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******************************************************************
**
**
** NAME: DOROTHY KRONICK
** and FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ
** DATE: October 26, 2017
** PROJECT: 15O
**
** DETAILS: This file predicts 2017 turnout
** on 2015 turnout, 2013 MUD vote
** share, and Maria Corina Machado's
** vote share in the 2012 primaries.
** These results underlie the statement
** in the article that turnout was
** lower than expected in places that
** supported MCM.
**
**
** Version: Stata MP 14
**
******************************************************************
** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
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*-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* preliminaries
*-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* clear
*------
clear
* set more off
*-------------
set more off
* directory
*----------
cd "/Users/djkronick/Dropbox/Venezuela/Quico/Regionales2017/Replication"
* master data
*------------
use "15OMstr.dta", clear
** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
*-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* simple regressions underlying statement in paper about MCM and abstention
*-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* no controls
*------------
reg turnout2017 turnout2015 MCMshare2012
reg turnout2017 turnout2015 MCMshare2012 MUDshare2013
* adding 2013 MUD share and state fixed effects
*----------------------------------------------
areg turnout2017 turnout2015 MCMshare2012 MUDshare2013, a(estado)
** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
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** end of do file **