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Fix typos in epi figures, address #39

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evogytis committed Nov 8, 2017
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  2. BIN figures/mers_epi_4000c.png
  3. +12 −0 mers-structure.tex
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@@ -261,6 +261,7 @@ \subsection*{MERS-CoV is poorly suited for human transmission}
In these analyses $R_{0}$ values tend to decrease even further as numbers of introductions go up, although very few simulations match currently observed MERS-CoV sequence data (Figure \ref{extra_cases}).
Overall, our analyses indicate that MERS-CoV is poorly suited for human-to-human transmission, with an estimated $R_{0}<0.91$ and sequence sampling likely to be biased towards large hospital outbreaks.
All matching simulations exhibit highly skewed distributions of case cluster sizes with long tails (Figure \ref{cluster_distributions}), which is qualitatively similar to the results of \citep{cauchemez_unraveling_2016}.
Given these findings, and the fact that large outbreaks of MERS occurred in hospitals, the combination of frequent spillover of MERS-CoV into humans and occasional outbreak amplification via poor hygiene practices \citep{assiri_hospital_2013,chen_comparative_2017} appear sufficient to explain observed epidemiological patterns of MERS-CoV.
@@ -1033,6 +1034,17 @@ \section*{Acknowledgements}
\label{marginals}
\end{figure}
\begin{figure}[h]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=0.65\textwidth]{figures/mers_distributions.png}
\caption{\textbf{Boxplots of matching simulated case and sequence cluster distributions.}
Boxplots indicate frequency of case (blue, top) and sequence (red, bottom) cluster sizes across simulations at different bias levels, marginalised across $R_{0}$ values.
Outliers are shown with transparency, medians are indicated with thick black lines.
Case clusters exhibit a strong skew with large numbers of singleton introductions and a substantial tail at higher levels of bias.
}
\label{cluster_distributions}
\end{figure}
\begin{figure}[h]
\centering
\includegraphics[width=0.65\textwidth]{figures/mers_epi_4000c.png}

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