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Wales Social Care Simulation

In conjunction with Landman Economics we've just completed a major piece of work for the Welsh Assembly Government('http://wales.gov.uk') on modelling the finance of social care.

This is the most technically sophisticated model we've ever been involved in; indeed, we believe it to be one of the most complex microsimulation projects ever undertaken anwhere in the world. It uses [British Household Panel Survey] (https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/bhps) (BHPS) data to model demand for social care under many possible financing systems for up to 20 years. The projects are made either by ageing the households - increasing the ages of household members and applying estimated probabilities of major events such as retirement, worsening of health and eventually death, or by [selectively reweighing the households to match population projects projections] (http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/wpapers-05/935.pdf).

Contact: Graham Stark (graham.stark@virtual-worlds.biz)

See: http://virtual-worlds-research.com

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A dynamic simulation of the costs of social care in Wales using BHPS data.

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