Wales Social Care Simulation
In conjunction with Landman Economics we've just completed a major piece of work for the Welsh Assembly Government('http://wales.gov.uk') on modelling the finance of social care.
This is the most technically sophisticated model we've ever been involved in; indeed, we believe it to be one of the most complex microsimulation projects ever undertaken anwhere in the world. It uses [British Household Panel Survey] (https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/bhps) (BHPS) data to model demand for social care under many possible financing systems for up to 20 years. The projects are made either by ageing the households - increasing the ages of household members and applying estimated probabilities of major events such as retirement, worsening of health and eventually death, or by [selectively reweighing the households to match population projects projections] (http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-05/935.pdf).
Contact: Graham Stark (firstname.lastname@example.org)