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Model obs trends.xlsx

Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections

This repository contains the notebooks, scripts, and data that correspond to the analysis in the paper by Hausfather, Z., Drake, H. F., Abbott, T., Schmidt, G. A. (2019), "Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections", Geophysical Research Letters,

Please contact if you have any questions or difficulties with using this code.

Play around with the data directly in your browser at Binder


This code is freely available for reuse as described in the MIT License included in this repository. However, if you use this code or any derived data products in an academic publication, you are obliged to provide the following citation:

  • Hausfather, Z., Drake, H. F., Abbott, T., Schmidt, G. A. (2019). Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2019GL085378.

If you use any of our raw or derived data from this repository, we ask that you also provide direct citations to the original sources that document the individual climate models (or climate model ensembles) and observational data products.


The environment.yml file contains the python dependencies necessary to run the data processing notebooks. Figures 1, 2, S1, S2, S3, S4, and S5 were produced offline using the plotting software STATA based on the raw data in data/raw and the interim data files in data/processed, which are produced by the notebook notebooks/Obs forcing analysis.ipynb from the data files in data/raw. Figures 3 and S6 were produced using the python notebooks notebooks/plot_temperature_forcing_spaghetti.ipynb and notebooks/plot_temperature_forcing_FAR_spaghetti.ipynb based on the data in data/processed/.

Note: Two data files have been moved, relative to the live links in the Supplementary Materials: ==> ==>

Copyright (c) 2019 Zeke Hausfather and Henri Drake

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