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Calcuations of assumed decarbonization in RCP scenarios, versus observations
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Dangerous Assumptions Revisited

Calcuations of assumed decarbonization in RCP scenarios, versus observations. This analysis was inspired by Roger Pielke, Jr., Tom Wigley, and Christopher Green, "Dangerous Assumptions," Nature 452, 531 (2008) https://www-nature-com/articles/452531a and Samantha Stevenson and Roger Pielke, Jr., "Assumptions of Spontaneous Decarbonization in the IPCC AR5 Baseline Scenarios," as well as a recent talk Pielke presented in Japan.

I was curious what the comparison of the observed rates of change of energy and carbon intensity to rates implied by RCP scenarios would look like if we used the last decade or so of the world trends, instead of focusing on the anomalous period of rapid growth of carbon intensity and energy intensity corresponding to the rapid industrialization of China from around 2000--2007.

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