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4d6ed4c Jan 28, 2018
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"""A simple coin flipping example. Inspired by Stan's toy example.
"""
from __future__ import absolute_import
from __future__ import division
from __future__ import print_function
import edward as ed
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import tensorflow as tf
from edward.models import Bernoulli, Beta, Empirical
def main(_):
ed.set_seed(42)
# DATA
x_data = np.array([0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1])
# MODEL
p = Beta(1.0, 1.0)
x = Bernoulli(probs=p, sample_shape=10)
# INFERENCE
qp = Empirical(params=tf.get_variable(
"qp/params", [1000], initializer=tf.constant_initializer(0.5)))
proposal_p = Beta(3.0, 9.0)
inference = ed.MetropolisHastings({p: qp}, {p: proposal_p}, data={x: x_data})
inference.run()
# CRITICISM
# exact posterior has mean 0.25 and std 0.12
sess = ed.get_session()
mean, stddev = sess.run([qp.mean(), qp.stddev()])
print("Inferred posterior mean:")
print(mean)
print("Inferred posterior stddev:")
print(stddev)
x_post = ed.copy(x, {p: qp})
tx_rep, tx = ed.ppc(
lambda xs, zs: tf.reduce_mean(tf.cast(xs[x_post], tf.float32)),
data={x_post: x_data})
ed.ppc_stat_hist_plot(
tx[0], tx_rep, stat_name=r'$T \equiv$mean', bins=10)
plt.show()
if __name__ == "__main__":
tf.app.run()