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README.md

Ensemble Machine Learning Modeling for the Prediction of Artemisinin Resistance in Malaria

By: Colby T. Ford, Ph.D., Tamar Carter, Ph.D., and Daniel Janies, Ph.D.

Table of Contents

Malaria DREAM Challenge 2019

🦟 👨‍🔬 🧬

Submission by: Colby T. Ford, Ph.D.

About the Challenge

Challenge Link

The Malaria DREAM Challenge is open to anyone interested in contributing to the development of computational models that address important problems in advancing the fight against malaria. The overall goal of the first Malaria DREAM Challenge is to predict Artemisinin (Art) drug resistance level of a test set of malaria parasites using their in vitro transcription data and a training set consisting of published in vivo and unpublished in vitro transcriptomes. The in vivo dataset consists of ~1000 transcription samples from various geographic locations covering a wide range of life cycles and resistance levels, with other accompanying data such as patient age, geographic location, Art combination therapy used, etc. [Mok et al., (2015) Science]. The in vitro transcription dataset consists of 55 isolates, with transcription collected at two timepoints (6 and 24 hours post-invasion), in the absence or presence of an Art perturbation, for two biological replicates using a custom microarray at the Ferdig lab. Using these transcription datasets, participants will be asked to predict three different resistance states of a subset of the 55 in vitro isolate samples.

Overall Modeling Approach

See: https://github.com/colbyford/malaria_DREAM2019/raw/master/process.png

Data Preprocessing: Using Apache Spark (Specifically v2.4.3 on Azure Databricks v5.4), the input training data from Synapse (SubChX_TrainingData.csv) was loaded from Azure Blob Storage into the Spark environment. Spark was used for data reshaping, including the casting/pivoting of the data in SubChallenge 1 and the omission of unneeded variables in both SubChallenges. In addition, Spark was utilized to vectorize the datasets for use in distributed machine learning model training. As these training datasets are highly dimensional, Spark can parallelize the vectorization exercises across nodes of a cluster, reducing the time it took to get the vectorized output data.

Machine Learning Modeling: Numerous machine learning models were trained for each SubChallenge, using various scaling techniques and algorithms (AutoML). Microsoft Azure Machine Learning Service was utilized as the tracking platform for retaining model performance metrics as the various models were generated. Ensembling of multiple models was also tested, usually resulting in a better overall model. The ensembling method used was the Caruana ensemble selection algorithm.

Subchallenge 1

Topic: Predict the Artemisinin (Art) IC50 (drug concentration at which 50% of parasites die) of malaria isolates using in vitro transcriptomics data.

Data: Transcription profiles of all 55 malaria parasite isolates along with the IC50 (drug concentration at which 50% of parasites die) values.

  • Training set: 30 malaria parasite isolates
  • Test Set: 25 malaria parasite isolates.

The transcription data consists of 5540 genes from the malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. For each malaria parasite isolate, transcription data was collected at two time points (6 hours post invasion (hpi) and 24hpi), perturbed and un-perturbed with dihydroartemisinin (the metabolically active form of artemisinin), with a biological replicate each, for a grand total of at least eight data points per parasite isolate.

(Adapted with permission from Turnbull et al., (2017) PLoS One) Training Set Test Set
Array Bozdech Agilent HD Exon Array
Platform Printed Agilent
Plexes 1 8
Unique Probes 10159 62976
Range of Probes per Exon N/A 1-52
Average Probes per Gene 2 12
Genes Represented 5363 5440
Transcript Isoform Profiling No Yes
ncRNAs No Yes
Channel Detection Method Two Color Single Color
Scanner PowerScanner Agilent
Data Extraction GenePix Pro Agilent

Subchallenge 1 Final Submission

Data Preprocessing: Casted data to roll up to the Isolate grain. Instead of having multiple rows for an isolate, each with various Timepoints, Treatments, and BioReps, this was pivoted such that each row represents a single isolate. So, each numerical column turns into 8 columns, one version for each slice of 2 Timepoints, 2 Treatments, and 2 BioReps. This resulted in a dataset with 44,346 columns.

Training Parameters: The following are the training parameters for the Azure Machine Learning Service:

Parameter Value
Task Regression
Number of Iterations 500
Iteration Timeout (minutes) 20
Max Cores per Iteration 7
Primary Metric Normalized Root Mean Squared Error
Preprocess Data? True
k-Fold Cross-Validations 20 folds

Model: Voting Ensemble model (using soft voting) of 498 previous models (including models trained using Extreme Random Trees, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Elastic Net, and Lasso Least Angle Regression), each having been trained on pre-processed data using various steps (including imputation, normalization, and scaling).

