler can warn about missing cases
assert(stats);
LOCK(m_cs_fee_estimator);
// Return failure if trying to analyze a target we're not tracking
if (confTarget <= 0 || (unsigned int)confTarget > stats->GetMaxConfirms())
return CFeeRate(0);
if (successThreshold > 1)
return CFeeRate(0);
double median = stats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, sufficientTxs, successThreshold, nBestSeenHeight, result);
if (median < 0)
return CFeeRate(0);
return CFeeRate(llround(median));
}
unsigned int CBlockPolicyEstimator::HighestTargetTracked(FeeEstimateHorizon horizon) const
{
LOCK(m_cs_fee_estimator);
switch (horizon) {
case FeeEstimateHorizon::SHORT_HALFLIFE: {
return shortStats->GetMaxConfirms();
}
case FeeEstimateHorizon::MED_HALFLIFE: {
return feeStats->GetMaxConfirms();
}
case FeeEstimateHorizon::LONG_HALFLIFE: {
return longStats->GetMaxConfirms();
}
} // no default case, so the compiler can warn about missing cases
assert(false);
}
unsigned int CBlockPolicyEstimator::BlockSpan() const
{
if (firstRecordedHeight == 0) return 0;
assert(nBestSeenHeight >= firstRecordedHeight);
return nBestSeenHeight - firstRecordedHeight;
}
unsigned int CBlockPolicyEstimator::HistoricalBlockSpan() const
{
if (historicalFirst == 0) return 0;
assert(historicalBest >= historicalFirst);
if (nBestSeenHeight - historicalBest > OLDEST_ESTIMATE_HISTORY) return 0;
return historicalBest - historicalFirst;
}
unsigned int CBlockPolicyEstimator::MaxUsableEstimate() const
{
// Block spans are divided by 2 to make sure there are enough potential failing data points for the estimate
return std::min(longStats->GetMaxConfirms(), std::max(BlockSpan(), HistoricalBlockSpan()) / 2);
}
/** Return a fee estimate at the required successThreshold from the shortest
* time horizon which tracks confirmations up to the desired target. If
* checkShorterHorizon is requested, also allow short time horizon estimates
* for a lower target to reduce the given answer */
double CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateCombinedFee(unsigned int confTarget, double successThreshold, bool checkShorterHorizon, EstimationResult *result) const
{
double estimate = -1;
if (confTarget >= 1 && confTarget <= longStats->GetMaxConfirms()) {
// Find estimate from shortest time horizon possible
if (confTarget <= shortStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { // short horizon
estimate = shortStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_TXS_SHORT, successThreshold, nBestSeenHeight, result);
}
else if (confTarget <= feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) { // medium horizon
estimate = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, successThreshold, nBestSeenHeight, result);
}
else { // long horizon
estimate = longStats->EstimateMedianVal(confTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, successThreshold, nBestSeenHeight, result);
}
if (checkShorterHorizon) {
EstimationResult tempResult;
// If a lower confTarget from a more recent horizon returns a lower answer use it.
if (confTarget > feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) {
double medMax = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(feeStats->GetMaxConfirms(), SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, successThreshold, nBestSeenHeight, &tempResult);
if (medMax > 0 && (estimate == -1 || medMax < estimate)) {
estimate = medMax;
if (result) *result = tempResult;
}
}
if (confTarget > shortStats->GetMaxConfirms()) {
double shortMax = shortStats->EstimateMedianVal(shortStats->GetMaxConfirms(), SUFFICIENT_TXS_SHORT, successThreshold, nBestSeenHeight, &tempResult);
if (shortMax > 0 && (estimate == -1 || shortMax < estimate)) {
estimate = shortMax;
if (result) *result = tempResult;
}
}
}
}
return estimate;
}
/** Ensure that for a conservative estimate, the DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT is also met
* at 2 * target for any longer time horizons.
*/
double CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateConservativeFee(unsigned int doubleTarget, EstimationResult *result) const
{
double estimate = -1;
EstimationResult tempResult;
if (doubleTarget <= shortStats->GetMaxConfirms()) {
estimate = feeStats->EstimateMedianVal(doubleTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, nBestSeenHeight, result);
}
if (doubleTarget <= feeStats->GetMaxConfirms()) {
double longEstimate = longStats->EstimateMedianVal(doubleTarget, SUFFICIENT_FEETXS, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, nBestSeenHeight, &tempResult);
if (longEstimate > estimate) {
estimate = longEstimate;
if (result) *result = tempResult;
}
}
return estimate;
}
/** estimateSmartFee returns the max of the feerates calculated with a 60%
* threshold required at target / 2, an 85% threshold required at target and a
* 95% threshold required at 2 * target. Each calculation is performed at the
* shortest time horizon which tracks the required target. Conservative
* estimates, however, required the 95% threshold at 2 * target be met for any
* longer time horizons also.
