Using publicly available poll data to get voter probabilities, run simulations of the US election in each of the 50 states, and use the results of the simulation to forecast probabilities for a Democratic/Republican win in the 2012 election.
To use the model, run
master in Matlab. Sample output (4th November 2012)
EDU>> master Simulating: Alabama Simulating: Alaska . . (etc) . Simulating: Wisconsin Simulating: Wyoming Results: P(Dem win) = 99.46% P(GOP win) = 0.49% P(Tie) = 0.06%