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[Day22]分析股票 - 股票基本常識 - iT 邦幫忙__一起幫忙解決難題，拯救 IT 人的一天.html
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[Day22]分析股票 - 股票基本常識 - iT 邦幫忙__一起幫忙解決難題，拯救 IT 人的一天.html
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<title>[Day22]分析股票 - 股票基本常識 - iT 邦幫忙::一起幫忙解決難題，拯救 IT 人的一天</title>
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<h3>前言</h3>
<p>今天是鐵人的第22天，主要要來介紹股票和投資股票前的一些數學常識(從網路文章中擷取)，今天程式的部分比較少，主要是講股票的觀念。接下來的幾個章節才會開始進入股票分析。</p>
<h3>股票分析的過程</h3>
<p>使用python來分析真實世界的財經資料</p>
<ol>
<li>股票的資料：通常是csv檔案，在day6的時候有介紹檔案的部分</li>
<li>資料的分析：統計模型，day7~day14介紹資料的分析</li>
<li>視覺化資料：將資料轉換成圖表，day15~day19</li>
</ol>
<h3>股票市場</h3>
<ul>
<li>初級市場：又稱「發行市場」，資金需求者（包括政府單位、金融機構及公民營企業）為籌集資金，出售有價證券給最初購買者之發行市場</li>
<li>次級市場：又稱「流通市場」，是初級市場發行後之有價證券買賣的交易市場。我們平常所看到的股價與交易資訊大多來自次級市場</li>
</ul>
<h3>交易所</h3>
<p>在台灣處理股票的單位叫做「台灣證券交易所」股份有限公司，成立為1961年10月3日。</p>
<ul>
<li>交易時間：星期一到星期五的 09:00 ~ 13:30。
<ul>
<li>休假停市日除經過特別公告外，與金融業的例行假日相同</li>
<li>台北市宣布停止上班上課時，則台灣証券交易所休市</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3>市場概況</h3>
<p><a href="https://stock-ai.com/eom-1-publiclyTradedCompanys.php" target="_blank">資料來源1</a><br>
<a href="http://www.twse.com.tw/zh/statistics/statisticsWeek" target="_blank">台灣證券交易所</a><br>
<a href="http://www.tpex.org.tw/web/stock/statistics/monthly/monthly_rpt_mkt_info_02.php?l=zh-tw" target="_blank">證券櫃買賣中心 - 上櫃</a><br>
<a href="http://www.tpex.org.tw/web/emergingstock/emg_market_highlight/EmgHighlight.php?l=zh-tw" target="_blank">證券櫃買賣中心 - 興櫃</a></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公開發行公司</th>
<th>上市公司</th>
<th>上櫃公司</th>
<th>興櫃公司</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>數量</td>
<td>920</td>
<td>763</td>
<td>257</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>市值</td>
<td>285,972.81(億元)</td>
<td>2,607,551(佰萬)</td>
<td>510,665(佰萬)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>股票的歷史資料</h3>
<p>用套件抓取某個股票的歷史資料時，格式通常會如下</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>日期</th>
<th>最高價High</th>
<th>最低價Low</th>
<th>開盤價Open</th>
<th>收盤價Close</th>
<th>成交量Volume</th>
<th>調整後收盤價Adj Close</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2015-01-05</td>
<td>140.5</td>
<td>137.5</td>
<td>140.5</td>
<td>139.5</td>
<td>32046000.0</td>
<td>121.474525</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>股票的價格取決於競標的形式。<br>
開盤價：指的是9點開盤之前，把每一個股票買賣當量做統計所訂出的價格。<br>
收盤價：股票收盤之前，把每一個股票買賣當量做統計所訂出的價格。<br>
日報酬率：把前一天的收盤價和今天的收盤價做比較。</p>
<h3>關於投資幾個數學常識</h3>
<ol>
<li>關於收益率<br>
假設你投資現金有10萬，第一個月收益100%，資金到達20萬，但第二個月損失50%，資金卻會跌回10萬</li>
</ol>
<pre><code class="hljs makefile">money = 10
first_month = 10*(1+1)
second_month = first_month*(1-0.5)
print('第一個月收益：',first_month)
print('第二個月收益：',second_month)
</code></pre>
<pre><code class="hljs sql"><span class="hljs-comment"># 輸出結果</span>
第一個月收益： 20
第二個月收益： 10.0
</code></pre>
<p>結論是<code>虧損比賺錢容易</code></p>
<ol start="2">
<li>關於漲跌停<br>
假設你股票有10萬，有以下兩種情況<br>
(1). 第一天漲10%，第二天跌10%。<br>
(2). 第一天跌10%，第二天漲10%，不管是哪一種資金最後都是9.9萬。</li>
</ol>
<pre><code class="hljs makefile">money = 10
up_first_day = 10*(1+0.1)
up_second_day = up_first_day*(1-0.1)
down_first_day = 10*(1-0.1)
up_second_day = down_first_day*(1+0.1)
print('第一種股票餘額：',up_second_day)
print('第二種股票餘額：',up_second_day)
</code></pre>
<pre><code class="hljs css"># 輸出結果
第一種股票餘額： 9<span class="hljs-selector-class">.9</span>
第二種股票餘額： 9<span class="hljs-selector-class">.9</span>
</code></pre>
<p>結論是<code>漲跌不管前後餘額都一樣</code></p>
<ol start="3">
<li>關於波動性<br>
假設你股票有10萬，第一年賺40%，第二年賠20%，第三年賺30%，第四年賠20%，第五年賺50，第六年賠20%</li>
</ol>