*/
CFeeRate CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimateSmartFee(int confTarget, FeeCalculation *feeCalc, bool conservative) const
{
LOCK(m_cs_fee_estimator);
if (feeCalc) {
feeCalc->desiredTarget = confTarget;
feeCalc->returnedTarget = confTarget;
}
double median = -1;
EstimationResult tempResult;
// Return failure if trying to analyze a target we're not tracking
if (confTarget <= 0 || (unsigned int)confTarget > longStats->GetMaxConfirms()) {
return CFeeRate(0); // error condition
}
// It's not possible to get reasonable estimates for confTarget of 1
if (confTarget == 1) confTarget = 2;
unsigned int maxUsableEstimate = MaxUsableEstimate();
if ((unsigned int)confTarget > maxUsableEstimate) {
confTarget = maxUsableEstimate;
}
if (feeCalc) feeCalc->returnedTarget = confTarget;
if (confTarget <= 1) return CFeeRate(0); // error condition
assert(confTarget > 0); //estimateCombinedFee and estimateConservativeFee take unsigned ints
/** true is passed to estimateCombined fee for target/2 and target so
* that we check the max confirms for shorter time horizons as well.
* This is necessary to preserve monotonically increasing estimates.
* For non-conservative estimates we do the same thing for 2*target, but
* for conservative estimates we want to skip these shorter horizons
* checks for 2*target because we are taking the max over all time
* horizons so we already have monotonically increasing estimates and
* the purpose of conservative estimates is not to let short term
* fluctuations lower our estimates by too much.
*/
double halfEst = estimateCombinedFee(confTarget/2, HALF_SUCCESS_PCT, true, &tempResult);
if (feeCalc) {
feeCalc->est = tempResult;
feeCalc->reason = FeeReason::HALF_ESTIMATE;
}
median = halfEst;
double actualEst = estimateCombinedFee(confTarget, SUCCESS_PCT, true, &tempResult);
if (actualEst > median) {
median = actualEst;
if (feeCalc) {
feeCalc->est = tempResult;
feeCalc->reason = FeeReason::FULL_ESTIMATE;
}
}
double doubleEst = estimateCombinedFee(2 * confTarget, DOUBLE_SUCCESS_PCT, !conservative, &tempResult);
if (doubleEst > median) {
median = doubleEst;
if (feeCalc) {
feeCalc->est = tempResult;
feeCalc->reason = FeeReason::DOUBLE_ESTIMATE;
}
}
if (conservative || median == -1) {
double consEst = estimateConservativeFee(2 * confTarget, &tempResult);
if (consEst > median) {
median = consEst;
if (feeCalc) {
feeCalc->est = tempResult;
feeCalc->reason = FeeReason::CONSERVATIVE;
}
}
}
if (median < 0) return CFeeRate(0); // error condition
return CFeeRate(llround(median));
}
void CBlockPolicyEstimator::Flush() {
FlushUnconfirmed();
AutoFile est_file{fsbridge::fopen(m_estimation_filepath, "wb")};
if (est_file.IsNull() || !Write(est_file)) {
LogPrintf("Failed to write fee estimates to %s. Continue anyway.\n", fs::PathToString(m_estimation_filepath));
}
}
bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::Write(AutoFile& fileout) const
{
try {
LOCK(m_cs_fee_estimator);
fileout << 149900; // version required to read: 0.14.99 or later
fileout << CLIENT_VERSION; // version that wrote the file
fileout << nBestSeenHeight;
if (BlockSpan() > HistoricalBlockSpan()/2) {
fileout << firstRecordedHeight << nBestSeenHeight;
}
else {
fileout << historicalFirst << historicalBest;
}
fileout << Using<VectorFormatter<EncodedDoubleFormatter>>(buckets);
feeStats->Write(fileout);
shortStats->Write(fileout);
longStats->Write(fileout);
}
catch (const std::exception&) {
LogPrintf("CBlockPolicyEstimator::Write(): unable to write policy estimator data (non-fatal)\n");
return false;
}
return true;
}
bool CBlockPolicyEstimator::Read(AutoFile& filein)
{
try {
LOCK(m_cs_fee_estimator);
int nVersionRequired, nVersionThatWrote;
filein >> nVersionRequired >> nVersionThatWrote;
if (nVersionRequired > CLIENT_VERSION) {
throw std::runtime_error(strprintf("up-version (%d) fee estimate file", nVersionRequired));
}
// Read fee estimates file into temporary variables so existing data
// structures aren't corrupted if there is an exception.
