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This repo containts my entry for Imperial create lab's summerdatachallenge. The challenge was to apply data science techniques to one or more of their supplied datasets. I chose London house prices, listings for all house sales within 100 km of the City of London from 2009 up to 2014.

A short written report can be found under report/sdc_report.pdf and there's an accompanying site at blm.io/datarea.

How to run

Clone the github repository or download as a zip archive then run as described below. Note that the competition data is not included in this repository due to its terms of use, so to run these analyses you must first place the file Houseprice_2009_100km_London.csv (137 MB) in directory houseprices/. Scripts are all in the R directory, so can then be run with e.g. Rscript R/fractal_context.R, but are best played with interactively through an R IDE such as RStudio.

The main scripts are briefly described here, more information is available in source code comments:

  • fractal_context.R generates a series of visualisations (namely plots/FC*) that relate a specific area to its neighbouring sector, district and area in terms of, is it the most or least expensive in a given locale? An outlier? Unexpectedly underpriced? Figures FC0-4 were combined for the final report using inkscape.
  • arima_model.R — after some background work, fits AR|I|MA models to house price time series and plots the forecast of a given sector (plots/forecast.pdf) as well as a random selection for comparison (plots/grid_forecasts.svg).
  • investment_grade.R — fits ARIMA models to all sectors in dataset (2500+?) and calculates historical volatility to be combined into an investment grade. Saves the top 5 sectors (plots/top5_investments.svg) and a summary dataframe R object (rds/invest_grade.rds).

Other more minor scripts include:

  • postcode_map.R — draws a series of monthly png bitmap images then stitches them together into animated gifs (via ImageMagick commandline) to show the entire dataset of house sales over time.
  • interactive.R — builds the basic javascript plots using rCharts (and dimple.js) of investment grading used online.
  • report_viz.R— just draws the introductory overview map (plots/report_overview.pdf)for the written report.
  • gmap.R — outputs a csv (gmap/fusion_kml.csv) for use with fusion tables and the Google Maps API in order to build the interactive map overlay shown in the online report.

The directory wip/ contains work in progress scripts or analyses that didn't make the final report. writeup/ contains a version of the online report (current version at: blm.io/datarea) and report/ contains the LaTeX written report.


Below is the output of sessionInfo() which shows loaded package versions, the OS and R version (3.1.1) under which these scripts were written. For CRAN snapshots, these analyses were performed around mid October 2014.

R version 3.1.1 (2014-07-10)
Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin13.1.0 (64-bit)

[1] en_GB.UTF-8/en_GB.UTF-8/en_GB.UTF-8/C/en_GB.UTF-8/en_GB.UTF-8

attached base packages:
[1] grid      stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     

other attached packages:
 [1] rgeos_0.3-6      maptools_0.8-30  mapdata_2.2-3    maps_2.3-9       gpclib_1.5-5    
 [6] gridExtra_0.9.1  ggplot2_1.0.0    forecast_5.6     timeDate_3010.98 zoo_1.7-11      
[11] dplyr_0.3.0.2    sp_1.0-15       

loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
 [1] assertthat_0.1   codetools_0.2-9  colorspace_1.2-4 DBI_0.3.1        digest_0.6.4    
 [6] foreign_0.8-61   fracdiff_1.4-2   gtable_0.1.2     lattice_0.20-29  magrittr_1.0.1  
[11] MASS_7.3-35      munsell_0.4.2    nnet_7.3-8       parallel_3.1.1   plyr_1.8.1      
[16] proto_0.3-10     quadprog_1.5-5   rCharts_0.4.5    Rcpp_0.11.3      reshape2_1.4    
[21] RJSONIO_1.3-0    scales_0.2.4     stringr_0.6.2    tools_3.1.1      tseries_0.10-32 
[26] whisker_0.3-2    yaml_2.1.13