diff --git a/scripts/publish.js b/scripts/publish.js
index fb2ab34e6bc06..62f2217b752bf 100644
--- a/scripts/publish.js
+++ b/scripts/publish.js
@@ -1,59 +1,58 @@
 const semver = require('semver')
 const log = require('proc-log')
 const pacote = require('pacote')
-const { run, git, npm, pkg, spawn } = require('./util.js')
+const { run, git, npm, pkg: cli, spawn } = require('./util.js')
 
 const resetdeps = () => npm('run', 'resetdeps')
 
 const op = () => spawn('op', 'item', 'get', 'npm', '--otp', { out: true, ok: true })
 
-const TAGS = {
-  // cli is always published to next-MAJOR
-  root: (v) => ({ tag: `next-${semver.major(v)}` }),
-  // workspaces are always published to latest, except prereleases
-  workspace: () => ({ tag: 'latest', preTag: 'prerelease' }),
+const getVersion = async (s) => {
+  const mani = await pacote.manifest(s, { preferOnline: true })
+  return mani.version
+}
+const getLatest = async (s) => {
+  const pack = await pacote.packument(s, { preferOnline: true })
+  return pack['dist-tags'].latest
+}
+
+const TAG = {
+  cli: ({ version }) => `next-${semver.major(version)}`,
+  workspace: async ({ name, version }) => {
+    const { prerelease, major } = semver.parse(version)
+    if (prerelease.length) {
+      return 'prerelease'
+    }
+    if (major === await getLatest(name).then(v => semver.major(v))) {
+      return 'latest'
+    }
+    return 'backport'
+  },
 }
 
-const needsPublish = async ({ pkg: { private, name, version }, force, tags: getTags }) => {
+const needsPublish = async ({ private, name, version }, { force, getTag }) => {
   if (private) {
     return
   }
 
-  const tags = getTags(version)
-  const tag = semver.parse(version).prerelease.length && tags.preTag
-    ? tags.preTag
-    : tags.tag
-
-  if (force) {
-    return tag
-  }
-
-  const mani = await pacote.manifest(`${name}@${tag}`, { preferOnline: true })
-  if (version !== mani.version) {
+  const tag = await getTag({ name, version })
+  if (force || version !== await getVersion(`${name}@${tag}`)) {
     return tag
   }
 }
 
-const getPublishes = async ({ force }) => {
+const getPublishes = async (opts) => {
   const publish = []
 
-  for (const { name, pkg: ws } of await pkg.mapWorkspaces()) {
+  for (const { name, pkg } of await cli.mapWorkspaces()) {
     publish.push({
       workspace: name,
-      tag: await needsPublish({
-        force,
-        pkg: ws,
-        tags: TAGS.workspace,
-      }),
+      tag: await needsPublish(pkg, { ...opts, getTag: TAG.workspace }),
     })
   }
 
   publish.push({
-    tag: await needsPublish({
-      force,
-      pkg,
-      tags: TAGS.root,
-    }),
+    tag: await needsPublish(cli, { ...opts, getTag: TAG.cli }),
   })
 
   return publish.filter(p => p.tag)