unsigned int nFileBestSeenHeight;
filein >> nFileBestSeenHeight;
if (nVersionRequired < 149900) {
LogPrintf("%s: incompatible old fee estimation data (non-fatal). Version: %d\n", __func__, nVersionRequired);
} else { // New format introduced in 149900
unsigned int nFileHistoricalFirst, nFileHistoricalBest;
filein >> nFileHistoricalFirst >> nFileHistoricalBest;
if (nFileHistoricalFirst > nFileHistoricalBest || nFileHistoricalBest > nFileBestSeenHeight) {
throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Historical block range for estimates is invalid");
}
std::vector<double> fileBuckets;
filein >> Using<VectorFormatter<EncodedDoubleFormatter>>(fileBuckets);
size_t numBuckets = fileBuckets.size();
if (numBuckets <= 1 || numBuckets > 1000) {
throw std::runtime_error("Corrupt estimates file. Must have between 2 and 1000 feerate buckets");
}
std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileFeeStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, MED_BLOCK_PERIODS, MED_DECAY, MED_SCALE));
std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileShortStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, SHORT_BLOCK_PERIODS, SHORT_DECAY, SHORT_SCALE));
std::unique_ptr<TxConfirmStats> fileLongStats(new TxConfirmStats(buckets, bucketMap, LONG_BLOCK_PERIODS, LONG_DECAY, LONG_SCALE));
fileFeeStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, numBuckets);
fileShortStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, numBuckets);
fileLongStats->Read(filein, nVersionThatWrote, numBuckets);
// Fee estimates file parsed correctly
// Copy buckets from file and refresh our bucketmap
buckets = fileBuckets;
bucketMap.clear();
for (unsigned int i = 0; i < buckets.size(); i++) {
bucketMap[buckets[i]] = i;
}
// Destroy old TxConfirmStats and point to new ones that already reference buckets and bucketMap
feeStats = std::move(fileFeeStats);
shortStats = std::move(fileShortStats);
longStats = std::move(fileLongStats);
nBestSeenHeight = nFileBestSeenHeight;
historicalFirst = nFileHistoricalFirst;
historicalBest = nFileHistoricalBest;
}
}
catch (const std::exception& e) {
LogPrintf("CBlockPolicyEstimator::Read(): unable to read policy estimator data (non-fatal): %s\n",e.what());
return false;
}
return true;
}
void CBlockPolicyEstimator::FlushUnconfirmed() {
int64_t startclear = GetTimeMicros();
LOCK(m_cs_fee_estimator);
size_t num_entries = mapMemPoolTxs.size();
// Remove every entry in mapMemPoolTxs
while (!mapMemPoolTxs.empty()) {
auto mi = mapMemPoolTxs.begin();
_removeTx(mi->first, false); // this calls erase() on mapMemPoolTxs
}
int64_t endclear = GetTimeMicros();
LogPrint(BCLog::ESTIMATEFEE, "Recorded %u unconfirmed txs from mempool in %gs\n", num_entries, (endclear - startclear)*0.000001);
}
FeeFilterRounder::FeeFilterRounder(const CFeeRate& minIncrementalFee)
{
CAmount minFeeLimit = std::max(CAmount(1), minIncrementalFee.GetFeePerK() / 2);
feeset.insert(0);
for (double bucketBoundary = minFeeLimit; bucketBoundary <= MAX_FILTER_FEERATE; bucketBoundary *= FEE_FILTER_SPACING) {
feeset.insert(bucketBoundary);
}
}
CAmount FeeFilterRounder::round(CAmount currentMinFee)
{
std::set<double>::iterator it = feeset.lower_bound(currentMinFee);
if ((it != feeset.begin() && insecure_rand.rand32() % 3 != 0) || it == feeset.end()) {
it--;
}
return static_cast<CAmount>(*it);
}