diff --git a/.changeset/driver-conformance-zero-discovery.md b/.changeset/driver-conformance-zero-discovery.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..96b1e8657e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/.changeset/driver-conformance-zero-discovery.md
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+---
+---
+
+test(drivers): a conformance run that discovers zero drivers is a failure, not an OK (#4646)
+
+`scripts/check-driver-conformance.mjs` discovers driver packages from disk under a
+hardcoded `DRIVERS_DIR`. `listDir` swallows ENOENT and returns `[]`, and all three
+invariants iterate the discovered set — CONSUMED over `drivers`, RECONCILED over
+`LEDGER` (empty since #4405, the intended steady state), CLASSIFIED not over drivers
+at all. So a stale `DRIVERS_DIR` produced `OK — 0 covered cell(s)` and exit 0.
+
+CI never had this exposure: `lint.yml` runs `pnpm check:driver-conformance`, which is
+`--self-test && audit`, and the self-test carried a driver-discovery assertion. The
+false green was on the bare `node scripts/check-driver-conformance.mjs` the script's
+own header documents as a usage.
+
+Two things were wrong with leaving the guard there. It read
+`drivers.length >= 3 && drivers.includes('driver-sql')` — a hardcoded name and count
+inside the one script whose stated rule is that drivers come from disk and are never
+listed, so both needed hand-editing on the next driver added or package moved, which
+is precisely when the guard earns its keep. And its failure text ("discovers driver
+packages from disk") named neither `DRIVERS_DIR` nor the stale path, leaving whoever
+tripped it to find that themselves.
+
+DISCOVERED is now a fourth invariant in `audit()`, and the message names the directory
+it searched. The self-test drives the invariant in both directions instead of standing
+in for it, and asserts nothing about which drivers exist.
+
+The case-set axis cannot rot this way and is left alone: `CASE_SETS` is a declared
+expectation, so a vanished `spec/src/data` fails CLASSIFIED's reverse direction with
+one error per case-set. The driver axis is disk-discovery with nothing declared to
+reconcile against — that asymmetry is why zero was reachable on one axis and not the
+other, and it is what DISCOVERED supplies.
diff --git a/scripts/check-driver-conformance.mjs b/scripts/check-driver-conformance.mjs
index 8d3b0d4367..1dad5438fe 100644
--- a/scripts/check-driver-conformance.mjs
+++ b/scripts/check-driver-conformance.mjs
@@ -34,6 +34,15 @@
 //
 // ## Invariants
 //
+//   DISCOVERED  at least one driver package was found. Zero is not an empty
+//               matrix, it is a broken run: the other three invariants iterate
+//               the discovered set, so they all pass vacuously and this script
+//               prints OK while checking nothing. The case-set axis cannot fail
+//               this way -- CASE_SETS is a declared expectation, so a vanished
+//               `spec/src/data` fails CLASSIFIED's reverse direction -- but the
+//               driver axis is disk-discovery with nothing declared to
+//               reconcile against, and RECONCILED's reverse direction walks
+//               LEDGER, which is empty in the intended steady state.
 //   CONSUMED    every (driver x case-set) cell is either covered -- some file
 //               under the package's `src/` imports the case-set's marker export
 //               from `@objectstack/spec/data` -- or carries a DEBT/EXEMPT entry
@@ -157,6 +166,27 @@ function discoverDrivers() {
     .sort();
 }
 
+/**
+ * DISCOVERED — the errors for a discovery that found nothing.
+ *
+ * Split out from `audit()` so the self-test can drive the invariant itself
+ * rather than a proxy for it. The previous guard lived only in the self-test
+ * and read `drivers.length >= 3 && drivers.includes('driver-sql')` — a
+ * hardcoded name and count inside the one script whose stated rule is that
+ * drivers come from disk and are never listed. Both would have needed editing
+ * the next time a driver is added or the packages move, which is exactly when
+ * the guard matters.
+ */
+function discoveredErrors(drivers) {
+  if (drivers.length) return [];
+  return [
+    `DISCOVERED: no driver package found under ${DRIVERS_DIR.slice(ROOT.length + 1)}/. `
+      + 'Either these packages moved and DRIVERS_DIR is stale, or they are gone. '
+      + 'Every other invariant iterates the discovered set, so a zero-driver run '
+      + 'reports OK having checked nothing — it fails here instead.',
+  ];
+}
+
 /** Every `*-conformance.ts` under spec/src/data, and the case-set exports in it. */
 function discoverCaseSets() {
   const found = [];
@@ -217,6 +247,9 @@ function audit() {
   const errors = [];
   const rows = [];
 
+  // DISCOVERED — the precondition the other three iterate over.
+  errors.push(...discoveredErrors(drivers));
+
   // CLASSIFIED — both directions between CASE_SETS and the files on disk.
   const onDisk = discoverCaseSets();
   const classified = new Set(CASE_SETS.map((c) => c.marker));
@@ -370,9 +403,12 @@ function selfTest() {
   expect('discovers TEMPORAL_CASES on disk', found.includes('TEMPORAL_CASES'));
   expect('discovers PAGINATION_UNORDERED_CASES on disk', found.includes('PAGINATION_UNORDERED_CASES'));
 
-  // Discovery must find the drivers, for the same reason.
-  const drivers = discoverDrivers();
-  expect('discovers driver packages from disk', drivers.length >= 3 && drivers.includes('driver-sql'));
+  // DISCOVERED: the invariant itself, in both directions, then against the
+  // real tree. No driver name or count is asserted — the point of the gate is
+  // that the set comes from disk.
+  expect('a discovery that found nothing is an error', discoveredErrors([]).length === 1);
+  expect('a discovery that found something is not', discoveredErrors(['driver-anything']).length === 0);
+  expect('discovers driver packages from disk', discoverDrivers().length > 0);
 
   if (failures.length) {
     for (const f of failures) console.error(`  x self-test: ${f}`);