SubChallenge 1 Model Information:

Model Date: 7/31/2019

Platform: Azure Machine Learning Service

Best Model: VotingEnsemble

Model Description: Using previous iterations of the machine learning model training, a SoftVoting Ensemble model was created. This uses the average of the class probabilities of previous iterations.

Metric Value
normalized_root_mean_squared_error 0.1228
spearman_correlation -0.2
root_mean_squared_log_error 0.1336
normalized_mean_absolute_error 0.1097
mean_absolute_percentage_error 24.27
r2_score -0.1461
normalized_median_absolute_error 0.1097
root_mean_squared_error 0.3398
explained_variance -1.755
normalized_root_mean_squared_log_error 0.1379
median_absolute_error 0.3035
mean_absolute_error 0.3035

All Previous Iterations:

ITERATION RUN_PREPROCESSOR RUN_ALGORITHM NORMALIZED_ROOT_MEAN_SQUARED_ERROR
498 VotingEnsemble 0.12283293
370 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.132003138
432 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.133180215
240 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.133779391
430 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.137084337
65 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.13884791
56 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.14417843
68 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.151925822
470 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.152262231
181 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.15279075
441 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.154242112
146 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.154765718
269 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.155926785
148 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.156469078
195 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.156832998
177 SparseNormalizer LightGBM 0.156868761
483 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.157322286
97 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.157341412
221 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.157344169
342 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.157355502
401 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.157370636
225 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.157746614
169 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.158444403
55 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.15888225
63 SparseNormalizer LightGBM 0.159163354
253 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.159226125
38 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.15939807
57 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.159511359
207 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.15972357
217 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.159911304
386 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.160045568
313 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.160488808
270 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.160635674
385 TruncatedSVDWrapper RandomForest 0.160640259
369 MinMaxScaler GradientBoosting 0.160913975
48 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.160951856
0 RobustScaler ElasticNet 0.161583928
35 StandardScalerWrapper ElasticNet 0.161583928
499 StackEnsemble 0.161583928
16 StandardScalerWrapper ElasticNet 0.161729381
309 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.161854681
161 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.161871201
407 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.162073958
347 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.162089424
230 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.162145042
262 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.162193706
21 StandardScalerWrapper ElasticNet 0.162318961
196 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.162434403
30 MaxAbsScaler ElasticNet 0.162438888
408 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.16248918
64 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.162541441
326 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.162724319
300 PCA RandomForest 0.162841003
185 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.162942257
294 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.162987298
53 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.163408663
379 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.163544922
265 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.163570788
352 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.163583341
200 TruncatedSVDWrapper RandomForest 0.16394081
344 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.164164669
246 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.164214501
45 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.164775009
362 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.164813327
317 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.164832763
128 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.16489587
275 TruncatedSVDWrapper RandomForest 0.164973758
131 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.165040416
321 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.165341668
223 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.165372259
365 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.16541378
147 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.165442899
212 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.165761688
40 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.165783768
256 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.165842417
123 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.165957073
494 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.166025767
219 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.166296437
289 MinMaxScaler GradientBoosting 0.166318337
120 TruncatedSVDWrapper RandomForest 0.166421551
87 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.166567654
395 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.166584276
176 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.166584841
47 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.166667434
288 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.166676087
70 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.166812176
110 TruncatedSVDWrapper RandomForest 0.166861419
387 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.166867162
445 PCA RandomForest 0.16691194
400 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.167127388
471 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.167163878
99 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.167178832
271 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.167260508
373 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.167466557
297 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.16748517
364 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.167493127
104 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.167510183
374 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.167529195
23 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.16757886
136 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.167692986
363 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.16789355
282 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.167903461
396 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.167915082
36 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.167916353
463 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.168026061
43 MinMaxScaler GradientBoosting 0.168196455
335 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.168237765
150 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.168305929
211 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.168609919
466 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.168626485
179 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.168710466
208 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.168756276
71 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.168966696
461 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.169014953
117 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.169108334
457 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.169227418
152 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.169306795
89 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.169307528
100 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.169323732
118 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.169377771
251 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.169457188
190 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.169457405
29 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.169535205
143 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.169600153
296 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.169615949
114 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.169755714
427 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.169768327
138 SparseNormalizer LightGBM 0.169846711
130 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.169887666
292 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.169965588
84 SparseNormalizer ExtremeRandomTrees 0.17002492
380 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.170083227
140 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.1701403
345 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.170213164
95 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.170347557
156 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.170362745
358 MinMaxScaler GradientBoosting 0.170440465
247 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.170542682
60 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.170593492
325 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.170658126
456 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.170722151
468 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.170821843
482 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.170895322
239 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.170899922
266 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.170902101
168 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.17090634
278 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.171016306
209 RobustScaler GradientBoosting 0.171378809
80 TruncatedSVDWrapper RandomForest 0.171433269
112 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.171434094
192 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.171466942
137 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.171533691
419 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.171616533
405 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.171624986
375 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.171627256
51 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.171707376
487 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.171718804
105 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.171741383
467 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.171842874
