diff --git a/cmd/lotus-shed/election.go b/cmd/lotus-shed/election.go
index ffe30d16367..c844203d6c9 100644
--- a/cmd/lotus-shed/election.go
+++ b/cmd/lotus-shed/election.go
@@ -7,30 +7,35 @@ import (
 
 	"github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/chain/types"
 	lcli "github.com/filecoin-project/lotus/cli"
+	builtin2 "github.com/filecoin-project/specs-actors/v2/actors/builtin"
 	"github.com/urfave/cli/v2"
 	"golang.org/x/xerrors"
 )
 
 var electionCmd = &cli.Command{
 	Name:  "election",
-	Usage: "commands related to leader election",
+	Usage: "Commands related to leader election",
 	Subcommands: []*cli.Command{
 		electionRunDummy,
+		electionEstimate,
 	},
 }
 
 var electionRunDummy = &cli.Command{
 	Name:  "run-dummy",
-	Usage: "runs dummy elections with given power",
+	Usage: "Runs dummy elections with given power",
 	Flags: []cli.Flag{
 		&cli.StringFlag{
-			Name: "network-power",
+			Name:  "network-power",
+			Usage: "network storage power",
 		},
 		&cli.StringFlag{
-			Name: "miner-power",
+			Name:  "miner-power",
+			Usage: "miner storage power",
 		},
 		&cli.Uint64Flag{
 			Name:  "seed",
+			Usage: "rand number",
 			Value: 0,
 		},
 	},
@@ -42,7 +47,7 @@ var electionRunDummy = &cli.Command{
 		}
 		networkPow, err := types.BigFromString(cctx.String("network-power"))
 		if err != nil {
-			return xerrors.Errorf("decoding miner-power: %w", err)
+			return xerrors.Errorf("decoding network-power: %w", err)
 		}
 
 		ep := &types.ElectionProof{}
@@ -68,3 +73,54 @@ var electionRunDummy = &cli.Command{
 		}
 	},
 }
+
+var electionEstimate = &cli.Command{
+	Name:  "estimate",
+	Usage: "Estimate elections with given power",
+	Flags: []cli.Flag{
+		&cli.StringFlag{
+			Name:  "network-power",
+			Usage: "network storage power",
+		},
+		&cli.StringFlag{
+			Name:  "miner-power",
+			Usage: "miner storage power",
+		},
+		&cli.Uint64Flag{
+			Name:  "seed",
+			Usage: "rand number",
+			Value: 0,
+		},
+	},
+	Action: func(cctx *cli.Context) error {
+		minerPow, err := types.BigFromString(cctx.String("miner-power"))
+		if err != nil {
+			return xerrors.Errorf("decoding miner-power: %w", err)
+		}
+		networkPow, err := types.BigFromString(cctx.String("network-power"))
+		if err != nil {
+			return xerrors.Errorf("decoding network-power: %w", err)
+		}
+
+		ep := &types.ElectionProof{}
+		ep.VRFProof = make([]byte, 32)
+		seed := cctx.Uint64("seed")
+		if seed == 0 {
+			seed = rand.Uint64()
+		}
+		binary.BigEndian.PutUint64(ep.VRFProof, seed)
+
+		winYear := int64(0)
+		for i := 0; i < builtin2.EpochsInYear; i++ {
+			binary.BigEndian.PutUint64(ep.VRFProof[8:], uint64(i))
+			j := ep.ComputeWinCount(minerPow, networkPow)
+			winYear += j
+		}
+		winHour := winYear * builtin2.EpochsInHour / builtin2.EpochsInYear
+		winDay := winYear * builtin2.EpochsInDay / builtin2.EpochsInYear
+		winMonth := winYear * builtin2.EpochsInDay * 30 / builtin2.EpochsInYear
+		fmt.Println("winInHour, winInDay, winInMonth, winInYear")
+		fmt.Printf("%d, %d, %d, %d\n", winHour, winDay, winMonth, winYear)
+		return nil
+	},
+}