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Effect of the assault weapon ban expiration on Mexico
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The effect of the expiration of the assault weapon ban on Mexico

There has been a lot of attention paid to the role of US guns exacerbating the violence in Mexico. On September 14 2004 the assault-weapon ban expired and as you can see from the charts this program generates, there was an increase in the number of homicides and homicides with firearm. The big problem in trying to ascertain causality is that there were two confounding variables: La Barbie, working for the Sinaloa Cartel, was trying to take over the drug trafficking route of Nuevo Laredo, and the leader of the Sinaloa Cartel ended his alliance with the Juarez Cartel by killing Rodolfo Carrillo Fuentes, brother of the leader of the Juarez Cartel.

I used a zero-inflated Poisson regression model predicting the homicides by firearm count with and without a breakpoint. The model with a breakpoint occuring at the same time as the assault weapons ban proved superior.

Weekly Homicides with Firearm

Sources

La Barbie and Nuevo Laredo

In September 2004, he bought a full-page ad in the Monterrey newspaper El Norte and in an open letter declared that he was merely a businessman. He asked President Vicente Fox for justice and said he had left Nuevo Laredo because police there kept pressing him for bribes.

The Dallas Morning News

End of the partnership between the Sinaloa and Juarez Cartels

En él iban Rodolfo Carrillo Fuentes y su esposa; habían sido ejecutados por un comando en el estacionamiento del centro comercial Cinépolis en Culiacán, el 11 de septiembre de 2004.

El encargado de la operación que acabó con la vida del Niño de Oro —hermano del fallecido Señor de los Cielos, Amado Carrillo—, su mujer y seis personas más —entre ellas un lavacoches— era un oficial de infantería desertor del Ejército, quien a partir de esa fecha se volvió célebre en el mundo de los sicarios por discreto y eficaz y por haber realizado el ataque con el que su jefe, Joaquín El Chapo Guzmán, reventó su relación con los Carrillo.

La infantería ligera del ‘Chapo’

Homicides with Firearm

Dirección General de Información en Salud (DGIS). Base de datos de defunciones 1979-2007. [en línea]: Sistema Nacional de Información en Salud (SINAIS). [México]: Secretaría de Salud. http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx [Consulta: 01 abril 2009].

Firearms-related homicides:

  • X93 Assault by handgun discharge
  • X94 Assault by rifle, shotgun and larger firearm discharge
  • X95 Assault by other and unspecified firearm discharge

Suicides with Firearm

Dirección General de Información en Salud (DGIS). Base de datos de defunciones 1979-2007. [en línea]: Sistema Nacional de Información en Salud (SINAIS). [México]: Secretaría de Salud. http://www.sinais.salud.gob.mx [Consulta: 01 abril 2009].

Firearms-related suicides:

  • X72 Intentional self-harm by handgun discharge
  • X73 Intentional self-harm by rifle, shotgun and larger firearm discharge
  • X74 Intentional self-harm by other and unspecified firearm discharge

Homicides in Nuevo Leon:

PGJ

Report on the Gun Battles of Nuevo Laredo

Texas Rangers, Border Security Operations Center, www.scribd.com/doc/35201752/NuevoLaredoCartelGunBattle7-16-2010 (The report is extremely graphic)

Population Data:

Indicadores demográficos básicos 1990-2030

Daily Homicide Data

Base de datos sobre defunciones Fuente: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (http://www.inegi.org.mx) Archivos en formato xBase contenidos en un arhivo comprimido ZIP

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