475 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.172041647
346 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.172118192
473 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.172133297
399 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.172162184
486 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.172176668
224 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.172213036
429 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.172292827
403 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.172353308
4 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.172373695
493 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.172485121
469 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.172521024
384 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.172579395
431 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.172606539
423 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.172666405
350 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.172764823
295 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.172820501
303 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.172864886
249 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.172940215
222 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.172956265
31 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.172969647
201 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.173042778
422 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.173049985
215 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.173184592
485 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.173220933
127 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.173361529
442 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.173387536
188 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.17340466
142 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.173501317
280 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.173552374
398 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.173603635
213 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.173605882
361 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.173652506
359 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.173721412
119 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.173736256
404 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.173744704
425 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.173748066
333 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.173755466
83 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.173805355
153 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.173814819
151 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.173908442
438 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174001407
149 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174049679
428 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.174083172
98 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.174091103
413 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174127523
157 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174166226
286 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174187187
202 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174209704
443 RobustScaler GradientBoosting 0.174247327
409 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174250055
458 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.174261671
290 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.17427183
134 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174383201
107 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.174569934
465 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.174623865
392 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.174714883
26 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174720517
287 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174724236
133 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174812605
302 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.174829146
327 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.174842679
78 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.174847739
393 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.174850228
310 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.174860231
453 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.174861994
82 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174888596
454 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174894184
206 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.174894844
418 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.174895302
433 StandardScalerWrapper KNN 0.174910718
242 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.174931339
279 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.175052279
307 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.175053944
180 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.175055737
355 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.175109318
90 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.175134294
437 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.175175786
175 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.175233475
46 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.175248442
472 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.175295191
139 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.175305444
338 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.175322152
24 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.175376339
69 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.175376749
339 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.17538851
394 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.175413013
184 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.175445679
73 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.175462963
93 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.175498166
199 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.175632165
94 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.175673316
478 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.175874329
144 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.17588299
252 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.175915641
440 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.175918695
193 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.175943794
415 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.176028671
397 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.17605315
389 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.176064544
34 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.176230035
154 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.176340521
311 RobustScaler GradientBoosting 0.176377347
263 MinMaxScaler GradientBoosting 0.176383021
378 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.176418819
1 StandardScalerWrapper ElasticNet 0.176553009
426 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.176630817
81 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.17663726
245 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.176783719
477 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.176875732
159 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.176885249
377 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.176917413
319 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.1769424
76 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.176972873
238 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.176990051
210 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.177039704
368 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.177065928
312 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.177124989
234 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.177160391
61 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.177307862
141 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.177413563
268 SparseNormalizer ExtremeRandomTrees 0.177457569
111 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.177590302
66 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.177739728
50 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.177768112
229 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.177827641
383 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.177851583
291 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.178202569
484 StandardScalerWrapper KNN 0.178374988
75 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.17845734
372 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.178505147
109 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.178583584
115 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.178597171
226 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.178599049
233 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.178646236
447 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.178725534
490 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.178790368
11 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.179004822
462 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.17900803
323 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.179177306
244 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.179221838
496 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.179244947
298 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.179279888
330 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.179307334
59 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.179374745
281 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.179418045
72 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.17943037
124 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.179483664
341 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.179593337
32 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.179735268
164 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.17979062
455 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.179800881
88 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.179804518
340 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.179908987
236 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.179921396
216 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.179965443
172 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.179986647
479 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.180050635
336 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.180066692
267 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.180067514
241 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.180116246
450 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.180129457
203 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.18013079
42 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.180228765
235 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.180230615
406 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.180329045
