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growth rate (% increase of previous increase) #19

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mikeborozdin opened this issue Apr 11, 2020 · 1 comment · Fixed by #34
Closed

growth rate (% increase of previous increase) #19

mikeborozdin opened this issue Apr 11, 2020 · 1 comment · Fixed by #34
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@mikeborozdin
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@mikeborozdin mikeborozdin commented Apr 11, 2020

Context

We show a percentage increase in cases and deaths. That percentage is increase is calculated as (casesOnLastDay - casesOnPreviousDay) / casesOnLastDay.

There's a potential problem with it. We can hear in the news that, say, in the UK there's been the highest number of deaths on a single day - 1,000. So if each day from that one there are 1,000 more deaths on each single day, then our percentage increase would start to go down.

Indeed, although the number is terrifying it stays the same, while the total numbers keeps growing. Hence, it's share in total drops with every single day.

Possible solution

A better option would be to see how numbers grow in relation to the previous increase, a.k.a we can use this formula:

growthRate = absoluteIncreaseOnLastDay / absoluteIncreaseOnPreviousDay

In that case, with a constant number of 1,000 we'll see that the rate of growth is still 100%.

I think we should add this chart, but keep the existing one. It'll be useful to see how those numbers play with each other.

@mikeborozdin mikeborozdin created this issue from a note in Track a Virus (To do) Apr 11, 2020
@mikeborozdin mikeborozdin added the feature label Apr 11, 2020
@mikeborozdin mikeborozdin changed the title feature: growth factor (% increase of previous increase) growth rate (% increase of previous increase) Apr 11, 2020
@mikeborozdin
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@mikeborozdin mikeborozdin commented Apr 19, 2020

Solved by doing a growth rate of a moving average (over 7 days)

Track a Virus automation moved this from To do to Done Apr 19, 2020
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