This repository contains the code and data needed to reproduce Figure 1 from Kaufman, Darrell S. and McKay, Nicholas P, 2022, Technical Note: Past and future warming – Direct comparison on multi-century timescales. Climate of the Past.. The article is open and available here.
The code to reproduce this figure is written in R, and available in figure1.R
. Several packages are required to run the code, and will need to be installed for the code to run.
The time series data in figure 1 are included in data/TemperatureData.xlsx. The data are available from publicaly accessible sources, and have been modified relative to the 1850-1900 baseline as follows:
Data set: Late Quaternary global temperature according to equations by Hansen et al. (2013) applied to benthic marine oxygen isotope stack of Zachos et al. (2008).
Available: http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Sensitivity+SL+CO2/Table.txt (last access: 21 March 2022).
Modified: Subtracted 14.15° C to adjust temperature relative to 1961-1990 and added 0.36°C to adjust to 1850-1900 reference period, based on the AR6 assessed four data set mean (Trewin, 2022; GMST-component_data_sets.csv).
Data set: Late Quaternary multi-proxy sea surface temperature stack converted to global temperature by Snyder (2016).
Available: https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fnature19798/MediaObjects/41586_2016_BFnature19798_MOESM258_ESM.xlsx (last access: 21 March 2022).
Modified: Added 0.23° C to adjust late Holocene temperature to the 1850-1900 reference period, based on the reconstruction of Kaufman et al. (2020a).
Data set: Holocene multi-method ensemble global temperature of Kaufman et al. (2020b), based on multi-proxy marine and terrestrial paleotemperature data (Temp12k; Kaufman et al., 2020a), using code of Routson et al. (2020).
Available: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/29712 (Kaufman et al., 2020c; temp12k_allmethods_percentiles).
Modified: Subtracted 0.03° C to adjust 19th century mean temperature to 1850-1900 reference period based on PAGES 2k Consortium (2019) 10-year smoothed multi-method reconstruction (Gilbert et al., 2021; SPM1_1-2000.csv).
Data set: Last Glacial Maximum reanalysis (LGMR) of Osman et al. (2021a) based on marine paleotemperature data (Osman et al., 2021b; proxyDatabase.nc) assimilated using climate model (iCESM) priors and code from https://github.com/JonKing93/DASH, v.3.6.1.
Available: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/paleo-search/study/33112 (Osman et al., 2021b; LGMR_GMST_ens.nc).
Modified: Subtracted 13.49°C (median of the most recent bin) to adjust temperature relative to 1750-1950 and added 0.03° C to adjust to 1850-1900 reference period based on PAGES 2k Consortium (2019) 10-year smoothed multi-method reconstruction (Gilbert et al., 2021; SPM1_1-2000.csv).
Data set: 1850-2020 global temperature of Gulev et al. (2021) based on mean of four instrumental data sets (HadCRUT, NOAA, Berkeley Earth, Kadow) assessed by IPCC-AR6-WGI and shown in Fig. 2.11c.
Available: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6321535 (Trewin, 2022; GMST-component_data_sets.csv).
Modified: None (1850-1900 reference period).
Data set: Global temperature projections to 2300 of Lee et al. (2021) based on the MAGICC (v.7.5.0) emulator (Meinshausen et al., 2020) calibrated against the IPCC-AR6 assessed temperature to 2100 and shown in Fig. 4.40a.
Available: https://zenodo.org/record/6386979 (Nicholls et al., 2022; files with titles containing “fig-4-40” and respective SSP identifiers).
Modified: None (1850-1900 reference period).
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