382 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.180384471
332 RobustScaler GradientBoosting 0.180475793
417 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.18052427
315 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.180526435
96 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.180625406
351 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.180626825
284 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.180643822
283 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.180706343
162 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.180707564
160 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.180749311
293 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.180832944
183 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.180847271
320 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.180900539
165 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.181145369
125 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.181178918
348 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.181223413
171 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.181389063
449 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.181401615
54 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.181402212
390 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.181472106
158 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.181475852
318 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.181548546
255 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.181647663
306 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.181727486
33 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.181730245
388 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.181737204
424 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.181787448
260 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.181807747
448 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.181892752
220 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.181967743
166 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.182130089
194 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.182191044
446 MinMaxScaler GradientBoosting 0.182205876
460 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.182306616
77 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.182756477
67 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.182840651
3 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.182953506
497 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.183203312
106 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.183222424
495 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.183545871
113 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.183684643
58 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.1837037
135 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.183814066
420 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.183858358
101 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.18392998
459 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.183957374
337 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.183983511
170 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.184022677
227 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.184109421
444 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.184199864
191 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.184254499
434 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.184298507
410 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.184377625
328 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.184560212
108 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.184592308
301 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.184695991
451 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.184705201
103 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.184852621
132 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.184857528
27 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.185017986
62 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.185083973
116 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.185128156
353 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.185161979
37 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.185174195
411 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.185198722
17 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.185290556
91 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.18545762
204 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.185461197
182 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.185778489
39 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.185979868
474 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.18602163
439 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.186099541
452 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.186103613
178 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.186110936
334 SparseNormalizer ExtremeRandomTrees 0.186179484
197 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.186191545
174 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.186448417
331 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.186688484
25 MaxAbsScaler ElasticNet 0.18680528
79 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.186834916
491 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.187016966
205 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.187057113
314 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.187176735
476 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.187198871
381 RobustScaler GradientBoosting 0.187296314
218 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.187305596
145 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.18736367
436 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.18736767
488 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.18737676
356 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.187499704
126 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.18752192
214 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.187766633
305 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.187980481
492 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.188146348
264 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.188398363
367 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.188517146
480 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.188549781
349 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.188562296
308 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.188748603
122 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.188938278
376 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.189136382
273 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.189482366
189 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.189540998
304 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.189595172
274 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.189596277
74 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.189679123
276 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.189690955
435 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.18978274
329 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.189997904
391 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.190006797
248 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.190313116
41 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.190364881
412 MinMaxScaler GradientBoosting 0.190436705
243 RobustScaler RandomForest 0.190605952
257 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.190714921
272 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.190793936
129 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.190979994
464 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.191070938
28 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.191122537
254 SparseNormalizer GradientBoosting 0.191329849
299 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.191417043
421 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.192179948
371 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.192392426
258 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.192411123
360 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.192436778
489 SparseNormalizer LightGBM 0.192641881
8 MaxAbsScaler DecisionTree 0.193020019
44 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.193363433
167 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.193871403
261 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.195117539
324 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.19583183
10 StandardScalerWrapper DecisionTree 0.196590878
414 MaxAbsScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.197089097
357 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.197132361
12 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.197214567
85 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.19751637
52 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.197834508
285 SparseNormalizer RandomForest 0.19797267
7 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.198537452
277 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.199833488
481 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.199847538
354 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.203411818
155 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.203652532
250 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.204483954
14 StandardScalerWrapper ElasticNet 0.204714308
231 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.205107758
86 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.206573894
186 StandardScalerWrapper DecisionTree 0.20802764
366 MinMaxScaler DecisionTree 0.209525874
232 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.209941397
121 StandardScalerWrapper GradientBoosting 0.210084717
343 MinMaxScaler GradientBoosting 0.21036495
2 StandardScalerWrapper ElasticNet 0.212042108
6 MinMaxScaler DecisionTree 0.212432524
163 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.214360431
19 StandardScalerWrapper ElasticNet 0.216964702
228 RobustScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.21968984
20 TruncatedSVDWrapper ElasticNet 0.220103076
15 StandardScalerWrapper ElasticNet 0.221044137
259 SparseNormalizer DecisionTree 0.222488814
22 TruncatedSVDWrapper ElasticNet 0.222790169
18 MinMaxScaler DecisionTree 0.228681804
173 MinMaxScaler DecisionTree 0.230437233
237 MinMaxScaler SGD 0.231384017
402 StandardScalerWrapper DecisionTree 0.232003166
322 RobustScaler DecisionTree 0.232166047
187 MinMaxScaler DecisionTree 0.232705011
13 StandardScalerWrapper ElasticNet 0.235524912
49 StandardScalerWrapper DecisionTree 0.237119485
92 RobustScaler DecisionTree 0.241947998
9 MinMaxScaler DecisionTree 0.253827356
102 MinMaxScaler DecisionTree 0.256963716
5 StandardScalerWrapper LassoLars 0.260923169
198 RobustScaler DecisionTree 0.279708013
416 MaxAbsScaler DecisionTree 0.285545245
316 StandardScalerWrapper KNN nan

