Assessing the usefulness of neural networks for political instability forecasting
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Deep Learning Leader


This repository contains code for the project my ongoing project exploring the usefulness of modern, `deep', neural networks for forecasting political instability. I still need to do more work related to interpretability (e.g. variable importance and partial dependence plots) and explore different hyper parameter settings for networks with more than 1 hidden layer.


R/: Contains code for different models and plots

python/: Contains code for different neural network models, estimated in Keras

data/: Contains dataset from Ward et al. (2015) article on irregular leadership changes

plots/: Contains figures

poster/: Contains poster presented at the 2016 Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology