Uncertain Future

The Uncertain Future enables structured probablistic modeling concerning the development of advanced technologies. It turns the user's subjective probability distributions on technological variables into output probabilities relating to neuromorphic computing, whole brain emulation, and strong AI.

This library (and Java applet) helps those users interested in future technology to form their own rigorous, mathematically consistent model of how the development of advanced technologies will affect the history of civilization over the next hundred years. Sample projections from experts are available from fields such as semiconductor development, biotechnology, global security, AI and neuroscience.

Bibliography

• Changing the frame of AI futurism: From storytelling to heavy-tailed, high-dimensional probability distributions (Rayhawk et al., 2009)
• 2009-12-12 release announcement
• UF research grant proposal

Acknowledgements

The Uncertain Future was primarily developed in Summer 2008 at Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence by Steve Rayhawk, Anna Salamon, Thomas McCabe, Michael Anissimov, Rolf Nelson, Bryan Bishop and Michael Blume.