Subchallenge 2

Topic: Utilizing a previously published in vivo transcription data set from Mok et al,. Science 2015, predict the resistance status of malaria isolates utilizing in vitro transcription data.

Data: in vivo transcription data set (Mok et al,. Science 2015) to predict the parasite clearance rate of malaria parasite isolates based on in vitro transcriptional profiles.

Training Set Test Set
Dataset Published from Mok et al,. Science 2015 Unpublished
Number of Isolates 1043 32
Isolate Collection Site Southeast Asia Thai-Myanmar Border
Isolate Collection Years 2012-2014 2007-2012
Sample Type in vivo in vitro
Synchronized? Not Synchronized Synchronized
Number of Samples per Isolate 1 8
Additional Attributes ~18 Hours Post Invasion (hpi), Non-perturbed, No replicates Two time points (6 hpi and 24 hpi), Perturbed and Non-perturbed, Biological Replicate

Subchallenge 2 Final Submission

Data Preprocessing: None, except removal of certain attributes. (Country - test data only contains "Thailand_Myanmar_Border", which isn't in the training data, Kmeans_Grp - not included in the testing data, and Asexual_stage__hpi_ - testing data has different stages.)

Training Parameters: The following are the training parameters for the Azure Machine Learning Service:

Parameter Value
Task Classification
Number of Iterations 100
Iteration Timeout (minutes) 20
Max Cores per Iteration 14
Primary Metric Weighted AUC
Preprocess Data? True
k-Fold Cross-Validations 10 folds

Model: Voting Ensemble model (using soft voting) of 98 previous models (including models trained using Logistic Regression, SVM, Gradient Boosting, SGD, Naïve Bayes, KNN, Random Forests, and Extreme Random Trees), each having been trained on pre-processed data using various steps (including imputation, normalization, and scaling).

Model Information

Model Date: 7/31/2019

Platform: Azure Machine Learning Service

Best Model: VotingEnsemble

Model Description: Using previous iterations of the machine learning model training, a SoftVoting Ensemble model was created. This uses the average of the class probabilities of previous iterations.

Metric Accuracy
f1_score_macro 0.6084
AUC_micro 0.9445
AUC_macro 0.8475
recall_score_micro 0.8101
recall_score_weighted 0.8101
average_precision_score_weighted 0.8707
weighted_accuracy 0.8585
precision_score_macro 0.6217
precision_score_micro 0.8101
balanced_accuracy 0.6027
log_loss 0.4455
recall_score_macro 0.6027
precision_score_weighted 0.8
AUC_weighted 0.8705
average_precision_score_micro 0.8911
f1_score_weighted 0.8019
f1_score_micro 0.8101
norm_macro_recall 0.354
average_precision_score_macro 0.7344
accuracy 0.8101

Confusion Matrix

True\Pred 0 1 2
0 661 74 0
1 115 184 0
2 6 3 0

All Previous Iterations:

