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readme.md

Predictions for the Homicide Rate in 2009 and 2010

A linear regression to predict future homicide rates

Sources

Homicide Data:

INEGI

Population Data:

Indicadores demográficos básicos 1990-2030

Executions

Reforma:

I used Engauge to scan the Figure "Ejecuciones By Month and Year, Jan. 2007- Feb. 2010" from the JUSTICE IN MEXICO PROJECT Monthly News Report, Number 53 March 2010

Milenio:

2007-2009

2010

Notes:

The data from Reforma looks like it's missing 1600 executions in Chihuahua, supposedly there were only 2000 executions in Chihuahua during 2009, but in this same period there were 2600 murders in Ciudad Juárez alone, normally there used to be about 200 homicides in Juárez. The data from Milenio looks better, but it seems to be missing about 200 executions during the month of november. I decided to average the data from Reforma and Milenio to estimate the homicide rate in 2009 and 2010.