Risk Brainstorming

lehnberg edited this page Oct 23, 2018 · 1 revision


This document covers the Risk Brainstorming process that is part of the Identification phase of Grin's Risk Management.

The process can be broken down in the following steps:

  1. Familiarise yourself with the 1-9 scale for Risk Management below.
  2. Open the Risk Brainstorm Google doc.
  3. Add any new risks (positive or negative) as rows to the document
  4. Score the risks according to your perception of Impact, Chance, and Knowledge, as columns to the document.

Risk Scoring Scale

The following table is meant to explain the standard 1-9 scale for risk management. The Probability Column represents the rough percentage probability associated with the number on the scale. The Impact, Chance, and Knowledge columns represent the logical explanation of the associated number on the scale. This example assumes a 1-year time frame, meaning that risks are being viewed based on their potential impact/chance over the next year.

Scale Probability Impact Chance Knowledge
1 0.39% No real impact Median time to occur = 100+ years. Extremely unlikely or almost impossible to occur. I don't really know what it is but I've heard of it and have a general idea.
2 0.77% Tiny impact at best. Median time to occur = 50 years. Once a lifetime events It interacts with me and I understand how.
3 1.55% Some impact but marginal and can be absorbed unless margins are too tight. Median time to occur = 25 years. Very unlikely but expected about once or twice a per career. Only dealt with it with guidance someone more experienced.
4 3.09% Some impact on the bottom line, think 2-4%. Median time to occur = 15 years. Might happen every 1-3 decades. Some experience with it.
5 6.19% Decent impact 5-10%. Median time to occur = 7 or 8 years. Expected to happen once or rarely twice a decade, but sometimes you get lucky. Studied it or work with it.
6 12.38% Margins destroying/doubling think 10-20% impact on goal. Median time to occur = 4 years. Likely to occur every few years. Studied it and work with it.
7 24.75% Can set you back/ahead multiple year, think 25%. Median time to occur = 2 years. Decent chance to occur on any year, but sometimes going multiple years without. Career focus, I am the organizational expert.
8 49.50% Business destroying/making will likely have to sell off or restructure in some way, will no longer be within the original scope. Happens almost every year with rare breaks Career focus + relevant master's degree/PHD etc.
9 99.00% Total transformation, either a complete loss on the downside or a once a lifetime lotto win take the money and run situation on the upside. Likely to occur more than once a year and almost guaranteed to happen at least once every year. I'm one of the global authorities.


Brainstorming table (Google Sheets)

Everyone in the community are free to participate in this process.

  1. Open the Google spreadsheet.
  2. Add any additional risks as rows to the sheet.
  3. Add yourself as columns (one for Impact, one for Chance, and one for Knowledge) to the sheet.
  4. Score the risks according to your best assessment.
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