Economical Cycle Timing
If you invest monthly to index based world wide ETF, does it matter what is the stage of economical cycle when you start?
Check out the
economical-cycle-timing.ipynb for the data analysis.
Related blog post
Here is the original blog in Finnish.
Summary of results
Here is a summary of results in video. It shows 10 year cumulative profits by different starting year for a monthly investor.
msci-world-index-historical-data-1969-2018.xlsx file contains the investment data.
The data is from here. Remember to allow Flash.
I used Ubuntu subsystem for Windows for development.
env_example.sh contains a template script that you can paste to Ubuntu editor when starting a development session.
Python 3.6 has been used. In Ubuntu 18 python 3.6 should be pre-installed. Try it with command
Install virtual environment by
pip3 install virtualenv. Create a new virtualenv by
- Add 2% compound inflation line to charts
- Add index line to charts
- Take into account that only full shares can be purchased
- Make a sliding analysis since the beginning with 15 years investment time
- Calculate different strategies
- Only buy after 5 months of down hill
- Use machine learning to determine best buy and sell strategies
- Better documentation for the notebook