<pre><code class="hljs lua">import <span class="hljs-built_in">math</span> as <span class="hljs-built_in">math</span>
money = <span class="hljs-number">10</span>
six_year = <span class="hljs-number">10</span>*(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>+<span class="hljs-number">0.4</span>)*(<span class="hljs-number">1</span><span class="hljs-number">-0.2</span>)*(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>+<span class="hljs-number">0.3</span>)*(<span class="hljs-number">1</span><span class="hljs-number">-0.2</span>)*(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>+<span class="hljs-number">0.5</span>)*(<span class="hljs-number">1</span><span class="hljs-number">-0.2</span>)
rate = <span class="hljs-built_in">math</span>.<span class="hljs-built_in">pow</span>((six_year/money),<span class="hljs-number">1</span>/<span class="hljs-number">6</span>)<span class="hljs-number">-1</span>
<span class="hljs-built_in">print</span>(<span class="hljs-string">'六年後的資本額：'</span>,six_year, <span class="hljs-string">" 年報酬率："</span>,rate)
</code></pre>
<pre><code class="hljs css"># 輸出結果
六年後的資本額： 13<span class="hljs-selector-class">.977600000000004</span> 年報酬率： 0<span class="hljs-selector-class">.05739868994194808</span>
</code></pre>
<p>波動性大的股票，年報酬率有時候還會輸績優股</p>
<ol start="4">
<li>每天只賺1%<br>
假設你股票有50萬，每天只賺1%，一年會有250個交易日</li>
</ol>
<pre><code class="hljs lua">money = <span class="hljs-number">50</span>
day = <span class="hljs-number">250</span>
<span class="hljs-built_in">print</span>(<span class="hljs-string">'一年的資本額：'</span>,<span class="hljs-built_in">math</span>.<span class="hljs-built_in">pow</span>(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>+<span class="hljs-number">0.01</span>,day) * money, <span class="hljs-string">" 二年的資本額："</span>,<span class="hljs-built_in">math</span>.<span class="hljs-built_in">pow</span>(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>+<span class="hljs-number">0.01</span>,day*<span class="hljs-number">2</span>) * money)
</code></pre>
<pre><code class="hljs css"># 輸出結果
一年的資本額： 601<span class="hljs-selector-class">.6077884148732</span> 二年的資本額： 7238<span class="hljs-selector-class">.638621628698</span>
</code></pre>
<p>就算每次報酬只有1%，但只要穩定投資，也可以成長為大資本</p>
<ol start="5">
<li>投資組合<br>
假設你股票有100萬，投資以下組合 無風險資產A(每年5%)，高風險資產B(每年-20%~40%)，投資80萬到A，20萬到B</li>
</ol>
<pre><code class="hljs erlang">money = <span class="hljs-number">100</span>
big_risk = <span class="hljs-number">20</span>
<span class="hljs-function"><span class="hljs-title">print</span><span class="hljs-params">('最佳投資：', ( (<span class="hljs-number">100</span>-big_risk)</span>*<span class="hljs-params">(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>+<span class="hljs-number">0.05</span>)</span> + <span class="hljs-params">(big_risk)</span>*<span class="hljs-params">(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>+<span class="hljs-number">0.4</span>)</span>))
<span class="hljs-title">print</span><span class="hljs-params">('最差投資：', ( (<span class="hljs-number">100</span>-big_risk)</span>*<span class="hljs-params">(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>+<span class="hljs-number">0.05</span>)</span> + <span class="hljs-params">(big_risk)</span>*<span class="hljs-params">(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>-<span class="hljs-number">0.2</span>)</span>))