ITERATION RUN_PREPROCESSOR RUN_ALGORITHM AUC_WEIGHTED
98 VotingEnsemble 0.870471056
99 StackEnsemble 0.865215516
65 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.86062304
33 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.859881677
97 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.858791006
44 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.856105491
73 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.855502817
17 RobustScaler SVM 0.855452622
43 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.855368394
61 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.854357599
21 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.854352919
50 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.854271919
76 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.854138203
27 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.853683531
88 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.853545166
26 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.852415532
37 TruncatedSVDWrapper LogisticRegression 0.85221177
81 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.851581173
45 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.851506849
54 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.851398541
82 TruncatedSVDWrapper LogisticRegression 0.851126263
72 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.851049949
79 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.851018179
86 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.850750784
71 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.850640655
66 SparseNormalizer LogisticRegression 0.849491634
92 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.84938126
24 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.848420725
84 RobustScaler LinearSVM 0.848152508
56 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.848021306
75 RobustScaler LogisticRegression 0.847751321
57 MaxAbsScaler LogisticRegression 0.845523427
95 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.844397139
53 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.844102598
67 TruncatedSVDWrapper LogisticRegression 0.843800432
74 SparseNormalizer LogisticRegression 0.843712149
22 MaxAbsScaler LogisticRegression 0.843654091
83 TruncatedSVDWrapper LogisticRegression 0.843541572
49 MaxAbsScaler LogisticRegression 0.843507898
80 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.843064786
18 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.843022237
47 RobustScaler LightGBM 0.842506023
29 RobustScaler LinearSVM 0.841886734
59 TruncatedSVDWrapper LogisticRegression 0.840557865
32 RobustScaler LinearSVM 0.840290047
60 PCA LogisticRegression 0.839967305
31 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.838920218
51 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.837486895
85 TruncatedSVDWrapper LogisticRegression 0.837383394
62 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.837110668
87 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.837097803
90 TruncatedSVDWrapper LogisticRegression 0.836835098
68 MinMaxScaler LogisticRegression 0.836478087
34 TruncatedSVDWrapper LogisticRegression 0.835800612
12 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.835284383
36 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.834583074
8 StandardScalerWrapper SGD 0.834314309
94 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.834179993
46 MaxAbsScaler LinearSVM 0.834053264
63 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.833803809
23 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.83363186
58 MaxAbsScaler LinearSVM 0.832909387
96 StandardScalerWrapper LogisticRegression 0.83215075
78 MaxAbsScaler GradientBoosting 0.830390117
16 MinMaxScaler SVM 0.830325182
0 StandardScalerWrapper SGD 0.827602503
41 MinMaxScaler SVM 0.826022547
69 TruncatedSVDWrapper LinearSVM 0.825353557
35 MaxAbsScaler LogisticRegression 0.823008572
70 MinMaxScaler LogisticRegression 0.822648165
38 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.82206555
64 RobustScaler GradientBoosting 0.821621848
25 TruncatedSVDWrapper SVM 0.820205555
5 StandardScalerWrapper LightGBM 0.819725881
2 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.819564758
9 MinMaxScaler SGD 0.819551222
30 RobustScaler SVM 0.818433136
55 MinMaxScaler LogisticRegression 0.817255009
91 MinMaxScaler LogisticRegression 0.816844835
89 MaxAbsScaler SVM 0.816578056
6 StandardScalerWrapper SGD 0.811688321
1 StandardScalerWrapper SGD 0.80559481
42 RobustScaler GradientBoosting 0.802210742
3 StandardScalerWrapper SGD 0.800184053
39 MaxAbsScaler RandomForest 0.797587204
28 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.793047181
52 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.789606687
11 MaxAbsScaler LightGBM 0.789403722
4 StandardScalerWrapper ExtremeRandomTrees 0.779719545
14 MinMaxScaler LightGBM 0.777246393
19 RobustScaler SVM 0.762799099
13 MinMaxScaler ExtremeRandomTrees 0.751820414
77 StandardScalerWrapper KNN 0.743536371
93 StandardScalerWrapper RandomForest 0.740452619
48 RobustScaler KNN 0.738236639
10 MinMaxScaler RandomForest 0.738015441

Discussion

By using distributed processing of the data preparation, we can successfully shape and manage a malaria dataset of over 40,000 genetic attributes. This is complete with scalable vectorization of the training data, which allowed for many machine learning models to be generated. By tracking the individual performance results of each machine learning model, we can determine which model is most useful. In addition, ensemble modeling of the various singular models proved effective for both subchallenges in this work.

References

  1. NIEHS-NCATS-UNC DREAM Toxicogenetics Challenge (syn1761567)
  2. Caruana, R., Niculescu-Mizil, A., Crew, G. & Ksikes, A. Ensemble selection from libraries of models. In Proceedings of the Twenty-first International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML ’04, 18–, DOI: 10.1145/1015330.1015432 (ACM,New York, NY, USA, 2004).
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