Common ecology quantifies human insurgency

Wang Cheng-Jun edited this page Dec 25, 2016 · 9 revisions

计算传播学是计算社会科学的重要分支。它主要关注人类传播行为的可计算性基础,以传播网络分析、传播文本挖掘、数据科学等为主要分析工具,(以非介入地方式)大规模地收集并分析人类传播行为数据,挖掘人类传播行为背后的模式和法则,分析模式背后的生成机制与基本原理,可以被广泛地应用于数据新闻和计算广告等场景,注重编程训练、数学建模、可计算思维。

Clone this wiki locally

Abstract

Many collective human activities, including violence, have been shown to exhibit universal patterns1–19. The size distributions of casualties both in whole wars from 1816 to 1980 and terrorist attacks have separately been shown to follow approximate power-law distributions 6,7,9,10. However, the possibility of universal patterns ranging across wars in the size distribution or timing of within conflict events has barely been explored. Here we show that the sizes and timing of violent events within different insurgent conflicts exhibit remarkable similarities. We propose a unified model of human insurgency that reproduces these commonalities, and explains conflict-specific variations quantitatively in terms of underlying rules of engagement. Our model treats each insurgent population as an ecology of dynamically evolving, self-organized groups following common decision-making processes. Our model is consistent with several recent hypotheses about modern insurgency 18–20, is robust to many generalizations 21, and establishes a quantitative connection between human insurgency, global terrorism 10 and ecology 13–17,22,23. Its similarity to financial market models 24–26 provides a surprising link between violent and non-violent forms of human behaviour.

$$x=\frac{-b\pm\sqrt{b^2-4ac}}{2a}$$

event_size

event_timing

insurgency_model