<span class="hljs-title">print</span><span class="hljs-params">('平均投資：', ( (<span class="hljs-number">100</span>-big_risk)</span>*<span class="hljs-params">(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>+<span class="hljs-number">0.05</span>)</span> + <span class="hljs-params">(big_risk)</span>*0.5*<span class="hljs-params">(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>-<span class="hljs-number">0.2</span>)</span> + <span class="hljs-params">(big_risk)</span>*0.5*<span class="hljs-params">(<span class="hljs-number">1</span>+<span class="hljs-number">0.4</span>)</span> ))
</span></code></pre>
<pre><code class="hljs css"># 輸出結果
最佳投資： 112<span class="hljs-selector-class">.0</span>
最差投資： 100<span class="hljs-selector-class">.0</span>
平均投資： 106<span class="hljs-selector-class">.0</span>
</code></pre>
<p>最好的年報酬率可以到0.12，最差就攤平，這就是保本基金CPPI技術的雛形。</p>
<ol start="6">
<li>
<p>關於做空<br>
做空最大的收益率就是100%，前提是這支股票下市，但做多的收益率是沒有上限的，因此不要永遠的做空。除非你不相信人類社會會前進。</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>關於賭場贏利<br>
分析了澳門賭客1000個數據，發現勝率為0.53，輸的是0.47，但是如果加上人性去算，<br>
贏錢而離場的人平均贏利為0.34，但輸錢而離場的人卻虧損0.72，因此賭場並不需要做局來降低勝率，只要依靠人性的弱點就可以持續贏，股市亦如此。</p>
</li>
</ol>
<pre><code class="hljs css">0<span class="hljs-selector-class">.53</span>*0<span class="hljs-selector-class">.34</span>+0<span class="hljs-selector-class">.47</span>*(<span class="hljs-selector-tag">-0</span><span class="hljs-selector-class">.72</span>)
</code></pre>
<pre><code class="hljs sql"><span class="hljs-comment"># 輸出結果</span>
-0.15819999999999995
</code></pre>
<p>所以加上人性後來看，莊家還是賺錢的</p>
<p>從以上結論來看，所以為什麼要用程式交易，因為程式看的是數據，不會受心理因素影響。這也是筆者正在學習的，因為在寫這文章之前，筆者完全不懂Python，也不懂股票，更別說什麼數據分析的演算法，現在文章寫到20天，也只是了解Python基礎語法，和資料處理和圖形化，真正要進入股市分析也是一知半解，所以接下來的文章排版會更亂，都是用在網路上看到什麼內容在拿出來分享。</p>
<h3>參考來源</h3>
<p>(1) <a href="https://community.bigquant.com/t/%E9%87%8F%E5%8C%96%E5%B0%8F%E8%AF%BE%E5%A0%82-Finance%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%97%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E8%AE%B2-%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E7%9A%8410%E4%B8%AA%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6%E5%B8%B8%E8%AF%86/123" target="_blank"></a><a href="https://community.bigquant.com/t/%E9%87%8F%E5%8C%96%E5%B0%8F%E8%AF%BE%E5%A0%82-Finance%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%97%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E8%AE%B2-%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E7%9A%8410%E4%B8%AA%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6%E5%B8%B8%E8%AF%86/123" target="_blank">https://community.bigquant.com/t/%E9%87%8F%E5%8C%96%E5%B0%8F%E8%AF%BE%E5%A0%82-Finance%E7%B3%BB%E5%88%97%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E8%AE%B2-%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E7%9A%8410%E4%B8%AA%E6%95%B0%E5%AD%A6%E5%B8%B8%E8%AF%86/123</a></p>
<h3>之前的章節</h3>
<ul>
<li>安裝環境
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://ithelp.ithome.com.tw/articles/10199666" target="_blank">安裝Anaconda</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://ithelp.ithome.com.tw/articles/10200046" target="_blank">安裝Jupyter notebook</a>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>統計
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://ithelp.ithome.com.tw/articles/10204118" target="_blank">統計基礎</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://ithelp.ithome.com.tw/articles/10202496" target="_blank">隨機變數(Random Variable)</a>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>程式碼位置
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://github.com/lastsummer/learn_python_data_analysis/blob/master/06.stock/day22.ipynb" target="_blank">github</a><br>
因為作者本身也是第一次學習Python和寫程式文章，也是才碰股票沒幾天而已，所以編排上會有點亂，觀念可能也會錯誤，如果有疑問可以提出一起討論。</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
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