Modeling NFL Field Goal Probabilities in R
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Interactive Demo
Demo Slides.pdf
Field Goal Writeup.pdf
Going for Three (original paper).pdf

Probabilistic modeling of NFL field goals

Research project using logistic regression, multiple linear regression, neural networks, and random forests to form probability estimates on NFL field goals. Using these estimates, an unbiased measurement of individual kicker ability can be formed by measuring points added above the expected value per attempt over individual seasons or entire careers. Presented at Boston College Big Data Research Day as "Machine Learning and the NFL Field Goal."

Interactive demo can be found at

Full writeup in the Field Goal Writeup.pdf file.