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How soon is "next couple of months"? Personal geopolitical situation #3

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marsrobertson opened this issue Feb 9, 2020 · 1 comment

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@marsrobertson
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@marsrobertson marsrobertson commented Feb 9, 2020

The main reason for opening this issue - to showcase that I'm determined and I know my numbers.

Buying a house (5% downpayment)

I have opened https://www.gov.uk/lifetime-isa June 2019.

It's 25% government bonus towards the purchase of the first home, limited to £1000 of free money per year.

Usually, I'm not a big fan of the government but here the risk-reward ratio is reasonable. I don't expect UK government to go out of business in the next couple of months, not with the investment in nuclear submarines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trident_(UK_nuclear_programme)

I understand their incentive to support homeownership - less money spent on social housing and welfare benefits.

Citizenship situation

https://www.gov.uk/british-citizenship

I have all the paperwork in place:

The only reason why I haven't pulled the trigger is the cost: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fees-for-citizenship-applications/fees-for-citizenship-applications-and-the-right-of-abode-from-6-april-2018

Simple realisation that for now, noone is kicking me out of the UK and I'd rather preserve the capital for the downpayment for the house.

(and only then apply for a piece of paper)

Speculating how BREXIT with affect real-estate prices?

Deal or no-deal, any decision will remove uncertainty.

See the land registry data

Screenshot 2020-02-09 at 12 22 21

Prices stagnated, market was frozen, now it's warming up again.

I'm ready to pull the trigger now if I find a suitable house, even without waiting till June to receive free money, even without waiting for the outcome of BREXIT negotiation.

giphy

Emotional stability

Owning your own house gives has a number of advantages:

  • the sense of stability
  • ability to refurbish and increase value
  • install storage, lightning, stuff suited to my needs

Bitcoin halving

I need to admit that I’m over-exposed to one asset class - BTC, ETH, PNK diversifying in the crypto is still one asset class.

If I was to purchase a house right now I'd effectively be overexposed to one asset class too.

Surviving crypto winter and sell right now, just before the halving? Unsure, I'd rather participate in this bull run as well...


Keeping my existing job is necessary to obtain a mortgage.

That's why suggesting part-time 10 hours per week contracting work focused on the escrow.

This will be my chance to deliver quality work and negotiate a full-time role.

@marsrobertson

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@marsrobertson marsrobertson commented Feb 9, 2020

Account_Statement_-_Newcastle_Building_Society

So far I paid £1 to activate the countdown.

End of tax year 2019/20 is 6 April 2020.

There are two scenarios:

  1. I buy a house before that date, not using government bonus
  2. I maximize the bonus, pay £3999 in this tax year. Then wait till 21 June for the bonus to mature. When buying the house pay in another £4000 to get £2000 free money in total.

Scenario 1: I apply for citizenship soon after I get the house.
Scenario 2: I apply for citizenship while waiting for the bonus to mature

Why you haven't opened the Lifetime ISA earlier you may ask?

I had an uncertain housing situation and wasn't sure which address to use. Frequent change of address - reduced credit score. Thinking about getting a landline: https://credit-score-rating.blogspot.com/2019/07/obtaining-landline-to-achieve-better.html

(I kid you not)

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